.
QUARTERLY WEATHER REVIEW
JANUARY, FEBRUARY and MARCH 2014
THE NIGERIAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY
Issue No: 025 March 2014
EDITORIAL TEAM
Chief Editor
Mr.. Ifeanyi D. Nnodu (Director/Weather Forecasting Services)
Associate Editor
Joseph E. Alozie (General Manager/Climate Services)
Contributing Authors
Mr. Francis Dekaa
Mrs. Agatha O. Anokwu
Mr. Paul A. Ugbah
Principal Climatologist
Senior Meteorologist
Senior Meteorologist
Final Editing
Joseph E. Alozie
John Oyegade
Maimuna Bornu
Publisher
Dr. Anthony C. Anuforom
Director General / CEO
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet)
National Weather Forecasting & Climate Research Centre
Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport
Abuja Nigeria
ISSN: 2315-9813
© 2014 NiMet
Preface
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), in exercise of its mandate as
enshrined in its Act, has produced this 1st Quarter edition of the Quarterly Weather
Review 2014. The publication covers the period: January – March 2014, and
discusses the typical weather and climate variable from the eye of the synoptic
weather developments, temperature and rainfall variations, and socio-economic
implications in some of the key sectors of the economy. The publication is
intended to document the weather and climate conditions during the period in
1
review, noting that it will form a good reference material for students, researchers,
MDAs and the general public.
In January 2014, the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) hovered around 7.5DegN,
thus leaving a large part of the country under the northeasterly winds. The
southwesterly winds were restricted to the south of this region. Daytime
temperatures ranged 28 – 37DegC, rose gradually and reached 42DegC in
March 2014. At night, the temperatures rose from a range of 8.4 – 27.1DegC in
January, and closed on 23 – 27DegC in March. The lowest value recorded during
the season was 5.0DegC over Kano in January. The day was warmer than longterm average in January and March, while many parts of the south were colderthan-average in March 2014.
The migration of rainfall from the south to the north was very minimal during the
period, as most of the rainfall events were restricted to the south of the country.
On the rainfall departures from normal, we are closely monitoring the southeast
and parts of the southwest as above normal rainfall has been reported in the
areas during this first 3 months. These conditions portend drier situations
particularly in the immediate inland areas though it is too early to worry about.
It is hoped that the information contained in this edition will meet the expectations
of the public and serve as a resource material for scientists and policy makers.
Table of Content
Preface
3
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2.1
1.2.2
7
9
9
10
JANUARY 2014
Synoptic Features
Temperatures
Maximum temperature
Minimum temperature
2
1.2.3
1.3
1.4
1.4.1
1.4.2
1.4.3
1.4.4
Mean temperature
Rainfall
Socio-economic impacts
Agriculture sub-sector
Health sub-sector
Environment sub-sector
Water Management sub-sector
11
11
14
15
16
16
16
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
2.4.4
FEBRUARY 2014
Synoptic Features
Temperatures
Maximum temperature
Minimum temperature
Mean temperature
Rainfall
Socio-economic impacts
Agriculture sub-sector
Health sub-sector
Environment sub-sector
Water Management sub-sector
17
19
19
20
21
21
24
24
24
24
24
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2.1
3.2.2
3.2.3
3.3
3.4
3.4.1
3.4.2
3.4.3
3.4.4
3.5
3.6
MARCH 2014
Synoptic Features
Temperatures
Maximum temperature
Minimum temperature
Mean temperature
Rainfall
Socio-economic impacts
Agriculture sub-sector
Health sub-sector
Environment sub-sector
Water Management sub-sector
ENSO Update
Summary and Conclusion
25
27
27
28
29
29
33
33
33
33
34
34
36
1.0
JANUARY 2014
1.1
Synoptic Features
The Synoptic features during the Month of January 2014 (figure 1) comprise the
following;
3
The Equatorial Trough over Nigeria was placed at 1010-1014hPa on the average,
while the average pressure value at the center of Azores High ranged 1025 1030hPa
DR
I
MOIS
Fig 1: Some synoptic charts showing the key features in January 2014
The average pressure values at the center of St. Helena for the month was
1023.7hPa. This shows initial intensification and then weakening of the of the St.
Helena high pressure belt throughout the month. The average position of the InterTropical Discontinuity (ITD) for the month was 7.5ᵒN. This implies that the major
part of the country was under the influence of the dry northeasterly winds which
carry harmattan dust, leaving the moist south westerly grazing the coastal regions
occasionally.
1.2
Temperatures
1.2.1 Maximum Temperatures
The Month of January experienced maximum temperatures in the ranged
between 28.0 – 37.0°C across the country (Fig. 2a). The lowest maximum
temperatures of between 28.0 and 32.0°C were recorded over Katsina, Kano,
Nguru, Zaria, Bauchi Gombe and Jos in the North, Benin and Eket in the southern
part of the country. Most of the southern part of the country recorded the highest
maximum temperature values in the ranged 32.0 – 35.0°C. The highest maximum
temperature range of between 35.0 –37.0°C were observed over Yelwa, Bida,
Minna, Abuja, Lafia, Lokoja, Makurdi, Ibi, Yola, Ogoja and Awka.
14
14
Kat
Gus
Sok
Ngu
Kat
Gus
Kan
12
12
Pot
Pot
Zar
Yel
Zar
Yel
Kad
Kad
Bau
Bid
10
6
Sha
Ise
Bau
Gom
Jos
Mna
Ilr
Lok
Osh
Ado_E
Iba
Akr
Abe
Ond
I-Ode
Asa
Ikj
Enu
Bni
Awk
Yol
Legend
37
4
Laf
Ibi
8
Mkd
Ogo
Iko
Bid
10
Abj
8
Ngu
Kan
Laf
Ilr
Ibi
Lok
Osh
6
Mkd
Iba
Akr
Abe
Ond
I-Ode
Asa
Ikj
Bni
35
Yol
Abj
Sha
Ise
War
Gom
Jos
Mna
Enu
Awk
Owe
Uyo
Ogo
Iko
Legend
2.5
al Warmer
Sok
1.5
0.5
Fig2a: January 2014 maximum temperature trend
Fig 1b: Deviation of January maximum temperature
from long-term average
From figure 2b, the deviation of the maximum temperature from long-term
average show that greater part of the country experienced warmer than normal
condition, with Nguru, Yola, Katsina, Gusau, Zaria, Kaduna and Shaki being
warmer than normal by more than 1.5°C during the month under review.
However, normal conditions were observed over Sokoto and Abuja in the North,
Ikom, Uyo, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, Abeokuta, Ijebu-Ode, Ondo and Ikeja in the
South, while maximum temperatures over Benin and its environs where observed
to be colder than normal.
1.2.2 Minimum Temperatures
The minimum temperature values during the month generally ranged from 8.4 –
27.1oC across the country (Fig. 3). Lowest minimum temperatures between 8.0 –
1.6°C were observed over Katsina, Kano, Nguru, Potiskum, Zaria, Bauchi and Jos.
Trend of minimum temperature in January 2014
14
Ngu
14
12
Zar
Yel
Jos
BA
War
Lok
Phc
JO
MI
AB
Mkd
YL
JA
8
Iko
AO
Uyo
Cal
Ekt
ISIK
BD
16
OS
IB
IJ
MK
LO
OG
EN
AS
OT
WR
IK
OW
AB UY CB
PH
EK
8
Longitude (E)
Tolerance = ±0.5DegC
4
2
2
4
6
8
10
12
EB
ON AK
BE
6
Latitude (N)
LA
IL
SH
IS
23
Ogo
Enu
Awk
Owe
BI
10
Ibi
6
4
KA
Laf
Osh
Ado_E
Iba
Akr
Abe
Ond
I-Ode
Asa
Ikj
Bni
8
Legend
27.5
Yol
Ilr
ZA
YE
Mna
MA
PT
Gom
Abj
Sha
Ise
KN
12
Bau
Bid
NG
GU
Kad
10
KT
SO
Pot
Warmer
Kan
Normal
Kat
Gus
Cooler
Sok
14
2
FIGURE 3: JANUARY 2014 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
4
6
8
10
12
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
-3.5
-4
-4.5
-5
14
FIGURE 4: DEVIATION OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM LONGTERM AVERAGE
Most part of the country experienced minimum temperature ranged between
16.0 – 23.0°C, while places such as Ibadan, Abeokuta, Ijebu-Ode, Ikeja, Benin,
Warri and Eket recorded minimum temperature values of greater than 23.0°C
during the month.
5
A comparison of the month’s minimum temperatures with the long term averages
showed that warmer than normal conditions were dominant over most part of the
northeast and southwest (figure 4). Colder than normal conditions were
experienced over places such as Kano, Lokoja, Enugu, Awka and Owerri. Normal
minimum temperature conditions were however, observed in and around places
such as Sokoto, Nguru, Potiskum, Jos, Abuja, Ogoja, Uyo, and Calabar during the
month.
1.2.3 Mean Temperature
Mean temperature departures from long term normal showed colder than normal
conditions over only Kano and its environs. Normal conditions were however
observed over Sokoto, Jos, Abuja, Lokoja, Makurdi, Ogoja, Enugu, Awka, Owerri,
Uyo, Calabar, Port Harcourt and Iseyin. The remaining greater part of the country
had warmer than normal conditions, Gusau, Kaduna, Shaki and Oshogbo being
the warmest by between 1.5 – 2.5°C (figure 5).
14
Sok
Kat
Ngu
Gus
Kan
Pot
12
Zar
Yel
Kad
Bau
Bid
10
Gom
Jos
Mna
Yol
Laf
Ibi
Lok
Osh
Iba
Akr
Abe
Ond
I-Ode
Asa
Ikj
Enu
Bni
Awk
6
War
Owe
Mkd
Ogo
Iko
Normal
8
2.5
Warmer
Abj
Ilr
Sha
Ise
Uyo
Cal
4
Colder
Latitude (N)
Phc
Longitude (E)
2
2
4
6
8
10
12
1.5
0.5
-0.5
-1.5
-2.5
14
Fig5: Deviation of January mean temperature from long-term averages
1.3
RAINFALL
Rainfall amount was observed to be above 65.0mm only in the coastal areas of
the South, affecting places such as Ondo, Benin, Warri, Ikeja and Eket, with Eket
recording the highest rainfall amount of 101.4mm. Other places in the country
which recorded rainfall amount of up to 20mm were Yelwa, Akure, Asaba, Awka
Calabar and Port Harcourt. As expected, there was no rainfall in the north, while
the inland of the South had rainfall amount of between 0.0 – 10mm as shown in
Fig.6.
6
2014 JANUARY RAINFALL TREND
14
KT
SO
NG
GU
KN
12
90
MA
PT
80
ZA
YE
KA
70
BA
BI
10
JO
MI
AB
60
YL
JA
IL
SH
IS
8
AO
ISIK
BD
LA
OS
IB
IJ
40
ON AK
WR
30
OG
EN
AS
OT
BE
6
50
EB
MK
LO
20
IK
OW
AB UY CB
PH
10
EK
Rainfall amount in mm
4
2
4
6
8
10
Fig6: January rainfall trend
12
0
14
Fig7: January rainfall departure from long-term normal
The deviation of rainfall in the month from the long term values showed drier than
normal rainfall conditions over the eastern flank of the country, especially over
Ikom, Uyo and Owerri, where the rainfall was less than the long term mean by
between 10.0 - 25.0mm (Fig. 8). However, the coastal areas of Ikeja, Ondo, Benin
and Warri had excess rainfall amount compared to the long term mean by 5075mm. Little or no difference in rainfall amount was observed over Sokoto, Gusau,
Zaria, Kaduna, Ilorin, Jos, Makurdi and Ijebu-Ode when compared to the long
term mean in the month under review.
1.3.1 Information on rainfall amount, departure from long term average and rain
days for some selected stations is as presented in Table 3 below.
Table 1: A table containing information on some cases of heavy rainfall January.
City
Rainfall
Long term mean Rainfall
Departure Rain
(mm)
rainfall(mm)
from
Long
term days
mean(mm)
Warri
89.3
24.0
65.3
7
Yelwa
40.0
00.0
40.0
2
Akure
30.1
10.3
19.8
4
Ondo
78.7
07.5
71.2
7
Calabar
24.8
28.6
-3.8
1
Port Harcourt
57.2
19.4
37.8
2
Ikeja Lagos
90.7
16.0
74.7
5
From Table 1 above, it is observed that the coastal areas such as Lagos, Ondo,
Warri and Port Harcourt recorded significant rainfall amount in the month
7
compared to the January climatological mean. Warri, Ondo, Ikeja and Akure
recorded the highest rain days of 7, 7, 5 and 4 respectively during the month.
1.4
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS
1.4.1 Agriculture
Dry season farming was favoured during the month as a result warm and slightly
humid conditions particularly in the south and central parts of the country.
Products such as tomatoes, pepper, onions and vegetables were known to be in
abundance during the period..
1.4.2 Health
The warmer-than-normal day and night especially in the Northeast and parts of
the North West created less comfortable conditions. The harmattan was also
pronounced during the period. The north experienced moderate-severe cases of
heat-related ailments such as meningitis, measles and chickenpox.
Fig8: Cases of reported measles outbreak in January
(Source: Weekly Epidemiology Report, FMH, Vol.4 No.1 January 2014)
As shown in figure 8, this was most pronounced in the northern part of the country.
1.4.3 Environment
The period was prominent with dust outbreak for various times. It shares the peak
harmattan period with the preceding month, that is, December 2013. The ITD’s
mean position of about 7.5DegN favoured the prevalence of dust particles raised
from the source region and carried into the country in the dominant northeast
winds, into the larger parts of the month. A few disruptions in flight movements
were noted.
1.4.4 Water Management
The early rains in the southernmost parts of the country in January favoured the
availability of water for all uses in the areas. There was however an increased
migration of animal headsmen down-south in search of water for their animals.
8
The community clashes in many parts of the south was a result of these
movements and the attendant destruction of farmlands by the animals.
2.0
FEBRUARY
2.1
Synoptic Features
The Equatorial trough over the country in February came down slightly from its
position in the previous month, and was located at an average 1009 - 1012hPa.
The average pressure values at the center of Azores High was 1027hPa, showing
a steady intensification of the Sub-Tropical pressure belt compared to the
previous month. The St. Helena reached an average value of 1024.0hPa,
indicating a slight intensification compared to January. The mean position of the
ITD was 8.3oN, slightly moving up from its position during
14
N
KAT
SOK
NGU
GUS
KAN
POT
12
ZAR
YEL
KAD
BAU
GOM
JOS
10
BID
DRY WINDS
YOL
LAF
ILO
SHA
ISE
8
MIN
ABU
IBI
IBA
ABE
IJE
IKE
OSHD
6
OSH
LOK
USI
ADO-EKITI
AKU
OND
ASA
MAK
ENU
ABK
AWK
BEN
WAR
ITD
OGO
IKO
UMU
UYO
OWE
PHC
CAL
Latitude (N)
EKE
4
MOIST WINDS
2
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Longitude (E)
Fig9a & b: The ITD position in February 2014 and weather activities were restricted to the southernmost parts
January (figure 9a). These implies that from the beginning to the end of the month
places along the coast of south east were under Zone C weather conditions with
thunderstorm activities. About seven (7) vortices transversed the country during
the month.
2.2
Temperatures
2.2.1 Maximum Temperatures
Maximum temperature in the range 35.0 – 39.0°C were observed across the
country during February. The lowest values in the range of 29.0 – 32.0°C were
recorded over Jos and Eket while many southern cities such as Ado-Ekiti, Usi-Ekiti,
Akure, Ondo, Ijebu-Ode, Oshodi, Ikeja, Benin, Warri, Owerri, Umuahia, Uyo, Port
Harcourt and Calabar and a great portion of the north recorded temperature
values in the range of 32.0 – 35.0°C. The highest range of values, that is, 35.0 –
39.0DegC occurred in the middle of the country (figure 10).
9
N
N
14
NGU
GUS
KAT
SOK
POT
12
KAD
BAU
BAU
GOM
JOS
BID
YOL
LEGEND
BID
39
LAF
8
IBA
4
IKE
IBI
IJE
6
4
MAK
AKU
OND
ASA
OGO
ENU
AWK
WAR
EKE
32
LOK
BEN
35
CAL
YOL
LAF
OSH
IBA
IKO
OWE UYO
PHC
LATITUDE (N)
PHC
Latitude (N)
6
ABE
MIN
ABU
ILO
SHA
ISE
IBI
OSH USI
LOK
MAK
ADO-EKITI
AKU
ABE
OND
IJE
ASA
OGO
IKE
OSHD
ENU
BEN
AWK ABK
IKO
UMU
WAR
UYO
OWE
GOM
JOS
10
MIN
ABU
ILO
SHA
ISE
8
LEGEND
POT
ZAR
YEL
KAD
10
KAN
12
ZAR
YEL
NGU
GUS
KAN
1.4
0.8
0.5
Normal
SOK
Warmer than normal
KAT
Colder than normal
14
CAL
-0.5
-0.8
-1.8
LONGITUDE (E)
Longitude (E)
29
2
2
4
6
8
10
12
2
2
14
Fig10: maximum temperature trend
4
6
8
10
12
14
Fig 11: Deviation of February maximum
temperature from long-term average
F
F
From figure 11, the deviation of the maximum
temperature from long- term
i
average show that most part of the countryg experienced normal conditions.
2 Ijebu-ode, Ikeja, Benin, Warri and
Some parts of Sokoto, Iseyin, Akure Ondo, Akure,
Calabar were colder than normal while Minna,: Shaki and Iseyin in northern Oyo
D
State were warmer than normal during the month.
F
i
2.2.2 Minimum Temperatures
g
The minimum temperatures in the month generally
ranged from 13.6 – 25.0oC
2
o
across the country. The lowest range of 11.0 – 16.0
C were recorded in Jos, Kano
:
and their environs. Cities like Enugu, Abakaliki
and their environs recorded
D
temperatures in the range of 16.0 – 21.0oC. the southern
areas recorded minimum
e
o
night temperatures in the range of 21.0 – 27.0 C
v during the month.
i
a
t
i
o
n
o
f
F
e
b
r
u
a
r
10
y
m
a
x
N
N
14
KAT
KAT
SOK
LEGEND
NGU
GUS
POT
ZAR
ZAR
YEL
KAD
KAD
BAU
BAU
GOM
JOS
10
YOL
BID
LAF
ILO
SHA
ISE
8
IBA
IBI
OSH
IBA
IJE
LOK
ASA
OGO
ENU
AWK
BEN
6
MAK
AKU
OND
WAR
CAL
PHC
LATITUDE (N)
4
IKE
YOL
LAF
IKO
OWE UYO
CAL
PHC
LATITUDE (E)
6
ABE
MIN
ABU
ILO
SHA
ISE
IBI
OSH USI
LOK
MAK
ADO-EKITI
AKU
ABE
OND
IJE
ASA
OGO
IKE
OSHD
ENU
BEN
AWK ABK
IKO
UMU
WAR
UYO
OWE
LEGEND
GOM
JOS
10
MIN
BID ABU
8
KAN
12
POT
12
YEL
NGU
GUS
KAN
Normal Warmer than normal
SOK
Colder than normal
14
EKE
4
LONGITUDE (E)
LONGITUDE (E)
2.5
1.5
0.5
-0.5
-1.5
-2.5
-5
2
2
2
4
6
8
10
12
2
14
Fig 12: minimum temperature trend
Fig13:
4
6
8
10
12
14
Deviation of minimum temperature from
long-term average
From figure 13, the deviation of minimum temperature from long-term mean
shows warmer than normal in parts of the northeast, northwest, few part of north
central and southwest. The warmest nights were over Gusau and Maidugurii axis.
Cities like Kano, Jos, Minna, Bida, Iseyin, Lokoja, Enugu, Awka, Ogoja, Owerri and
Calabar Nguru observed colder than normal conditions, while minimum
temperatures were normal over the rest part of the country during the month.
2.2.3 Mean Temperature
From Figure 14, mean temperature departure from long term average map shows
that greater part of the country experience normal condition (white
background). Warmer than normal departures were observed in parts of the
northeast, some part of northwest, extending to Shaki and Oshogbo in the
southwest. Kano, Lokoja, Makurdi, Enugu, Akure, Iseyin, Owerri and Calabar
however, experienced colder than normal temperatures.
N
14
KAT
SOK
NGU
GUS
KAN
POT
12
ZAR
YEL
KAD
BAU
GOM
JOS
BID
IKE
LAF
IBI
OSH
IBA
IJE
LOK
AKU
OND
ASA
WAR
IKO
OWE UYO
PHC
LATITUDE (N)
4
OGO
ENU
AWK
BEN
6
MAK
LONGITUDE (E)
2
2
4
6
8
1.5
0.5
-0.5
CAL
Colder than normal
ABE
YOL
ILO
SHA
ISE
8
LEGEND
MIN
ABU
Normal Warmer than normal
10
10
12
-1.5
-2.5
14
Fig 14: Deviation of February 2014 mean Temperature from long-term average
11
2.3
Rainfall
Rainfall amount ranging from 0.2–132.3mm was recorded in Bauchi, Ilorin, Lokoja,
Mambilla Plateau and most parts of the South. Most of the rain occurred in Eket
and its environ that recorded the highest rainfall, range of 60.0 -135.0mm while
the rest of the south recorded 10.0 – 60.0mm of rainfall(Fig. 15).
N
14
N
14
SOK
KAT
Boko
NGU
GUS
KAN
12
Dutse
KAT
SOK
POT
12
ZAR
YEL
KAD
GOM
LEGEND
IBA
ABE
IJE
IKE
OSHD
6
OSH USI
LOK
ADO-EKITI
AKU
OND
ASA
MAK
WAR
90
ABE
ENU
AWK ABK
BEN
8
AKU
OND
OGO
ENU
BEN
IKO
6
WAR
CAL
30
4
LATITUDE (N)
IBA
MAK
60
IKO
EKE
OWE UYO
PHC
CAL
EKE
10
Longitude (E)
4
6
8
420
300
200
100
0
0
LONGITUDE (E)
10
12
-20
2
0
-10
2
2
YOL
LOK
UMU
UYO
OWE
PHC
4
OSH
IKE
OGO
MIN
ABU
ILO
SHA
ISE
IBI
Latitude (N)
8
BID
140
LAF
ILO
SHA
ISE
LEGEND
10
YOL
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
BID
MIN
ABU
Normal
BAU
JOS
10
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
14
Fig 15: February Rainfall Trend
Fig 16: Rainfall Departure in February
The rainfall departure from long term-average shows that greater part of the
country experienced normal condition. Above normal conditions prevailed over
very few areas like Abuja, Ilorin, Lokoja, Abeokuta, Ibadan, Calabar and Eket
(figure 16).
2.3.1 Information on rainfall amount, departure from long term average and rain
days for some selected stations is as presented in Table 2 below
Table 2: A table containing information on some cases of heavy rainfall February.
City
Rainfall
Long-term
Departures
from Raindays
(mm)
means (mm) long-term
means
(mm)
Akure
48.2
36.0
12.2
3
Benin
53.3
44.1
09.2
4
Calabar
61.6
53.6
08.0
3
Ibadan
57.7
38.0
19.7
4
Ijebu Ode
48.8
35.8
13.0
2
Ikeja Lagos
32.5
32.2
-0.3
4
Ilorin
29.6
9.5
20.1
1
Uyo
35.8
42.1
-6.3
4
12
The table above shows that reasonable rainfall was recorded mostly in parts of
the southeast and southwest, with slightly above departures from long-term
averages.
2.4
SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS
2.4.1 Agriculture
As rainfall is still much in the southernmost region, agricultural activities was
restricted to the region, with early planting. Agriculture is the northern parts are
expected to come on stream later as the rains advance.
2.4.2 Health
The emerging high temperatures would impact negatively on the health of
humans and animals particularly the poultry industry.
2.4.3 Environment
A drier-than-normal environment is the hallmark of this time.
2.4.4 Water Resources
Water stress is common during this period, including a strong challenge in the
hydro-electric sector as the level of water inflow into the dams dwindle further
due to high evaporation
3.0
MARCH 2014
3.1
Synoptic Features
The zone which defines the meeting point between the dry North-East (NE) trade
winds from the Sahara desert and the moist South-West (SW) trade winds from
the Atlantic ocean commonly called Inter tropical discontinuity (ITD) continued
its northward movement from a position of Latitude 9.0oN in the 3rd dekad of
February to latitude 9.3oN in the 1st dekad of March. It moved further northward
to latitude 10.4oN during the 2nd dekad and reached latitude 12.8oN in the 3rd
dekad of the month. The ITD therefore fluctuated between latitudes 9.3°N and
12.8°N which gave a mean latitudinal position of 10.8°N for the month. The
dekadal movements and average position of the ITD were all above normal
during the 1st, 2nd and 3rd dekads of the month (Fig.17).
13
Fig 17: ITD Position in March 2014
The mean sea level pressure values over the country ranged between 1003hPa –
1014hPa in the month. The mean centre value of the St. Helena high pressure
system was 1026.0hPa in the month. Daily values fluctuated between 1020.0hPa
- 1034hPa. At the 850hPa level (1500m above the ground), a total of 10 vortices
traversed the country. Their developments were partly responsible for the unusual
rainfall experienced in some parts of the country during the period.
3.2:
Temperatures
Fig 17: ITD Position in March 2014
3.2.1: Maximum Temperatures
The month recorded maximum temperatures which generally ranged from 30.0 –
42.0°C across the country (Fig. 18). The lowest values in the range of 30.0 – 34.0°C
were observed over Jos, Owerri, Ado Ekiti, Iseyin, Ibadan, Oshogbo and the
coastal areas. Temperatures were highest over the Northeast and Northwest
where values varied between 38.0 to 43.5°C. The rest of the country recorded
values in the range of 34.0 – 38.0°C
Trend of maximum temperature in March
N
14
14
Kat
Sok
Ngu
KT
SO
Gus
Kan
12
Mai
Pot
Bau
Bid
Gom
8
Abe
Ikj
Legend
Yol
BI
10
Iba
Ije
Lok
8
6
Latitude (N)
War
38.0
IK
2
IJ
Phc
Eke
2.5
EN
OG
8
WA
34.0
10
12
1
UY CA
Hotter-than-normal in many
parts of the country in March
2
14
1.5
OW
PH
14
2
AB
30.0
6
3
ON AK
4
4
3.5
IK
6
UyoCal
4
EB
MK
LO
BE
Owe
Longitude (E)
2
OS
IB
Ogo
Enu
Ben
LA
IL
SH
IS
Mak
Awk
Asa
4.5
YO
Ibi
Iko
4
JO
MN
AB
42.0
Laf
Ado
OndAku
5
BA
Min
Osh
5.5
KA
Jos
Ilo
6
GO
ZA
YE
Abj
Sha
Ise
MA
PO
Kad
10
6.5
KN
12
Zar
Yel
NG
GU
4
6
8
10
12
14
0.5
Fig18: March 2014 Maximum Temperature
Fig19: March 2014 Maximum Temperature Departure
from 1981-2010 Normal
Maximum temperatures in the month showed unprecedented warmer than
normal conditions over the north with departures reaching as high as5.0DegC in
some places such as Maiduguri, Sokoto, Nguru, Potiskum, Katsina, and Gusau.
Unusually peak temperature values in excess of 40DegC were observed for
several days in the extreme north. For example, Yola
recorded 20days with
maximum temperatures in excess of 40DegC during March 2014. Others were
Sokoto 16days, Yelwa 15days, Nguru 14days, Gusau 13days and Potiskum
11days. The significance of this is that a “heat island” was created in these areas
during those long periods, reducing the comfort level of the inhabitants
considerably. Temperature departures from long-term averages reached 3DegC
in these area during the month. Most of the Southern cities experienced 0.5 –
1.5°C colder than normal maximum temperatures shown in blue colour. Iseyin and
environs however experienced 1.9°C colder than normal conditions. (Fig.19).
3.2.2: Minimum Temperatures
Minimum temperatures in the month generally ranged from 17.0 – 27.0 oC (Fig. 20).
The highest range of values between 23.0 – 27.0°C were recorded over a greater
portion of the country ( sky blue colour) while the lowest range of values between
17.0 – 20.0°C were recorded over Kano, Zaria and environs. Enugu, Ado-Ekiti,
Calabar and other northern cities recorded minimum temperatures in the range
of 20.0 - 23.0 °C (figure 20).
March 2014 minimum temperature departures
N
14
Kat
Sok
14
Ngu
Gus
KT
SO
Kan
12
NG
GU
Zar
Yel
0.5
Mai
Pot
0
KN
12
MA
PT
-0.5
Kad
Bau
Bid
10
Gom
YE
Jos
8
Abe
Ikj
Legend
Ibi
Iba
Ije
Lok
Latitude (N)
War
AO
4
23.0
ISIK
BD
LA
IL
SH
IS
Owe
Phc
OS
IB
IJ
6
-5
-5.5
-6.5
-7.5
17.0
8
10
12
-7
OW
EK
6
-6
IK
AB UY CB
PH
20.0
4
-4.5
OG
EN
AS
OT
WR
Eke
-4
ON AK
BE
UyoCal
Longitude (E)
2
-3.5
EB
MK
LO
4
2
-3
YL
JA
8
Iko
6
MI
AB
Ogo
Enu
-2.5
JO
27.0
Mak
Awk
Asa
Ben
BI
10
Laf
Ado
OndAku
-2
BA
Yol
Ilo
Osh
-1.5
KA
Min
Abj
Sha
Ise
-1
ZA
14
2
Fig20: March 2014 Minimum Temperature
4
6
8
-8
Colder-than-normal
nights in all inland areas
10
12
-8.5
14
Fig21: Departures from long-term averages
Minimum temperatures compared with long term averages showed 0.5 – 6.5°C
colder than normal conditions over most parts of the country. Normal conditions
were observed in the coastal or southernmost areas (figure 21).
15
3.2.3 Mean Temperatures
Mean temperatures in the month showed normal conditions in most places shown
in white (figure 22). Warmer than normal conditions were observed in Katsina,
Gusau, Shaki and increasing over the Northeast. Cities such as Kano, Iseyin,
Ibadan, Abuja, Lokoja, Makurdi, Enugu, Benin, Port Harcourt, Uyo and Calabar
however observed 0.5 – 1.9°C colder than normal mean temperature conditions
during the month.
N
14
Kat
Sok
Ngu
Gus
Kan
12
Mai
Pot
Zar
Yel
Kad
Bau
Bid
10
Gom
Jos
Min
Abe
Ikj
Colder than
Warmer than
Normal
Normal
Normal
8
Legend
Yol
Abj
Laf
Ilo
Sha
Ise
Ibi
Osh
Iba
Lok
OndAku
Mak
Awk
Asa
Ije
Ogo
Enu
Ben
Iko
Latitude (N)
6
4
War
Owe
UyoCal
Phc
Longitude (E)
2
2
4
FIG22:
6
8
10
12
3.0
1.5
0.5
-0.5
-1.5
-3.0
14
DEPARTURES OF THE MEAN TEMPERATURE FROM
LONG-TERM AVERAGES
3.3: RAINFALL
Rainfall amount recorded in the month ranged from 0.0 – 380.0mm in the month
(Fig.23). Places around Abuja extending southwards to the inland areas of the
southeast and to areas around Awka, Ilorin and Shaki recorded rainfall in the
range of 10.0 -100 .0mm while southern cities in the Niger Delta region and most
of the southwest recorded 100.0 – 200.0mm of rainfall in the month. The highest
rainfall of 371.2mm was however recorded over Calabar.
March Rainfall Trend
14
KT
SO
NG
GU
KN
12
MA
PT
300
DU
ZA
YE
KA
250
BA
BI
10
JO
MI
AB
8
AO
ISIK
OS
IB
IJ
LA
200
EB
MK
LO
150
ON AK
EN
AS
AW
BE
6
YL
AE
IL
SH
IS
WR
100
OG
AB
IK
50
OW
PH
UY CB
EK
Rainfall amount in mm
4
2
4
6
8
10
Fig23: March 2014 Rainfall
12
0
14
Fig24: Departures of March rainfall from long-term means
16
Rainfall in March compared with 1981-2010 average values showed the highest
positive departures of 204.5mm in Calabar and the lowest negative departure of
1.3mm in Asaba (Table 3). The southern parts of the country experienced
predominantly wetter than normal rainfall (Fig.24), and some of the rain-events
were accompanied with strong winds as was the case of 15th March 2014 in which
there was destruction of property in the areas as shown in the satellite imageries
and picture below
Figs.25a
&
25b:
Satellite Imagery of
the rainstorm of 15th
March 2014 which
caused
extensive
destructions
of
infrastructure
in
Anambra and Ekiti
States.
Newly
constructed oil and
gas filling station at
Ukwuani,
Delta
State, torched by
the storm of 15th
March
Figs.25b:
. The month’s rainfall was observed to be an improvement over the previous
month in the Southeast, Southwest and around Abuja. It was also observed to be
higher than 2012, 2013 and the long-term averages over Abuja, and some places
in the South (Fig.26).
The total rainfall recorded in the month when compared with the last two years
and 1981 – 2010 normal shows that the amount of rainfall recorded in March 2014
was higher than 2012, 2013 and the long term average amount over Abeokuta,
Abuja, Benin, Calabar, Enugu, Ijebu-ode, Iseyin, Ogoja and Port Harcourt.
17
400
Total rainfall in March 2014, 2013, 2012 and Normal over Nigeria
300
200
100
-100
Abe
Abj
Aku
Bau
Bid
Ben
Cal
Enu
Gom
Gus
Iba
Ibi
Ikj
Ije
Ilo
Ise
Jos
Kad
Kan
Kat
Lok
Mai
Mak
Min
Ngu
Ogo
Ond
Osh
Owe
Phc
Pot
Sok
Uyo
War
Yel
Yol
Zar
0
Mar 2014RR
Mar 2013RR
Mar 2012RR
Mar 81_10 RR
Fig.26: Comparison of March 2014 with 2012, 2013 and 1981-2010 Mean
A table containing information on rainfall amount, departure from long term
average and rain days for selected stations is represented below.
Table. 3: A table containing information on some cases of heavy rainfall March.
City
Rainfall
Long
term Rainfall Departure Rain
(mm)
mean
from Long term days
rainfall(mm)
mean(mm)
Abuja
066.9
021.6
045.3
06
Makurdi
025.6
013.9
011.7
03
Enugu
120.3
052.3
068.0
09
Owerri
099.7
103.2
-03.5
09
Ogoja
098.7
033.0
065.7
05
Oshogbo
128.1
070.7
057.4
05
Akure
166.9
088.6
078.3
06
Abeokuta
087.3
064.4
022.9
09
Ikeja Lagos
076.9
067.9
009.0
07
Calabar
371.2
166.7
204.5
15
Warri
144.4
128.0
016.4
16
Table 3 shows significant positive rainfall departures or wetter than normal
conditions over Abuja, Enugu, Ogoja, Oshogbo, Akure, Abeokuta, and Calabar.
Generally, rain days increased in March compared to the previous month and
were highest (16 and 15 days respectively) over coastal cities such as Calabar
and Warri.
18
3.4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS
3.4.1 Agriculture
Rainfall amount continued to increase in the South and also advance northwards
reaching more areas in the middle of the country, thus opening up agricultural
activities in more areas. It’s a planting season and rainfall trend is seen as being
adequate to support early planting activities in the South.
3.4.2 Health
High temperatures persisting for several days in many parts of the north created
the condition for increased heat-related ailments in these States. Reports
published by the Federal Ministry of Health showed high incidents of these health
hazards in March.
3.4.3 Environment
A drier-than-normal condition following high temperatures and increased
evaporation effects in the northern areas created water stress for animal
breeding, and this has impacted negatively in the sector during the month. The
arrival of the rains in the coming months will assist the situation positively.
3.4.4 Water Management
There are prospects of water availability for most uses as the rains reach the inland
areas in the coming months.
The month witnessed rainfall activities across the country. This had some impacts
on different cities shown in Table 2.
Other impacts on Marine, Agriculture and Hydrology sub-sectors are also
discussed below.
3.5
ENSO UPDATE
Fig. 27: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring
2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer
19
The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are relatively
unchanged from the previous month. Almost all the models indicate that ENSOneutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) will persist through the rest of
the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014. This is in consonance with the provisions in
the 2014 SRP on this subject.
3.6
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
The upward movement of the major synoptic features continued slowly during
January – March 2014. The ITD reached 12.8oN in during the last decade of March
2014. The maximum temperature continued its rise, reaching the peak of 43.5°C
in parts of the far north in March. There was persistence of very temperature
values (in the range 40.0 43.5°C) for several days in the far north, thereby creating
“heat island” with extended discomfort for days. The nights were cooler in and
around Kano and the southeast, it was however very warm in the southwest and
parts of the northeast and northwest in January and February.
Rainfall is increasing gradually as expected, and wetter-than-normal conditions
have been observed in the southwest and parts of Akwa Ibom and Cross River
States, and other areas in the Niger Delta. It is expected to further move inland in
the coming months.
The amount of rainfall recorded in March 2014 was observed to be higher than
2012, 2013 and the 1981 - 2010 mean values over Abeokuta, Abuja, Benin,
Calabar, Enugu, Ijebu-ode, Iseyin, Ogoja and Port Harcourt. These areas will be
closely watched in the coming months. The start of the 2014 rainy season brought
along with it rainstorm with destructive consequences over some places in the
Southeast and Southwest.
20
For further details and enquiries, please contact:
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)
National Weather Forecasting and Climate Research Centre,
Nnamdi Azikiwe Int’l Airport, Abuja
Bill Clinton’s Drive, Abuja
21