Aylesbury Vale Housing & Economic
Development Needs Assessment
Aylesbury Vale District Council
Final Draft Report
June 2015
Prepared by
GL Hearn Limited
280 High Holborn
London WC1V 7EE
T +44 (0)20 7851 4900
glhearn.com
Aylesbury Vale Housing & Economic Development Needs Assessment, Aylesbury Vale District Council
Final Draft Report, June 2015
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Contents
Section
Page
INTRODUCTION
13
SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE
23
DEMOGRAPHIC-LED PROJECTIONS
51
AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED
71
MARKET SIGNALS
87
NEED FOR DIFFERENT SIZES OF HOMES
103
HOUSING NEEDS OF SPECIFIC GROUPS IN THE POPULATION
113
HOUSING IN AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE
135
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET ASSESSMENT
151
BASELINE ECONOMIC FORECASTS
167
LOCAL ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVERS
173
NEED FOR EMPLOYMENT LAND
181
RELATING EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TO HOUSING NEED
193
CONCLUSIONS
199
List of Figures
FIGURE 1:
OVERVIEW OF APPROACH
19
FIGURE 2:
HOUSING MARKET AREAS
20
FIGURE 3:
AYLESBURY VALE’S POPULATION, 1981-2013
24
FIGURE 4:
POPULATION PROFILE, 2013
24
FIGURE 5:
CHANGE IN POPULATION STRUCTURE IN AYLESBURY VALE,
2003-13
25
FIGURE 6:
ETHNICITY
26
FIGURE 7:
HOUSEHOLD TYPES
27
FIGURE 8:
CHANGES IN HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, 2001-11
27
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FIGURE 9:
ANNUAL GROWTH IN GVA, 1998-2013
28
FIGURE 10:
TREND IN GVA PER HEAD RELATIVE TO UK, 1997-2013
29
FIGURE 11:
GROWTH IN GVA BY SECTOR, BUCKS THAMES VALLEY LEP
29
FIGURE 12:
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, AYLESBURY VALE
30
FIGURE 13:
COMPARISON OF EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION AND TREND,
AYLESBURY VALE
33
FIGURE 14:
CHANGE IN THE STOCK OF ACTIVE ENTERPRISES, 2004-2013
36
FIGURE 15:
BUSINESS BIRTHS AND DEATHS, AYLESBURY VALE 2004-13
37
FIGURE 16:
BUSINESSES UNITS BY SIZE BAND, 2013
37
FIGURE 17:
SELF-EMPLOYMENT (% 16-64), 2013-14
38
FIGURE 18:
TRENDS IN SELF-EMPLOYMENT
39
FIGURE 19:
POPULATION AND WORKING-AGE POPULATION GROWTH,
AYLESBURY VALE
39
FIGURE 20:
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE
40
FIGURE 21:
JOBS DENSITY, 2012
41
FIGURE 22:
COMMUTING PATTERNS IN AYLESBURY VALE, 2011
41
FIGURE 23:
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (% 16-64)
45
FIGURE 24:
EMPLOYMENT RATE (% 16-64)
45
FIGURE 25:
UNEMPLOYMENT (% 16-64)
46
FIGURE 26:
TREND IN JSA CLAIMANTS
47
FIGURE 27:
SKILLS PROFILE
47
FIGURE 28:
OCCUPATIONAL PROFILE
48
FIGURE 29:
PAST AND PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH – AYLESBURY
VALE
53
FIGURE 30:
INDEXED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH, 1991-2033
56
FIGURE 31:
PAST AND PROJECTED TRENDS IN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE
– AYLESBURY VALE
57
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD FORMATION RATES BY AGE OF HEAD
OF HOUSEHOLD – AYLESBURY VALE
58
FIGURE 32:
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PAST AND PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH – AYLESBURY
VALE
65
FIGURE 34:
MIGRATION FLOWS BETWEEN LONDON AND AYLESBURY VALE
66
FIGURE 35:
PAST AND PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH – AYLESBURY
VALE (WITH LONDON ADJUSTMENT)
68
INDICATIVE INCOME REQUIRED TO PURCHASE/RENT WITHOUT
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDY
74
DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN AYLESBURY VALE,
2014
75
FIGURE 38:
OVERVIEW OF BASIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL
76
FIGURE 39:
OVERLAP BETWEEN AFFORDABLE HOUSING TENURES
85
FIGURE 40:
MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE (1998-2007)
88
FIGURE 41:
MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE (2008-2013)
89
FIGURE 42:
MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES (JAN 2013- APRIL 2014)
90
FIGURE 43:
INDEXED ANALYSIS OF SALES TRENDS, 1998 – 2012
91
FIGURE 44:
TREND IN AVERAGE PRIVATE RENTAL VALUES (2011-2014)
92
FIGURE 45:
TREND IN PRIVATE RENTAL TRANSACTIONS (SEPTEMBER 2011
TO JUNE 2014)
93
FIGURE 46:
LOWER QUARTILE AFFORDABILITY TREND (1997-2013)
94
FIGURE 47:
CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS BY TENURE, 2001-11
95
FIGURE 48:
HOUSING COMPLETIONS – AYLESBURY VALE
96
FIGURE 49:
CHANGE IN DWELLING STOCK (ESTIMATE), 2001 – 2013
97
FIGURE 50:
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD FORMATION RATES FOR THOSE
AGED 25-34 – AYLESBURY VALE
100
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS – HOUSING NEED WITH INCREASED
HOUSEHOLD FORMATION RATES OF THOSE AGED 25-34
100
FIGURE 52:
STAGES IN THE HOUSING MARKET MODEL
104
FIGURE 53:
AVERAGE BEDROOMS BY AGE, SEX AND TENURE
105
FIGURE 54:
IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ON MARKET HOUSING
REQUIREMENTS BY HOUSE SIZE, 2013 TO 2033
107
IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS ON AFFORDABLE HOUSING
NEED BY HOUSE SIZE, 2013 TO 2033
109
FIGURE 33:
FIGURE 36:
FIGURE 37:
FIGURE 51:
FIGURE 55:
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FIGURE 56:
SIZE OF HOUSING NEEDED 2013 TO 2033
109
FIGURE 57:
TENURE OF OLDER PERSON HOUSEHOLDS – AYLESBURY VALE
116
FIGURE 58:
OCCUPANCY RATING OF OLDER PERSON HOUSEHOLDS –
AYLESBURY VALE
117
FIGURE 59:
POPULATION WITH LTHPD IN EACH AGE BAND
123
FIGURE 60:
TENURE OF PEOPLE WITH LTHPD – AYLESBURY VALE
124
FIGURE 61:
POPULATION AGE PROFILE BY ETHNIC GROUP – AYLESBURY
VALE (2011)
126
FIGURE 62:
TENURE BY ETHNIC GROUP – AYLESBURY VALE
127
FIGURE 63:
OCCUPANCY RATING BY ETHNIC GROUP – AYLESBURY VALE
128
FIGURE 64:
TENURE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH DEPENDENT CHILDREN –
AYLESBURY VALE
129
OCCUPANCY RATING AND HOUSEHOLDS WITH DEPENDENT
CHILDREN
130
FIGURE 66:
TENURE BY AGE OF HRP – AYLESBURY VALE
131
FIGURE 67:
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BY AGE – AYLESBURY VALE
132
FIGURE 68:
WIDER TOWN CENTRE BOUNDARY USED FOR ANALYTICAL
PURPOSES
136
FIGURE 69:
POPULATION STRUCTURE - AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE, 2011
137
FIGURE 70:
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY - AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE, 2011
137
FIGURE 71:
OCCUPATIONAL PROFILE OF RESIDENTS - AYLESBURY TOWN
CENTRE, 2011
138
FIGURE 72:
TOWN CENTRE MOSAIC GROUPS PLAN
141
FIGURE 73:
TENURE PROFILE – AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE
143
FIGURE 74:
AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES - AYLESBURY VALE AND AYLESBURY
TOWN CENTRE
144
FIGURE 75:
SALES OF PROPERTIES BY TYPE - AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE
145
FIGURE 76:
RESIDENTIAL SCHEMES IN THE DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE, FEB
2015
146
PROFILE OF OFFICE DEALS IN AYLESBURY VALE BY SIZE, 200514
154
FIGURE 65:
FIGURE 77:
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FIGURE 78:
OFFICE FLOORSPACE TAKE-UP IN AYLESBURY VALE BY SIZE
BAND, 2005-14
154
OFFICE FLOORSPACE TAKE-UP IN AYLESBURY VALE AND
NEIGHBOURING DISTRICTS, 2005-14
155
TOTAL OFFICE FLOORSPACE TAKE-UP IN AYLESBURY VALE
AND NEIGHBOURING DISTRICTS, 2005-2014
156
FIGURE 81:
PROFILE OF OFFICE AVAILABILITY, FEBRUARY 2015
157
FIGURE 82:
OFFICE FLOORSPACE AVAILABILITY, FEBRUARY 2015
158
FIGURE 83:
OFFICE FLOORSPACE AVAILABILITY IN AYLESBURY VALE BY
QUALITY, FEBRUARY 2015
159
FIGURE 84:
INDUSTRIAL DEALS, AYLESBURY VALE 2005-14
161
FIGURE 85:
INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE TAKE-UP, AYLESBURY VALE 2005-14
161
FIGURE 86:
INDUSTRIAL TAKE-UP BY DISTRICT, 2005-14
162
FIGURE 87:
AVAILABLE INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE, FEBRUARY 2015
163
FIGURE 88:
INDUSTRIAL FLOORSPACE AVAILABILITY BY QUALITY,
AYLESBURY VALE FEBRUARY 2015
164
FIGURE 89:
PAST AND PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT – AYLESBURY VALE
168
FIGURE 90:
FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR, AYLESBURY
VALE 2013-33
170
SCENARIOS FOR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH - AYLESBURY VALE,
2013-33
180
FIGURE 92:
FORECAST TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, 1981-2033
182
FIGURE 93:
SYNTHESIS BASELINE FORECASTS – NET FTE JOBS GROWTH IN
AYLESBURY VALE (2013 – 2033)
183
SYNTHESIS FORECAST – NET CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT
FLOORSPACE BY USE CLASS IN AYLESBURY VALE, 2013-33
185
PAST AND PROJECTED CHANGES IN THE EMPLOYMENT RATE –
AYLESBURY VALE
196
OBJECTIVELY-ASSESSED HOUSING NEED IN AYLESBURY VALE
204
FIGURE 79:
FIGURE 80:
FIGURE 91:
FIGURE 94:
FIGURE 95:
FIGURE 96:
List of Tables
TABLE 1:
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TOP 10 EMPLOYMENT SECTORS, 2012
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TABLE 2:
LOCATION QUOTIENT ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, 2012
31
TABLE 3:
SECTORS WITH LQ OF OVER 1.25 IN AYLESBURY VALE DISTRICT, 2012
32
TABLE 4:
NUMBER AND CONCENTRATION OF BUSINESSES UNITS BY SECTOR,
2013
35
TABLE 5:
OUT-COMMUTING FROM AYLESBURY VALE, 2011
42
TABLE 6:
NET COMMUTING, 2011
43
TABLE 7:
WORKPLACE-BASED EARNINGS
44
TABLE 8:
DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN RESIDENTS AND WORKPLACE-BASED
EARNINGS
44
TABLE 9:
PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH, 2013-2033
52
TABLE 10:
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH, 2013-33
56
TABLE 11:
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2013-33 – 2012-BASED SNPP (AS
ADJUSTED) AND 2012-BASED HEADSHIP RATES
60
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2013-33 – 2012-BASED SNPP (AS
ADJUSTED) WITH HEADSHIP RATES TRACKING THOSE IN 2008-BASED
PROJECTIONS
61
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2013-33 – 12-YEAR MIGRATION
TRENDS AND 2012-BASED HEADSHIP RATES
63
TABLE 14:
MIGRATION BETWEEN LONDON AND AYLESBURY VALE
67
TABLE 15:
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2013-33, WITH HIGHER NET
MIGRATION FROM LONDON
68
TABLE 16:
LOWER QUARTILE SALES PRICES BY TYPE (Q1 AND Q2 – 2014)
72
TABLE 17:
LOWER QUARTILE PRIVATE RENTS BY SIZE AND LOCATION (YEAR TO
MARCH 2014)
72
TABLE 18:
MAXIMUM LHA PAYMENTS BY SIZE AND BRMA
73
TABLE 19:
MONTHLY SOCIAL RENT LEVELS, 2014
73
TABLE 20:
ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS IN UNSUITABLE HOUSING
77
TABLE 21:
ESTIMATED CURRENT NEED
78
TABLE 22:
ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED FROM NEWLY FORMING
HOUSEHOLDS (PER ANNUM)
79
SOCIAL/AFFORDABLE RENTED HOUSING SUPPLY (PER ANNUM - PAST 3
YEARS)
80
TABLE 12:
TABLE 13:
TABLE 23:
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TABLE 24:
SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING
81
TABLE 25:
ESTIMATED LEVEL OF HOUSING NEED (2013-33)
81
TABLE 26:
ESTIMATED ANNUAL HOUSING NEED AT VARIANT INCOME THRESHOLDS
82
TABLE 27:
ESTIMATED AFFORDABLE NEED BY TYPE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING
86
TABLE 28:
COMPARISON OF LOWER QUARTILE AND MEDIAN AFFORDABILITY (2013)
94
TABLE 29:
CHANGES IN OVER OCCUPIED AND HOUSES IN MULTIPLE OCCUPATION
(2001-2011)
97
TABLE 30:
ESTIMATED PROFILE OF DWELLINGS IN 2013 BY SIZE
106
TABLE 31:
ESTIMATED SIZE OF DWELLINGS NEEDED 2013 TO 2033 – MARKET
HOUSING
107
ESTIMATED SIZE OF DWELLINGS NEEDED 2013 TO 2033 – AFFORDABLE
HOUSING
108
TABLE 33:
MIX OF AFFORDABLE AND MARKET HOMES
111
TABLE 34:
OLDER PERSON POPULATION (2013)
114
TABLE 35:
PROJECTED CHANGE IN POPULATION OF OLDER PERSONS (2013 TO
2033)
115
TABLE 36:
OLDER PERSON HOUSEHOLDS (CENSUS 2011)
115
TABLE 37:
OLDER PERSON HOUSEHOLDS WITH OCCUPANCY RATING OF +2 OR
MORE BY TENURE
117
ESTIMATED POPULATION CHANGE FOR RANGE OF HEALTH ISSUES
(2013 TO 2033)
118
TABLE 39:
CURRENT SUPPLY OF SPECIALIST HOUSING FOR OLDER PEOPLE
119
TABLE 40:
PROJECTED NEED FOR SPECIALIST HOUSING FOR OLDER PEOPLE
(2013-33)
119
PROJECTED NEED FOR OLDER PERSONS ACCOMMODATION
(INCLUDING SPECIALIST HOUSING) – BY BROAD TENURE (2013-33)
121
HOUSEHOLDS AND PEOPLE WITH LONG-TERM HEALTH PROBLEM OR
DISABILITY (2011)
122
TABLE 43:
BLACK AND MINORITY ETHNIC POPULATION (2011)
125
TABLE 44:
CHANGE IN BME GROUPS 2001 TO 2011 – AYLESBURY VALE
126
TABLE 45:
HOUSEHOLDS WITH DEPENDENT CHILDREN (2011)
128
TABLE 46:
HOUSEHOLDS WITH NON-DEPENDENT CHILDREN (2011)
131
TABLE 32:
TABLE 38:
TABLE 41:
TABLE 42:
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TABLE 47:
ETHNIC PROFILE - AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE, 2011
139
TABLE 48:
HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION - AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE, 2011
139
TABLE 49:
MOSAIC POPULATION CLASSIFICATION
140
TABLE 50:
HOUSE TYPES - AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE
142
TABLE 51:
SIZES OF HOMES - AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE
142
TABLE 52:
HOUSE PRICES - AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE
144
TABLE 53:
COMPARABLE EVIDENCE, FEB 2015
147
TABLE 54:
BASELINE EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS – EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 2013-33 168
TABLE 55:
ASSESSING ANNUAL ECONOMIC GROWTH – AYLESBURY VALE (CAGRS) 168
TABLE 56:
COMPARING THE THREE FORECASTS, SECTOR GROWTH 2013-31
171
TABLE 57:
SEMLEP POTENTIAL LGF INVESTMENT PIPELINE – AYLESBURY
PROJECT RANKINGS
175
TABLE 58:
SQW ESTIMATED JOB CREATION – SILVERSTONE MASTERPLAN
176
TABLE 59:
FORECAST FTE JOB GROWTH BY B-CLASS SECTOR, 2013-33
184
TABLE 60:
SYNTHESIS FORECAST – NET LAND REQUIREMENTS TO SUPPORT
FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 2013-33
186
TABLE 61:
EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIREMENT (HA) – LABOUR DEMAND SCENARIO 187
TABLE 62:
EMPLOYMENT FLOORSPACE COMPLETIONS (SQ M), 2000-14
188
TABLE 63:
5 YEAR TREND – EMPLOYMENT LAND DELIVERY (HA)
189
TABLE 64:
10 YEAR TREND – EMPLOYMENT LAND DELIVERY (HA)
189
TABLE 65:
15 YEAR TREND – EMPLOYMENT LAND DELIVERY (HA)
190
TABLE 66:
TREND BASED REQUIREMENT (HA) FOR 20 YEAR PLAN PERIOD, 2013-33
190
TABLE 67:
COMMUTING PATTERNS IN AYLESBURY VALE, 2011
194
TABLE 68:
BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING GROWTH IN JOBS AND
RESIDENTS IN EMPLOYMENT
194
TABLE 69:
EMPLOYMENT RATES BY AGE AND SEX – AYLESBURY VALE
195
TABLE 70:
HOUSING PROVISION NECESSARY TO SUPPORT ECONOMIC GROWTH
SCENARIOS
196
RECOMMENDED MIX OF AFFORDABLE AND MARKET HOMES
205
TABLE 71:
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Quality Standards Control
The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance with our quality control
requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator.
This document must only be treated as a draft unless it is has been signed by the Originators and approved
by a Business or Associate Director.
DATE
ORIGINATORS
APPROVED
June 2015
Aled Barcroft, Planner
Justin Gardner, JGC
Nick Ireland
Planning Director
Limitations
This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose
without the prior written authority of GL Hearn; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of
this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned.
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INTRODUCTION
1.1
Aylesbury Vale District Council (AVDC) has commissioned GL Hearn and Justin
Gardner Consulting (JGC) to prepare a Housing and Economic Development Needs
Assessment (HEDNA). The purpose of the HEDNA is to assess future development
needs for housing (both market and affordable) and economic development uses (which
includes employment land and main town centre uses).
1.2
The HEDNA forms part of the evidence base which the Council will use in developing
the Vale of Aylesbury Local Plan (VALP). The HEDNA provides evidence concerning
future development needs – for housing, employment land and retail floorspace. It does
not make policy decisions regarding what levels of development should be planned for –
this is for the VALP itself.
1.3
The intention behind the HEDNA is to provide an integrated evidence base regarding
future development needs across uses, recognising for instance that job growth can
influence housing need, and that housing and population growth will influence retail
spending.
1.4
This HEDNA report deals specifically with development needs in Aylesbury Vale District.
It is to be brought together with evidence concerning development needs across the
wider Central Buckinghamshire (Central Bucks) Housing Market Area as part of the
development of a separate, but linked, study covering this wider area. This has been
commissioned and at the time of writing is under preparation.
1.5
This report considers the objectively assessed needs for development in Aylesbury Vale
specifically. These are not policy targets for new development – but one of a number of
inputs to defining what targets should be. The soundness test for local plans is that they
meet objectively assessed development needs for their areas and unmet need from
adjoining authorities where it is sustainable to do so.
1.6
The wider work being undertaken across the Central Bucks HMA and discussions with
other adjoining authorities through the Duty to Cooperate are on-going to consider what
provision may need to be made within the VALP to meet unmet needs from other areas.
1.7
Issues related to unmet needs should be treated separately from the calculation of the
District’s own Objectively Assessed Need for Housing, not least to avoid double counting.
It should also be borne in mind that should the plan meet unmet need from other areas,
in addition to the District’s OAN, this will support higher population growth in the Vale. It
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is likely that this higher housing provision would support stronger growth in the District’s
workforce.
1.8
Work to examine employment land and retail floorspace needs is being progressed and
will be reported in due course. Work to consider the need for different types of housing is
similarly being progressed.
National Policy and Guidance
1.9
The Coalition Government has reformed the policy framework for strategic planning,
particularly on issues such as housing. Regional strategies have been revoked (the
South East Plan1 was revoked in April 2013) and responsibility for planning on crossboundary issues has been returned to local authorities.
1.10
National policies for plan-making are set out within the National Planning Policy
Framework 2 .This sets out key policies against which development plans will be
assessed at examination and to which they must comply.
National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF)
1.11
The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March 2012. The
Framework sets a presumption in favour of sustainable development whereby local
plans should meet objectively assessed development needs, with sufficient flexibility to
respond to rapid change, unless the adverse impacts of doing so would significantly or
demonstrably outweigh the benefits or policies within the Framework indicate that
development should be restricted.
Housing Needs
1.12
Paragraph 47 in the Framework indicates that to significantly boost the supply of housing,
local planning authorities should use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan
meets the full objectively assessed need for market and affordable housing in the
housing market area, as far as is consistent with the policies set out in the Framework.
1.13
The NPPF highlights the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) as a key piece
of evidence in determining housing needs. Paragraph 159 in the Framework outlines
that this should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures which the
local population is likely to need over the plan period which:
1
CLG (May 2009) The South East Plan – Regional Spatial Strategy for the South East of England
2 CLG (March 2012) National Planning Policy Framework
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 Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and
demographic change;
 Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the
needs of different groups in the community; and
 Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this
demand.
1.14
Paragraph 158 of the NPPF outlines that local planning authorities should ensure that
their Local Plan is based in adequate, up-to-date and relevant evidence about the
economic, social and environmental characteristics and prospects of the area. It outlines
that they should ensure that their assessment of and strategies for housing, employment
and other uses are integrated, and that they take full account of relevant market and
economic signals. Paragraph 17 in the Framework reaffirms that planning should take
account of market signals, such as land prices and housing affordability.
Economic Development Needs
1.15
Paragraphs 18 to 22 to the NPPF set out the Government is committed to ensuring that
the planning system does everything it can to support sustainable economic growth, and
that significant weight should be placed on the need to support economic growth through
the planning system. It sets out a requirement for local planning authorities to plan
proactively to meet the development needs of businesses and support an economy fit for
the 21st Century.
1.16
The NPPF requires local authorities to set a clear economic vision and strategy for their
area in local plans, based on an understanding of the existing business needs, likely
changes in the market and any barriers to investment.
1.17
Paragraph 160 and 161 set out that local planning authorities should have a clear
understanding of business needs within the economic markets operating in and across
their area. To do this they should work with Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs), the
business community, county and neighbouring authorities to understand business needs,
likely changes in the market and barriers to investment. They should use their evidence
base to assess the land and floorspace for economic development, including the
quantitative and qualitative needs for all foreseeable types of economic activity and the
existing and future supply of land.
National Planning Practice Guidance
1.18
New Planning Practice Guidance was issued by Government in March 2014 on
‘Assessment of Housing and Economic Development Needs’. This is relevant to this
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report in that it provides clarity on how key elements of the NPPF should be interpreted,
including the approach to deriving the Objectively Assessed Need (OAN) for housing
and identifying employment land needs. The approach in this report takes account of this
Guidance.
Housing Need
1.19
The Guidance defines housing “need” as referring to ‘the scale and mix of housing and
the range of tenures that is likely to be needed in the housing market area over the plan
period – and should cater for the housing demand of the area and identify the scale of
housing supply necessary to meet this need.” It sets out that the assessment of need
should be realistic in taking account of the particular nature of that area, and should be
based on future scenarios that could be reasonably expected to occur. It should not take
account of supply-side factors or development constraints. Specifically the Guidance
sets out that:
“plan makers should not apply constraints to the overall assessment of need, such
as limitations imposed by the supply of land for new development, historical under
performance, infrastructure or environmental constraints. However these
considerations will need to be addressed when bringing evidence bases together
to identify specific policies within development plans.”
1.20
This report does thus not deal with development constraints including environmental
constraints and infrastructure. These will be taken into account by AVDC in considering
how development needs can be accommodated.
1.21
The Guidance outlines that estimating future need is not an exact science and that there
is no one methodological approach or dataset which will provide a definitive assessment
of need. However, ‘the starting point’ for establishing the need for housing should be the
latest household projections published by the Department for Communities and Local
Government (CLG). At the time of preparation of this report these the latest projections
are the 2011-based ‘Interim’ Household Projections 3 . It also outlines that the latest
population estimates and projections should be considered. The latest ONS population
projections are the 2012 Sub-National Population Projections published by ONS in May
2014. The assessment of housing need will be updated as new data is released,
including the 2012 Household Projections.
1.22
It sets out that there may be instances where the national projections require adjustment
to take account of factors affecting local demography or household formation rates, in
particular where there is evidence that household formation rates are or have been
3
CLG (April 2013) 2011-based Interim Household Projections
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constrained by supply. It suggests that proportional adjustments should be made where
the market signals point to supply being constrained relative to long-term trends or to
other areas in order to improve affordability.
1.23
Evidence of affordable housing needs is also relevant, with the Guidance suggesting
that the total affordable housing need should be considered in the context of its likely
delivery as a proportion of mixed market and affordable housing. In some instances it
suggests that this may provide a case for increasing the level of overall housing
provision.
1.24
The Guidance also indicates that job growth trends and/or economic forecasts should be
considered having regard to the growth in working-age population in the housing market
area. It sets out that where the supply of working age population that is economically
active (labour force supply) is less than the projected job growth, this could result in
unsustainable commuting patterns (depending on public transport accessibility and other
sustainable options such as walking and cycling) and could reduce the resilience of local
businesses. In such circumstances, plan makers will need to consider how the location
of new housing and infrastructure development could help to address these problems.
Economic Development Needs
1.25
The Guidance sets out that an assessment should be undertaken to identify the future
quantity of land and floorspace required for economic development uses, including both
the quantitative and qualitative needs for new development. The assessment of need is
intended to be realistic, taking account of the particular nature of that area and exploring
future scenarios only where these could realistically be expected to occur.
1.26
In understanding the current market in relation to economic and main town centre uses,
the Guidance outlines that plan makers should take account of:
 The recent pattern of employment land supply and loss to other uses (based on
planning applications);
 Market intelligence, including from local data and discussions with developers and
property agents, recent surveys of business needs or engagement with business and
economic forums;
 Market signals, such as levels and changes in rental values, and differentials
between land values in different uses;
 The existing stock of employment land, data on take-up of sites, and public
information on employment land and premises required and any evidence of oversupply and/or evidence of market failure;
 Information held by other public sector bodies and utilities in relation to infrastructure
constraints; and
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 The locational and premises requirements of particular types of business.
1.27
The Guidance states that employment land should be analysed through a simple
typology of employment land by market segment and by sub-areas, where there are
distinct property market areas within authorities. When examining the recent take-up of
employment land, consideration should be made to projections (based on past trends)
and forecasts (based on future scenarios) and identify occurrences where sites have
been developed for specialist economic uses.
1.28
The Guidance sets out that an assessment of future needs should be based on current
and robust data. Emerging sectors that are well suited to the area being covered by the
analysis should be encouraged where possible. Key evidence is expected to include:
 sectorial and employment forecasts and projections (labour demand);
 demographically derived assessments of future employment needs (labour supply
techniques);
 analyses based on the past take-up of employment land and property;
 consultation with relevant organisations, studies of business trends, and monitoring
of business, economic and employment statistics.
Overview of the Approach to considering OAN for Housing
1.29
The NPPF and Practice Guidance set out a clear approach to defining the Objectively
Assessed Need (OAN) for housing. We have sought to summarise this within the
diagram overleaf, Figure 1. This summarises the approach we have used to considering
OAN.
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SHMA Process
Overview of Approach
Market Signals
Evidence
Affordable Housing
Needs Analysis
Trend-based
Population &
Household Projections
Testing Household
Formation Rates
Testing
Migration Trends
Alternative Migration
Scenarios
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Case for Adjustments
to Improve Affordability
Unmet Needs from
Other Areas
Land Supply,
Constraints,
Sustainability
Appraisal
Objectively Assessed
Housing Need
(OAN)
Economic Growth
Prospects
Housing Target in
Plan
Aligning Housing &
Economic Strategy
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Housing and Economic Geographies
1.30
A report has been prepared by ORS and Atkins (March 2015) has considered Housing Market
Areas and Functional Economic Market Areas in Buckinghamshire and the surrounding areas. This
sets out the jointly agreed Housing Market Area (HMA) and Functional Economic Market Area
(FEMA) geographies, taking account of statistical analysis and stakeholder engagement/ feedback.
Housing Market Areas
1.31
The Study assessed existing research, commuting and migration patterns and other data (including
Broad Rental Market Areas). It initially defined separate local housing market areas (or submarkets) based on Aylesbury town, High Wycombe/ Amersham and Slough/ Maidenhead; but
concluded that these demonstrated insufficient self-containment levels to be taken forward for
strategic planning purposes.
Housing Market Areas
Source: ORS/ Atkins
1.32
The Study concluded by identifying that the northern part of Aylesbury Vale falls within a Milton
Keynes Housing Market Area (HMA). This includes both Buckingham and Winslow. The southern
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part of the District falls within a Central Buckinghamshire HMA which extends to include Princes
Risbourough, High Wycombe, Amersham and Beaconsfield. These housing market areas are
shown in Figure 2. Some western parts of the District relate more towards Oxford and are defined
as in an Oxford HMA.
1.33
The report then goes on to consider the ‘best fit’ of housing market areas to local authority
boundaries. This is important on a practical level, as key economic forecasts and demographic
projection data is not published below local authority level. ORS considers that the best fit area
provides an appropriate basis for analysing evidence and drafting policy, with which we agree.
1.34
On the basis that two thirds of Aylesbury Vale’s population falls within the Central Buckinghamshire
area, the District is ascribed to this. A ‘best fit’ Central Buckinghamshire HMA is identified as
comprising Aylesbury Vale, Chiltern and Wycombe Districts. South Bucks District is considered to
relate more to local authorities within Berkshire. The report outlines that the northern parts of
Aylesbury Vale, including Buckingham and Winslow, relate more closely in functional terms to
Milton Keynes.
Functional Economic Market Area
1.35
In defining the Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA), the ORS/ Atkins report used the
commuting analysis which informed the definition of the HMAs as a starting point, then overlaid
wider analysis relating to the transport network, local property markets, sectoral composition, supply
chains, retail catchments and administrative geography.
1.36
The report identifies three FEMAs which cut across Aylesbury Vale:
 Milton Keynes FEMA – which includes Buckingham, Winslow and the northern part of the Vale;
and
 Central Buckinghamshire FEMA – which includes Aylesbury Town, Wycombe and Chiltern
Districts, together with Beaconsfield and the northern part of South Bucks; and
 Oxfordshire FEMA – which includes the western part of Aylesbury Vale including Haddenham.
1.1
The distinction is principally based on analysis of commuting flows. However the report also
identifies an economic distinction between the northern and southern parts of Aylesbury Vale
District in a number of other ways.
1.2
The northern parts of the District are identified as having links to Milton Keynes, both in terms of
commuting for employment and for retail/ services. A distinct economic structure is also identified,
with the northern part of the District seeing a greater level of industrial/ distribution space; and
having a concentration of employment in high tech manufacturing. It identifies this area as forming
part of a wider Motorsport cluster.
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1.3
Within the Central Buckinghamshire FEMA, a separate sub-area is identified focused on Aylesbury
and covering the southern part of the District. This reflects the catchment area of Aylesbury as a
focus for retail/ services, but also the economic structure – with a concentration of employment in
public administration, ICT and heath. The report notes a weaker office market in this sub-area
compared to other parts of the Central Buckinghamshire FEMA.
1.4
The ORS/ Atkins Report identifies that whilst recognising these external links/ commuting flows, for
analytical purposes a “best fit” to local authority boundaries should be used. Aylesbury Vale is
allied most closely to the other Central Buckinghamshire authorities, with the best fit to the FEMA
defined as:
 Aylesbury Vale;
 Chiltern; and
 Wycombe.
1.5
In this section of the report we will therefore benchmark the Vale’s economy with this Central
Buckinghamshire area, as well as with Milton Keynes. This reflects the functional links between
different parts of the District and areas outside of it.
Report Status and Structure
1.6
This report deals specifically with the housing and economic development needs of Aylesbury Vale
District. This is intended to be brought together with analysis of dynamics and development needs
across the wider HMA and FEMA through the preparation of a Housing & Economic Development
Needs Assessment (HEDNA) for Central Bucks.
1.7
The remainder of this report is structured as follows:
 Section 2: Socio-Economic Baseline;
 Section 3: Demographic-led Projections;
 Section 4: Affordable Housing Need;
 Section 5: Market Signals;
 Section 6: Need for Different Sizes of Homes;
 Section 7: Housing Needs of Specific Groups in the Population;
 Section 8: Housing in Aylesbury Town Centre;
 Section 9: Commercial Property Market Assessment;
 Section 10: Baseline Economic Forecasts;
 Section 11: Local Economic Growth Drivers;
 Section 12: Need for Employment Land;
 Section 13: Relating Employment Growth to Housing Need;
 Section 14: Conclusions.
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE
2.1
This section of the report considers the structure of the District’s population, its economy and
business base; and labour market dynamics.
Geography and Transport Links
2.2
Aylesbury Vale is a large District (900 km 2 in size) which is mainly rural in character. The largest
settlements are Aylesbury (74,750 population, 2011), Buckingham (12,890), Wendover (7,700),
Winslow (4,400) and Haddenham (4,390) 4. Aylesbury is by far the largest town.
2.3
The A41 provide a dual carriageway link from the M25 to Aylesbury, and continues west through
the District to Bicester. The A418 runs from Leighton Buzzard to Aylesbury and on past
Haddenham to Thame and towards Oxford. The A413 runs north-south through the District from
High Wycombe to Aylesbury and on to Winslow and Buckingham.
2.4
The A421 runs east-west through the north of the District running from the A43 near Brackley to
Buckingham and east to Milton Keynes. Silverstone lies close to the A43. Highways England
announced in its December 2014 Road Investment Strategy that it would examine the case for an
expressway link between Cambridge, Milton Keynes and Oxford – which would include
improvements to the A421 through the District.
2.5
There are rail stations at Wendover, Stoke Mandeville, Aylesbury and Aylesbury Vale Parkway
which are on the Chiltern rail line to London Marylebone. East-West rail will link this north to
Winslow and Milton Keynes; and provide a link from Winslow to Banbury and Oxford.
Population and Demographic Structure
2.6
Aylesbury Vale’s population totalled 181,100 persons in mid-2013 5 . Figure 3 indicates how
Aylesbury’s population has changed since 1981. The District’s population has grown fairly steadily
during this period, growing on average by 0.9% per annum. It experiencing a slight slowing in the
early 2000s, but in recent years the rate of growth has increased with a growth rate of 1.2% per
annum achieved over the 2009-13 period.
4
5
Built-Up Area Population, ONS 2011 Census
ONS 2013 Mid-Year Population Estimates
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Aylesbury Vale’s Population, 1981-2013
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
100,000
Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates
2.7
Aylesbury Vale’s population structure is fairly similar to that of the Central Bucks FEMA as a whole.
The District has a slightly higher proportion of people aged 25-59, and lower levels aged over 65.
% Population
Population Profile, 2013
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Aged 85 and over
Central Bucks - Female
Aged 80 - 84 years
Central Bucks - Male
Aged 75 - 79 years
Aylesbury Vale - Female
Aged 70 - 74 years
Aged 65 - 69 years
Aged 60 - 64 years
Aged 55 - 59 years
Aged 50 - 54 years
Aged 45 - 49 years
Aged 40 - 44 years
Aged 35 - 39 years
Aged 30 - 34 years
Aged 25 - 29 years
Aged 20 - 24 years
Aged 15 - 19 years
Aged 10 - 14 years
Aged 5 - 9 years
Aged 1 - 4 years
Aged under 1 year
Aylesbury Vale - Male
Source: ONS 2013 Mid-Year Population Estimates
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2.8
Figure 5 shows how the population structure has changed over the last decade (2003-13).
Population has grown in all age groups over 45. As the graph shows, this is partly a reflection of the
age structure of the population in 2003. The population aged 15-29 has also grown, as has that
aged under 9. In other age groups the population has fallen.
Change in Population Structure in Aylesbury Vale, 2003-13
16,000
Population by Age
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
2003
6,000
2013
4,000
2,000
0
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates
2.9
The ethnic composition of the District’s population differs from that of Central Bucks as a whole.
Aylesbury Vale has a larger proportion of respondents identifying as ‘White, British’ with 85% of
responses, which is more in line with proportions seen across the South East region. Other than
‘White, British’ there are relatively large proportions of respondents identifying as ‘White; Other
White’ and ‘Asian/Asian British; Pakistani’.
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Ethnicity
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
Aylesbury Vale
Central Bucks
South East
England
Other Ethnic Group; Any Other Ethnic Group
Other Ethnic Group; Arab
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; Other Black
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; Caribbean
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British; African
Asian/Asian British; Other Asian
Asian/Asian British; Chinese
Asian/Asian British; Bangladeshi
Asian/Asian British; Pakistani
Asian/Asian British; Indian
Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; Other Mixed
Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Asian
Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Black African
Mixed/Multiple Ethnic Groups; White and Black Caribbean
White; Other White
White; Gypsy or Irish Traveller
White; Irish
White; English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British
Source: Census 2011
Households
2.10
The proportional mix of different household types in Aylesbury Vale is similar to that of
Buckinghamshire as a whole. Figure 7 shows that 25% of households in the District are single
person households which is below the national average of 30%. 32% of households have
dependent children, which is above the national average of 29%. 37% of households comprise a
couple with no dependent children, whilst the national average is 34%.
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Household Types
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Aylesbury Vale
Central Bucks
South East
England
Multi-Person Household; Other
Multi-Person Household; All Full-Time Students
Lone Parent Household; No Dependent Children
Lone Parent Household; With Dependent Children
Cohabiting Couple Household; No Dependent Children
Cohabiting Couple Household; With Dependent Children
Same-Sex Civil Partnership Couple Household; No Dependent Children
Same-Sex Civil Partnership Couple Household; With Dependent Children
Married Couple Household; No Dependent Children
Married Couple Household; With Dependent Children
One Person Household
Source: Census 2011
2.11
Figure 8 outlines how the composition of households by type has changed over the 2001-11 period.
Over the decade the number of lone parent households increased, as did numbers of other
households. The strongest growth in absolute terms was of single person households.
Changes in Household Composition, 2001-11
One Person
Couple with Dependent Children
Couple with Non-Dependent Children
Couple with No Children
Lone Parent with Dependent Children
Lone Parent with Non-Dependent Children
Other Households
2001
2011
% Change
15696
19898
4348
14072
2972
1665
3646
17612
16831
4322
14430
3955
2140
4487
12.2%
-15.4%
-0.6%
2.5%
33.1%
28.5%
23.1%
Source: Census 2011
2.12
We would expect the growth in single person households to relate to the ageing of the population
over the period.
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Economy
2.13
Aylesbury Vale forms part of two Local Enterprise Partnerships. Buckinghamshire Thames Valley is
a £14.0 billion economy, measured in terms of estimated Gross Vale Added (GVA) in 2013. GVA
measures the size of a local economy in terms of the total value of goods and services produced.
The South East Midlands economy is much larger, with an estimated GVA of £43.8 billion.
2.14
Figure 9 benchmarks past performance, in terms of annual GVA growth, over the period since 1998.
Over the past 15 years, GVA has grown at a national and regional level by 4.2% and 4.3% pa
respectively. SEM LEP has seen a modestly higher annual rate of growth at 4.3%; however growth
across Buckinghamshire has been slightly lower at 4.2% pa.
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
-2.0%
1998
% Annual Growth in GVA - Current
Basic Prices
Annual Growth in GVA, 1998-2013
-4.0%
Buckinghamshire Thames Valley
South East Midlands
South East
UK
Source: ONS/ GLH
2.15
GVA per head is a measure of the value added within the economy. In 2013, GVA per head in the
Buckinghamshire Thames Valley LEP was 17% above the national average. In contrast in the SEM
LEP area, GVA per head was 7% above the national average.
2.16
Relative to the national average, GVA per head in Bucks Thames Valley fell between 2000-2007.
However since the recession, the sub-regional economy has performed better in relative terms,
regaining some of the lost ground. GVA per head stood at £27,300 in 2013.
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Trend in GVA per Head relative to UK, 1997-2013
130.0
UK = 100
125.0
120.0
115.0
Buckinghamshire Thames
Valley
110.0
105.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
100.0
Source: ONS/ GLH
2.17
Data at a LEP level on GVA per sector is published. We have analysed this by five year periods for
Bucks Thames Valley LEP to consider what sectors have been driving wealth creation. This is
shown in Figure 11. Recent growth (since 2007) has been driven in particular by:
 Real estate activities;
 Professional and administrative services;
 Wholesale, Accommodation and Food.
Growth in GVA by Sector, Bucks Thames Valley LEP
3000
Arts, Recreation & Other Services
Change in GVA (£ million)
2500
Public Admin, Education & Health
2000
Professional & Adminstrative
Real Estate
1500
Finance & Insurance
1000
Information & Communications
Wholesale, Accommodation & Food
500
Construction
Manufacturing
0
1997-02
-500
2002-7
2007-12
Mining, Utilities
Agriculture
-1000
Source: ONS/ GLH
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2.18
Total employment in the District stood at 84,900 in 2012. This was -4% below that achieved at the
peak of the previous economic cycle in 2008, but a healthy 9.9% up on a decade previously
(compared to 5.7% growth across the South East and 5.5% nationally). As Figure 12 indicates,
employment levels can however be variable year-on-year, but show a generally upward trend.
Total Employment, Aylesbury Vale
95.0
Total Employmenet ('000s)
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
50.0
Source: CE/ GLH
2.19
Looking back over the longer-term since 1981, employment growth in Aylesbury Vale has been very
similar to that seen across the South East region. Of CE’s 45 sectors, the top 10 in terms of total
employment are shown in Table 1. The largest sectors in many areas include education, health and
retail. Business support services stands out as a notably large sector within Aylesbury Vale.
Table 1:
Top 10 Employment Sectors, 2012
Employment (‘000s), AVDC
38 Business support services
2002
5.8
2012
8.7
Change
2.9
40 Education
6.4
7.9
1.5
23 Retail trade
7.3
6.9
-0.4
41 Health
4.6
5.8
1.2
20 Construction
5.6
5.8
0.2
39 Public Administration
5.1
5.2
0.1
22 Wholesale trade
4.5
4.3
-0.2
42 Residential & social
3.2
4.2
1.0
29 Food & beverage services
3.2
3.6
0.5
37 Other professional services
1.2
2.8
1.6
Source: CE/ GLH
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2.20
The table also shows jobs changes over the 2002-12 decade. It indicates notable growth in
business support services, other professional services and education (in absolute terms).
2.21
We have next sought to group the sectors to provide a broader profile of the District’s economic
structure. A location quotient analysis has then been used to benchmark this against the profile
across the South East and UK. Location quotients are used to compare the relative share of
employment in different areas. A location quotient (LQ) of 1.0 indicates that the share of
employment in Aylesbury Vale is consistent with that across the wider geography. An LQ of over 1
indicates a greater share of employment in the District; with an LQ of less than 1.0 showing a lower
proportion of employment in comparative terms.
2.22
The agricultural sector stands out as having an above average representation in terms of
employment, but this is normal for large rural districts. Public administration and business support
services are strongly represented in the District. The concentration of public administration
employment most likely reflects the presence of District Council and County Council employment in
Aylesbury.
Table 2:
Location Quotient Analysis of Economic Structure, 2012
Employment
(‘000s) in
Aylesbury
Vale
1.5
% Total
Employment
in Aylesbury
Vale
1.8%
Manufacturing
6.5
Utilities
LQ vs. SE
LQ vs. UK
1.5
1.1
7.6%
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.9%
0.9
0.9
Construction
5.8
6.8%
1.1
1.1
Motor Vehicle Trade
1.8
2.1%
1.1
1.2
Wholesale, Warehousing, Transport
7.0
8.2%
0.9
1.0
Retail Trade
6.9
8.1%
0.9
0.8
Accommodation & Food
4.3
5.1%
0.8
0.8
Media, IT
2.8
3.3%
0.6
0.9
Professional Services
19.4
22.8%
1.0
1.1
Business Support Services
8.7
10.3%
1.3
1.3
Public Administration
5.2
6.1%
1.4
1.2
Education
7.9
9.3%
1.0
1.1
Health
5.8
6.8%
1.1
1.0
Residential & Social Care
4.2
4.9%
0.9
0.9
Arts, Recreation
2.4
2.8%
0.9
1.0
Other Services
2.8
3.3%
1.1
1.2
Agriculture, Mining
Source: CE/ GLH
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2.23
Using the data at the full 45 sector level, we can identify those sectors which have a level of
employment that is 25% or more higher than seen across the South East. These are shown below.
2.24
The analysis highlights at a more detailed level, a concentration of employment in:
 Other Transport Equipment (particularly in the north of the District);
 Food and drink manufacturing;
 Agriculture;
 Printing and Recording;
 Manufacture of Machinery;
 Public administration (focused on Aylesbury);
 Electronic manufacture;
 Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products; and
 Business support services.
2.25
It highlights the importance of the rural economy, of manufacturing and of public administration and
business support functions to the District’s employment base.
Table 3:
Sectors with LQ of over 1.25 in Aylesbury Vale District, 2012
Sector
16 Other trans. equipment
LQ vs. SE
2.81
3 Food, drink & tobacco
1.67
1 Agriculture etc
1.64
6 Printing & recording
1.59
14 Machinery, etc
1.46
39 PAD
1.42
19 Water, sewerage & waste
1.41
12 Electronics
1.33
10 Non-metallic min. prods.
1.30
38 Business support services
1.26
Source: CE/ GLH
2.26
AVDC’s Economic Development Strategy identifies a number of niche local sector strengths,
including:
 High performance engineering;
 Rehabilitation and telehealth technologies;
 Food and drink manufacturing; and
 ICT.
2.27
In Figure 13 we have brought together an analysis of sectors which are strongly or less strongly
represented in the District (relative to the South East region) with an analysis of whether
employment in the sector has been stable, or has grown/ declined over the 2002-12 decade.
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Comparison of Employment Concentration and Trend, Aylesbury Vale
Falling Employment
Strong
Representation
Stable Employment
Growing Employment
3 Food, drink & tobacco
16 Other trans. equipment
6 Printing & recording
1 Agriculture etc
14 Machinery, etc
39 PAD
19 Water, sewerage & waste
10 Non-metallic min. prods.
12 Electronics
22 Wholesale trade
38 Business support services
4 Textiles etc
37 Other professional services
35 Head offices & manag. cons.
45 Other services
20 Construction
43 Arts
41 Health
21 Motor vehicles trade
13 Electrical equipment
40 Education
11 Metals & metal prods.
33 Real estate
23 Retail trade
5 Wood & paper
42 Residential & social
24 Land transport
29 Food & beverage services
44 Recreational services
34 Legal & accounting
17 Other manuf. & repair
30 Media
36 Archit. & engin. services
28 Accommodation
27 Warehousing & postal
32 Financial & insurance
15 Motor vehicles, etc
31 IT services
8 Chemicals, etc
25 Water transport
2 Mining & quarrying
9 Pharmaceuticals
7 Coke & petroleum
Weak
Representation
2.28
18 Electricity & gas
Those sectors which are in the top right are those which are potentially best placed to grow – with a
concentration of employment and also a history of growing. These include:
 Other Transport Equipment;
 Electronic manufacture;
 Business Support Services;
 Other Professional Services;
 Head Office and Management Consulting.
2.29
Those on the top left are those in which there are risks, in that there is a concentration of
employment locally but employment levels are falling. These include traditional manufacturing
activities and wholesale.
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2.30
On the bottom right are sectors in which employment is growing, but are not that well represented.
These might represent areas in which there is an opportunity to promote growth – this includes a
number of professional service activities.
2.31
The profile of employment change in the District over the 2002-12 decade has been of falling
employment in:
 more traditional manufacturing sectors;
 cultural and leisure and related activities; and
 other services.
2.32
This has been offset by growth in a range of sectors, but particularly:
 Professional and business services;
 Education;
 Residential and social care; and
 Motorsport.
2.33
Overall growth in jobs has particularly been driven by professional and business services. This is
likely to include both small home-based businesses, and those requiring office floorspace.
Business Base
2.34
The ONS Inter-Departmental Business Register identifies 8,590 enterprises in Aylesbury Vale
District in 2013, with a total of 9,300 local units (recognising that some businesses may have more
than one business location).
2.35
Table 4 below assesses the stock of businesses units by sector. It compares the composition of
businesses to the County as well as regional and national trends. Using a location quotient analysis,
the evidence suggests a concentration of businesses in the following sectors in comparative terms:
 Agriculture;
 Public administration.
2.36
Milton Keynes in comparison has a stronger business base in information and communications; as
well as a higher proportion of businesses than in Aylesbury Vale in retail and leisure reflecting its
function as a higher order retail centre.
2.37
Relative to the Central Bucks FEMA, Aylesbury Vale has a higher proportion of agricultural
businesses; and slightly higher proportions of businesses in healthcare, the motor trade sector,
transport and storage, and public administration.
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Table 4:
Number and Concentration of Businesses Units by Sector, 2013
710
7.6%
Central
Bucks
FEMA
7.6%
545
5.9%
5.9%
4.6%
5.2%
5.8%
1.1
Construction
1,010
10.9%
10.9%
8.6%
11.1%
10.2%
1.0
Motor trades
300
3.2%
3.2%
2.7%
2.9%
3.0%
1.1
Wholesale
460
4.9%
4.9%
5.4%
4.5%
4.7%
1.1
Retail
685
7.4%
7.4%
9.4%
9.6%
10.9%
0.8
Transport & storage
(inc. postal)
Accommodation &
food services
Information &
communication
Finance & insurance
255
2.7%
2.7%
3.9%
2.9%
3.2%
0.9
370
4.0%
4.0%
5.1%
5.7%
6.4%
0.7
765
8.2%
8.2%
13.5%
9.0%
6.6%
0.9
160
1.7%
1.7%
2.6%
2.3%
2.5%
0.8
Property
285
3.1%
3.1%
3.4%
3.4%
3.6%
0.9
1,710
18.4%
18.4%
17.0%
17.3%
14.7%
1.1
695
7.5%
7.5%
8.0%
7.6%
6.8%
1.0
90
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.7%
1.0%
1.4
210
2.3%
2.3%
2.5%
2.5%
2.6%
0.9
Health
415
4.5%
4.5%
5.3%
5.3%
5.8%
0.8
Arts, entertainment,
recreation and other
services
TOTAL
635
6.8%
6.8%
6.1%
7.0%
6.8%
1.0
9,300
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
1.0
Aylesbury
Vale
Agriculture, forestry &
fishing
Production
Professional,
scientific & technical
Business
administration and
support services
Public administration
and defence
Education
Milton
Keynes
South
East
UK
LQ vs
SE.
1.4%
2.9%
5.6%
2.6
Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register
2.38
ONS Business Demography data can be used to record how the business base has changed. It
include businesses which may fall below the VAT threshold. The ONS Business Demography data
indicates that the stock of enterprises in the District has grown by 7% over the previous decade
(2004-13).
2.39
Figure 14 shows how the stock of businesses has grown over the last decade (2004-13) in
comparator areas and Milton Keynes. Milton Keynes has seen strong growth in the business base
(21%). Growth in Aylesbury Vale has been similar to that of the wider Central Bucks FEMA, but this
has fallen short of both regional and national averages (10% and 13% growth respectively over this
period).
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2.40
Growth in the stock of businesses has evidently been affected by wider economic conditions; and
this is why the chart shows no real net growth over the 2008-12 period. However the most recent
data from 2013 suggests that growth in the stock of enterprises has returned (as wider economic
conditions improve).
Change in the Stock of Active Enterprises, 2004-2013
1.3
Index (2004=1)
1.2
1.1
Aylesbury Vale
Central Bucks FEMA
1
Milton Keynes
South East
0.9
UK
0.8
0.7
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Source: ONS Business Demography Statistics
2.41
Figure 15 sets out statistics for births and deaths of businesses in Aylesbury Vale. It indicates that
business birth rates fell on the onset of the recession in 2009, whilst deaths increased. Deaths
exceeded births between 2009-2012 (linked to wider economic conditions), but in 2013 the situation
turned around with a notable increase in business start-ups (to levels exceeding those seen in any
other year since 2004), whilst deaths fell.
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Business Births and Deaths, Aylesbury Vale 2004-13
1,200
1,000
800
Births
600
Deaths
400
200
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: ONS Business Demography Statistics
2.42
Figure 16 profiles the sizes of businesses. There are a high proportion of micro-businesses in the
District, with 76% of businesses having between 0-4 employees (compared for instance to 71%
across the South East). A high proportion of micro-businesses is a characteristic of the FEMA more
widely.
Businesses Units by Size Band, 2013
% Businesses by Employees
100%
95%
1,000 +
90%
500 - 999
85%
250 - 499
80%
100 - 249
50 - 99
75%
20 - 49
70%
10 - 19
65%
5-9
0-4
60%
Aylesbury
Vale
Central
Bucks FEMA
Milton
Keynes
South East
UK
Source: Inter-Departmental Business Register
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2.43
There are 95 business units in the District with over 100 employees. Of these 70 have between
100-249 staff, 20 have between 250-499 staff and there are 5 businesses units with over 1,000 staff.
2.44
Levels of self-employment in the District are above regional and national averages. Based on the
last three years of data from the Annual Population Survey, an estimated 11.5% of residents aged
16-64 are self-employed. This is marginally below the 13.0% self-employed across the FEMA.
Self-Employment (% 16-64), 2013-14
14.0
12.0
13.0
11.5
10.4
10.0
9.2
7.3
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Aylesbury Vale
Central Bucks
FEMA
Milton Keynes
South East
England & Wales
Source: Annual Population Survey
2.45
Trends in self-employment are shown below (using three year moving averages). Self-employment
peaked in the District towards the end of the last economic cycle in 2007-8 at almost 13%; but fell
during the recession. Since 2011/12 it has started once again to improve.
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Trends in Self-Employment
14.0
% Population 16-64
13.0
12.0
11.0
Aylesbury Vale
10.0
Central Bucks FEMA
Milton Keynes
9.0
South East
8.0
England & Wales
7.0
6.0
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2008-9
2007-8
2006-7
2005-6
Source: Annual Population Survey
Labour Market
2.46
Aylesbury Vale has a population of 181,100 in 2013, of which 115,000 are aged between 16-64
(63.5%). As Figure 19 below shows, the overall population and the population aged 16-64 have
both grown over the last 15 years – but the working-age population has grown at a lower rate, with
stronger overall population growth reflecting increasing longevity.
Population and Working-Age Population Growth, Aylesbury Vale
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
Total
Aged 16 - 64
120,000
100,000
80,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates
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2.47
The District has a high proportion of people aged in their 40s and 50s (relative to other age groups).
This bulge in the District’s population will however move towards retirement ages over the next 20
years. The number of younger residents is lower, but numbers of people in their 20s and under 5
have both been growing over the last decade; as have those in all age groups over 56.
Population Age Structure
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
2003
6,000
2008
2013
4,000
2,000
0
0 to 5 to 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+
4 9 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to
14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84
Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates
2.48
Jobs density statistics describe the relationship between the number of jobs in a local authority area
and the resident population aged 16-64. Aylesbury Vale (and the FEMA more widely) have a
relatively low jobs density (0.73), which is particularly a reflection of relative significant net outcommuting (given that employment rates are high). In contrast the jobs density data points to net incommuting to Milton Keynes and London.
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Jobs Density, 2012
1.20
0.98
1.00
0.92
0.83
0.80
0.73
0.73
Aylesbury
Vale
Chiltern
0.81
0.79
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Milton
Keynes
Wycombe South East
London
England &
Wales
Source: NOMIS
2.49
The data shows that there are around 20% more people who live in Aylesbury Vale District (and are
working) than currently work in the area. Aylesbury Vale therefore sees a significant level of net outcommuting.
Commuting Patterns in Aylesbury Vale, 2011
Persons
Live and work in District
Home workers
No fixed workplace
Out-commute
In-commute
Work offshore or abroad
Total working in District
Total living in District (and working)
Commuting ratio
35,881
12,395
7,718
35,025
19,872
232
75,866
91,251
1.20
Source: 2011 Census
2.50
Table 5 outlines the main commuting destinations of those commuting out of Aylesbury Vale to
work. The greatest commuting outflow is to London (5,900 persons) followed by Milton Keynes and
Wycombe. There is also an outflow of more than 2,000 persons daily other adjoining areas –
Dacorum, South Oxfordshire, Cherwell and Chiltern, but as a proportion of the total resident
workforce these flows are more modest.
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Table 5:
Out-Commuting from Aylesbury Vale, 2011
London
Milton Keynes
Wycombe
Dacorum
South Oxfordshire
Cherwell
Chiltern
Central Bedfordshire
Oxford
South Northamptonshire
Other South East
Other East of England
Other East Midlands
Numbers
Commuting
Out
% OutCommuters
% District's
Workforce
5,922
4,945
3,680
2,720
2,622
2,160
2,141
1,593
1,445
807
4,850
2,852
501
16.9%
14.1%
10.5%
7.8%
7.5%
6.2%
6.1%
4.5%
4.1%
2.3%
13.8%
8.1%
1.4%
6.5%
5.4%
4.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.4%
2.3%
1.7%
1.6%
0.9%
5.3%
3.1%
0.5%
Source: 2011 Census
2.51
Overall there is net out-commuting from the District of just over 15,000 persons per day. Table 6
profiles net flows between Aylesbury Vale and other areas. This shows net commuting flows. The
most significant net flows are to London and Milton Keynes. There is however a net commuting flow
from Aylesbury Vale to most adjoining areas with the exception of Central Bedfordshire and South
Northamptonshire. There is also a net out-flow to Oxford.
2.52
The commuting flows principally reflect the geography of the District, whereby significant parts of
the District are nearer to employment centres in adjoining areas – such as Bicester, Thame or
Milton Keynes – than they are to Aylesbury.
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Table 6:
Net Commuting, 2011
Commuting
Out from
Aylesbury Vale
Commuting
into Aylesbury
Vale
Net
Commuting
(+ = out / - = in)
5,922
4,945
3,680
2,720
2,622
2,160
2,141
1,593
1,445
807
878
2708
2094
1634
1586
1582
1084
2159
404
1296
5,044
2,237
1,586
1,086
1,036
578
1,057
-566
1,041
-489
29%
13%
9%
6%
6%
3%
6%
4,850
2,852
501
2,816
1,288
694
2,034
1,564
-193
12%
9%
London
Milton Keynes
Wycombe
Dacorum
South Oxfordshire
Cherwell
Chiltern
Central Bedfordshire
Oxford
South
Northamptonshire
Other South East
Other East of England
Other East Midlands
% of Net
Outflow
6%
Source: 2011 Census
2.53
Whilst net out-commuting from the District is partly a function of geography, it is also influenced by
the nature or quality of jobs available in other employment centres. In general there is a relationship
between earnings and commuting, where those in higher paid roles can afford to commute longer
distances whereas those in lower paid jobs tend to live closer to their place of work.
2.54
Workplace earnings are set out in Table 7. Gross weekly earnings in Aylesbury Vale are 7.3%
below the South East average and 3.1% below the national average. In particular we see a strong
earnings differential with London (£155.80 per week), and a notable differential with Oxford (£84.20)
and Milton Keynes (£54.40).
2.55
The workplace earnings data suggests that GVA per job (as a measure of the productivity of the
Vale’s economy) is likely to be somewhat below regional and sub-regional averages.
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Table 7:
Workplace-based Earnings
Gross Weekly Pay (£)
Pay differential to Aylesbury Vale
504.7
553.3
554.8
559.1
588.9
550.1
524.5
479.3
660.5
541.4
520.3
9.6%
9.9%
10.8%
16.7%
9.0%
3.9%
-5.0%
30.9%
7.3%
3.1%
Aylesbury Vale
Chiltern
Wycombe
Milton Keynes
Oxford
South Oxfordshire
Dacorum
Central Bedfordshire
London
South East
England & Wales
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
2.56
Where earnings of residents are on average higher than those of working in an area, the suggestion
is that there are residents commuting out to higher paid jobs. Economic dynamics mean that we
often find this in areas in the South East which are close to or within commuting distance of London.
2.57
On average, residence-based earnings are 11% above workplace-based earnings in the District.
The differential is similar in Wycombe (but higher at 25% in Chiltern). Workplace-based earnings in
Milton Keynes are however higher than those of residents, suggesting some in-commuting to higher
paid jobs in the town.
Table 8:
Differential between Residents and Workplace-based Earnings
Aylesbury Vale
Chiltern
Wycombe
Milton Keynes
South East
England & Wales
Workplace-based
Residence-based
Differential
£504.7
£553.3
£554.8
£559.1
£541.4
£520.3
£562.4
£690.3
£618.8
£517.5
£567.0
£521.2
£57.7
£137.0
£64.0
-£41.6
£25.6
£0.9
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
2.58
Next we have sought to analyse economic participation. The Economic Activity Rate (EAR) in
Aylesbury Vale at 80% is consistent with that across the Central Bucks FEMA; and above regional
and national averages. The data shows that the rate has varied by +/- 2% over the past eight years.
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Economic Activity (% 16-64)
% 16-64 Economically Active
84.0
82.0
80.0
Aylesbury Vale
78.0
Central Bucks FEMA
Milton Keynes
76.0
South East
England & Wales
74.0
72.0
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2008-9
2007-8
2006-7
2005-6
Source: Annual Population Survey (three year moving averages)
2.59
Looking at the employment rate shows a similar picture, with an employment rate of 75% which is
broadly consistent to the regional average, but modestly below other parts of Central Bucks FEMA.
Employment Rate (% 16-64)
80.0
% 16-64 in Employment
78.0
76.0
74.0
Aylesbury Vale
72.0
Central Bucks FEMA
70.0
Milton Keynes
South East
68.0
England & Wales
66.0
64.0
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2008-9
2007-8
2006-7
2005-6
Source: Annual Population Survey (three year moving averages)
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2.60
The difference between the Economic Activity Rate and Employment Rate principally reflects
unemployment. Annual Population Survey data (using three year moving averages to reflect the
survey nature of the data) indicates an unemployment rate of 6.4% in 2013/14 in Aylesbury Vale –
modestly above levels across the FEMA but similar to the regional average.
Unemployment (% 16-64)
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
Aylesbury Vale
5.0
Central Bucks FEMA
4.0
Milton Keynes
3.0
South East
2.0
England & Wales
1.0
0.0
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2008-9
2007-8
2006-7
2005-6
Source: Annual Population Survey (three year moving averages)
2.61
Claimant Unemployment (those claiming Job Seekers Allowance) is a sub-set of overall
unemployment. Figure 26 tracks trends in the claimant count back over the last 20 years. The
claimant count fell during the 1990s to a position in the 2000s (pre 2007) of near full unemployment.
It increased notably on the onset of recession in 2008/9. However since 2013 it has fallen notably.
2.62
Claimant unemployment in Aylesbury Vale has historically been below regional and national levels,
and this continues to be the case. In January 2015, 0.8% of residents 16-64 were JSA Claimants,
compared to 1.2% across the South East.
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Trend in JSA Claimants
Claimants as % Population 16-64
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
Aylesbury Vale
4.0
South East
3.0
England & Wales
2.0
1.0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0.0
Source: NOMIS
2.63
Figure 27 profiles the skills of residents aged 16-64. Aylesbury Vale’s population is relatively well
qualified, with 38.7% having Level 4+ skills (equivalent to degree level or above). Whilst this is
below the FEMA average (43.1%), it is notably above the South East average of 33.8%. The District
also has an above average proportion of residents with Level 3 skills.
Skills Profile
Other Qualifications
Level 4+
England & Wales
Level 3
South East
Level 2
Milton Keynes
Central Bucks FEMA
Level 1
Aylesbury Vale
No Qualifications
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
% Residents 16-64
50.0
Source: Annual Population Survey (three year moving averages, 2011-14)
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2.64
The skills profile is reflected in the occupations of residents. The District (as with the Central Bucks
FEMA more widely) has a high proportion of people employed in managerial and professional
occupations at 30.5%. In total 58.6% are employed in managerial, professional or skilled trades –
the higher skilled occupational groups. Compared to other parts of the FEMA, employment in
administrative and secretarial, skilled trade and caring and leisure occupations is however higher in
the District.
Occupational Profile
% Residents in Employment
Managers, Directors and Senior
Officials
Professional Occupations
Associate Professional &
Technical
Administrative & Secretarial
Skilled Trades
Caring, Leisure & Other Service
Process, Plant & Machine
Operatives
Elementary Occupations
Aylesbury
Vale
Cental
Bucks
FEMA
Milton
Keynes
South
East
England
& Wales
10.7
13.5
9.7
11.6
10.3
19.8
17.7
21.9
17.0
21.1
16.0
21.3
15.6
19.6
14.2
11.4
10.4
8.9
7.9
10.8
8.4
8.2
8.2
11.5
7.9
7.1
8.9
10.8
10.0
9.1
7.3
10.8
10.5
9.0
7.9
4.1
3.9
6.0
4.6
6.3
Source: Annual Population Survey (three year moving averages, 2011-14)
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Summary
Population
 ONS data indicates that Aylesbury Vale has seen strong recent population growth,
with annual growth of 1.2% per annum since 2009 compared to an average over the
longer-term of 0.9% pa growth. Compared to wider areas, a higher proportion of the
District’s population is aged 40-74. A lower proportion of younger people is a
characteristic of similar, largely rural areas. Population growth over the last decade
has focused in those age groups 45+.
 An above average proportion of households have dependent children, reflecting the
attractiveness of the District as a place to raise children and relative affordability for
instance compared to other parts of Buckinghamshire . There are also an above
average proportion of couple households with no dependents, such as those whose
children have moved out of the family home.
Economy




Historically growth in employment in Aylesbury Vale has been similar to that seen
across the wider South East region.
The District has a strong representation of employment in agriculture, public
administration and business support activities. Professional and business services
have however driven employment growth in the District over the last decade.
In addition there are niche opportunities to develop the District’s business base,
including in high performance engineering; rehabilitation and telecare technologies;
food and drink manufacturing; and ICT activities.
The business base is focused particularly towards small businesses. Self-employment
in the District is above average.
Labour Market




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The working-age population in the District has been growing. This historically has
supported employment growth.
Economic activity rates are reasonable, with 80% of the working-age population aged
16-64 economically active, and 75% in employment. There is some modest scope to
improve employment rates moving forwards. Unemployment at the time of writing was
6.4%.
A high proportion of the District’s residents are in higher-paid managerial and
professional occupations. A proportion of these commute out of the area to higher
paid jobs in larger employment centres from the attractive rural hinterland.
Overall there is net out-commuting from the District of around 15,000 persons per day.
The largest net flows are to Milton Keynes, London and Wycombe District.
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DEMOGRAPHIC-LED PROJECTIONS
3.1
This section moves on to consider demographic dynamics, considering how – based on past trends
-
Aylesbury Vale District’s population can be expected to change; and how the number of
households is expected to grow taking account of population growth and how people of different
ages occupy homes. The need for housing (dwellings) is calculated by considering household
growth and making an allowance for vacant and second homes within the housing stock.
3.2
The approach used to initially consider future housing need in this section follows the requirements
of the National Planning Policy Framework and the more recent (March 2014) Planning Practice
Guidance on Assessment of Housing and Economic Development Needs. The Planning Practice
Guidance (PPG) effectively describes a process whereby the latest population and household
projections are a starting point; and a number of “tests” then need to be considered to examine
whether it is appropriate to consider an adjustment to housing provision. This process was
described in Section 1. This section presents the first step in this process – considering population
and household projections.
3.3
The core projections in this section look at housing needs in the period from 2013 to 2033. The
starting point has been chosen as a base date for which there is good baseline data available (from
ONS midyear population estimates) with the end date (of 2033) providing a reasonable (20-year)
period for analysis and coinciding with the plan period proposed for VALP.
Latest Official Demographic Projections
3.4
The PPG states that ‘household projections published by the Department for Communities and
Local Government should provide the starting point estimate of overall housing need. The
household projections are produced by applying projected household representative rates to the
population projections published by the Office for National Statistics. Projected household
representative rates are based on trends observed in Census and Labour Force Survey data’.[2a015]. The use of official national projections as a starting point for assessing housing need is
recommended, the PPG sets out, as they are statistically robust and based on nationally consistent
assumptions. Whilst the PPG provides scope for sensitivity testing, relating to local circumstances,
it is clear that any local changes made to demographic projections should be able to be clearly
explained and justified based on established sources of robust evidence.
3.5
The most up-to-date official projections are the 2012-based CLG Household Projections published
in February 2015. These projections were underpinned by ONS (2012-based) Sub-National
Population Projections (SNPP) – published in May 2014. Our analysis therefore initially considers
the validity of the population projections and their consistency with past trends.
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ONS 2012-based Subnational Population Projections
3.6
On the 29th May 2014 ONS published a new set of Sub-National Population Projections (SNPP).
They replace the 2010- and 2011-based SNPP. It is therefore worthwhile to consider the likely
implications of this new data on the need for housing.
3.7
Table 9 shows projected population growth from 2013 to 2033 in each of Aylesbury Vale, the South
East and England. The data shows that the District’s population is expected to grow by around
35,900 people. This is a 20% increase – significantly above the expected increase in the region and
nationally but in line with recent trends in the District. It should be noted that the data presented for
Aylesbury Vale has been updated to take account of mid-2013 population estimates (as the PPG
recommends) whereas the data for the South East and England is as published in the SNPP. The
impacts of this will be minimal. The projected above average population growth in the future relative
to these wider benchmarks is consistent to past trends.
Table 9:
Projected Population Growth, 2013-2033
Population 2013
Aylesbury Vale
181,071
South East
8,784,800
England
53,843,600
Source: ONS 2012-based SNPP
3.8
Population 2033
217,005
10,092,800
61,022,500
Change in
population
35,934
1,308,000
7,178,900
% change
19.8%
14.9%
13.3%
Figure 29 shows how the projected population growth in Aylesbury Vale compares with past trends
(over the past 5- and 10-years). Due to publication in June 2014 of Mid-Year Population Estimates
for 2013, the analysis essentially uses mid-2013 as a starting point for the projections with the trend
periods looking to 2033 as an end date.
3.9
The analysis shows that the future projection sits some way above a 10-year trend (in respect of
rates of population growth) and broadly follows the trend seen over the past 5-years (dropping
slightly below the trend from about 2025 onwards). Given that ONS projections are largely built-up
from five year trends, this analysis suggests that the projected levels of population growth moving
forward are not unreasonable.
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Past and Projected Population Growth – Aylesbury Vale
230,000
220,000
Population
210,000
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
Trend (2001-3)
2012-based
Trend (2003-13)
Linear (Trend (2003-13))
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
150,000
Trend (2008-13)
Linear (Trend (2008-13))
Source: ONS
3.10
The figure and table below consider the drivers of population change in the District. Population
change is largely driven by natural change (births minus deaths) and migration although within ONS
data there is also a small other changes category (mainly related to armed forces and prison
populations) and an unattributable population change (UPC) – this is an adjustment made by ONS
to mid-year population estimates where Census data has suggests that population growth had
either been over- or under-estimated in the inter-Censal years. Because UPC links back to Census
data a figure is only provided for 2001 to 2011.
3.11
The data shows that natural change has been an increasingly important component of population
growth in the District. In 2001-2 the number of births exceeded the number of deaths by 590 and by
2011/12 this had increased to 938. Data for 2012/13 shows a slightly lower level, but still some way
above figures seen until the late 2000s.
3.12
Net migration is also a significant component of change and can also be seen to have been rising
over time. For the first five years for which data is presented (2001-6) net migration averaged some
350 people per annum; over the last five years (2008-13) this has risen to 1,524, furthermore, the
most recent period for which data exists (2012/13) shows the highest level of migration in any 12month period (2,355). Over time increases have been seen for both international and internal
migration (i.e. moves from one part of the Country to another).
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3.13
Other changes are quite small whilst the data shows a notable (and negative) level of UPC – the
negative UPC suggests that previous ONS components of change data may have over-estimated
population growth. However, due to changes in the methods used by ONS to measure migration
(through the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (MSIP)) it is most probable that any
errors are focussed on earlier periods (notably 2001-6 (i.e. before the MSIP)).
3.14
Additionally, it is possible that there were errors in the recording of Census data (particularly the
2001 Census) which would mean that UPC is not solely related to migration. As a simple crosscheck it can be seen that the Council’s monitoring data shows 7,718 housing completions in the
2001-11 period but the Census only records an increase in dwellings of 5,855 (a difference of
1,863). If it were assumed that there are 2.4 people per dwelling, this would equate to a potential
discrepancy in population of about 4,500 between the 2001 and 2011 Census. Such a figure
represents about 75% of the identified UPC and suggests that a significant amount of the UPC is
not related to the recording of migration. Instead it is likely to relate to under-estimation of
population by the 2001 Census and/or over-estimation of the District’s population in the 2011
Census.
3.15
Overall, whilst a notable level of UPC is identified, it looks unlikely that a significant proportion of
this is attributable to migration; the extent to which it is an error in migration data, it is most probable
that this occurred in the period before 2006 given the improvements in migration statistics (and
would therefore not have any impact on projections moving forward which are typically based on
trends over the last 5/6 years).
Components of Population Change, mid-2001 to mid-2013 – Aylesbury Vale
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
2001/2 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Natural change
Net internal migration
Net international migration
Other changes
Unattributable population change
Total change
Source: ONS
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Table 10: Components of Population Change (2001-13) – Aylesbury Vale
Year
Natural
change
Net
internal
migration
Net
internation
al
migration
Other
changes
Other (unattrib
utable)
Total
change
2001/2
590
250
-512
-30
-587
-289
2002/3
630
77
-125
71
-591
62
2003/4
657
256
-109
-16
-595
193
2004/5
635
425
208
182
-605
845
2005/6
629
505
772
65
-594
1,377
2006/7
782
679
554
9
-592
1,432
2007/8
874
691
262
-115
-593
1,119
2008/9
793
456
136
-49
-577
759
2009/10
826
166
901
147
-566
1,474
2010/11
915
819
759
50
-555
1,988
2011/12
938
1,260
767
-52
-
2,913
2012/13
859
1,646
709
64
-
3,278
Source: ONS
Household Growth
3.16
Household formation (headship) rates are applied to the population in order to project future growth
in households. Headship rates can be described in their most simple terms as the number of people
who are counted as heads of households (or in this case the more widely used Household
Reference Person (HRP)).
3.17
With the publication by Communities and Local Government (CLG) of 2012-based Household
Projections a new set of headship rates is now available. These rates are considered to be more
positive than the previous set (2011-based) and typically suggest higher rates of household growth
for a given population. At a national level (in the 2012-21 period considered in both sets of
projections) the new projections show 10% higher growth in households. However for Aylesbury
Vale the figure is lower (at 5%).
3.18
Table 11 shows expected household growth in the 2012-based projections from 2013 to 2033 for
Aylesbury Vale and a range of other areas. The figures for Aylesbury Vale do not exactly match the
CLG projections as we have included population data for 2013, all other areas show the data as
published. Again the inclusion of a further single year’s population data for Aylesbury Vale should
have a minimal impact on figures for comparative purposes when looking over a 20 year period.
The data suggest an increase in households of about 18,700 over the 20-year period – this is a
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26% increase; notably higher than expected across the South East and also well above the rate
expected nationally. The stronger household growth in the District is a reflection of the stronger
projected growth in its population.
Table 11: Projected Household Growth, 2013-33
Aylesbury Vale
South East
England
Households
2013
Households
2033
Change in
households
% change
72,080
3,631,482
22,499,536
90,778
4,386,939
26,797,826
18,698
755,457
4,298,290
25.9%
20.8%
19.1%
Source: CLG
3.19
Figure 31 below shows household growth back to 1991 and projected forward to 2033. The analysis
shows that growth in Aylesbury Vale over the longer-term has been notable above the South East
and national averages. In all areas there is some evidence of a slight acceleration in growth rates
from about 2012 onwards – this is consistent with the view that the new projections are taking a
more positive view about household formation rates relative to trends over the 2001-11 period.
Indexed Household Growth, 1991-2033
Indexed population growth (1991=100)
175
165
155
145
135
125
115
105
95
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
South East
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
Aylesbury Vale
England
Source: CLG
3.20
To provide an initial assessment of the 2012-based Household Projections we can compare
projected trends in average household sizes. Figure 31 shows how average household size was
projected to change based on each of 2012-, 2011- and 2008-based CLG Household Projection
data. The data does show the 2012-based figures being slightly more positive than the 2011-based
version. This can be seen by the newer projections expecting a greater decrease in average
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household sizes over time – this would be more noticeable if we were to continue the 2011-based
‘trend’ beyond 2021. Changes in average household size reflect household formation rates, but also
(and particularly) changes in the age structure of the population. The key reason why average
household sizes are falling is that the number of older people living in smaller households is
growing.
3.21
Interestingly in Aylesbury Vale there was a trend of decreasing household sizes from 2001 to 2011,
albeit at a lesser pace than seen over the preceeding decade. At a national level household sizes
remained broadly constant over this period, with national research suggesting that this related in
part to market and economic factors supressing household formation. Moving forwards, average
household size in Aylesbury Vale is expected to fall at a rate which is in-line with the trends back to
1991.
3.22
Data from the 2008-based projections has also been included in Figure 32. This shows that
average household sizes are above what might have been expected from this earlier release of
data – this difference is however not very marked compared with similar analysis we have carried
out in other parts of the Country.
Past and Projected Trends in Average Household Size – Aylesbury Vale
2.65
2.55
2.45
2.35
2.25
2.15
2012-based
2011-based
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
2.05
2008-based
Source: Derived from ONS and CLG data
3.23
It is important to understand how the different CLG projections impact on assumptions for different
age groups. Figure 32 assesses the headship rates used in each of the projections for five year age
groups. Overall the 2012-based projections look fairly sound with levels and rates of change being
not dissimilar to those in the earlier (pre-recession) 2008-based projections.
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3.24
The one age group of concern is people aged 25-34 where the latest projections show quite a
movement away from the figures in the 2008-based projections. This is particularly so for the 25-34
age group. The Methodological Report issued by CLG with the projections outlines the reasons for
this setting out that “at the present time the results from the Census 2011 show that the 2008-based
projections were overestimating the rate of household formation and support the evidence from the
Labour Force Survey that household representative rates for some (particularly younger) age
groups have fallen markedly since the 2001 Census.”
3.25
The projections show household formation rates for this age group deteriorating further looking
forwards. A sensitivity analysis is provided later in this section. The issue of supressed household
formation in the 25-34 age group is considered in more detail later in this report.
Projected Household Formation Rates by Age of Head of Household – Aylesbury
Vale
15-24
0.2
CLG 2012-based
CLG 2011-based
0.15
CLG 2008-based
25-34
0.5
0.45
0.1
0.4
0.05
0.35
0
0.3
CLG 2012-based
CLG 2011-based
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
CLG 2008-based
35-44
0.65
45-54
0.65
CLG 2012-based
CLG 2011-based
0.6
CLG 2008-based
0.6
0.55
0.55
0.5
0.5
0.45
0.45
CLG 2012-based
CLG 2011-based
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1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
CLG 2008-based
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55-64
65-74
0.65
0.75
0.6
0.7
0.55
0.65
CLG 2012-based
0.5
0.6
CLG 2011-based
CLG 2008-based
CLG 2012-based
CLG 2011-based
CLG 2008-based
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
0.55
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
0.45
75-84
85 and over
0.85
0.9
0.8
0.85
0.75
0.8
CLG 2012-based
0.7
CLG 2011-based
0.75
CLG 2011-based
CLG 2008-based
CLG 2008-based
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
0.7
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
0.65
CLG 2012-based
Source: CLG
3.26
In the 2012-based Household Projections, headship rates for a number of age groups aged over 45
differ from those in previous runs of CLG projections. However in most instances the changes in the
headship rate moving forwards (i.e. the forward trends) are similar to those in previous projection
runs.
3.27
The projections indicate broadly stable headship rates over time for those aged 35-44. We would
note that the Methodological Report accompanying the CLG 2012-based Household Projections
outlines that “there could be age cohort effects that are ignored by the current methodology. Recent
falls in household representative rates for younger age groups may carry forward through a cohort
process into older age groups in future years.” There are thus risks, as stated by CLG, that
household formation amongst this age group could be overstated; and clear evidence suggesting
that the previous projected growth in headship rates for this group can now be considered
unrealistic.
3.28
Table 12 below brings together outputs in terms of household growth and housing need using the
2012-based headship rates and our core projection linked to the 2012-based SNPP.
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3.29
To convert households into dwellings the data includes an uplift to take account of vacant and
second homes. A figure of 3.8% has been used; derived from 2011 Census data.
3.30
The data shows that by applying the 2012-based rates there would be a need for 971 dwellings per
annum.
3.31
This figure of 971 dwellings per annum in Aylesbury Vale to 2033 would be considered as the
starting point for considering future housing need, following the approach in the Planning Practice
Guidance.
Table 12:
Projected Household Growth 2013-33 – 2012-based SNPP (as adjusted) and 2012based Headship Rates
2012-based Headship Rates
Households 2013
Households 2033
Change in households
Households Per annum
Dwellings (per annum)
72,080
90,778
18,698
935
971
Source: CLG Household Projections, 2013 Mid Year Estimates, JGC Modelling
Sensitivity Analysis
3.32
The demographic projections are particularly sensitive to levels and trends in migration and to the
household formation rates which are applied to project growth in households. We have therefore
undertaken a sensitivity analysis around these two factors.
Household Formation Rates
3.33
If the headship rates from the previous 2011-based household projections are used (suitably
indexed beyond 2021 (based on trends between 2016-21) and linked to the 2012-based SNPP)
then the level of housing need would be 901 dwellings per annum. Hence the latest CLG
projections are suggesting an uplift of 70 homes each year compared to the previous projections –
an 8% increase over the 2013-33 period. This again confirms that the 2012-based CLG projections
are taking a more positive view about household formation than the 2011-based Household
Projections.
3.34
We have also run a sensitivity analysis applying the headship trends from the 2008-based
Household Projections. This assumes that household formation will ‘track’ the trends shown in this
previous set of projections. This results in a need for 1,063 dwellings per annum (9.5% above that
shown using the 2012-based rates).
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Table 13: Projected Household Growth 2013-33 – 2012-based SNPP (as adjusted) with
headship rates tracking those in 2008-based Projections
Tracking 2008-based Headship Rates
Households 2013
Households 2033
Change in households
Per annum
Dwellings (per annum)
3.35
72,080
92,549
20,469
1,023
1,063
The two scenarios provide a sensitivity analysis in effect suggesting that household formation rates
could affect housing need by +/- 9%. The 2012-based Household Projections sit between those
shown in the 2008- and 2011-based Household Projections (using the same population projections).
This is considered reasonable taking account of evidence that we have seen some deviation away
from the 2008-based headship rates, relating in part to supressed household formation and in part
to international migration and different household structures within new-migrant communities6.
Migration
3.36
Although we consider the 2012-based SNPP to be reasonable demographic projection when taking
account of past trends in population growth we have also developed three alternative projections to
provide a sensitivity analysis based on migration trends. These three scenarios consider longerterm migration trends, looking at data over the period since 2001, and Unattributable Population
Change.
3.37
Changes in population reflect levels of births, deaths and migration (the components of population
change). Following the release of data from the 2011 Census, ONS has revisited its estimates for
the component of population change over the 2001-11 period (the Inter-Censal period). Part of the
growth in population which was recorded over this period has been ascribed to ‘Unattributable
Population Change.’ At a national level this represents 103,700 persons across England. ONS
consider that this is likely to reflect a combination of errors in the following:
 Sampling variability
 International migration estimates
 Census population estimates, both in 2001 and 2011
 Internal migration estimates (at a sub-national level).
3.38
The sensitivity analysis includes consideration of the potential impact of UPC on population
projections for Aylesbury Vale.
3.39
The three scenarios considered can be summarised as:
6
See for instance Holmans, A. (2013) New Estimates of Housing Demand and Need in England; or McDonald, N. and Williams, P.
(2014) Planning for Housing in England
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 12-Year Migration Trends
This projection looks at the level of population and household/ housing growth we might expect if
migration levels in the future are the same as seen over the period since 2001 (this is the
longest period for which reasonable quality data is available).
A consideration of longer-term trends is suggested as an alternative scenario in PAS Technical
Advice Note although we would recognise that the approach is unlikely to be as robust as the
SNPP as it projects average annual past rates in migration, and it will not take account of
changes to the age structure over time and the impact this might have on migration levels. The
SNPP is a dynamic projection which takes account of how changes in the size and structure of
the population in the District, and other areas from which people typically move to the District, in
modelling migration in the future.
 12-Year Migration Trends with a full UPC Adjustment
There is a notable level of Unattributable Population Change in the ONS data for 2001-11 in
Aylesbury Vale. In this instance UPC is negative, this suggests that the components of change
feeding into the SNPP may overestimate migration and population growth.
In this scenario, migration figures in the inter-censal period are adjusted assuming that all of the
UPC relates to issues associated with recording of migration.
 12-year Migration Trends with a half UPC Adjustment
Recognising that it is unclear if UPC is an error in the recording of migration or other errors in
data (potentially around the recording of population in the 2001 Census) the final sensitivity is to
again consider long-term migration trend and to make an adjustment equal to half of the UPC
observed in the past.
3.40
Generally it is considered that if UPC is attributable to migration then this is most likely to relate to
estimates of international migration – hence the modelling make an adjustment to level of
international migration. The UPC adjustments are applied to the 12-year migration projection
described above. This reflects evidence that UPC is most probably associated with longer-term
trends (particularly in the 2001-6 period.
3.41
Table 14 below shows the outputs of the three alternative demographic projections developed. In
the case of 12-year migration trends the analysis suggests a slightly lower level of need than when
using the 2012-based SNPP (for 923 dwellings rather than 971). With an adjustment for UPC
(whether full or half) the housing need is shown to be significantly lower – ranging from 674 to 798
dwellings per annum.
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Table 14: Projected Household Growth 2013-33 – 12-year Migration Trends and 2012-based
Headship Rates
12-year migration
trends
Households 2013
Households 2033
Change in households
Per annum
Dwellings (per annum)
Source: Demographic modelling
3.42
72,080
89,853
17,772
889
923
12-year migration
trends with a full
UPC adjustment
72,080
85,065
12,985
649
674
12-year migration
trends with a half
UPC adjustment
72,080
87,459
15,378
769
798
The issue of Unatttributable Population Change in the demographic data for Aylesbury Vale was
discussed at the Vale of Aylesbury Plan (VAP) examination. The Inspector’s letter of January 2014
outlines that there was insufficient evidence to attribute UPC in its entirety to migration.
3.43
Since the VAP Examination, ONS has completed a consultation on whether UPC should be
considered in future sub-national population projections7. The findings of this, released following the
VAP Examination, on 20th January 2014 outline that an adjustment could only be made for UPC if it
could be demonstrates that it measures a bias in the trend data that will continue into the future and
that no evidence of this could be found. It sets out that:
“UPC is unlikely to be seen in continuing sub-national trends as:
3.44

It is unclear what proportion of the UPC is due to sampling error in the 2001 Census,
adjustments made to MYEs post the 2001 Census, sampling error in the 2011 Census
and/or error in the intercensal components (mainly migration).

If it is due to either 2001 Census or 2011 Census then the components of population
change will be unaffected

If it is due to international migration, it is likely that the biggest impacts will be seen earlier
in the decade and will have less of an impact in the later years, because of improvements
introduced to migration estimates in the majority of these years.
Whilst the sensitivity testing undertaken is interesting, GL Hearn consider that on the basis of the
above, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that a full adjustment for UPC would be
appropriately applied to a projection – particularly because of the potential for Census sampling
errors.
3.45
ONS suggests that the impacts of UPC, if related to international migration, are more likely to relate
to earlier years of data within the 2001-11 period. ONS has implemented a programme of
improvements to migration statistics, including consideration of Higher Education Statistics Agency
data to record student movements and improvements to modelling of international migration. Data
7
ONS (Jan 2014) 2012-based Sub-National Population Projections for England – Report on Unattributable Population Change
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for more recent years should be better. The 2012-based SNPP takes account of migration data
from 2006/7 onwards. Thus there is some basis for including a partial adjustment for UPC if longerterm migration trends are being used (for instance those including the 2001-6 period), however the
Planning Practice Guidance is clear that the latest official projections should be used as a starting
point. Our interrogation of the SNPP indicates that this is a reasonable demographic projection,
from a technical perspective, for the District.
3.46
On the basis of interrogating the demographic data, including the analysis in Figure 29, for
Aylesbury Vale we consider these alternative projections as being less robust than the SNPP which
takes account of the latest data and trends, and is consistent with the approach recommended in
Planning Practice Guidance which advocates the use of the official population and household
projections as they are nationally consistent.
3.47
It is not proposed to take the alternative scenarios forward for further analysis – it is however useful
to look at the population growth implications of each scenario. Figure 33 therefore shows the
population growth associated with each of these alternatives. As can be seen, using 12-year
migration trends the level of population growth is roughly between long- and short-term trends. With
a half UPC adjustment, population growth is closely aligned with long-term trends (but some way
below the levels of growth seen over the past five years). With a full UPC adjustment the level of
growth is some way below either long- or short-term trends. Overall, none of these alternatives look
as robust as the actual ONS figures.
3.48
As we will come onto later in the report, there is wider evidence which suggests that the ONS
projections are reasonable and there is not a strong basis for adjusting migration assumptions
downwards. This includes consideration of the relationship with London (see below) and of
expected employment growth and the potential impacts of this on migration trends.
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Past and Projected Population Growth – Aylesbury Vale
230,000
220,000
Population
210,000
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
Trend (2001-3)
Trend (2003-13)
2012-based
12-year migration
12_yr_1/2UPC
Linear (Trend (2003-13))
Source: ONS and demographic modelling
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
150,000
Trend (2008-13)
12_yr_UPC
Linear (Trend (2008-13))
Considering Migration to and From London
3.49
The Greater London Authority (GLA) identified as part of their own projections feeding into the
Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP) that there had been a marked change in internal
migration dynamics to- and from- London since the beginning of the recession (2007/8). Overall, the
GLA identified that out-migration from London to other parts of the UK had dropped by about 10%
along with a 6% increase in in-migration.
3.50
As a result of this the GLA developed a series of population and household projections with
different assumptions about migration. The Central scenario (used to support the FALP) made the
assumption that after 2017, migration levels would recover back towards pre-recession levels – the
GLA in effect took a midpoint between pre- and post-recession migration statistics and assumed a
5% uplift in out-migration and a 3% decrease in in-migration.
3.51
Whilst the figures above are for the whole of London, it will be the case that different areas will have
seen different levels of change in London related migration in the pre- and post- recession periods.
3.52
Below we have studied how migration patterns have changed in Aylesbury Vale. Figure 35 shows
that there is some evidence across the area of a reduction in the number of people moving from
London, as well as a slight increase in the numbers moving to London (although data for 2012/13
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looks to be reversing this trend). The net effect is a reduction in net migration from London to
Aylesbury Vale. This is particularly evidence during the 2008/9 – 2010/11 period.
Migration Flows between London and Aylesbury Vale
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
From London to district
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
To London from district
Net flow
Source: GLA
3.53
Table 15 shows this information on a year-by-year basis. The analysis shows in the 2001-8 period
that an average of 1,303 people moved from London, in the five year period feeding into the SNPP
(2007-12) this average reduced to 1,169 – a reduction of 133 (10%). The analysis also shows a
small increase in the average number of people moving to London (increasing by about 5%). The
net effect of both of these changes is a reduction in net migration from London to Aylesbury Vale of
about 171 people per annum – this is a 29% reduction on pre-recession trends.
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Table 15: Migration between London and Aylesbury Vale
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Pre-2008 average
SNPP average
Difference
Source: GLA
3.54
From London to
district
1,390
1,290
1,410
1,210
1,310
1,280
1,230
1,050
1,150
1,115
1,302
1,395
1,303
1,169
133
To London from
district
700
690
680
670
740
750
730
810
720
692
780
692
709
746
-38
Net flow
690
600
730
540
570
530
500
240
430
423
522
702
594
423
171
On the basis of the information above, we have developed an alternative population projection. This
projection uses a similar assumption to the GLA modelling; i.e. for an adjustment to be made to
migration levels post-2017 at a level which is half of the difference seen between pre-recession
trends and the trends feeding into the SNPP.
3.55
Table 16 shows estimated household growth with this projection (with headship rates drawn from
the 2012-based CLG household projections). The analysis suggests a need for 999 dwellings per
annum – 28 more than in the analysis using on the 2012-based SNPP (a 3% uplift).
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Table 16: Projected Household Growth 2013-33, with Higher Net Migration from London
Aylesbury Vale
Households 2011
Households 2031
Change in households
Per annum
Dwellings (per annum)
3.56
72,080
91,327
19,247
962
999
Figure 36 shows population growth with the London Migration Sensitivity Analysis and compared
with past trends and the 2012-based SNPP. The analysis shows slightly stronger population growth,
at a level which broadly tracks short-term population growth trends. By 2033, the London adjusted
projection shows population growth which is about 1,600 higher than the SNPP.
Past and Projected Population Growth – Aylesbury Vale (with London
adjustment)
230,000
220,000
Population
210,000
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
Trend (2001-3)
2012-based
Linear (Trend (2008-13))
Source: ONS
3.57
Trend (2003-13)
London_adjustment
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
150,000
Trend (2008-13)
Linear (Trend (2003-13))
This scenario, with a London adjustment, is modelled to be consistent with the GLA’s demographic
projections which underpin the London Plan. It reflects analysis of migration trends, which suggest
that there has been some ‘recessionary effect’ which has resulted in a fall in net out-migration from
London to Aylesbury Vale. With improving housing market circumstances, GL Hearn consider it a
realistic possibility that out-migration could increase moving forwards. This is supported by the
recent couple of years of data (2011-13). This scenario takes this into account.
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Implications





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The 2012-based SNPP are anticipated to represent a robust starting point projection for
population growth in Aylesbury Vale. These project 19.8% growth in the District’s
population between 2013-33. This is almost identical to the rate of population growth over
the last 20 years (1993-2013) of 19.6%.
If the household formation rates in the 2012-based Household Projections are applied to
this, a need for 971 homes per year is shown. This provides the ‘starting point’ estimate of
housing need.
There is evidence that as the economy recovers, out-migration from London to Aylesbury
Vale could also recover back towards pre-recession levels. A scenario considering this
identifies a need for around 1000 homes per annum.
A sensitivity analysis is provided considering alternative scenarios for projecting migration
and household formation rates. Alternative migration scenarios are lower than the core
scenario based on the latest official projections, but are not dynamic projections which
take account of the latest data and how demographic dynamics can be expected to
change over time. If the 2008-based headship rates are applied to the 2012 SNPP, a need
for 1063 dwellings per annum results. This is 9.5% higher than in the 2012-based
Household Projections.
Overall, taking account of the balance of factors, we would consider a demographic-based
assessment to show a need for around 1,000 homes per annum.
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AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED
4.1
In this section we discuss levels of affordable housing need in Aylesbury Vale. Affordable housing
need is defined as describing “those households who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable
housing and who cannot afford to meet their housing needs in the market.”
4.2
The Practice Guidance sets out a standard approach for assessing affordable housing need which
we adopt for this study. This is known as the Basic Needs Assessment Model, and considers the
need for and supply of affordable housing.
4.3
It is a somewhat theoretical model which was originally designed to assess whether there was a
shortfall or surplus of affordable housing in an area; and considers this on the assumption that all
households who cannot afford market housing are in need of affordable housing. The reality is that
some households in these circumstances find suitable accommodation in the private rented sector.
4.4
The model is however is particularly relevant in establishing what number of households will require
support in meeting their housing need (in terms of some form of subsidy); and quantifying the
potential scale of this need.
4.5
In the context of the analysis in this report, affordable housing is described as:
Social rented, affordable rented and intermediate housing, provided to eligible households
whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes
and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an
affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative
affordable housing provision.
4.6
Thus affordable housing is that which is owned principally be Registered Providers and is held ‘in
perpetuity’ such that when a property is re-let or re-sold, it is made available to another household
in need of affordable housing (or the subsidy in the home is recycled).
4.7
The figures presented in this report for affordable housing needs have been based on
contemporary secondary data sources. It draws on a number of sources of information including
2011 Census data, demographic projections, house prices/rents and income information.
4.8
The housing needs modelling undertaken provides an assessment of housing need for the 2013-33
period. Each of the stages of the housing needs model calculation are discussed in more detail
below.
4.9
The affordable housing needs model is influenced strongly by housing market conditions (and
particularly the relationship of housing costs and incomes) at a particular point in time – the time of
the assessment – as well as the existing supply of affordable housing (through relets of current
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stock) which can be used to meet affordable housing need. On this basis, estimates of housing
need are provided in this section for the twenty year period between 2013 and 2033.
Housing Cost Differentials
4.10
The first part of the assessment is to consider entry level housing costs for homes in different
tenures – both to buy and rent – within the District. We have analysed Land Registry and VOA data
to establish lower quartile prices and rents. For the purposes of analysis (and to be consistent with
PPG) we have taken lower quartile prices and rents to reflect the entry-level point into the market.
4.11
The table below shows estimated lower quartile property prices by dwelling type. The data shows
that entry-level costs to buy are estimated to start from about £103,000 for a flat and rising to
£315,000 for a detached home. Looking at the lower quartile price across all dwelling types the
analysis shows a figure of £179,200.
Table 17: Lower Quartile Sales Prices by Type (Q1 and Q2 – 2014)
Dwelling type
Lower quartile price
Flat
Terraced
Semi-detached
Detached
All dwellings
£103,000
£170,000
£210,000
£315,000
£179,200
Source: Land Registry (2014)
4.12
A similar analysis has been carried out for private rents, using Valuation Office Agency (VOA) data
covering the 12-month period to March 2014. For the rental data information about dwelling sizes is
provided (rather than types). The analysis shows an average lower quartile cost in the Vale (across
all dwelling sizes) of around £595 per month.
Table 18: Lower Quartile Private Rents by Size and Location (year to March 2014)
Dwelling size
Room only
Studio
1 bedroom
2 bedrooms
3 bedrooms
4+ bedrooms
All dwellings
Monthly rent
£390
£405
£540
£650
£845
£1,150
£595
Source: Valuation Office Agency
4.13
In addition to rental costs, we have considered the maximum amount of Local Housing Allowance
(LHA) payable on different sized properties within the area. Maximum LHA payments are based on
estimates of rents at the 30th percentile and should therefore be roughly comparable with our
estimates of lower quartile costs.
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4.14
The geographical areas used to determine LHA are not however co-terminus with the District and
so any comparison is not exact. LHA levels are based on Broad Rental Market Areas (BRMA). The
BRMA is an area where a person could reasonably be expected to live taking into account access
to facilities and services for the purposes of health, education, recreation, personal banking and
shopping (as defined by the Rent Office).
4.15
Aylesbury is in the Aylesbury BRMA and this BRMA covers much of the District. However, this area
does extend beyond the Council boundary – most notably to include Thame in Oxfordshire.
Buckingham falls within the Milton Keynes BRMA whilst small parts of the District are in each of the
Cherwell Valley and Luton areas. Below we have therefore provided details for the Aylesbury and
Milton Keynes BRMAs.
4.16
The data suggests only small differences between LHA rates and our analysis based on VOA data.
The most notable differences are for room only rents and in comparison with the Milton Keynes
BRMA (where rents are generally lower). In interpreting this latter finding it should be remembered
that most of this BRMA is outside of the District.
Table 19: Maximum LHA payments by Size and BRMA
Size
Room only
Aylesbury BRMA
Milton Keynes BRMA
£312
£300
£530
£505
£657
£631
£827
£750
£1,250
£959
1 bedroom
2 bedrooms
3 bedrooms
4 bedrooms
Source: VOA data (September 2014)
4.17
Traditionally the main type of affordable housing available in an area is social rented housing. The
cost of social rented accommodation by dwelling size can be obtained from Continuous Recording
(CORE) - a national information source on social rented lettings. Table 19 below illustrates the
rental cost of lettings of social rented properties by size in 2013/14. As can be seen the costs are
below those for private rented housing, indicating a gap between the social rented and market
sectors. This gap increases for larger properties. The figures in the table include service charges.
Table 20: Monthly Social Rent Levels, 2014
Size
1 bedroom – average
2 bedrooms – average
3+ bedrooms – average
Lower quartile (all sizes)
Source: CoRe (2014)
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Monthly Rent
£402
£433
£504
£402 (est’d)
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4.18
Changes in affordable housing provision has seen the introduction of a new tenure of affordable
housing (Affordable Rented). Affordable rented housing is defined in the NPPF as being ‘let by local
authorities or private registered providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social
rented housing. Affordable Rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80%
of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable)’.
4.19
The 80% (maximum) rent is to be based on the open market rental value of the individual property
and so it is not possible to say what this will exactly mean in terms of cost (for example the rent for
a two-bedroom flat is likely to be significantly different to a two-bedroom detached bungalow). In
addition, market rents for new-build homes are likely to be higher than within the existing stock and
may well be in excess of 80% of lower quartile rents. However, for the purposes of analysis we
have assumed that the 80% figure can be applied to the lower quartile private rented cost data
derived from VOA information.
Income Thresholds for Accessing Different Housing Tenures
4.20
Figure 37 below estimates how current prices and rents in Aylesbury Vale might equate to income
levels required to afford such housing. The figures are based on the figures derived in the analysis
above and include four different tenures (buying, private rent, affordable rent and social rent) and
are taken as the lower quartile price/rent across the whole stock of housing available (i.e. including
all property sizes). For illustrative purposes the calculations are based on 3.5 times household
income for house purchase and 30% of income to be spent on housing for rented properties. The
figures for house purchase are based on a 100% mortgage for the purposes of comparing the
different types of housing.
Indicative Income required to Purchase/Rent without Additional Subsidy
£60,000
£51,200
Income required
£50,000
£40,000
£30,000
£23,800
£19,040
£20,000
£16,080
£10,000
£0
Lower quartile Lower quartile Affordable rent Lower quartile
purchase price private rent
social rent
Source: Land Registry, VOA and CoRe
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Income Levels and Affordability
4.21
We can next move on to compare housing costs to incomes. Data about total household income
has been modelled on the basis of a number of different sources of information to provide both an
overall average income and the likely distribution of incomes in each area. The key sources of data
include:
 CACI from Wealth of the Nation 2012 – to provide an overall national average income figure for
benchmarking
 English Housing Survey (EHS) – to provide information about the distribution of incomes (taking
account of variation by tenure in particular)
 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) – to assist in looking at how incomes have
changed from 2012 to 2013 (a 0.7% increase was identified from this source for the South East)
 ONS modelled income estimates – to assist in providing more localised income estimates (i.e.
for Aylesbury Vale District)
4.22
Drawing all of this data together we have modelled an income distribution for Aylesbury Vale District.
Figure 38 below shows the distribution of household incomes across the District. The data shows
that around a quarter (23%) of households have an income below £20,000 with a further third in the
range of £20,000 to £40,000. The average (median) income of all households in the District was
estimated to be around £35,900 with a mean income of £47,200.
Distribution of Household Income in Aylesbury Vale, 2014
25%
Proportion of households in group
21.4%
20%
18.0%
14.3%
15%
10.3%
8.9%
10%
10.2%
10.0%
5.1%
5%
1.9%
0%
Under 10k
£10k to
£20k
£20k to
£30k
£30k to
£40k
£40k to
£50k
£50k to
£60k
£60k to
£80k
£80k to Over £100k
£100k
Source: Derived from ASHE, EHS, CACI and ONS data
4.23
To assess affordability we have looked at households ability to afford either home ownership or
private rented housing (whichever is the cheapest), without financial support. The distribution of
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household incomes is then used to estimate the likely proportion of households who are unable to
afford to meet their needs in the private sector without support, on the basis of existing incomes.
This analysis brings together the data on household incomes with the estimated incomes required
to access private sector housing.
4.24
Different affordability tests are applied to different parts of the analysis depending on the group
being studied (e.g. recognising that newly forming households are likely on average to have lower
incomes than existing households). Assumptions about income levels are discussed for relevant
analyses where relevant in the analysis that follows.
Housing Needs Assessment
4.25
Affordable housing need has been assessed using the Basic Needs Assessment Model, in
accordance with the CLG Practice Guidance. This model is summarised in the chart below.
Overview of Basic Needs Assessment Model
Future Housing Need
Estimate of Newly-Forming
Households in Need & Existing
Households falling into Need
over plan period
Affordable Housing
Supply
Estimate of Supply of Affordable
Housing from Relets of Existing
Properties over plan period
4.26
Current Housing Need
(Gross)
Net
Housing
Need
Arising
Total Net
Current
Need
Total Net Current Need
Over plan period
Current Households in Housing
Need based on Census and
other modelled data
Affordable Housing
Supply
Supply of Affordable Housing
from Vacant Stock &
Development Pipeline
The figures presented in this report for affordable housing needs have been based on secondary
data sources including analysis of 2011 Census data. Each of the stages of the housing needs
model calculation are discussed in more detail below.
Current Housing Need (Backlog)
4.27
In line with PPG, the current need for affordable housing need has been based on estimating the
number of households living in unsuitable housing along with consideration of their current tenure
and affordability. Unsuitability is based on the number of households shown to be overcrowded in
the 2011 Census (updated to a 2013 base) along with an estimate of other needs which have been
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modelled taking account of the tenure profile. Much of these additional needs are found in the
private rented sector and relate to issues around security of tenure and housing costs.
4.28
The analysis shows some 2,651 overcrowded households (using the bedroom standard) along with
an estimated 1,728 households with other needs. Our initial estimates is thus of around 4,380
households are currently living in unsuitable accommodation – this represents 6.1% of the
estimated number of households in Aylesbury Vale in 2013.
4.29
In taking this estimate forward, the data modelling estimates housing unsuitability by tenure. From
the overall number in unsuitable housing (4,380), households living in affordable housing are
excluded (as these households would release a dwelling on moving and so no net need for
affordable housing will arise). The analysis also excludes all outright owners under the assumption
(which is supported by the English Housing Survey) that they will have sufficient equity to move and
90% of owners with a mortgage. The Survey indicates that the vast majority of owners with a
mortgage are able to afford housing once savings and equity are taken into account. A final
adjustment (which is fairly small in Aylesbury Vale) is to slightly reduce the unsuitability figures to
take account of student-only households – such households could technically be overcrowded but
would be unlikely to be considered as being in housing need.
4.30
At the time of the assessment there were an estimated 1,879 households living in unsuitable
housing (excluding current social tenants and the majority of owner-occupiers). This represents
2.6% of households in the District.
Table 21: Estimated Households in Unsuitable Housing
Area
In unsuitable
housing
Total number of
households
% in unsuitable
housing
1,879
72,069
2.6%
Aylesbury Vale
Source: Census (2011) and data modelling
4.31
Our estimated level of current housing need is therefore 1,879 households. We can however
additionally consider that a number of these households might be able to afford market housing
without the need for subsidy. To assess this, we have used the income data and adjusted the
distribution to reflect a lower average income amongst households living in unsuitable housing – for
the purposes of the modelling, an income estimate of 69% of the figure for all households has been
used. Overall, around half of households with a current need are estimated to be likely to have
insufficient income to afford market housing and so our estimate of the total backlog need is
reduced to 901 households.
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Table 22: Estimated Current Need
Area
In unsuitable
housing
% Unable to
Afford
Revised Gross Need
(including Affordability)
Aylesbury Vale
1,879
48.0%
Source: Census (2011), data modelling and income analysis
4.32
901
CLG Guidance also suggests that the Housing Register can be used to estimate levels of housing
need. Our experience working across the Country is that housing registers can be highly variable in
the way allocation policies and pointing systems work. This means that in many areas it is difficult to
have confidence that the register is able to define an underlying need. Many housing registers
include households who might not have a need whilst there will be households in need who do not
register (possibly due to being aware that they have little chance of being housed). For these
reasons, the method linked to Census and other modelled data is preferred.
4.33
That said, there is some merit in cross-checking the number of households on the register with the
numbers in the modelled assessment to test if the figures are of a similar order of magnitude. The
total number of households on the Council’s Housing Register on 31 st December 2014 was 2,432
households. Of these 1,746 households were in a ‘reasonable preference’ category 8.
4.34
These figures however include tenants currently living in affordable housing, whereas the analysis
herein excludes such households where my moving they would release a home for another
household. Of the 2,432 households on the Register, 704 are those seeking transfers, rather than
new applicants.
Newly-Arising Need
4.35
To estimate newly-arising (projected future) need we have looked at two key groups of households
based on the PPG. These are:
 Newly forming households; and
 Existing households falling into need.
Newly-Forming Households
4.36
For newly-forming households we have estimated (through our demographic modelling) the number
of new households likely to form per annum over the 2013-33 period and then applied an
affordability test. This has been undertaken by considering the changes in households in specific
10-year age bands relative to numbers in the age band below 10 years previously to provide an
8
This is defined in the Housing Act 1996 and includes people who are homeless or at risk of becoming homeless, living in
unsatisfactory housing conditions (including in an overcrowded home or in insanitary conditions), those that need to move on welfare or
medical grounds or where they need to move to avoid hardship.
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estimate of gross household formation. This differs from numbers presented in the demographic
projections which are for net household growth.
4.37
The number of newly-forming households are limited to households forming who are aged under 45.
This is consistent with advice in the 2007 SHMA Guidance which notes after age 45 that headship
(household formation) rates ‘plateau’. There may be a small number of household formations
beyond age 45 (e.g. due to relationship breakdown) although the number is expected to be fairly
small when compared with formation of younger households.
4.38
The estimates of gross new household formation have been based on outputs from our core
demographic projection (based on the 2012 SNPP). In looking at the likely affordability of newlyforming households we have drawn on wider evidence, including from the English Housing Survey.
This establishes that the average income of newly-forming households is around 84% of the figure
for all households.
4.39
We have therefore adjusted the overall household income data to reflect the lower average income
for newly-forming households. The adjustments have been made by changing the distribution of
income by bands such that average income level is 84% of the all household average. In doing this
we are able to calculate the proportion of households unable to afford market housing without any
form of subsidy (such as LHA/HB). Our assessment suggests that overall around 39% of newlyforming households will be unable to afford market housing and that a total of 579 new households
will have a need on average in each year to 2033.
Table 23: Estimated Level of Housing Need from Newly Forming Households (per annum)
Area
Number of new
households
Aylesbury Vale
1,495
Source: Projection Modelling/Income analysis
% unable to
afford
Total in need
38.8%
579
Existing Households falling into Housing Need
4.40
The second element of newly arising need is existing households falling into need. To assess this
we have used information from CoRe. We have looked at households who have been housed over
the past five years - this group will represent the flow of households onto the Housing Register over
a five year period. From this we have discounted any newly forming households (e.g. those
currently living with family) as well as households who have transferred from another social rented
property. An affordability test has also been applied, although relatively few households are
estimated to have sufficient income to afford market housing.
4.41
This method for assessing existing households falling into need is consistent with the 2007 SHMA
Guidance which says on page 46 that ‘Partnerships should estimate the number of existing
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households falling into need each year by looking at recent trends. This should include households
who have entered the housing register and been housed within the year as well as households
housed outside of the register (such as priority homeless households applicants)’.
4.42
Following the analysis through suggests a need arising from 210 existing households each year –
this is about 0.3% of all households living in the District (in 2013).
Supply of Affordable Housing
4.43
The future supply of affordable housing is the flow of affordable housing arising from the existing
stock that is available to meet future need. It is split between the annual supply of social/affordable
rent relets and the annual supply of relets/sales within the intermediate sector.
4.44
The PPG suggests that the estimate of likely future relets from the social rented stock should be
based on past trend data which can be taken as a prediction for the future. We have used
information from the Continuous Recording system (CoRe) to establish past patterns of social
housing turnover. Our figures include general needs and supported lettings but exclude lettings of
new properties plus an estimate of the number of transfers from other social rented homes. These
exclusions are made to ensure that the figures presented reflect relets from the existing stock.
4.45
On the basis of past trend data is has been estimated that 361 units of social/affordable rented
housing are likely to become available each year moving forward.
Table 24: Social/Affordable Rented Housing Supply (per annum - past 3 years)
Count
Total lettings
% as non-newbuild
Lettings in existing stock
% non-transfers
Sub-total
% non-temporary housing
Total lettings to new tenants
670
78.4%
526
68.6%
361
100.0%
361
Source: CoRe
4.46
The supply figure is for social/affordable rented housing only and whilst the stock of intermediate
housing in Aylesbury Vale is not significant compared to the social/affordable rented stock it is likely
that some housing does become available each year (e.g. resales of shared ownership). For the
purposes of this assessment we have estimated the likely size and turnover in the intermediate
stock on the basis of 2011 Census data (and assuming a turnover half of the rate seen in the
social/affordable rented stock). From this it is estimated that around 12 additional properties might
become available per annum. The total supply of affordable housing is therefore estimated to be
373 per annum.
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Table 25: Supply of Affordable Housing
Area
Social/affordable
rented relets
Intermediate
housing ‘relets’
Total supply (per
annum)
361
12
373
Aylesbury Vale
Source: Derived from CoRe and Census (2011) analysis
4.47
In addition to the supply from the re-lets of existing stock, the Council’s monitoring data indicates
that there is a committed supply of 1,518 affordable homes on sites with planning consent. This
comprises homes which are yet to be built. This figure for the supply from the development pipeline
is subtracted from the current affordable housing need in the assessment of net need for affordable
housing.
Net Housing Need
4.48
Table 26 shows our overall calculation of housing need. The analysis considers the annual need for
affordable housing over the period to 2033.
4.49
Overall the modelling suggests that 412 households per annum require support in meeting their
housing need.
Table 26: Estimated level of Housing Need (2015-33)
Aylesbury Vale
1,450
1518
-68
-4
A
Current Gross Affordable Need (2015)
B
Committed Supply of Affordable Housing
C
Total Net Current Affordable Need
D
Total Net Need per Annum to 2033
E
Annual Need from Newly-Forming Households
F
Annual Need from Existing Households Falling into Need
G
Total Annual Gross Newly-Arising Need (E + F)
H
Annual Supply from Relets of Social & Affordable Rented Homes
I
Annual Supply from Relets of Intermediate Housing
J
Total Future Annual Supply from Re-Lets (H + I)
361
12
373
K
Annual Net Need for Affordable Housing (D + G - J)
412
579
210
789
Source: Census (2011)/CORE/Projection Modelling and affordability analysis
Sensitivity to Income Thresholds
4.50
Figures for affordable housing need derived through the Basic Needs Assessment Model are
sensitive to the income threshold used. A 30% threshold has been used in the main modelling for
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consistency with general practice nationally although it is worthwhile considering the implications of
alternative thresholds.
4.51
To understand the implications of the income threshold, we sensitivity tested affordable housing
need assuming variant levels of income spent on housing costs. Table 27 summarises the findings.
In particular, we can see that an assumption of households spending 40% gross income on housing
costs then need falls to 162 households per annum (down from 412 using a 30% threshold).
Table 27: Estimated Annual Housing Need at Variant Income Thresholds
@ 25%
@ 30%
Backlog Need
9
-4
Newly forming households
705
579
Existing households falling into need
233
210
Supply from relets of existing stock
373
373
Net Need
574
412
Source: Census (2011)/CORE/Projection Modelling and affordability analysis
@ 35%
-14
478
188
373
279
@ 40%
-23
388
170
373
162
Role of the Private Rented Sector in Meeting Housing Need
4.52
As well as considering the supply of social/affordable rented and intermediate housing it is
important to examine the extent to which the private rented sector (through the Local Housing
Allowance (LHA) system) is meeting the needs of households in the area. We have therefore used
data from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) to look at the number of LHA supported
private rented homes. As of May 2014 it is estimated that there were 2,303 benefit claimants in the
Private Rented Sector. This is just 3% higher than the number observed three years earlier (in May
2011).
4.53
What this information does not tell us is how many lettings are made each year to tenants claiming
benefit as this will depend on the turnover of stock. From English Housing Survey we estimate that
the proportion of households within the Private Rented Sector which are “new lettings” each year is
around 13% (i.e. stripping out the effect of households moving from one private rented property to
another). Applying this to the number of LHA claimants in the Private Rented Sector (PRS) gives us
an estimate of 299 private sector lettings per annum to new LHA claimants in the District. This
figure is derived from claimants rather than households and it is possible that there are a number of
multiple LHA claimant households (i.e. in the HMO sector).
4.54
Comparing this to the estimated affordable housing need, it is clear that based on current market
dynamics the PRS makes a substantial contribution to meeting the needs of households requiring
support. It is not however appropriate to treat the Private Rented Sector as a form of affordable
housing as there is no guarantee that it will continue to be available to households requiring support.
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However, it should be recognised that, in practice, the Private Rented Sector does make a
significant contribution to filling the gap in relation to meeting housing need and given the levels of
affordable housing need shown, the Private Rented Sector is likely to continue to be used to some
degree to make up for the shortfall of genuine affordable housing for the foreseeable future.
4.55
The extent to which the Council wishes to see the Private Rented Sector being used to make up for
shortages of affordable housing is a matter for policy intervention and is outside the scope of this
report. However it should be recognised that the Private Rented Sector does not provide secure
tenancies and that standards within the sector are likely to be lower than for social rented properties.
Furthermore there are households with specific housing needs who may not be able to find suitable
accommodation within the Private Rented Sector.
Need for Different Types of Affordable Housing
4.56
Having studied housing costs, incomes and affordable housing need the next step is to make an
estimate of the proportion of affordable housing need that should be met through provision of
different housing products. The income information presented earlier in this section has therefore
been used to estimate the proportion of households who are likely to be able to afford intermediate
housing and the number for whom only social or affordable rented housing will be affordable. There
are three main types of affordable housing that can be studied in this analysis:
 Intermediate
 Affordable rent
 Social rent
4.57
Whilst the process of separating households into different income bands for analytical purposes is
quite straightforward, this does not necessarily fully indicate what sort of affordable housing they
might be able to afford or occupy.
4.58
For example, a household with an income close to being able to afford market housing might be
able to afford intermediate or affordable rent but may be prevented from accessing certain
intermediate products (such as shared ownership) as they have an insufficient savings to cover a
deposit. Such a household might therefore be allocated to affordable rented or intermediate rented
housing as the most suitable solution.
4.59
The distinction between social and affordable rented housing is also complex. Whilst rents for
affordable rented housing would be expected to be higher than social rents, this does not
necessarily mean that such a product would be reserved for households with a higher income. In
reality, as long as the rent to be paid falls at or below LHA limits then it will be accessible to a range
of households (many of whom will need to claim housing benefit). Local authorities’ tenancy
strategies might set policies regarding the types of households which might be allocated affordable
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rented homes; and many authorities will seek to avoid where possible households having to claim
higher levels of housing benefit. This however needs to be set against other factors, including
viability and the availability of grant funding. Over the current spending period to 2015 grant funding
is primarily available to support delivery of affordable rented homes. A significant level of affordable
housing delivery is however through developer contributions (Section 106 Agreements).
4.60
For these reasons it is difficult to exactly pin down what proportion of additional affordable homes
should be provided through different affordable tenure categories. In effect there is a degree of
overlap between different affordable housing tenures, as the figure below shows.
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Overlap between Affordable Housing Tenures
4.61
Given this overlap, for analytical purposes the following categories have been defined:
 Households who can afford 80% or more of market rent levels;
 Households who would potentially be able to afford more than existing social rent levels but
could not afford 80% of market rents;
 Households who can afford no more than existing social rent levels (or would require housing
benefit, or an increased level of housing benefit to do so).
4.62
The first of these categories would include equity-based intermediate products such as shared
ownership and shared equity homes. The latter two categories are both rented housing and in
reality can be considered together (both likely to be provided by Registered Providers (or the
Council) with some degree of subsidy). Additionally, both affordable rented and social rented
housing is likely to be targeted at the same group of households; many of whom will be claiming
Housing Benefit. For this reason the last two categories are considered together for the purposes of
drawing conclusions.
4.63
Detailed information on households’ savings is not available. It has therefore been assumed that
around half of all households with an income which would allow them to afford 80% or more of
market rents would represent the potential market for intermediate products such as shared
ownership and shared equity homes – in reality a different proportion of these households might
only be able to afford some sort of rental product.
4.64
Taking the gross numbers for affordable housing need and comparing this against the supply from
relets of existing stock, the following net need arises within the different categories. Overall the
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analysis suggests around a fifth of housing could be intermediate with the remaining four-fifths
being either social or affordable rented.
4.65
The calculations below for need for different types of affordable housing differs from that above as it
does not include committed supply of affordable housing.
Table 28: Estimated Affordable Need by Type of Affordable Housing
Intermediate
Supply
Net need
Total need
Aylesbury Vale
95
12
% of total
18%
Source: Affordable Housing Needs Analysis
4.66
83
Social/affordable rented
Total
Supply
Net need
need
740
361
379
82%
In determining policies for affordable housing provision on individual sites, the analysis in the table
above should be brought together with other local evidence such as from the Housing Register.
Consideration could also be given to areas with high concentrations of social rented housing where
additional intermediate housing might be desirable to improve the housing mix and to create
‘housing pathways’.
Implications







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A net need is identified from 412 households per annum who would require support in
meeting their housing needs. These households are eligible for affordable housing.
Currently around 300 such households per year find accommodation within the Private
Rented Sector, supported by Local Housing Allowance. However the sector does not provide
security of tenure and changes to LHA may reduce the willingness of landlords to take on
households in housing need.
The Planning Practice Guidance identifies that the affordable housing need should be
considered in the context of its likely delivery as a proportion of mixed market and affordable
housing developments. An increase in total housing figures included in the local plan should
be considered where it could help deliver the required number of affordable homes.
With 35% affordable housing delivery, 350 affordable homes would be delivered if 1000
homes per annum were built, in line with the demographic projections. The affordable
housing evidence provides some basis for considering higher levels of overall housing
provision within the Vale of Aylesbury Local Plan.
However it should be recognised that the affordable needs figures are derived from a quite
different approach to the demographic projections, with part of the need arising from existing
households who require an alternative form of accommodation (such as due to insecurity of
tenure or overcrowding). Meeting the needs of these households will release dwellings which
other households can occupy.
Increasing affordable housing delivery may however assist in improving new household
formation amongst younger households. This is considered further in the next section.
18% of the identified affordable housing need is for intermediate housing and 82% for social
or affordable rented provision.
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MARKET SIGNALS
5.1
The NPPF is clear that plans should take account of market signals, such as land prices and
housing affordability (Paragraphs 17 and 158). The Planning Practice Guidance clarifies this setting
out that:
“The housing need number suggested by household projections (the starting point) should be
adjusted to reflect appropriate market signals, as well as other market indicators of the
balance between the demand for and supply of dwellings. Prices or rents rising faster than
the national/local average may well indicate particular market undersupply relative to
demand.” [ID. 2a-019]
5.2
The PPG sets out that studies should assess house prices and rents, land values, affordability,
rates of development as well as overcrowding, concealed and shared households. Appropriate
comparisons should be made (in terms of absolute levels and rates of change) with trends in the
HMA, similar areas and nationally. It sets out that:
“A worsening trend in any of these indicators will require upward adjustment to planned
housing numbers compared to ones based solely on household projections.” [ID. 2a-020]
5.3
In interrogating market signals we have sought to assess trends over the 2001-11 period, as this is
the period from which household formation trends in the 2011-based Household Projections are
derived. We have also considered more recent trends and current performance, to assess whether
there is a case for adjusting levels of housing provision (relative to those shown in the projections
thus far).
House Prices
5.4
Across Aylesbury Vale, the average (mean) house price (Jan 2013 – Apr 2014) is slightly over
£273,700 whilst the median is £237,450. House prices in Aylesbury Vale are lower than the
average seen across the Buckinghamshire local authorities (Aylesbury Vale District Council,
Chiltern District Council, Milton Keynes Council, South Bucks District Council, and Wycombe
District Council) with only Milton Keynes having lower average prices. The average mean across
Buckinghamshire is £319,350 and the median is £246,000.
5.5
Figure 41 profiles house prices in Aylesbury Vale compared to the county, region, and national
averages 1998 to 2007 (i.e. the pre-recession decade). This shows that house prices in Aylesbury
Vale have consistently been very similar to the South East average which is below the
Buckinghamshire average but above the national average. The DCLG data treats Milton Keynes
separately and does not include Milton Keynes data within the Buckinghamshire average. For
comparison we have included Milton Keynes figures as a separate data series and this shows
average prices in Milton Keynes are very similar to the national average and well below the other
Buckinghamshire authorities. Price growth in Aylesbury Vale over the decade has been roughly in
line with regional and sub-regional trends but has outstripped the national growth rate. Over the
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decade, the median house price in Aylesbury Vale increased by £143,500. The Buckinghamshire
increase was £169,250. The South East increase was £147,000 and across England it was
£117,000.
Median House Price (1998-2007)
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
2004
2005
2006
2007
Milton Keynes UA
Source: DCLG Live Tables: Land Registry Data
5.6
Since 2007, trends in house prices have understandably been very different reflecting the economic
backdrop. Aylesbury Vale posted notable price falls from mid-2008 into 2009 at the onset of the
recession, as was the case regionally and nationally. Prices recovered to some extent in 2009
reaching pre-recession levels by mid-2010 before plateauing. They have remaining at a similar level
since 2010. By the second quarter of 2013 the median house price in Aylesbury Vale was £8,000
(3.5%) above the pre-recession peak. By comparison, the median Buckinghamshire price has
increased by 7.4% while the national average has remained the same over this period.
5.7
The 2001 and 2011 Censuses show how household formation rates changed over this period. Over
this decade house prices in the Vale increased by £104,000 (83%).
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Median House Price (2008-2013)
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2008
2009
2010
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
2011
2012
2013
Milton Keynes UA
Source: DCLG Live Tables: Land Registry Data
5.8
We have also analysed house prices achieved over the last 16 months (January 2013 to April 2014)
in more detail to gain an understanding of the latest dynamics for different property types in
Aylesbury and other Buckinghamshire districts.
5.9
As can be seen in Figure 43, median house prices in Aylesbury Vale are fairly close to the countywide average for all dwelling types. Median prices in South Buckinghamshire and Chiltern are
considerably above the values seen in the other districts, with Wycombe and Aylesbury Vale sitting
either side of the county average, and prices in Milton Keynes lowest for all dwelling types.
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Median House Prices (Jan 2013- April 2014)
£900,000
£800,000
£700,000
£600,000
£500,000
£400,000
£300,000
£200,000
£100,000
£Detached
Aylesbury Vale
Chiltern
Milton Keynes
South Bucks
Wycombe
Buckinghamshire
£355,000
£592,500
£287,500
£793,500
£450,000
£395,000
SemiDetached
£235,000
£357,000
£190,000
£365,000
£275,000
£245,000
Terrace
Flats
Overall
£187,495
£271,500
£162,750
£305,000
£246,000
£200,000
£130,000
£184,950
£128,000
£270,000
£161,250
£152,000
£237,452
£380,000
£189,500
£415,000
£282,000
£246,000
Source: GLH Analysis: Land Registry Price Paid Data
Sales Volumes and Effective Demand
5.10
Sales volumes are an important indicator of effective demand for market housing. We have
benchmarked sales performance against long-term trends to assess relative demand. Figure 44
benchmarks annual sales across Aylesbury Vale, Buckinghamshire, regionally and nationally over
the period 1998 to 2012. It uses an index where 1 is the average annual sales over the prerecession decade1998-2007.
5.11
As illustrated in Figure 43, sales volumes nationally experienced a significant drop between 2007
and 2008 followed by a relatively modest subsequent recovery. Sales trends in Aylesbury Vale and
Buckinghamshire have experienced a slightly bigger recovery since 2009 than the national average.
5.12
Although taken from a separate data set, sales over the last 16 months (January 2013 to April
2014) across the District numbered almost 4,126 indicating a slight improvement on recent years,
although still well below the pre-recession peak.
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Indexed Analysis of Sales Trends, 1998 – 2012
Average Annual Sales 1998-2007=1
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
Milton Keynes UA
Source: DCLG Live Tables
Rental Trends
5.13
Median rental values in Aylesbury Vale are (as of June 2014) £695pcm which is the lowest of the
Buckinghamshire authorities (including Milton Keynes), and is considerably below the county-wide
average of £850pcm. By way of comparison, median rents in South Bucks are £1200pcm, in
Chiltern its £990, £850 in Wycombe, and £738 in Milton Keynes.
5.14
Over the last 3 years private rental values in Aylesbury Vale have grown by 4.6% which is above
the national average of 3.5% but well below the Buckinghamshire county increase of 9.7%. Growth
in Aylesbury is similar to that seen in Milton Keynes (4.2%). The VOA Private Rental Market
Statistics data does not support longer-term analysis.
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Trend in Average Private Rental Values (2011-2014)
Index: 1 = October 2011 Value
1.14
1.12
1.10
1.08
1.06
1.04
1.02
1.00
0.98
0.96
0.94
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
Milton Keynes UA
Source: VOA Private Rental Data
5.15
Figure 46 shows trends in the number of rental transactions recorded by the VOA, indexed against
October 2011 figures. This shows a solid decline in the number of rental transactions in Aylesbury
Vale over this period with 23% fewer rental transactions recorded at the end of the period than at
the beginning. Milton Keynes has seen a similar decline of 29% over this period.
5.16
Nationally we have seen a reduction in the count of rents which is an indication of households
returning to owner occupation as a result of improved mortgage availability and the impact of
Government schemes such as Help to Buy. While there has been a general trend of decline in PRS
in county-wide, regional, and national geographies, the decline in Aylesbury Vale and Milton
Keynes has been particularly notable.
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Trend in Private Rental Transactions (September 2011 to June 2014)
Index: 1 = October 2011 Value
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
Milton Keynes UA
Source: VOA Private Rental Data
Affordability of Market Housing
Price-Income Ratios
5.17
In line with the PPG, we have considered evidence of affordability by looking specifically at the
relationship between lower quartile house prices and incomes.
5.18
As of 2013 the lower quartile house price in Aylesbury Vale was 8.1 times the lower quartile
earnings in the District. This is above the national average of 6.5 but below the Buckinghamshire
average of 9.4. By way of comparison the LQ affordability ratio in South Bucks is 13.4, Chiltern is
12.0, Wycombe is 8.9, and Milton Keynes is 6.4.
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Lower Quartile Affordability Trend (1997-2013)
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
Milton Keynes UA
England
Source: DCLG Live Tables
5.19
As a general observation we can see that across all areas, the affordability of property has
worsened quite markedly over the past 15 years. The ratio of affordability peaked in 2007 before
experiencing a post-recession trough in 2009. Affordability ratios in Aylesbury Vale have since risen
but have fallen again in recent years. The lower quartile affordability ratio in Aylesbury Vale
increased from 5.9 to 8.5 between 2001-11.
5.20
We have also considered and compared this to the median house price-earnings ratio to identify
whether affordability is an issue across the market or within a particular segment. In Aylesbury Vale
the median ratio is slightly higher than the lower quartile ratio, indicating that the problem of
affordability in the District is slightly less severe at the lower end of the market. This is similar to the
situation nationally. Conversely the lower quartile ratio is higher in the other Buckinghamshire
authorities indicating worse affordability at the lower end of the market.
Table 29: Comparison of Lower Quartile and Median Affordability (2013)
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
Milton Keynes UA
England
Lower Quartile Ratio
8.11
9.40
6.75
6.45
Median Ratio
8.35
9.29
6.41
6.72
Difference
0.25
-0.12
-0.34
0.27
Source: DCLG Live Tables
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Changing Tenure Profile
5.21
A combination of the deteriorating affordability of market homes, restricted access to mortgage
products and a lack of social housing supply over the 2001-11 decade has resulted in fewer
households being able to buy and increased pressures on the existing affordable housing stock.
This has contributed to strong growth in the Private Rented Sector.
5.22
Owner occupation has fallen by 4.1 percentage points (pp) in Aylesbury Vale between 2001 and
2011. This is due to a decline in the number of homeowners relying on a mortgage or loan to
finance their purchase which has fallen by 7 pp over this period. This is a trend which has been
seen regionally and nationally, and has been more pronounced in Aylesbury Vale than elsewhere.
Conversely there has been a growth in homeownership via outright ownership and a substantial
growth in the private rented sector over this period.
Change in Households by Tenure, 2001-11
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
Owned: Owns Owned: Owns
outright
with a
mortgage or
loan
Owned:
Shared
ownership
Aylesbury Vale
Social rented Private rented
South East
Living rent
free
England
Source: 2001 & 2011 Censuses
5.23
The proportion of households who have been renting privately increased by 5.4 pp in Aylesbury
Vale over the 2001-11 period.
Housing Completions
5.24
Figure 49 shows housing completions in Aylesbury Vale since 2001/02. There have been 9,028
new dwellings built in the District over this period.
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5.25
Whilst housing provision has not kept pace on a consistent basis with previously-set housing
targets, it is notable that housing delivery continued through the recession despite the notable
reduction in overall sales. We consider that this reflects continued delivery on larger housing sites,
particularly at Aylesbury, where upfront infrastructure investment had been committed. Housing
delivery has increased further still since 2011 as Figure 49 shows.
Housing Completions – Aylesbury Vale
1200
Net Completions
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
Source: AVDC Monitoring Reports
5.26
Figure 50 plots the growth of new dwellings in Aylesbury Vale and the Buckinghamshire authorities
since 2001. The figures are indexed to 2001 figures. There has been a 12% growth in dwelling
stock in Aylesbury Vale over this period which is above the Buckinghamshire average of 9%.
Notable is the high delivery in Milton Keynes with a 21% growth in dwelling stock since 2001.
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Change in Dwelling Stock (Estimate), 2001 – 2013
Indexed Growth (2001=1)
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Aylesbury Vale
Chiltern
Milton Keynes UA
South Bucks
Wycombe
Buckinghamshire
Source: DCLG Live Tables
Occupancy of Housing
5.27
Over the 2001-11 decade the occupancy of housing in the District changed. Levels of overoccupied homes (measured using the Census occupancy rating) increased by 1.1 percentage
points in Aylesbury. Whilst this does indicate increased intensity of occupancy of housing, the level
of growth, and overall levels of over-occupancy, are lower than seen at both regional and national
levels.
5.28
Similarly the number of shared households, shown by levels of HMOs recorded by the Census,
increased by 0.8 pp over the 2001-11 decade. The proportion of residents living in HMOs has seen
growth from 3.7% to 4.5% over the decade which again is lower than the growth seen elsewhere.
Table 30: Changes in Over Occupied and Houses in Multiple Occupation (2001-2011)
2001
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
5.3%
5.0%
5.9%
7.1%
Over Occupied
2011
Growth
6.3%
6.3%
7.5%
8.7%
1.1%
1.2%
1.5%
1.6%
2001
HMOs
2011
Growth
3.7%
4.1%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.9%
5.4%
5.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
1.3%
Source: 2001 & 2011 Censuses
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Implications
5.29
House prices in Aylesbury Vale are on average just below the average across Buckinghamshire,
but above those in Milton Keynes. This is the case across dwelling types. In the pre-recession
period prices grew in line with sub-regional and regional trends. They have been relatively stable
since 2010. Nonetheless over the 2001-11 period, the average house price increased by over
£100,000.
5.30
House prices in Aylesbury Vale are 8.11 (lower quartile) and 8.35 (median) above annual incomes.
Affordability trends reflect house price levels with the District, with a lower affordability ratio than the
average of the Buckingham authorities, but higher than Milton Keynes. Affordability in Aylesbury
Vale is notably more severe than the national average, as is the case across the Greater South
East.
5.31
Housing delivery in Aylesbury Vale has been similar to that in other Buckinghamshire authorities,
with stronger relative delivery in recent years. Housing delivery has been maintained through the
recession in contrast to many other areas, but has fallen below targets in some years. Overall there
has been a 12% increase in the dwelling stock since 2001 which is a greater increase than any of
the other Buckinghamshire authorities except Milton Keynes.
5.32
The trend between 2001-11 was of decreasing numbers of homeowners in Aylesbury Vale (a 4.1 pp
fall) with a corresponding growth in the PRS sector. This is a trend which has been seen nationally.
While there has been a corresponding long term increase in the number of people occupying
private rented properties, Aylesbury Vale has also seen a long term increase in the number of
homeowners owning their property outright. This may be influenced by households’ access to
mortgage finance, and the sales evidence in particular shows a notable reduction (and limited
subsequent recovery) in sales of market housing post 2008. The 2011 Census points to a moderate
increase in overcrowded and shared households, but at a lower level than has occurred at the
regional and national level.
5.33
The analysis of market signals points to a combination of the increasing house prices and declining
affordability over the 2001-11 decade. Alongside this we have seen a deep economic recession and
market downturn, from which we have yet to see a full recovery. The demographic analysis
indicates that levels of household formation, particularly for younger households, has fallen.
5.34
Furthermore the analysis in Section 4 shows that there is a notable level of need for affordable
housing. Deteriorating affordability of market housing will have contributed to the identified
affordable housing need, which considers need from households who cannot afford market housing
without financial support.
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5.35
The market signals and affordable housing evidence together indicate that it be appropriate to
consider an adjustment to the overall assessment of housing need to improve affordability over time
in line with the approach outlined in the Planning Practice Guidance.
What scale of adjustment would be reasonable?
5.36
The Planning Practice Guidance sets out that:
“In areas where an upward adjustment [to the assessment of housing need] is required, plan
makers should set this adjustment at a level that is reasonable. The more significant the
affordability constraints (as reflected in rising prices and rents, and worsening affordability
ratio) and the stronger other indicators of high demand (eg the differential between land
prices), the larger the improvement in affordability needed and, therefore, the larger the
additional supply response should be.”
5.37
The Guidance does not however set out how such an adjustment should be quantified. It simply
sets out that it should be ‘reasonable.’
5.38
To consider this issue further we have sought to use the demographic analysis to assess the
degree to which household formation levels have been constrained for younger age groups, and
what scale of adjustment to housing provision would be necessary for these to improve. A key
impact of improving affordability and increasing supply of affordable housing would be to increase
household formation amongst younger households.
5.39
Our analysis considers age specific data about the extent to which there has been constrained
household formation in the HMA. When we consider age-specific data it is notable that those aged
25-34 have lower headship rates than was expected in the 2008-based projections, with the rate
expected to decline moving forward in the 2012-based projections. To model the potential scale of
housing which might be necessary to support a further improvement in household formation rates
for younger households, all other factors being equal, we have therefore undertaken a sensitivity
analysis considered the implications of returning the household formation rates of the 25-34 age
group back to the 2008-based level by 2033; and a second adjustment where the figure is taken
back to the level shown for 2001.
5.40
Figure 51 shows headship rates for people aged 25-34 under a range of different scenarios. The
data clearly shows that in the 2012-based projection there was expected to be a continued
decrease in formation rates, whilst our market signals uplift shows an improvement to return to
levels in 2001 by 2033 (the rates are assumed to improve post-2013). It will be observed that the
rates shown do not exactly match those in the 2012-based projections– this is due to the data being
separately applied to male and female populations and so is additionally influenced by the balance
between the different sexes within the population. Differences are however fairly minor.
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Proportionn of Persons as Heads of Household
Projected Household Formation Rates for those aged 25-34 – Aylesbury Vale
0.50
0.45
0.40
CLG 2012-based
0.35
CLG 2011-based
Market signals uplift (2)
0.30
2033
2031
2029
2027
2025
2023
2021
2019
2017
2015
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
Year
Source: Derived from CLG data
5.41
We have used this analysis to quantify the potential scale of impacts associated with a more
notable improvement in housing market circumstances and increase in household formation rates
over the period to 2033. The analysis suggests that to return household formation rates for those
aged 25-34 to 2001 levels would increase housing need by between 111 - 113 dwellings per annum
depending on the scenario being tested. With this modelled ‘affordability adjustment,’ the housing
need linked to the 2012-based SNPP rises from 971 to 1,082 dwellings per annum. With the
London adjustment, this figure increases to 1,112.
Sensitivity Analysis – Housing Need with Increased Household Formation Rates
of those aged 25-34
Return to 2001 levels
2012based
rates
Affordability
Adjustment
Change
2012-based SNPP
971
1,082
111
2012-based SNPP with London Adjustment
999
1,112
113
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Implications



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The analysis indicates some affordability pressures in Aylesbury Vale, particularly resulting
from increases in house prices over the 2001-11 decade. Over this period the evidence
suggests that affordability of market housing for sale deteriorated, and we saw an increase in
households renting, as well as more shared and overcrowded homes. Alongside this the
need for affordable housing has risen.
The evidence suggests that the situation is improving, with evidence of some improvement in
the affordability of market housing since 2008; resulting from growth in house prices and
rents which has fallen below inflation.
The evidence indicates that declining affordability over the 2001-11 decade has reduced the
ability of younger households to form. Overall it provides strong evidence for seeking to
adjust overall housing provision to support affordability improvements in the future. Bringing
the evidence together we recommend an upwards adjustment of 11% to the demographicbased projections to support improved formation of younger households.
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NEED FOR DIFFERENT SIZES OF HOMES
Introduction
6.1
As noted in Section 4, there are a range of factors which influence housing demand. These factors
play out at different spatial scales and influence both the level of housing demand (in terms of
aggregate household growth) and the nature of demand for different types, tenures and sizes of
homes. It is important to understand that the housing market is influenced by macro-economic
factors, as well as the housing market conditions at a regional and local level.
6.2
In this section, consideration is given to the implications of demographic drivers on need/demand
for different sizes of homes in different tenures. The assessment is intended to provide an
understanding of the implications of demographic dynamics on need and demand for different sizes
of homes. This however needs to be brought together with an understanding of wider factors
including:
 The need and opportunity to develop the housing offer;
 The findings of the housing needs analysis which provide a short-term view of requirements;
 Economic factors, such as trends in employment, overall and by occupation; and
 Local policy objectives.
6.3
The analysis in this section seeks to use the information available about the size and structure of
the population and household structures; and consider what impact this may have on the sizes of
housing required in the future. For the purposes of this analysis, demographic change as indicated
in the core demographic projection has been used – delivery of 19,416 additional homes from 2013
to 2033 (based on the 2012-based SNPP and 2012-based CLG household projections and without
any additional adjustments).
6.4
It should be noted that this projection will not necessarily be translated into policy but has been
used to indicate the likely need for different sizes of homes moving forward. Were a projection with
a different housing figure used then the outputs would be expected to be broadly similar.
Methodology
6.5
Figure 53 describes the broad methodology employed in the housing market modelling. Data is
drawn from a range of sources including the 2011 Census and demographic projections.
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Stages in the Housing Market Model
Establish how households of different ages occupy homes (by
tenure)
Project how the profile of households of different ages will change in
future
Draw together housing needs, viability and funding issues to consider
affordable housing delivery
Model future requirements for market and affordable housing by size
and compare to existing profile of homes
Output recommendations for housing requirements by tenure and
size of housing
Understanding how Households Occupy Homes
6.6
Whilst the demographic projections provide a good indication of how the population and household
structure will develop it is not a simple task to convert the net increase in the number of households
in to a suggested profile for additional housing to be provided. The main reason for this is that in the
market sector households are able to buy or rent any size of property (subject to what they can
afford) and therefore knowledge of the profile of households in an area does not directly transfer
into the sizes of property to be provided. The size of housing which households occupy relates
more to their wealth and age than the number of people which they contain.
6.7
For example, there is no reason why a single person cannot buy (or choose to live in) a four
bedroom home as long as they can afford it and hence projecting an increase in single person
households does not automatically translate in to a need for smaller units. This issue is less
relevant in the affordable sector (particularly since the introduction of the social sector size criteria)
although there will still be some level of under-occupation moving forward with regard to older
person and working households who may be able to continue to under-occupy their current homes.
6.8
The general methodology is to use the information derived in the projections about the number of
household reference persons (HRPs) in each age and sex group and apply this to the profile of
housing within these groups. The data for this analysis has been formed from a commissioned table
by ONS (Table C1213 which provides relevant data for all local authorities in England) with data
then calibrated to be consistent with 2011 Census data (e.g. about house sizes in different tenure
groups and locations).
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6.9
Figure 54 shows an estimate of how the average number of bedrooms varies by different ages of
HRP and different sexes by broad tenure group. In the market sector the average size of
accommodation rises over time to typically reach a peak around the 50-54 age group. In the
affordable sector this peak appears earlier. After this peak the average dwelling size decreases –
possibly due to a number of people down-sizing as they get older. It is also notable that the average
size for affordable housing dwellings are lower than those for market housing whilst in market
housing male HRPs live in larger accommodation for all age groups (with no particular trend being
seen in the affordable sector).
Average Bedrooms by Age, Sex and Tenure
3.5
Average number of bedrooms
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Under 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
25
Male - market
Female - market
Male - affordable
85+
Female - affordable
Source: Derived from ONS Commissioned Table C1213 and 2011 Census
Establishing a Baseline Position
6.10
As of 2013 it is estimated that there were 72,080 households living in Aylesbury Vale. Analysis of
Census data linked to the demographic baseline provides an estimate of the profile of the housing
stock in 2013, as shown in the table below. This shows that an estimated 14% of households live in
affordable housing with 86% being in the market sector (the size of the affordable sector has been
fixed by reference to an estimate of the number of occupied social rented and shared ownership
homes in the 2011 Census along with an estimate of growth in the sector from 2011 to 2013 from
data in CLG Live Table 100). The data also suggests that homes in the market sector are generally
bigger than in the affordable sector with 71% having three or more bedrooms compared to 37% for
affordable housing.
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6.11
These figures are for households rather than dwellings due to information about the sizes of vacant
homes across the whole stock (i.e. market and affordable) not being readily available. For the
purposes of analysis this will not make any notable difference to the outcome. The household
projections have however been translated into dwelling figures by including a 3.8% vacancy
allowance when studying the final outputs of the market modelling.
Table 31: Estimated Profile of Dwellings in 2013 by Size
Size of housing
Market
Affordable
Total
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
1 bedroom
4,108
6.6%
2,929
29.0%
7,036
9.8%
2 bedrooms
13,813
22.3%
3,447
34.1%
17,260
23.9%
3 bedrooms
24,896
40.2%
3,359
33.3%
28,255
39.2%
4+ bedrooms
19,170
30.9%
360
3.6%
19,530
27.1%
Total
61,986
100.0%
10,094
100.0%
72,080
100.0%
% in tenure
86.0%
14.0%
100.0%
Source: Derived from 2011 Census
Tenure Assumptions
6.12
The housing market model has been used to estimate the need for different sizes of property over
the 20-year period from 2013 to 2033. The model works by looking at the types and sizes of
accommodation occupied by different ages of residents, and attaching projected changes in the
population to this to project need and demand for different sizes of homes. However the way
households of different ages occupy homes differs between the market and affordable sectors (as
shown earlier). Thus it is necessary to consider what the mix of future housing will be in the market
and affordable sectors.
6.13
The key assumption here is not a policy target but possible delivery. The assumption is influenced
by a range of factors. The affordable housing needs analysis in this report provides evidence of
notable affordable need although the viability of providing affordable housing will limit the amount
that can be delivered. It is assumed (simply for modelling purposes) that an average of 30% of net
housing delivered will be of affordable housing It should be stressed that this is not a policy position
and has been applied simply for the purposes of providing outputs from the modelling process.
Key Findings: Market Housing
6.14
As has previously been identified, there are a range of factors which can be expected to influence
demand for housing. This analysis specifically looks at the implications of demographic drivers. It
uses a demographic-driven approach to quantify demand for different sizes of properties over the
20-year period from 2013 to 2033.
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6.15
The figures below show estimates of the sizes of market housing required from 2013 to 2033 based
on demographic trends for the whole of the District. The data suggests that the majority of the need
for market housing is for 3-bed properties.
Table 32: Estimated Size of Dwellings Needed 2013 to 2033 – Market Housing
Size
2013
2033
Additional
households
2013-2033
% of additional
households
1 bedroom
2 bedrooms
3 bedrooms
4+ bedrooms
Total
4,108
13,813
24,896
19,170
61,986
5,021
17,436
30,703
21,914
75,075
913
3,623
5,808
2,744
13,089
7.0%
27.7%
44.4%
21.0%
100.0%
Source: Housing Market Model
6.16
Figure 55 below shows how the estimated market requirement compares with the current stock of
housing (based on households (i.e. excluding the 3.8% vacancy allowance)). The data suggests
that housing requirements reinforce around the existing profile of stock, but with a slight shift
towards a requirement for smaller dwellings relative to the distribution of existing housing. This is
understandable given the fact that household sizes are expected to fall slightly in the future (which
itself is partly due to the ageing of the population). The current profile of market housing shows a
significant representation of larger properties with 3 or more bedrooms.
Impact of Demographic Trends on Market Housing Requirements by House Size,
2013 to 2033
35,000
Number of households in group
30,000
5,808
25,000
2,744
20,000
3,623
15,000
24,896
10,000
5,000
19,170
13,813
913
4,108
0
1 bedroom
2 bedrooms
2013
3 bedrooms
4+ bedrooms
2033
Source: Housing Market Model
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6.17
It is considered that it is appropriate through the planning system to seek to influence the balance of
types and sizes of market housing through the mix of sites allocated for development, rather than
specific policies relating to the proportion of homes of different sizes which are then applied to
specific sites. This approach is set out within NPPF (paragraph 50) which requires local planning
authorities to ‘identify the size, type, tenure and range of housing that is required in particular
locations, reflecting local demand’.
6.18
At the strategic level, a local authority in considering which sites to allocate, can consider what type
of development would likely be delivered on these sites. It can also influence housing mix implicitly
through policies on development densities.
Key Findings: Affordable Housing
6.19
The table and figure below show estimates of the sizes of affordable housing required based on the
analysis of demographic trends. The data suggests in the period between 2013 and 2033 that
around three-quarters of the requirement is for homes with one- or two-bedrooms with around a
quarter of the requirement being for larger homes with three or more bedrooms.
6.20
This analysis provides a longer-term view of need for affordable housing and does not reflect any
specific priorities such as for family households in need rather than single people. In addition, it
should be noted that smaller properties (i.e. one bedroom homes) typically offer limited flexibility in
accommodating the changing requirements of households, whilst delivery of larger properties can
help to meet the needs of households in high priority and to manage the housing stock by releasing
supply of smaller properties. That said, there may in the short-term be an increased requirement for
smaller homes as a result of welfare reforms limiting the amount of housing benefit being paid to
some working-age households.
Table 33: Estimated Size of Dwellings Needed 2013 to 2033 – Affordable Housing
Size
2013
2033
Additional
households
2013-2033
% of additional
households
1 bedroom
2 bedrooms
3 bedrooms
4+ bedrooms
Total
2,929
3,447
3,359
360
10,094
5,017
5,412
4,761
513
15,703
2,089
1,965
1,402
154
5,609
37.2%
35.0%
25.0%
2.7%
100.0%
Source: Housing Market Model
6.21
Figure 56 shows how the estimated affordable need compares with the stock of affordable housing
in 2013 – the figures are based on households (i.e. before adding in a vacancy allowance). Again,
the data shows that relative to the current stock there is a slight move towards a greater proportion
of smaller homes being required – this makes sense given that in the future household sizes are
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expected to drop whilst the population of older people will increase – older person households (as
shown earlier) are more likely to occupy smaller dwellings.
Impact of Demographic Trends on Affordable Housing Need by House Size, 2013
to 2033
Number of households in group
6,000
5,000
1,965
4,000
1,402
2,089
3,000
2,000
3,447
2,929
3,359
1,000
154
360
0
1 bedroom
2 bedrooms
2013
3 bedrooms
4+ bedrooms
2033
Source: Housing Market Model
Indicative Targets by Dwelling Size
6.22
Figure 57 summarises the above data in both the market and affordable sectors under the
modelling exercise. A 3.8% vacancy allowance has been factored in when moving from household
figures to estimates of housing need/demand.
Size of Housing Needed 2013 to 2033
Market
1 bedroom
Affordable
1 bedroom
7.0%
2 bedrooms
2 bedrooms
27.7%
3 bedrooms
44.4%
4+ bedrooms
20%
40%
35.0%
3 bedrooms
25.0%
4+ bedrooms
21.0%
0%
37.2%
60%
% of additional dwellings required
2.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
% of additional dwellings required
Source: Housing Market Model
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6.23
Whilst the outputs of the modelling provide estimates of the proportion of homes of different sizes
that should be provided there are a range of factors which should be taken into account in setting
policies for provision. This is particularly the case in the affordable sector where there are typically
issues around the demand for and turnover of one bedroom homes. Conclusions also need to
consider that the stock of four bedroom affordable housing is very limited and tends to have a very
low turnover. As a result, whilst the number of households coming forward for four or more bedroom
homes is typically quite small the ability for these needs to be met is even more limited.
6.24
It should also be recognised that local authorities have statutory homeless responsibilities towards
families with children and would therefore prioritise the needs of families over single person
households and couples. On this basis the profile of affordable housing to be provided would be
further weighted to two or more bedroom housing. In the short-term however there may be a need
to increase the supply of one-bedroom homes due to the social sector size criteria.
6.25
For these reasons it is suggested in converting the long-term modelled outputs into a profile of
housing to be provided (in the affordable sector) that the proportion of one bedroom homes required
is reduced slightly from these outputs with a commensurate increase in four or more bedroom
homes also being appropriate.
6.26
There are thus a range of factors which are relevant in considering policies for the mix of affordable
housing sought through development schemes. At a District-wide level, the analysis would support
policies for the mix of affordable housing of:
 1-bed properties: 35%
 2-bed properties: 35%
 3-bed properties: 25%
 4-bed properties: 5%
6.27
The strategic conclusions recognise the role which delivery of larger family homes can play in
releasing supply of smaller properties for other households; together with the limited flexibility which
one-bed properties offer to changing household circumstances which feed through into higher
turnover and management issues.
6.28
The need for affordable housing of different sizes will vary by area across the Council area and over
time. In considering the mix of homes to be provided within specific development schemes, the
information herein should be brought together with details of households currently on the Housing
Register in the local area and the stock and turnover of existing properties.
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6.29
In the market sector a profile of housing that closely matches the outputs of the modelling is
suggested. The recommendations take some account of the time period used for the modelling and
the fact that the full impact of the ageing population will not be experienced in the short-term. In
addition, as noted earlier, current constraints on mortgage finance is likely to suppress demand for
smaller units in the short-term (particularly those which would normally have high demand from firsttime buyers).
6.30
On the basis of these factors it is considered that the provision of market housing should be more
explicitly focused on delivering smaller family housing for younger households. On this basis the
following mix of market housing is recommended:
 1-bed properties: 5%
 2-bed properties: 30%
 3-bed properties: 45%
 4-bed properties: 20%
6.31
Although the analysis has quantified this on the basis of the market modelling and an understanding
of the current housing market it does not necessarily follow that such prescriptive figures should be
included in the plan making process. The ‘market’ is to some degree a better judge of what is the
most appropriate profile of homes to deliver at any point in time. The figures can however be used
as a monitoring tool to ensure that future delivery is not unbalanced when compared with the likely
requirements as driven by demographic change in the area.
Summary – Need for Different Sizes of Homes
6.32
There are a range of factors which will influence demand for different sizes of homes, including
demographic changes; future growth in real earnings and households’ ability to save; economic
performance and housing affordability. The analysis linked to long-term (20-year) demographic
change concludes that the following represents an appropriate mix of affordable and market homes:
Table 34: Mix of Affordable and Market Homes
Market
Affordable
All dwellings
6.33
1-bed
2-bed
3-bed
4+ bed
5%
35%
15%
30%
35%
30%
45%
25%
40%
20%
5%
15%
The strategic conclusions in the affordable sector recognise the role which delivery of larger family
homes can play in releasing supply of smaller properties for other households; together with the
limited flexibility which one-bed properties offer to changing household circumstances which feed
through into higher turnover and management issues.
6.34
The mix identified above should inform strategic District-wide policies. In applying these to
individual development sites regard should be had to the nature of the development site and
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character of the area, and to up-to-date evidence of need as well as the existing mix and turnover of
properties at the local level.
6.35
Based on the evidence, it is expected that the focus of new market housing provision will be on twoand three-bed properties. Continued demand for family housing can be expected from newly
forming households. There may also be some demand for medium-sized properties (2- and 3-beds)
from older households downsizing and looking to release equity in existing homes, but still retain
flexibility for friends and family to come and stay.
6.36
The analysis of an appropriate mix of dwellings should also inform the ‘portfolio’ of sites which are
considered through the Local Plan process. Equally it will be of relevance to affordable housing
negotiations.
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HOUSING NEEDS OF SPECIFIC GROUPS IN THE POPULATION
Introduction
7.1
We have established the need for different sizes of properties over the next 20-years, however
there can be specific groups within the population who require specialist housing solutions or for
whom housing needs may differ from the wider population. These groups are considered within this
section.
7.2
Estimates of household groups who have particular housing needs is a key output of the SHMA
Guidance whilst the National Planning Policy Framework identifies that local planning authorities
should plan for a mix of housing which takes account of the needs of different groups in the
community.
7.3
The following key groups have been identified which may have housing needs which differ from
those of the wider population:
 Older Persons;
 People with disabilities;
 Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) households;
 Households with children
 Young people
Housing Needs of Older People
7.4
The PPG recognises the need to provide housing for older people as part of achieving a good mix
of housing. A key driver of change in the housing market over the next 20-years or so is expected to
be the growth in the population of older persons.
7.5
Indeed as population projections show, the number of older people is expected to increase
significantly over the next few years. In this section we draw on a range of sources including our
population projections, 2011 Census information and data from POPPI (Projecting Older People
Population Information).
7.6
The context to older persons housing provision can be summarised as below:
 A need to provide housing for older people as part of achieving a good mix of housing, but
recognizing that many older people are able to exercise choice and control over housing options
– e.g. owner occupiers with equity in their homes;
 Falling demand for residential care in some areas, and a rapidly rising average age of people
living in sheltered housing and requiring higher levels of support. Many local authorities have
struggled to contain expenditure on services for older people;
 New models of enhanced and extra care housing have emerged. These aim to meet the needs
of those who require high levels of care and support alongside those who are still generally able
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to care for themselves. These models often allow for changing circumstances in situ rather than
requiring a move; and
 Providing choice, including supporting people to stay in their own homes including through
supporting adaptations to properties and through provision of floating support.
Current Population of Older Persons
7.7
Below we have provided some baseline population data about older persons and compared this
with other areas. The data for has been taken from the published ONS mid-year population
estimates and is provided for age groups from 65 and upwards.
7.8
The data shows, when compared with all of Buckinghamshire, the South East region and England
that the District has a relatively young population – some 16% of people are aged 65 and over
compared with 17%-18% in other areas. Looking at specific age groups beyond 65 the data also
shows a relatively low proportion of people aged 85 and over (at just 2%).
Table 35: Older Person Population (2013)
Age group
Under 65
65-74
75-84
85+
Total
Total 65+
Aylesbury Vale
Population
151,977
16,296
9,113
3,685
181,071
29,094
% of popn
83.9%
9.0%
5.0%
2.0%
100.0%
16.1%
Buckinghamshire
% of popn
82.2%
9.6%
5.8%
2.4%
100.0%
17.8%
South East
England
% of popn
81.7%
9.7%
5.9%
2.6%
100.0%
18.3%
% of popn
82.7%
9.3%
5.7%
2.3%
100.0%
17.3%
Source: ONS mid-year population estimates
Future Changes in the Population of Older Persons
7.9
As well as providing a baseline position for the proportion of older persons in the District we can use
published population projections to provide an indication of how the numbers might change in the
future compared with other areas. The data provided below is based on the 2012-based SNPP
which is the latest source available consistently across areas. Data for Aylesbury Vale is based on
our main demographic projection (using 2012-based SNPP with additional data from ONS mid-year
population estimates).
7.10
The data shows that Aylesbury Vale (in line with other areas) is expected to see a notable increase
in the older person population with the total number of people aged 65 and over expected to
increase by 80% over the 20 years from 2013. This figure is higher than projected for any of the
other areas studied – this however will to a large degree be linked to the higher level of population
growth expected in the District (a 20% increase in population compared with 13%-15% in other
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locations). As with other areas there is expected to be particularly strong growth in the population
aged 85 and over.
Table 36: Projected Change in Population of Older Persons (2013 to 2033)
Age group
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
8.3%
56.0%
85.4%
173.4%
19.8%
80.1%
4.9%
37.7%
56.5%
149.2%
14.5%
58.7%
5.6%
38.0%
55.5%
127.5%
14.9%
56.4%
5.4%
34.5%
50.2%
120.7%
13.3%
51.1%
Under 65
65-74
75-84
85+
Total
Total 65+
Source: ONS 2012-based SNPP and projection modelling
Characteristics of Older Persons Households
7.11
We have used 2011 Census data to explore in more detail the characteristics of older person
households in Aylesbury Vale (based on the population aged 65 and over). The first table below
shows the number of households compared with Buckinghamshire, South East region and England.
The data shows that in 2011 around 19% of households were comprised entirely of people aged 65
and over. This is slightly below the figures for any of the other areas.
Table 37: Older Person Households (Census 2011)
Older person
households
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
7,421
23,652
449,969
2,725,596
5,829
19,299
329,263
1,851,180
69,406
10.7%
200,727
11.8%
3,555,463
12.7%
22,063,368
12.4%
8.4%
9.6%
9.3%
8.4%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
19.1%
21.4%
21.9%
20.7%
Single older person
2 or more older
people
All households
Single older person
2 or more older
people
All households
Total % older
person only
Source: 2011 Census
7.12
Figure 57 shows the tenure of older person households – the data has been split between single
older person households and those with two or more older people (which will largely be couples).
The data shows that older person households are relatively likely to live in outright owned
accommodation (71%) and are more likely than other households to be in the social rented sector.
The proportion of older person households living in the private rented sector is relatively low (4%
compared with 13% of all households in the District).
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7.13
There are however notable differences for different types of older person households with single
older person households having a lower level of owner-occupation than larger older person
households – this group also has a much higher proportion living in the social rented sector.
7.14
Given that the number of older people is expected to increase in the future and that the number of
single person households is expected to increase this would suggest (if occupancy patterns remain
the same) that there will be a notable demand for affordable housing from the ageing population.
That said, the proportion of older person households who are outright owners (with significant
equity) may mean that market solutions will also be required to meet their needs. This is considered
later in this section.
Tenure of Older Person Households – Aylesbury Vale
100%
90%
% of households in group
80%
70%
60%
3.4%
4.5%
23.0%
1.1%
2.6%
8.7%
7.1%
2.4%
3.7%
16.7%
6.2%
1.3%
13.3%
12.1%
12.9%
5.6%
50%
80.5%
40%
30%
1.0%
15.6%
63.5%
41.3%
49.6%
71.0%
20%
31.1%
21.7%
10%
0%
Single pensioner
Owner-occupied (no mortgage)
2 or more
pensioners
All pensioner only All other households
Owner-occupied (with mortgage)
Social rented
All households
Private rented
Other
Source: 2011 Census
7.15
A key theme that is often brought out in Housing Market Assessment work is the large proportion of
older person households who under-occupy their dwellings. Data from the Census allows us to
investigate this using the bedroom standard. The Census data does indeed suggest that older
person households are more likely to under-occupy their housing than other households in the
District. In total 61% have an occupancy rating of +2 or more (meaning there are at least two more
bedrooms than are technically required by the household). This compares with 37% for non-older
person households. Further analysis suggests that under-occupancy is far more common in
households with two or more older people than single older person households.
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Occupancy Rating of Older Person Households – Aylesbury Vale
100%
0.0%
90%
20.8%
% of households in group
80%
0.0%
3.9%
0.0%
13.5%
20.1%
4.5%
3.6%
24.9%
22.8%
25.8%
70%
30.1%
60%
32.3%
33.9%
50%
40%
76.0%
30%
60.7%
49.0%
20%
41.2%
36.7%
10%
0%
Single pensioner
2 or more
pensioners
+2 or more
All pensioner only All other households
+1
0
All households
-1 or less
Source: 2011 Census
7.16
It is of interest to study the above information by tenure. Table 38 below shows the number of older
person households who had an occupancy rating of +2 or more in each of three broad tenure
groups in 2011. Whilst the majority of older person households with an occupancy rating of +2 or
more were in the owner-occupied sector, there were over 400 properties in the social rented sector
occupied by older person only households with an occupancy rating of +2 or more. This may
therefore present some opportunity to reduce under-occupation although to achieve this it may be
necessary to provide housing in areas where households currently live and where they have social
and community ties.
Table 38: Older person households with occupancy rating of +2 or more by tenure
Tenure
Owner-occupied
Social rented
Private rented
All tenures
Single older person
2 or more older
people
All older person only
households
3,184
260
196
3,640
4,026
155
98
4,279
7,210
415
294
7,919
Source: 2011 Census
7.17
It should however be recognised that many older households in the private sector will have built up
equity in their existing homes. In the private sector many older households may be able to afford a
larger home than they need (and thus under-occupy housing). Some may look to downsize to
release equity from homes to support their retirement (or may move away from the area); however
we would expect many older households to want to retain family housing with space to allow friends
and relatives to come to stay. Data about household ages and the sizes of homes occupied in the
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previous section does indicate that some households do typically downsize, however, a cautious
view should be taken about the willingness of households to move to smaller homes and the extent
to which this can be influenced through policy.
Health-related Population Projections
7.18
In addition to providing projections about how the number and proportion of older people is
expected to change in the future we can look at the likely impact on the number of people with
specific illnesses or disabilities. For this we have used data from the Projecting Older People
Information System (POPPI) website which provides prevalence rates for different disabilities by
age and sex. For the purposes of the SHMA analysis has focused on estimates of the number of
people with dementia and mobility problems.
7.19
For both of the health issues analysed the figures relate to the population aged 65 and over. The
figures from POPPI are based on prevalence rates from a range of different sources and whilst
these might change in the future (e.g. as general health of the older person population improves)
the estimates are likely to be of the right order.
7.20
Table 39 below shows that both of the illnesses/disabilities are expected to increase significantly in
the future although this would be expected given the increasing population. In particular there is
projected to be a large rise in the number of people with dementia (up 123%) along with a 103%
increase in the number with mobility problems.
Table 39: Estimated population change for range of health issues (2013 to 2033)
2013
Type of illness/disability
Dementia
1,950
Mobility problems
5,176
Source: Data from POPPI and demographic projections
2033
Change
% increase
4,351
10,522
2,401
5,346
123.2%
103.3%
Indicative Requirements for Specialist Housing for Older People
7.21
Given the ageing population and higher levels of disability and health problems amongst older
people there is likely to be an increased requirement for specialist housing options moving forward.
The analysis in this section draws on data from the Housing Learning and Information Network
(Housing LIN) along with our demographic projections to provide an indication of the potential level
of additional specialist housing that might be required for older people in the future.
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Current stock of housing
7.22
Table 40 shows the current supply of specialist housing for older people. At present it is estimated
that there are 1,092 units; this is equivalent to 85 units per 1,000 people aged 75 and over. Around
three-quarters of the housing is in the affordable sector and a quarter is market housing. This
finding is significant given that the majority of older person households are owner-occupiers.
Table 40: Current supply of specialist housing for older people
Sheltered
Extra-Care
Total
Source: Housing LIN
Affordable
Market
Total
684
142
826
266
0
266
950
142
1,092
Supply per
1,000 aged 75+
74
11
85
Projected Future Need for Specialist Housing for Older Persons
7.23
The analysis above showed a total of 85 specialist units per 1,000 people aged 75 and over; this
figure is significantly lower than the national average of about 170. In projecting forward how many
additional units might be required we have modelled on the basis of maintaining the 85 position and
also the implications of increasing this to 170. The analysis is based on achieving these levels by
2033.
7.24
The analysis shows to maintain the current level of provision there would need to be a further 1,201
units provided – this figure increases to 3,494 if the level of provision were to get to the national
average. It should be stressed that the analysis below is based on modelling data on a series of
assumptions and should therefore be treated as indicative (particularly given the very wide range of
outputs depending on the assumptions used).
Table 41: Projected need for specialist housing for older people (2013-33)
@ 85 per 1,000
Need
2,293
Supply
1,092
Net need
1,201
Source: Derived from demographic projections and Housing LIN
7.25
@ 170 per 1,000
4,586
1,092
3,494
A mid-point of the two estimates would suggest a need for around 2,347 additional specialist units
for older people. A figure of 2,347 represents about 117 dwellings per annum. Whilst there is no
precedent for taking a midpoint of these figures we would consider that it is a reasonable and
balanced approach. Continuing to model on the basis of the current stock may under-estimate
needs given the low current stock; however moving to the national average may overstate the
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position (particularly if for example the current low level of provision is in part driven by a lower
need/demand in the area).
7.26
This identified need for 117 dwellings per annum of specialist accommodation for older people is of
accommodation which would fall within a C3 use class, and could be counted towards housing
numbers. Households in such dwellings fall within the ‘household population.’
Types and Tenures of Specialist Housing for Older Persons
7.27
Data earlier in this section has shown that older person households are relatively likely to live in
outright owned accommodation. The information about current tenures can be used to estimate the
amount of additional housing likely to be required in each of the market and affordable sectors.
Looking at the data it is considered that around 65% of older person households would be able to
afford a market solution – this figure is arbitrary but based on current levels of outright ownership
and recognising stronger growth in single person households in the future (such households having
lower levels of home ownership).
7.28
Table 41 shows that using this proportion of home ownership along with the current supply of
different tenures of specialist housing it would be expected that there is a need for around 1,970
units of market specialist housing and 378 in the affordable sector.
7.29
The analysis is not specific about the types of specialist housing that might be required; we would
consider that decisions about mix should be taken at a local level taking account of specific needs
and the current supply of different types of units available. There may also be the opportunity
moving forward for different types of provision to be developed as well as the more traditional
sheltered and Extra-Care housing.
7.30
Within the different models and assumptions made regarding the future need for specialist
retirement housing (normally defined as a form of congregate housing designed exclusively for
older people which usually offers some form of communal space, community alarm service and
access to support and care if required), there may for example be an option to substitute some of
this specialist provision with a mix of one and two bedroomed housing aimed to attract ‘early retired’
older people which could be designated as age specific or not. Such housing could be part of the
general mix of one and two bedroom homes but built to Lifetime Homes standards in order to attract
retired older people looking to ‘down size’ but perhaps not wanting to live in specialist retirement
housing.
7.31
Our experience when carrying out stakeholder work as part of other SHMA commissions typically
identifies a demand for bungalows. Where developments including bungalows are found it is clear
that these are very popular to older people downsizing. It should be acknowledged that providing
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significant numbers of bungalows involves cost implications for the developer given the typical plot
size compared to floor space – however providing an element of bungalows should be given strong
consideration on appropriate sites, allowing older households to downsize while freeing up family
accommodation for younger households.
Table 42: Projected need for older persons accommodation (including specialist housing) –
by broad tenure (2013-33)
Need
Supply
Net need
Market
Affordable
Total
2,236
266
1,970
1,204
826
378
3,439
1,092
2,347
Source: Derived from demographic projections
Registered Care Housing
7.32
As well as the need for specialist housing for older people the analysis needs to consider
Registered Care. At present (according to Housing LIN) there are around 1,363 spaces in nursing
and residential care homes. Given new models of provision (including Extra-care housing) it may be
the case that an increase in this number would not be required. There will however need to be a
recognition that there may be some additional need for particular groups such as those requiring
specialist nursing or for people with dementia.
7.33
The demographic modelling includes estimates of the number of people expected to be living in
‘institutions’. Between 2013 and 2033, this number (based on the population aged 75+) is expected
to increase by 1,167 people (58 per annum) to total 2,111 by 2033. This suggests that at present
there may be a small surplus of Registered Care accommodation with a possible shortfall in the
longer-term. It assumes that the same proportion of older persons aged 75+ will require care and
nursing provision as now. The need may however be lower because of other forms of support such
as telecare and extra care housing.
7.34
Buckinghamshire County Council’s Market Position Statement – Specialist Housing for Vulnerable
Adults (CC, March 2015) identifies that 13% of older persons will require care, and on this basis
suggests a slightly lower need for 20 nursing home places and 15 residential care places per
annum over the 2013-33 period.
7.35
These figures are important to note if the Council intend to include C2 class uses in their
assessment of 5-year housing land supply as it will be necessary to include figures on both the
need and supply side of the equation. The analysis would suggest a potential need for 748
bedspaces in Residential Care in the 2013-33 period (2,111-1,363) – this is about 37 per annum.
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People with Disabilities
7.36
This section concentrates on the housing situation of people/households that contain someone with
some form of disability. We have again drawn on Census data although it should be recognised that
an analysis of people with disabilities is very strongly linked with the above analysis about older
people.
7.37
Table 43 shows the proportion of people with a long-term health problem or disability (LTHPD) and
the proportion of households where at least one person has a LTHPD. The data suggests that
across Aylesbury Vale some 21% of households contain someone with a LTHPD. This figure is the
same as the equivalent figure for Buckinghamshire and below averages for the South East region
and England. The figures for the population with a LTHPD again show a lower proportion when
compared with the regional and national position (an estimated 14% of the population of Aylesbury
Vale have a LTHPD).
Table 43: Households and people with Long-Term Health Problem or Disability (2011)
Area
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
Households containing
someone with health problem
Number
14,720
42,452
839,086
5,659,606
%
21.2%
21.1%
23.6%
25.7%
Population with health problem
Number
23,654
67,928
1,356,204
9,352,586
%
13.6%
13.4%
15.7%
17.6%
Source: 2011 Census
7.38
The lower levels of people/households with a LTHPD in Aylesbury Vale is likely to some degree to
be related to the age structure in the District (which is generally younger than other locations).
Figure 59 shows the age bands of people with a LTHPD. It is clear from this analysis that those
people in the oldest age bands are more likely to have a LTHPD – for example some 83% of people
aged 85 and over have a LTHPD. It should be noted that the base for the figure below is slightly
different to the above table in that it excludes people living in communal establishments.
7.39
When compared with other areas it is notable for all age groups that levels of LTHPD are relatively
low in comparison with England, relatively high in comparison with Buckinghamshire and generally
quite similar to regional data. This does provide some support for the relatively low levels of LTHPD
in the District being related to the age structure – figures for particular age bands are not (when
taken as a whole) significantly different to those in other areas.
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Population with LTHPD in each Age Band
3.2%
3.0%
3.5%
3.7%
4.8%
4.3%
5.1%
5.2%
4.9%
4.7%
5.6%
6.3%
7.5%
7.1%
9.4%
11.7%
15.8%
14.6%
18.0%
23.1%
Age 0 to 15
Age 16 to 24
Age 25 to 34
Age 35 to 49
Age 50 to 64
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
30.2%
27.8%
31.8%
Age 65 to 74
38.7%
55.0%
52.5%
55.3%
60.9%
Age 75 to 84
82.9%
81.0%
80.6%
83.0%
Age 85 and over
13.1%
13.0%
15.1%
17.2%
All ages
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
LTHPD
Source: 2011 Census
7.40
The age specific prevalence rates shown above can be applied to the demographic data to estimate
the likely increase over time of the number of people with a LTHPD. In applying this information to
our projection linked to the 2012-based SNPP it is estimated that the number of people with a
LTHPD will increase by around 13,430 (a 54% increase) from 2013 to 2033. The vast majority of
this increase (92%) is expected to be in age groups aged 65 and over. The population increase of
people with a LTHPD represents 37% of the total increase in the population projected by the
demographic modelling.
7.41
Figure 61 shows the tenures of people with a LTHPD – it should be noted that the data is for
population living in households rather than households and is therefore not comparable with other
tenure analysis provided in this section. The analysis clearly shows that people with a LTHPD are
more likely to live in social rented housing and are also more likely to be outright owners (this will be
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linked to the age profile of the population with a disability). Given that typically the lowest incomes
are found in the social rented sector and to a lesser extent for outright owners the analysis may
suggest that the population/households with a disability are likely to be relatively disadvantaged
when compared to the rest of the population.
Tenure of people with LTHPD – Aylesbury Vale
100%
90%
% of households in group
80%
9.5%
14.5%
13.8%
22.7%
10.6%
12.2%
52.1%
48.3%
22.9%
25.7%
People without LTHPD
All people in households
70%
60%
23.4%
50%
40%
30%
44.4%
20%
10%
0%
People with LTHPD
Owner-occupied (no mortgage)
Owner-occupied (with mortgage)
Social rented
Private rented & other
Source: 2011 Census
7.42
Buckinghamshire County Council’s Market Position Statement – Specialist Housing for Vulnerable
Adults (BCC, March 2015) identifies needs from those with mental health problems, and physical
and sensory disabilities. It identifies that there was no immediate demand for more specialist
housing for those with mental health issues, but that moving forwards a need for provision of 8
additional units every 5-6 years would arise across the County.
7.43
In respect of those with physical and sensory disabilities, the Market Position Statement
recommends that an adapted housing register be developed. It identifies a need for provision of 6
units of specialist provision for this group across Buckinghamshire every 5-6 years.
BME Households
7.44
Black or Minority Ethnic (BME) households, as a group, are quite often found to have distinct
characteristics in terms of their housing needs, or may be disadvantaged in some way.
7.45
From 2011 Census data we find that around 14% of the population of Aylesbury Vale came from a
non-White (British/Irish) background. This figure is notably below that found nationally (figure for
England of 19%) and also below the Buckinghamshire average (of 18%). It is however in-line with
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that seen across the whole South East (also 14%). The key BME group in Aylesbury Vale is Other:
White, which makes up 3.5% of all people in the District; the Pakistani group is also significant (at
3.1% of all people).
Table 44: Black and Minority Ethnic Population (2011)
Ethnic Group
Aylesbury
Vale
Buckinghamshire
South East
England
White: British
White: Irish
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller
White: Other White
Mixed: White and Black
Caribbean
Mixed: White and Black
African
Mixed: White and Asian
Mixed: Other Mixed
Asian: Indian
Asian: Pakistani
Asian: Bangladeshi
Asian: Chinese
Asian: Other Asian
Black: African
Black: Caribbean
Black: Other Black
Other ethnic group: Arab
Any other ethnic group
Total
Total population
% non-White (British/Irish)
85.2%
0.9%
0.1%
3.5%
0.9%
81.1%
1.1%
0.1%
4.1%
0.9%
85.2%
0.9%
0.2%
4.4%
0.5%
79.8%
1.0%
0.1%
4.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
1.1%
3.1%
0.1%
0.4%
1.1%
1.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
100.0%
174,137
13.9%
0.8%
0.5%
2.2%
4.2%
0.2%
0.5%
1.4%
0.8%
1.0%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
100.0%
505,283
17.8%
0.7%
0.5%
1.8%
1.1%
0.3%
0.6%
1.4%
1.0%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
100.0%
8,634,750
13.9%
0.6%
0.5%
2.6%
2.1%
0.8%
0.7%
1.5%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
0.4%
0.6%
100.0%
53,012,456
19.3%
Source: 2011 Census
7.46
Since 2001 the BME population in the District can be seen to have increased significantly as shown
in the table below. We have condensed some categories together due to a slightly different list of
potential groups being used in the 2011 Census when compared with 2001 data. The data shows
that whilst the overall population of Aylesbury Vale has increased by 8,400 over the 10-year period
there has been a notable increase in BME groups (all groups other than White (British/Irish)) of
10,300. The White (British/Irish) population has decreased by 1.3% compared to an increase of
74% in BME groups (all combined).
7.47
Looking at particular BME groups we see that the largest rise has been for the Asian or Asian
British population – increasing by 4,400 over the ten years; this is a 78% increase. Both the Mixed
and Black or Black British populations have increased by higher proportions (increasing by 94%
and 92% respectively).
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Table 45: Change in BME groups 2001 to 2011 – Aylesbury Vale
Ethnic Group
White (British/Irish)
White - Other
Mixed
Asian or Asian British
Black or Black British
Other
Total
All non-White
(British/Irish)
2001
2011
Change
% change
151,858
4,029
1,993
5,666
1,728
474
165,748
13,890
149,933
6,146
3,864
10,105
3,323
766
174,137
24,204
-1,925
2,117
1,871
4,439
1,595
292
8,389
10,314
-1.3%
52.5%
93.9%
78.3%
92.3%
61.6%
5.1%
74.3%
Source: Census 2001 and 2011
BME Household Characteristics
7.48
Census data can also be used to provide some broad information about the household and housing
characteristics of the BME population in the District. The figure below looks at the population age
structure of six broad age groups using data from the 2011 Census.
7.49
The age profile of the BME population is striking when compared with White: British/Irish people. All
BME groups are considerably younger than the White (British/Irish) group with people from a Mixed
background being particularly likely to be aged under 15 when compared with any other group. The
proportions of older persons are also notable with 23% of White; British/Irish people being aged 60
or over compared with all BME groups showing proportions of no more than 14%.
Population Age Profile by Ethnic Group – Aylesbury Vale (2011)
White: British/Irish
17.8%
White: Other
15.7%
14.4%
20.4%
21.9%
Mixed
22.8%
33.6%
51.1%
Asian
25.0%
18.6%
Other
24.8%
19.0%
0%
10%
Under 15
29.0%
17.0%
20%
30%
15-29
21.3%
40%
30-44
12.7%
50%
45-59
12.9% 4.6%
1.6%
60-74
5.8%2.4%
17.2%
21.5%
60%
6.6%2.3%
1.0%
18.7%
24.3%
70%
7.5%
9.0% 4.9%
27.6%
25.4%
21.5%
All groups
16.1%
26.3%
28.3%
Black
15.7%
10.3%1.8%
14.3%
80%
90%
6.8%
100%
75 and over
Source: 2011 Census
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7.50
There are notable differences between the household characteristics of BME households compared
with the White: British population. The figure below indicates that all BME groups are significantly
less likely to be owner-occupiers (particularly outright owners) and all groups are far more likely to
live in private rented accommodation. Arguably the starkest trend is the 35% of White (Other) and
29% of Black households living in the private rented sector.
Tenure by ethnic group – Aylesbury Vale
% of households in group
100%
3.9%
90%
2.9%
10.1%
80%
12.7%
35.0%
3.8%
20.8%
16.5%
50%
7.8%
41.7%
40%
20%
10%
26.1%
23.0%
0%
White
(British/Irish)
White (Other)
Owner-occupied (no mortgage)
11.3%
Mixed
18.4%
22.8%
39.0%
32.6%
2.9%
16.4%
37.3%
46.6%
30.3%
30%
29.0%
14.1%
70%
60%
2.3%
2.9%
35.3%
18.9%
Asian
Owner-occupied (with mortgage)
25.0%
10.4%
Black
Social rented
Other
Private rented
Other
Source: 2011 Census
7.51
The strong representation of BME households in the Private Rented Sector means that they are
more likely to be affected by the changes discussed to Local Housing Allowance (particularly as the
sector in the District shows a strong representation of LHA Claimants).
7.52
As BME communities mature over time, the level of owner occupation may increase. The pace at
which this happens may be influenced by economic opportunities available as well as the level of
enterprise within the local community. For some communities there may be support mechanisms
which can work within the community, such as availability of interest free loans or support raising a
deposit to buy a home, depending on cultural factors.
7.53
Figure 64 shows ‘occupancy ratings’ by BME group; this is based on the bedroom standard where a
positive figure indicates under-occupancy and negative figures suggest some degree of overcrowding. BME groups are more likely to be overcrowded (i.e. have a negative occupancy rating)
than White (British) households. In particular, the Census data suggests that around 18% of Asian
households are overcrowded along with 11% of the Black group – this compares with only 3% of
the White (British) group. Levels of under-occupancy amongst BME communities are generally low.
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Occupancy rating by ethnic group – Aylesbury Vale
100%
90%
2.7%
% of households in group
7.7%
70%
31.3%
36.1%
40.6%
34.4%
32.8%
50%
29.7%
40%
31.8%
43.2%
30.9%
10%
8.2%
36.9%
31.6%
26.4%
29.4%
24.4%
21.2%
19.1%
23.4%
Mixed
Asian
Black
Other
30%
20%
10.8%
17.9%
21.4%
80%
60%
8.1%
0%
White
(British/Irish)
White (Other)
+2 or more
1
0
-1 or less
Source: 2011 Census
Households with children (family households)
7.54
The number of families in Aylesbury Vale (defined for the purpose of this assessment as any
household which contains at least one dependent child) totalled 22,400 in 2011, accounting for 32%
of households – a similar figure to that seen across Buckinghamshire but higher than the regional
and national average. The demographic projection (linked to the 2012-based SNPP) suggests that
the number of children (aged Under 15) is expected to increase by 13% from 2013 to 2033 (an
increase of around 4,400).
Table 46: Households with dependent children (2011)
Household Type
Married couple
Cohabiting couple
Lone parent
Other households
All other households (no dependent
children)
Total
Total with dependent children
Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire
South
East
England
Number
14,099
2,732
3,955
1,568
47,052
%
20.3%
3.9%
5.7%
2.3%
67.8%
%
20.5%
3.5%
5.3%
2.5%
68.3%
%
17.1%
3.9%
6.1%
2.3%
70.6%
%
15.3%
4.0%
7.1%
2.6%
70.9%
69,406
22,354
100.0%
32.2%
100.0%
31.7%
100.0%
29.4%
100.0%
29.1%
Source: 2011 Census
7.55
Figure 65 shows the current tenure of households with dependent children. There are some
considerable differences by household type with lone parents having a very high proportion living in
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the social rented sector and also in private rented accommodation. Only around 40% of lone parent
households are owner-occupiers compared with 82% of married couples with children.
Tenure of households with dependent children – Aylesbury Vale
100%
90%
% of households in group
80%
0.6%
10.1%
0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
7.1%
23.5%
23.3%
19.4%
35.7%
71.4%
12.9%
14.1%
10.7%
Married
couple
32.3%
31.9%
20%
0%
12.4%
41.3%
48.5%
51.6%
30%
10%
0.7%
14.8%
19.4%
60%
40%
1.3%
13.3%
13.3%
70%
50%
1.6%
12.6%
4.8%
8.3%
Cohabiting
couple
Lone parent
Owner-occupied (no mortgage)
60.4%
41.1%
17.8%
Other
households
Owner-occupied (with mortgage)
31.1%
10.1%
All other All householdsAll households
households
with
(no dependent
dependent
children)
children
Social rented
Private rented
Other
Source: 2011 Census
7.56
Overcrowding is often a key theme when looking at the housing needs of households with children
and the figure below shows that households with children are about five times more likely than other
households to be overcrowded. In total, some 8% of all households with dependent children are
overcrowded and included within this the data shows 11% of lone parent households are
overcrowded along with 32% of ‘other’ households with dependent children. Other than for married
couple households levels of under-occupancy are also very low.
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Occupancy rating and households with dependent children
100%
4.2%
90%
% of households in group
80%
7.7%
18.3%
31.8%
24.8%
3.6%
32.4%
30.4%
50.5%
60%
32.3%
40.4%
37.8%
36.5%
40%
35.2%
30%
20%
10%
7.8%
22.8%
41.9%
70%
50%
1.7%
10.9%
29.8%
30.6%
15.2%
0%
Married
couple
Cohabiting
couple
49.7%
20.1%
41.2%
23.4%
8.8%
10.3%
Lone parent
Other
households
+2 or more
1
0
All other All householdsAll households
households
with
(no dependent
dependent
children)
children
-1 or less
Source: 2011 Census
Young People
7.57
As well as considering households with children the analysis considers the housing and socioeconomic situation of young people (generally considered in this analysis to be those aged 16-34).
Given ageing populations, the ability to retain young people in an area can assist in providing a
more balanced demographic profile as well as providing a vital part of the local workforce. Young
people may however find barriers to accessing housing given typically low incomes and potential
difficulties in securing mortgage finance due to deposit requirements. Additionally, LHA payments
may limit choice for under-35s requiring private rented homes.
7.58
The demographic projections (linked to the 2012-based SNPP and 2012-based CLG household
projections) suggest that in 2013 there were around 9,800 households headed by someone aged
under 35 and that this is expected to remain largely unchanged over the period to 2033 (dropping
slightly to 9,600).
7.59
As well as households headed by a younger person there will be others living as part of another
household (typically with parents). The table below shows the number of households in the District
with non-dependent children. In total, some 9% of households (6,500) contain non-dependent
children. This may to some degree highlight the difficulties faced by young people in accessing
housing. Young people may be less likely to be eligible for social housing, have lower household
incomes and have difficulty in accessing the owner-occupied sector due to mortgage constraints
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and deposit requirements. All of these factors contribute to the current trend for young people
moving in with or continuing to live with parents.
Table 47: Households with non-dependent children (2011)
Buckinghamshire
Aylesbury Vale
Household Type
Number
3,986
336
2,140
62,944
69,406
6,462
Married couple
Cohabiting couple
Lone parent
All other households
Total
Total with non-dependent
children
%
5.7%
0.5%
3.1%
90.7%
100.0%
9.3%
%
6.1%
0.4%
3.0%
90.5%
100.0%
9.5%
South East
England
%
5.6%
0.5%
3.5%
90.4%
100.0%
9.6%
%
5.5%
0.5%
3.1%
90.9%
100.0%
9.1%
Source: 2011 Census
7.60
When considering households that are currently headed by a younger person we can use 2011
Census data to look at some key characteristics. The figure below shows the tenure groups of
these households (compared with other age groups). The data clearly shows that very few younger
households are owner-occupiers with a particular reliance on the private rented sector and to a
lesser degree social rented housing.
Tenure by age of HRP – Aylesbury Vale
100%
% of households in group
90%
8.5%
80%
70%
5.1%
30.4%
2.9%
13.3%
1.8%
7.0%
10.4%
11.3%
42.6%
60%
1.8%
3.6%
13.3%
16.1%
10.9%
5.8%
2.7%
2.5%
2.9%
11.7%
24.0%
12.9%
4.8%
44.4%
15.1%
6.3%
3.0%
41.3%
50%
40%
30%
63.3%
70.4%
29.3%
72.9%
45.2%
20%
10%
15.3%
0%
4.4%
36.4%
4.2%
61.9%
31.1%
9.2%
Age 24 and Age 25 to Age 35 to Age 50 to Age 65 to Age 75 to Age 85 and
All
under
34
49
64
74
84
over households
Owner-occupied (no mortgage)
Owner-occupied (with mortgage)
Social rented
Private rented
Other
Source: 2011 Census
7.61
Census data can also be used to look at economic activity rates; including employment and
unemployment levels. Data about this is shown in the figure below. The data shows that younger
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people are more likely to be unemployed than other age groups. The data shows that of the
population aged 16-24 some 9.4% are unemployed, along with 4.1% of those aged 25-34.
Economic activity by age – Aylesbury Vale
100%
90%
% of population in group
80%
6.4%
26.1%
10.7%
4.1%
8.8%
0.2%
14.2%
2.5%
10.0%
2.9%
70%
60%
3.3%
83.2%
83.4%
40%
86.5%
74.2%
65.9%
58.1%
20%
0.2%
13.8%
10%
0%
8.0%
3.7%
19.2%
9.4%
50%
30%
2.7%
Age 16 to 24
Age 25 to 34
Working
Age 35 to 49
Unemployed
Age 50 to 64
Retired
Student
Age 65 and over
All aged 16 and
over
Other
Source: 2011 Census
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Implications






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A key challenge will be meeting the needs of ageing population with the number of people
aged 65 and above expected to increase by 23,300 (80%) from 2013 to 2033. Improving
life expectancy and a growing number of older persons are likely to drive a need for
specialist housing provision in the market and affordable sectors. We estimate a need for
117 specialist housing units for older persons per year (within a C3 use class). An
estimated 84% of this need is for market housing, and 16% for affordable housing
provision.
Our analysis in addition identifies a need for registered care provision (which falls within a
C2 use class). The evidence indicates a need for 35-58 nursing and care home bedspaces
per annum in the District.
A growing older person population is expected to drive an increase in the number of people
with disabilities. Demographic projections suggest a 173% increase in the population aged
over 85 from 2013 to 2033 with Census data suggesting that over 80% of this age group
have some level of disability. The County Council’s research indicates a need for 6 units of
specialist housing across Buckinghamshire every 5-6 years for people with physical and
sensory disabilities. The Council should consider developing a register of suitable
properties. In addition Buckinghamshire County Council identify a need for 8 homes for
those with mental health issues county-wide every 5-6 years.
The District has a relatively small Black and Ethnic Minority (BME) population, but one
which has grown significantly since 2001. Characteristics of BME groups (including tenure
profiles and occupancy patterns) suggest that such households may be disadvantaged in
the housing market. Where possible the Council should provide advice to BME groups and
in particular ensure that accommodation quality (particularly in the private rented sector)
can meet the needs of such households which are disproportionately likely to contain
children.
The analysis suggests that lone parent households are particularly disadvantaged in the
housing market with a high reliance on rented housing. Projections suggest an increase in
the number of children in the District over the next few years and if past trends are
repeated there will be a notable increase in the number of lone parents. Advice about
housing options and maintaining a good quality of accommodation will be critical to ensure
that such households’ needs are best met.
Young people (aged under 35) are important for any area due to the long-term economic
potential they can bring. As with other groups there are some indications of this group
being disadvantaged with a reliance on rented accommodation and high levels of
unemployment. Given that the housing options for young people may be more limited than
for other groups it will be important to monitor the accommodation quality – this will need to
focus on HMOs given general trends of an increase in house sharing over time.
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HOUSING IN AYLESBURY TOWN CENTRE
8.1
This section considers the need for housing in Aylesbury Town Centre. The brief for this element of
the work is as follows:
“An important tasks will be to assess the current housing stock in Aylesbury Town Centre (as
the main County town), this should include looking at the demographic profiling of the town
centre and compare this to what is in the pipeline for development and to provide information
on whether there is over or under provision for particular types of housing. This will help
guide policy development for future allocations within Aylesbury Town Centre.”
8.2
In this section we profile the demographics of those living in Aylesbury Town Centre and
immediately adjacent areas, and the current housing offer. Taking account of the regeneration
proposals for the Town Centre, including housing scheme in the development pipeline and the
Council's Town Centre Plan, we consider the potential for housing development.
Geography & Retail Performance
8.3
Aylesbury Town Centre sits at the centre of the urban area. The 'town centre' as currently defined in
policy comprises the area bounded by the A41 to the south and east; Oxford Road to the west and
the A418 New Road to the north. It is the county town of Buckinghamshire, a sub-regional centre
and by far the largest settlement within the Vale.
8.4
The Town Centre's prime retail pitch includes two shopping centres - Friars Square and Hale Leys together with the High Street and Market Square. There are two department stores - BHS and
House of Fraser, a range of supermarkets (including Morrisons, Sainsburys and Waitrose as well as
discount retailers).
8.5
The centre also provides for the evening economy, with three bars/ wine bars, nine public houses,
15 cafés, two clubs, 11 restaurants and 16 fast food takeaways. Provision is particularly focused
around Kingsbury Square. The leisure offer is an influence on the residential attractiveness.
8.6
A further important potential residential driver is the rail station, which sits on the south western side
of the Centre. This provides rail services to High Wycombe, and London Marylebone via Amersham.
The Town's bus station is located nearby, off Friarage Road, providing services around the town
and to other nearby centres. Public transport accessibility from the Town Centre Is thus relatively
strong.
8.7
Environmental quality in the centre areas is fair to good; but is varied and less strong for instance in
parts of Kingsbury, Cambridge Street and Buckingham Street. Environment and public realm are
influences on the centre's residential attractiveness. The Retail Study identifies the potential to
create a stronger cluster of leisure services / food and beverage outlets around Kingsbury Square.
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8.8
Work undertaken as part of the latest 2015 Retail Study (prepared by GL Hearn) indicates that
Aylesbury Town Centre trades well, with reasonable levels of vitality and viability. Whilst there is a
good range of shops and services, these are targeted more towards the value/ budget end and midrange of the market.
Socio-Economic Profile
8.9
We have developed a socio-economic profile of the Town Centre using a best fit of Output Areas to
the boundary used in the Council's Town Centre Plan (Figure 69). This is wider than the boundary
used for retail planning purposes, but this is considered appropriate in the context of considering
the town centre housing market.
Wider Town Centre Boundary used for Analytical Purposes
Source: Aylesbury Town Centre Plan
8.10
The 2011 Census recorded a population in this area of 3,500 persons. As we would expect, the
Town Centre has a younger population structure than other parts of the District - with 48% of the
population aged between 20-44. Those in this age band are over-represented relative to wider
geographies.
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Population Structure - Aylesbury Town Centre, 2011
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
Town Centre
15.0%
Aylesbury Vale
South East
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0 to 14
20 to 29
30 to 44
45 to 49
60 to 64
65+
Source: 2011 Census
8.11
A significant 81% of residents in the Town Centre area are economically active. Almost three
quarters (74%) are employed or self-employed, with 3% full-time students and 4% unemployed.
Unemployment is 1 percentage point above the District average.
8.12
The proportion of residents in employment is notably above average, as we would expect given the
younger age profile of the population relative to other parts of the District.
Economic Activity - Aylesbury Town Centre, 2011
South East
Aylesbury Vale
Town Centre
0%
Employed
20%
Self-Employed
40%
Unemployed
60%
80%
Full-Time Student
100%
Inactive
Source: 2011 Census
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8.13
The occupational structure sees an above average representation of the following occupational
groups relative to the wider District:
 Professional;
 Associate Professional;
 Caring, Leisure and Other Service; and
 Elementary.
8.14
This suggests a profile which is focused towards office workers on the one hand, and those working
in retail/ service jobs on the other. It is notable that the largest occupational groups and professional
and associate professional which together account for more than a third of residents in employment
(33.9%).
Occupational Profile of Residents - Aylesbury Town Centre, 2011
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
Town Centre
0.0%
Aylesbury Vale
South East
Source: 2011 Census
8.15
The ethic profile of the Town Centre area's population is shown in Table 48. The Town Centre area
is ethnically more diverse that the wider District, or indeed the South East region. 41% of the area's
population falls within a Black or Minority Ethnic Group. There is a particularly notable Asian/ Asian
British population, and White Other population (which is likely to include Eastern European
migrants).
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Table 48: Ethnic Profile - Aylesbury Town Centre, 2011
Town Centre
Aylesbury Vale
South East
58.9%
0.9%
7.5%
3.9%
13.1%
2.9%
6.5%
1.2%
4.4%
0.7%
80.7%
1.0%
3.5%
2.2%
5.8%
1.1%
3.1%
0.4%
1.9%
0.4%
81.7%
1.0%
4.4%
1.9%
5.2%
1.8%
1.1%
0.6%
1.6%
0.6%
White British
White Irish / Traveller
White Other
Mixed Ethnic
Asian/ Asian British
Indian
Pakistani
Chinese
Black
Other Ethnic Group
Source: 2011 Census
8.16
There are a mix of household types resident within the Town Centre area. The most prevalent are:
 Single households (34.6%);
 Family households with Children (26.9%);
 Couples without Children (26.9%).
8.17
Other households, which is likely to include shared housing, whilst representing a small proportion
of overall households, is above wider benchmarks in comparative terms. Single person households
are more prevalent relative to wider areas.
Table 49: Household Composition - Aylesbury Town Centre, 2011
Single Person
Households with Children
Family without Children
Family with Non-Dependent Children
Other Households
Town Centre
Aylesbury Vale
South East
34.6%
26.9%
26.6%
5.6%
9.0%
25.4%
32.2%
34.3%
8.5%
4.2%
28.8%
29.4%
31.5%
8.3%
5.1%
Source: 2011 Census
8.18
We have used Experian's MOSAIC classification to provide a composite profile of population
characteristics. This indicates a concentration within the following MOSAIC groups:
 Rental Hubs (49.5%);
 Aspiring Homemakers (11.7%);
 Transient Renters (10.2%)
 Urban Cohesion (9.9%).
8.19
Besides Aspiring Homemakers, each of these groups is over-represented relative to the wider
District profile.
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Table 50: MOSAIC Population Classification
% Population
A Country Living
G Rural Reality
K Modest Traditions
U Unclassified
F Senior Security
C City Prosperity
E Suburban Stability
B Prestige Positions
O Municipal Challenge
D Domestic Success
N Vintage Value
M Family Basics
I Urban Cohesion
L Transient Renters
H Aspiring Homemakers
J Rental Hubs
Town Centre
Aylesbury Vale
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.7
3.5
5.6
7.7
9.9
10.2
11.7
49.5
15.2
11.9
1.8
0.8
3.6
0.0
4.5
16.4
0.4
11.1
2.0
8.7
1.5
3.3
14.9
4.0
Source: Experian/ GL Hearn
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Town Centre MOSAIC Groups Plan
8.20
Drilling into the sub-groups within these categories, the following are strongly represented within the
Town Centre area population:
 Career Builders (17%)
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 Central Pulse (14%)
 Primary Ambitions (11%)
 Bus Group Renters (11%)
 Midlife Stopgap (9%);
 Solid Economy (8%).
Housing Offer
8.21
We have next sought to profile the housing offer within the Town Centre area (again using the
boundary shown in Figure 73). Flats make up the majority of homes, as we would expect for a town
centre location, comprising 49% of stock. This is followed by terraced homes (32.2%). Other house
types are under-represented - consistent with higher development densities appropriate to a central
location. The majority of flats are purpose-built.
Table 51: House Types - Aylesbury Town Centre
Detached
Semi-Detached
Terraced
Flat - Total
Purpose-Built Flat
Converted Flat
Flat in Commercial Building
Other
Town Centre
Aylesbury Vale
South East
5.5%
13.0%
32.2%
49.0%
41.3%
5.4%
2.4%
0.3%
32.3%
32.0%
23.5%
12.0%
9.9%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
28.0%
27.6%
22.4%
21.3%
16.1%
4.0%
1.1%
0.7%
Source: 2011 Census
8.22
The Census also allows us to profile the mix of properties of different sizes. The majority of homes
(as we would expect) have between 1 - 3 bedrooms, with 2-bed properties the most prevalent. The
current stock profile and wider evidence suggests a limited market for studios, or for larger property
types.
Table 52: Sizes of Homes - Aylesbury Town Centre
Studio
1-Bed
2-Bed
3-Bed
4-Bed
5+ Bed
Town Centre
Aylesbury Vale
South East
0.3%
25.4%
42.0%
25.1%
5.3%
1.9%
0.2%
9.3%
23.8%
39.3%
20.4%
7.0%
0.2%
11.6%
26.2%
38.9%
17.0%
6.0%
Source: 2011 Census
8.23
Occupancy of housing is slightly more intense than wider areas. The Census suggested that
notionally 8.5% of households are overcrowded. This may in part reflect the profile of residents,
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which includes younger persons and BME groups which can occupy housing more Intensively than
other groups within the population.
8.24
Reflecting the types of households who typically reside in town centre locations, and the nature of
the housing stock, the Town Centre has a higher proportion of households in rented
accommodation or living in shared ownership properties than wider geographies. The tenure profile
is as follows:
 Owner Occupied: 46%
 Private Rented: 30%
 Social Rented: 18%
 Shared Ownership: 5%
 Other: 1%
Tenure Profile – Aylesbury Town Centre
100%
90%
80%
70%
Other
60%
Social Rented
50%
Private Rented
40%
Shared Ownership
30%
Owner Occupied
20%
10%
0%
Town Centre Aylesbury Vale
South East
Source: 2011 Census
8.25
The Census showed that just 0.2% of homes were shared dwellings, suggesting a very limited
market for shared accommodation.
Market Evidence
8.26
We next move on to assess housing market conditions, considering price and sales trends; and
pipeline residential development schemes.
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Pricing
8.27
We have profiled prices and sales trends in 2013 and 2014 for the HP20 1, HP 20 2, HP20 9 and
HP21 7 postcode sectors. In 2014 the average house price in this area was £213,000. Terraced
house prices were at £191,000; whist sales for flats/ maisonettes averaged £123,500. Prices across
all types were higher than in 2013.
Table 53: House Prices - Aylesbury Town Centre
2013
Detached
Flat/Maisonette
Semi-Detached
Terraced
Grand Total
£
£
£
£
£
332,841
116,438
239,787
177,213
206,180
2014
£
£
£
£
£
349,822
123,475
251,379
191,433
212,904
Source: GLH Analysis of HMLR Price Paid Data
8.28
Figure 75 profiles average prices in the Town Centre by house type against those for the District as
a whole. Prices in the Town Centre are below average for the District more widely, most notably for
detached housing (22%). Flatted prices are 9% below the District average; and terraced properties
13%.
Average House Prices - Aylesbury Vale and Aylesbury Town Centre
All Sales
Terraced
District
Semi-Detached
Town Centre
Flat/Maisonette
Detached
£-
£100,000 £200,000 £300,000 £400,000 £500,000
Source: GLH Analysis of HMLR Price Paid Data
Sales
8.29
Figure 76 profiles sales trends. There were 278 sales recorded in the town centre postcode sectors
in 2014, which was 16% down on the 332 recorded the previous year.
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8.30
40% of sales (looking across the two years) were of terraced houses. Flats/maisonettes and semidetached properties each accounted for 22% of sales. 17% of sales were of detached properties.
Sales of Properties by Type - Aylesbury Town Centre
350
300
250
Terraced
200
Semi-Detached
150
Flat/Maisonette
Detached
100
50
0
2013
2014
Source: GLH Analysis of HMLR Price Paid Data
8.31
The HMLR data recorded four new-build sales over the period. However we suspect that this
undercounts new-build development, taking account of the Council's planning completions data.
Development Trends
8.32
A total of 24 dwellings have been completed in the Town Centre since April 2014. These have all
been relatively small schemes, with the largest being two schemes of 6 units at 45 Buckingham
Street and Rycote House.
8.33
As at February 2015, there are 24 schemes with planning permission for residential development in
the Town Centre ("commitments"). The substantive schemes (for more than 20 dwellings) comprise:
 76 units at Sainsbury’s, Buckingham Street;
 58 units on the former County Hall site, Walton Street;
 50 units at 4 Great Western Street
 49 units at Heron House, 49 Buckingham Street; and
 39 units at 80-100 High Street.
8.34
Of these five schemes, one is currently under construction - at 4 Great Western Street. The scheme
provides a mix of flats of 1, 2 and 3 bedrooms. The majority have been sold off plan. Values are of
around £3060 per sq.m.
8.35
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Residential Schemes in the Development Pipeline, Feb 2015
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8.36
Given limited comparable evidence in the Town Centre itself, we have sought to consider pricing in
development schemes close to the Town Centre.
Table 54: Comparable Evidence, Feb 2015
Location
Buckingham Road
Size
3-bed Terrace
Price
£290,000
Osier Way
3-bed Terrace
£280,000
Oxford Road
3-bed Terrace
£220,000 - £257,000
Oxford Road
3-bed Terrace
£220,000
Great Western Road
1-bed Flat
£125,000 - £145,000
Source: GLH Analysis of Prime Location
Agents’ Views
8.37
We have spoken to a number of local agents 9 to understand views regarding the housing market in
the Town Centre. This provides an assessment of market conditions at the point in time of
discussions (February 2015).
8.38
Agents describe an active / busy rental market, where occupier demand is particularly from young
professionals aged 25+. It comprises principally single and couple households seeking 1 or 2 bed
properties. The profile of tenants includes those both working locally and commuting from Aylesbury,
given its good links to London. It was indicated that there is insufficient stock to meet demand,
which is supporting growth in rents. Current rental values are between £695 – 700 per month for 1bed properties; and around £800 per month for 2-beds.
8.39
The investment market is active, with buy-to-let investors attracted to the town centre market given
the strong rental market and investment returns. There are not a significant number of HMOs in
Aylesbury.
8.40
The sales market is also performing well, with the market ‘pushing on’ and prices increasing.
However the age of first-time buyers has been growing, and occupier demand for flats to buy in the
town is more limited than for rent. Households are choosing to rent for longer, and save a deposit
for a house – typically two bed houses in the town, for which there is currently strong demand.
Shared ownership is popular as it offers a way into home ownership for those with an insufficient
deposit to afford to buy outright.
8.41
The sales market in the Town Centre is principally for flats. It is supported by the Town Centre’s
strong transport links, with the strongest demand for areas closest to the Station. The age profile of
9
Connells, Brown and Merry, and Michael Anthony
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buyers is wider than in the rental market, and includes those working within the Town and commute
out to work.
8.42
Recent new-build schemes, such as Abbey Homes’ scheme on the Buckingham Road and Drake’s
Place on Oxford Road (outside but close to the Town Centre) have both performed well and sold
quickly. Agents appear confident that the market could support an increased pace of new-build
development in the Town Centre.
8.43
Occupier demand for properties to buy is expected to be principally for one- and two-bed flats.
Three-bed properties in the Town Centre have historically not been as popular, given the supply of
3-bed semi- / terraced homes elsewhere in the Town. Overall flatted development is expected to be
particularly attractive to investment buyers.
8.44
Current prices for flats in the Town Centre range from between £150,000 and £200,000, which is
currently considered the top of the market; and buys a 2-bed house elsewhere within the Town
(with 2-bed houses typically priced between £200,000 - £240,000).
8.45
GL Hearn would expect there to be demand for specialist accommodation for older persons as well,
focused on the ‘quieter’ parts of the centre. We note that there have been successful schemes of
older persons accommodation delivered in other locations in the town such as Griffin Lane. The
Town Centre would be a suitable location which provided good access to services and public
transport.
Future Drivers of Change
Town Centre Plan
8.46
The Aylesbury Town Centre Plan sets out a vision for the town centre and principles to guide major
development and change. It has been developed by Aylesbury Vale District Council, together with
Aylesbury Town Council and Buckinghamshire County Council and wider stakeholders.
8.47
The Plan's vision seeks to deliver a high profile, sub-regional centre for entertainment and the arts,
which provides a quality, day and evening environment in terms of leisure, retail and food and drink.
It’s ambition Is to develop the cultural offer including through street performance and festivals and a
vibrant live music scene; to enhance links to the centre, the public realm as well as the range of
shopping and leisure facilities. Developing the residential offer is a core component of the plan's
aspiration.
8.48
Key areas of change are Waterside North and Waterside South. A masterplan has been developed
for the Waterside North site to deliver a new square and improved public realm along Walton Street
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and Exchange Square, with mixed use development comprising retail, residential and leisure. The
Phase 1 planning application includes up to 9,500 sq.m of residential floorspace. The focus for
Waterside South Is on delivering a new education facility/ university centre to augment recent
investment which includes the Waterside Threatre, Travelodge Hotel and Waitrose foodstore.
East-West Rail
8.49
The construction of the Western Section of East-West Rail was confirmed by Government in July
2012. This is now a committed, funded infrastructure scheme which will result in the re-introduction
of passenger and freight rail services between Bedford, Oxford, Milton Keynes and Aylesbury
through the upgrading and reconstruction of section of existing and mothballed rail track.
8.50
The scheme will deliver an hourly rail service from Aylesbury north to Milton Keynes, linking with the
West Coast Main Line and significantly improving connectivity northwards. New services are
currently scheduled to begin operation in December 2017. This can be expected to support
potential for residential development in Aylesbury Town Centre through improving connectivity to
Milton Keynes; and through support job creation within Aylesbury Town Centre.
Implications
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
Aylesbury Town Centre benefits from strong accessibility and a reasonable (and improving)
evening economy. The Town Centre Plan proposes further investment in the centre.

We would expect the market for new-build development to be focused towards childless
households principally in their 20s and 30s, and investors catering for rental demand from
this demographic. This is likely to include a mix of people working locally, and young
professionals commuting out of the area, particularly to London. The market is thus
expected to be strongest close to the Rail Station.

We would expect development to be focused on flatted properties and town houses.
Development of over 4 storeys is unlikely to be viable in many instances, comparing current
values of around £250 - 275 per square foot with build costs. We would expect demand to
be focused towards one- and two-bed properties, with potential for some three-bed units.
Government schemes such as Help-to-Buy as well as shared ownership homes can be
expected to be popular.

Distance from London and the town’s wider housing offer influence the scale of the market
and potential absorption rate for new-build development. We consider that a typical
absorption rate would be of around 50 units per annum; and it is likely that absorption of
much over 80 units per annum could be challenging given performance in similar towns.
Market absorption will however vary with market conditions.
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COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET ASSESSMENT
National Economic Conditions
9.1
Nationally, economic growth has been above trend over the last year and a half supported by
growth across a range of different parts of the economy. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
published its Economic and Fiscal Outlook in December 2014. GDP growth was revised upwards to
3.0% for 2014, having been previously forecast at 2.7%.
9.2
However the OBR expect economic momentum to weaken through 2015, forecasting GDP growth
in 2015 of 2.5%. This is attributed to weaker external demand and the expectation that consumer
spending growth will slow to rates more in line with growth in people’s incomes. Manufacturing
output is weakening linked to continuing weak performance of the Eurozone, which is a major
export market for UK manufacturers.
9.3
The OBR reports that the pick-up in growth since early 2013 reflects a cyclical recovery in demand
which is supported by growing confidence and improving credit conditions. However, this has not
been accompanied by an improvement in underlying supply potential.
9.4
Recent growth in employment across the UK has been very strong, and this has fed into occupier
demand for property. However a significant proportion of recent growth in employment relates to
growing self-employment, rather than employee jobs.
9.5
The Office of National Statistics reported in January 2015 that the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
increased by 0.5% in the year to December 2014, down from 1.0% in the year to November. Taken
as a whole, prices for services increased by 2.3% in the year to December 2014 while prices for
goods decreased by 1.0%. The main contribution to the slowdown in the inflation rate came from a
fall in gas and electricity prices.
9.6
The Bank of England base rate continues to remain at its historic low of 0.5%. Forward guidance
provided by the Governor of the Bank of England in August 2013 stated that a rise in the base rate
would not be considered until the rate of unemployment fell below 7%. In February 2014, as
unemployment approached 7%, the MPC made a further guidance statement. This reported that
despite the sharp fall in unemployment, there remains scope to absorb spare capacity further
before raising the Bank Rate. When Bank Rate does begin to rise, this is expected to be gradual,
with the approach to eliminate slack over the next two to three years and keep inflation close to the
2% target.
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9.7
Growth in house prices has been supported by an improvement in the availability and a reduction in
the cost of credit, partly as a result of the Government’s ‘Funding for Lending’ and ‘Help to Buy’
schemes. This is an important influence on the construction sector.
9.8
Consumer confidence has increased significantly in recent months with signs that the UK economy
is gathering momentum. Output increased in three of the four main industrial groupings within the
economy in Q1 2014 compared with Q4 2013. In the services sector, which represents three
quarters of economic output, output increased by 0.9%, there was 0.8% increase in production and
0.3% increase in construction. However, output decreased by 0.7% in agriculture.
9.9
The OBR’s December 2014 consensus forecasts expect 2.4% GDP growth in 2015 with growth of
between 2.2 – 2.4% per annum expected in the medium term to 2019.
Office Market Review
9.10
At a national level, the office market performed strongly in 2013 with take-up 33% up on the
previous year. The first half of 2014 saw more modest take-up, despite improving wider economic
confidence according to Lambert Smith Hampton. Availability levels have however continued to fall,
and are now below the 10 year average reflecting limited new development since 2009. Availability
of Grade A stock remains relatively static with main movement at the secondary end of the market.
Speculative development has begun to return, although this has been limited to the larger regional
centres. Falling availability is now starting to feed through into positive rental growth in some areas.
9.11
Trends in office take-up are upwards, reflecting wider economic drivers. Development activity is
increasing, but from a low level. Rental growth is positive with the South East region seeing the
most investment outside London and consequently returns here were on a par with Central London
at 13-14%. In areas with limited supply of quality space, rental growth can be expected to
accelerate.
9.12
In addition to increased take-up, there has been a significant decrease in the amount of office
space available, due in part to increased redevelopment of secondary office space to other useclasses. This has particularly been seen since the Government’s 2013 relaxation of permitted
development lights.
Sub-Regional Market
9.13
The Buckinghamshire office market is strongest in the southern part of the county where the close
proximity to the M25 and M40, and short travel time to Heathrow airport are attractive to national
and international businesses. A considerable amount of office space is located within South Bucks
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District which has stronger economic relationships with the Slough and M4 corridor than the north of
the county.
9.14
The majority of the county lies beyond the catchment of these major transport links. Therefore the
office market in the districts of Aylesbury Vale, Wycombe, and most of Chiltern is more localised
meeting the needs of local businesses.
9.15
The majority of Aylesbury Vale’s office stock is based in Aylesbury itself based on the latest VOA
data (although it should be noted that this dates from 2008), showing 67% of the district’s office
floorspace is located in the town.
9.16
The vast majority of office space currently on the market in Aylesbury Vale is second hand Grade B
stock. There is limited new build or refurbished stock available. Headline rents for Grade A space in
the Vale currently stands at around £14-15 psf. This is generally insufficient to support speculative
office development.
9.17
Colliers statistics allow us to track the rental tone in larger local office markets. In High Wycombe,
Grade-A prime rents are at around £20.00 psf. The north Buckinghamshire market is dominated by
Milton Keynes which has a well-developed office market with an existing critical mass of large
corporate operators as well as offering strong transport links with proximity to the M1 and good
quality rail links to London. Milton Keynes saw the highest office market activity in the M1 corridor in
2014 with over 240,000 sq ft from take-up in units over 5,000 sq ft. Rents for Grade A space in
Milton Keynes are £21.00 psf, with refurbished space reaching around £19 per sq ft.
Office Take-Up
9.18
Figure 78 profiles the number of deals for office space recorded by EGi in Aylesbury Vale District.
An average of 21 deals per annum has been recorded since 2005. The chart shows a decline in
take-up following the recession in 2008. Levels of take-up in 2014 remained below the prerecession levels suggesting that the office market is still recovering.
9.19
Figure 78 also demonstrates that the profile of demand is focused on SMEs requiring units of 185
sq m or less with 55% of deals being for units within this size bracket. In particular there are few
deals from larger corporate occupiers requiring over 1,850 sq m. Over the 2005-14 period shown,
5% of deals were in this category; 8% were for units of 465-1,850 sq m; 24% for 185-465 sq m; and
8% of the deals reported no size.
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Profile of Office Deals in Aylesbury Vale by Size, 2005-14
35
30
No of Deals
25
No Size Reported
20
< 185 sq m
185 - 465 sq m
15
465 - 1850 sq m
> 1850 sq m
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
9.20
Figure 79 profiles take-up in the district over time by size band. Average annual office take-up in the
Vale was 11,200 sq m per annum over the 2005-14 period. This figure is however skewed by the
sale of the HBOS Campus in Aylesbury in 2006 which lists the 43,800 sq m site area. Excluding this
figure the average annual take-up was 6,800 sq m. We consider this to provide a more realistic
assessment of the scale of the office market.
Office Floorspace Take-Up in Aylesbury Vale by Size Band, 2005-14
60,000
Floorspace (sq m)
50,000
40,000
< 185 sq m
185 - 465 sq m
30,000
465 - 1850 sq m
20,000
> 1850 sq m
10,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
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9.21
Office take-up in Aylesbury Vale is modest when compared to neighbouring authorities. Figure 79
shows office take-up in the three districts which form the Central Bucks FEMA – Aylesbury Vale,
Chiltern, and Wycombe – as well as Milton Keynes. The scale of office take-up in Chiltern is less
than the Vale with an average take-up of 6,500 sq m per annum over this period. Wycombe has
seen a considerably higher take-up of office space with an annual average of 28,800 sq m. Milton
Keynes has a higher rate of office take-up still, with an annual average of 46,600 sq m over the
period. The office market in Aylesbury Vale is thus more modest in scale than in either Wycombe
or Milton Keynes.
Office Floorspace Take-Up in Aylesbury Vale and Neighbouring Districts, 2005-14
80,000
70,000
Floorspace (sq m)
60,000
50,000
Aylesbury Vale
Chiltern
40,000
Milton Keynes
30,000
Wycombe
20,000
10,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
9.22
In terms of unit size, take-up of larger units of 1,850 sq m and over has been predominantly in
Milton Keynes with 57% of larger unit deals across the authority areas being located in Milton
Keynes. 16% of such deals were in Aylesbury Vale.
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Total Office Floorspace Take-Up in Aylesbury Vale and Neighbouring Districts,
2005-2014
900,000
800,000
Floorspace (sq m)
700,000
600,000
No Size Reported
500,000
< 185 sq m
400,000
185 - 465 sq m
300,000
465 - 1850 sq m
> 1850 sq m
200,000
100,000
0
Aylesbury
Vale
Chiltern
Milton Keynes
Wycombe
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
Office Availability
9.23
EGi records 84 available office units in Aylesbury Vale as of February 2015. The breakdown of
available office units is shown in Figure 81 below, which covers the three Central Bucks FEMA
authorities as well as Milton Keynes. There are slightly more available office units in Aylesbury Vale
than there are in Chiltern (74), but notably fewer than in Wycombe (146). All three FEMA authorities
are dwarfed by the office market in Milton Keynes which boasts 299 available units.
9.24
Within the District, 75% of available office units (63 units) are located within Aylesbury. 12 units
(14% of district total) are available in Buckingham, with 9 (11%) distributed among the smaller
settlements. The majority of the larger units are located within Aylesbury, with 27 of the district’s 30
available office units located within the town.
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Profile of Office Availability, February 2015
350
300
Available Units
250
< 185 sq m
200
185 - 465 sq m
465 - 1850 sq m
150
> 1850 sq m
100
50
0
Aylesbury Vale
Chiltern
Milton Keynes
Wycombe
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
9.25
The floorspace profile of available office units in the Vale shows that the available stock is focused
on smaller premises with 64% of units under 185 sq m in size, and 4% over 1,850 sq m. Chiltern
has a similar proportion of smaller units to the Vale but also fewer larger units. Wycombe and Milton
Keynes offer a wider range of unit sizes, both having around 45% of available units in the sub-185
sq m bracket and greater proportions in the 185-465 sq m category.
9.26
The available office space in Aylesbury Vale totals a combined floorspace of 41,000 sq m. This
includes a 16,000 sq m new build data centre at Pitstone Green Business Park, which is being
advertised as 16 units of 1,000 sq m each. Other than this unit, the vast majority of available
floorspace is located in Aylesbury with 22,800 sq m located within the town. This equates to 91% of
the District’s floorspace excluding the 16,000 sq m unit above. Within Aylesbury itself, there is only
one new build development currently being advertised which is at Paragon Two in Rabans Lane
Industrial Area which will provide 6,700 – 13,400 sq ft.
9.27
Figure 82 shows the total available office floorspace in Aylesbury Vale and neighbouring districts.
This shows the office offer in Milton Keynes overshadowing the three authorities of the Central
Bucks FEMA. The combined total availability of the three Central Bucks authorities is 124,000 sq m,
much less than the Milton Keynes total of 161,000 sq m.
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Office Floorspace Availability, February 2015
180,000
160,000
Floorspace (sq m)
140,000
120,000
< 185 sq m
100,000
185 - 465 sq m
80,000
465 - 1850 sq m
60,000
> 1850 sq m
40,000
20,000
0
Aylesbury
Vale
Chiltern
Milton Keynes
Wycombe
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
9.28
In Aylesbury Vale the total 41,000 sq m of currently available office space would comprise 3.7 years
supply based on past take-up over the last ten years. This level of supply is higher than seen in the
neighbouring authorities. In Chiltern the 14,000 sq m of available office space would comprise 2.1
years supply. In Wycombe 69,000 sq m of available office space would comprise 2.4 years supply.
In Milton Keynes the 161,000 sq m of available office space would comprise 3.5 years supply.
9.29
Figure 84 profiles availability by type of space and location/ type of site within Aylesbury Vale. The
office space being marketed is split between second-hand space (53%) and new-build space (42%),
with a small amount (6%) of refurbished space. The majority (16,000 sq m) of the new build space
is at Pitstone Green Business Park.
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Office Floorspace Availability in Aylesbury Vale by Quality, February 2015
25,000
Floorspace (sq m)
20,000
15,000
< 185 sq m
185 - 465 sq m
465 - 1850 sq m
10,000
> 1850 sq m
5,000
0
Second-hand
New - New Build
New - Refurb
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
Industrial Sector Review
9.30
Overall, the UK industrial market is currently in a strong position with high demand for both
industrial and logistic warehouse space. UK manufacturing is benefitting from growth in key sectors
such as the advanced engineering, aerospace, and automotive industrial sectors.
9.31
Nationally, there was an increase in take-up of industrial space in 2014 on the previous year. There
is a lack of available Grade-A space nationally limiting growth in some sectors. In the industrial
sector, average rental values started increasing in Spring 2013 and have accelerated through the
first half of 2014 – particularly for prime markets such as London and the South East. Development
levels are improving as a result of rising capital values, low (but increasing) tender price inflation,
improving availability of finance and a decreasing supply of Grade A space according to GVA . GVA
expect industrial rents to continue to grow in the short-term at 2.8-3.0% per annum.
9.32
Nationally, there is a growing demand for large scale logistics warehouses. This is, in part, driven
by the continuing growth of the on-line retail sector and increasing customer expectations for sameor next-day delivery. This is driving demand for retailers to have a larger number of smaller regional
depots. These uses generally require excellent motorway access, and as such Milton Keynes, with
its proximity to the M1, dominates the sub-regional market attracting the larger national and
international operators. Notable recent deals including Waitrose taking 87,000 sq m of distribution
warehouse space at Magna Park in early 2014.
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9.33
Aylesbury Vale offers no particular strength for “big box” warehouses and the market in the District
is instead more focussed on smaller scale manufacturing occupiers. The Vale’s industrial stock is
more disaggregated than its office stock. The latest VOA data (from 2008) shows that 36% of the
district’s industrial floorspace is located in Aylesbury town. To the north of the district is Silverstone
circuit which supports associated employment uses along the Aylesbury Vale / South
Northamptonshire boundary.
There is also a concentration of industrial floorspace at both
Buckingham and Haddenham.
9.34
Colliers statistics allow us to track the rental tone in the local market. In Aylesbury, for small sheds
(929 - 2,787 sq m), prime rents (for new-build space) are at around £8.00 psf. This compares to
£7.00 in 2014. For second hand space (such as early 1990s accommodation), the rental tone is
around £6.50 psf, up from £5.00 psf in 2014. For new-build space the rental tone would support
land values of £650,000 per acre.
9.35
In comparison with neighbouring areas, small sheds prime rents in High Wycombe are at around
£9.50 psf, up from £8.50 in 2014. For second hand space such as early 1990s accommodation, the
rental tone is around £8.00 psf up from £6.00 psf in 2014. For new-build space the rental tone
would support land values of £900,000 per acre. In Milton Keynes, small sheds prime rents are at
around £7.75 psf, up from £7.00 in 2014. For second hand space such as early 1990s
accommodation, the rental tone is around £5.50 psf up from £4.50 psf in 2014. For new-build space
the rental tone would support land values of £850,000 per acre.
Industrial Take-up
9.36
Figure 85 below tracks the volume of deals for industrial space recorded in Aylesbury Vale since
2005. On average 30.5 deals are recorded per year (including new-build and second hand space).
24% are for units of under 185 sq m; 37% for units of 185-465 sq m; 25% for those between 4651850 sq m; and 11% for those of over 1,850 sq m. 4% of deals reported no size. By way of
comparison, over this period there was an average of 99 deals per annum in Milton Keynes, 47
deals per annum in Wycombe, and 14 in Chiltern.
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Industrial Deals, Aylesbury Vale 2005-14
45
40
35
No of Deals
30
No Size Reported
25
< 185 sq m
185 - 465 sq m
20
465 - 1850 sq m
15
> 1850 sq m
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
9.37
Figure 86 quantifies the trend in floorspace take-up (again including both new-build and second
hand space). Industrial take-up in Aylesbury Vale has averaged 27,200 sq m per annum over the
2005-14 period.
Industrial Floorspace Take-Up, Aylesbury Vale 2005-14
70,000
Floorspace (sq m)
60,000
50,000
< 185 sq m
40,000
185 - 465 sq m
465 - 1850 sq m
30,000
> 1850 sq m
20,000
10,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
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9.38
Figure 87 compares the take-up of floorspace in Aylesbury Vale and neighbouring authorities.
Clearly, the Milton Keynes market is more substantial in size, dominates the local market with 68%
of total industrial take-up across the four authorities occurring in Milton Keynes. 14% of total takeup was in Wycombe; 13% in Aylesbury Vale, and 5% in Chiltern.
Industrial Take-Up by District, 2005-14
350,000
Floorspace (sq m)
300,000
250,000
Aylesbury Vale
200,000
Chiltern
Milton Keynes
150,000
Wycombe
100,000
50,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
Industrial Availability
9.39
As of February 2015, there is 115,000 sq m of industrial floorspace available and being actively
marketed on EGi in Aylesbury Vale. This is more than the other Central Bucks authorities: 74,700
sq m in Wycombe and 13,900 in Chiltern. Figure 87 shows how this splits down by size band. 61%
of the available floorspace in the Vale is in large units of over 1,850 sq m. There are 16 units of
1,850 sq m or larger. Of the 149 available industrial units in Aylesbury Vale, 52 (35%) are smaller
than 185 sq m. This is notably more than the other districts.
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Available Industrial Floorspace, February 2015
250,000
Floorspace (sq m)
200,000
150,000
< 185 sq m
185 - 465 sq m
100,000
465 - 1850 sq m
> 1850 sq m
50,000
0
Aylesbury
Vale
Chiltern
Milton Keynes
Wycombe
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
9.40
In Aylesbury Vale the total 115,000 sq m of currently available industrial space would comprise 4.2
years supply based on past take-up over the last five years. This level of supply is much higher than
seen in the neighbouring authorities. In Chiltern the 14,000 sq m of available industrial space would
comprise 1.5 years supply. In Wycombe 69,000 sq m of available industrial space would comprise
2.3 years supply. In Milton Keynes the 161,000 sq m of available industrial space would comprise
1.1 years supply.
9.41
Figure 89 profiles the quality of floorspace available in the Vale. 92,000 sq m of available floorspace
is second-hand grade. This accounts for 80% of total available floorspace. As of February 2015
there is one new build property available – a 10,700 sq m unit at Winslow Business Park. In
addition there is 9,600 sq m of refurbished floorspace and 2,800 sq m of design and build space.
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Industrial Floorspace Availability by Quality, Aylesbury Vale February 2015
100,000
90,000
Floorspace (sq m)
80,000
70,000
60,000
< 185 sq m
50,000
185 - 465 sq m
40,000
465 - 1850 sq m
30,000
> 1850 sq m
20,000
10,000
0
Second-hand
New - New
Build
New - Refurb Design & Build
Source: EGi/ GL Hearn
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Implications
GL Hearn
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
The market analysis highlights the modest scale of the commercial property market in
Aylesbury Vale. The sub-regional markets for both office and industrial space are dominated
by Milton Keynes, which offers better transportation links and has a larger critical mass of
existing occupiers. The Central Bucks FEMA in contrast is largely focussed around local
provision and SMEs.

Within the Central Bucks FEMA, Wycombe has seen stronger take-up in terms of both office
and industrial stock than seen in Aylesbury Vale, with Chiltern seeing the least activity.
Wycombe benefits from stronger comparative accessibility.

Availability of office stock reflects these take-up patterns with the majority of available
floorspace being in Milton Keynes, with the Vale offering less than Wycombe but more than
Chiltern. However, Aylesbury Vale has the largest available industrial stock in the FEMA,
second only to Milton Keynes. The majority of available stock is second-hand.

We would expect new-build office (B1a) development to be focused on the following:
 Small-scale development to meet occupier demand from SMEs which is largely
based in Aylesbury, principally on a leasehold basis.
 Providing better quality floorspace for the limited number of current corporate
occupiers in Aylesbury Town. The potential for inward investment by corporates is
limited.

Headline rents for Grade A office space in the Vale currently stands at around £14-15 psf.
This is generally insufficient to support speculative office development. Viability of office
development in Aylesbury, particularly in the Town Centre, is likely to be challenging and
would require developers to secure pre-lets from firms willing to pay a premium rent for newbuild space. This is likely to limit the scale of growth in office floorspace.

We would expect industrial development to be similarly focussed around meeting the
demands of SMEs, although would expect greater spatial disaggregation of development
across the District. As well as some development in Aylesbury, we would expect
development at Silverstone Circuit, as well as at existing industrial estates in other
settlements including Buckingham and Haddenham.
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BASELINE ECONOMIC FORECASTS
10.1
This section moves on to consider future economic growth potential in Aylesbury Vale. It considers
how the economy might perform based on past trends, and draws together three econometric
forecasts to provide a ‘synthesis’ baseline forecast for future economic performance in the District.
Reviewing Economic Forecasts
10.2
Aylesbury Vale has a successful local economy. Total employment stood at 85,000 in 2012. This
represented an increase of 7,700 over the level a decade earlier (2002-12), equivalent to 10%
employment growth compared to 5.7% achieved across the South East and 5.5% across the UK,
based on Cambridge Econometrics’ data.
10.3
The largest employment sectors in the District are business support services, education, retail,
health and the public sector. Besides business support services, these are large employment
sectors in many areas.
10.4
The District has an above average representation (in relative terms) of employment in the
motorsport sector (principally in the north of the Vale); in public administration (particularly in
Aylesbury); and in the agricultural sector and food and drink manufacturing.
10.5
To provide a starting point for considering economic growth potential, we have sought to assess
and compare three econometric projections, these being:
 Cambridge Econometrics (CE) LEFM Forecasts, Summer 2014;
 Oxford Economics’ (OE) East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM), Spring 2015; and
 Experian Quarterly UK Local Market Forecasts, Spring 2015.
10.6
Economic forecasting is not an exact science and these forecasts should be considered as a
starting point for establishing economic growth potential. They are mathematical models based on
past trends and will not capture factors which may influence future performance which have not
been present in the past.
10.7
Table 55 shows the increase in the number of jobs expected in 2033 from 2013 levels. Over the 20year period studied the EEFM 2015 forecasts expects an increase of around 15,500 jobs – this is
an increase of about 17.8% from 2013 levels. The CE forecasts are lower, showing growth in
employment of 12,900 (a 14.9% increase on slightly higher baseline job estimates for 2013).
Experian forecasts are higher, showing employment growth of 18,000 to 2033 (22.2%), from a
lower baseline estimate of employment in 2013.
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10.8
It should be noted that the EEFM and Experian forecasts only provides a forecast to 2031, and we
have therefore projected employment to 2033 based on the change in the number of jobs by sector
in the forecast over the 2026-31 period.
Table 55: Baseline Employment Forecasts – Employment Growth, 2013-33
Projection
Jobs (2013)
Jobs (2033)
Change
(2013-33)
% change
from 2013
87,100
86,300
83,000
102,600
99,200
101,400
15,500
12,900
18,400
17.8%
14.9%
22.2%
EEFM (Oxford Economics)
Cambridge Econometrics
Experian
Source: EEFM, Cambridge Econometrics and Experian
10.9
Figure 90 below shows how these forecasts are expecting to see the change in jobs over time
(along with a past trend from each source).
Past and Projected Employment – Aylesbury Vale
120.0
Employment (000s)
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
0.0
CE
EEFM
Experian
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, EEFM, and Experian
10.10
None of the individual forecasts is inherently right or wrong. They simply provide alternative views
regarding how the economy might perform. Table 56 shows the annual growth rates in employment
of the three forecasts. This varies from between 0.8 – 1.1% per annum.
Table 56: Assessing Annual Economic Growth – Aylesbury Vale (CAGRs)
Cambridge
EEFM
Experian
GL Hearn
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1981-2013
1991-2013
2001-2013
1.2%
0.8%
1.3%
2013-2033
0.7%
0.3%
1.0%
0.9%
0.7%
1.1%
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10.11
The forecast data also highlights issues with accurately quantifying total employment. A key issue
here in that there is no census of employment. ONS publishes two sources of employment
estimates at local authority level. The first is the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES),
a survey of businesses which is completed by businesses owners who are registered for VAT /
PAYE. The second is the Annual Population Survey, a quarterly survey of households which
incorporates the Labour Force Survey.
10.12
“Estimates” of jobs are compiled principally from these two data sources. There are notable
potential data issues associated with employment statistics. BRES does not capture some small
businesses (such as those falling below the VAT threshold), not armed forced personnel or those
on official government training schemes. There can also be instances when all business employees
can be counted at the registered address of the business, when in fact the jobs may actually take
place at locations across the UK. APS data is modelled from a sample survey at people’s doors,
and thus there is potential for some overlap with BRES data. It is a residence-based survey, but
does ask where people work. However its sample means that the data can have a relatively large
error margin, the impact of which can be seen in the volatility of the data year-on-year.
10.13
Because of these data issues it is necessary to “model” past employment trends. In doing so, the
different forecasting houses come up with slightly different estimates.
10.14
The three forecasts expect differing levels of employment growth over the period to 2033. The key
differences between these relate in particular to expectations about how various sectors might
perform. Figure 90 explores this.
10.15
Experian’s forecasts are the most positive. In particular this reflects an expectation of stronger
growth in professional and other private services, as well as construction and manufacturing.
Experian expect employment in public services and transport and storage to fall.
10.16
The biggest difference between the forecasts is in Professional and Other Private Service sector
where the EEFM shows a considerable growth of 10,900 jobs. The CE and Experian forecasts
shows considerably less growth in this sector with grows of 6,800 and 6,200 jobs respectively. The
Experian forecast shows larger increases in the Public Service sector forecasting a growth of 4,100
jobs compared to 1,800 for the CE forecast and 400 for EEFM. Experian also forecasts greater
growth in the Wholesale and Retail sectors than the other two forecasts with 4,000 additional jobs
compared to 2,300 for EEFM, and 1,200 for the CE forecasts. The CE and EEFM forecasts show a
greater (although still modest) loss of manufacturing jobs while Experian forecasts a modest
increase in this sector.
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Forecast Employment Growth by Sector, Aylesbury Vale 2013-33
Utilities
Transport and Storage
Public Services
Professional and Other Private Services
Manufacturing
Information and Communitcation
Finance and Insurance
Extraction and Mining
Wholesale & Retail
Construction
Accommodation, Food Services, and Recreation
Agriculture
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
Experian
2.00
4.00
EEFM
CE
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Source: GL Hearn / Forecasts
10.17
None of the forecasts are inherently ‘better.’ They provide alternative ‘views’ on how different
sectors in the economy might perform. However for the purposes of providing a starting point for
considering future economic performance, GL Hearn considers that it would be sensible to take the
average of the three forecasts on a sector basis to provide a “Synthesis Baseline” Forecast. This
Synthesis Forecast sees an average annual employment growth over the plan period of 780 jobs
per annum.
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Table 57: Comparing the Three Forecasts, Sector Growth 2013-31
10.18
CE
EEFM
Experian
Synthesis
Agriculture
Accommodation, Food Services, and
Recreation
-0.03
-0.20
-0.33
-0.19
1.22
0.36
0.74
0.77
Construction
2.95
2.28
2.75
2.66
Wholesale & Retail
1.23
2.27
3.98
2.49
Extraction and Mining
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
Finance and Insurance
0.01
0.06
0.38
0.15
Information and Communication
0.16
0.69
-0.10
0.25
Manufacturing
-1.57
-0.97
0.89
-0.55
Professional and Other Private Services
6.81
10.91
6.17
7.96
Public Services
1.83
0.40
4.08
2.11
Transport and Storage
0.05
-0.28
-0.42
-0.22
Utilities
0.26
-0.05
0.24
0.15
Total
12.89
15.48
18.38
15.58
This Synthesis Forecast provide an assessment of how the District’s economy might perform,
based on historical trends. In the next section we move on to consider whether there are particular
local drivers or planned investment which might result in a different rate of employment growth than
shown in the Synthesis Forecast.
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LOCAL ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVERS
11.1
To consider further economic growth potential we have sought to analyse the economic strategies
of the two Local Enterprise Partnerships which Aylesbury Vale sits within, as well as the Council’s
own Economic Development Strategy. We have then sought to consider whether there are other
initiatives or projects which might result in a deviation of forecasts from past trends, particularly in
respect of factors and economic drivers which have not appeared within the ‘history.’ These issues
together with the commercial market analysis, have helped to inform consideration of economic
growth potential in this report.
Local Enterprise Partnership Strategic Economic Plans
11.2
Aylesbury Vale is active within two LEP areas - Buckinghamshire Thames Valley Local Enterprise
Partnership (BTVLEP), and The South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP). We
consider the LEPs’ Strategic Economic Plans below.
Buckinghamshire Thames Valley Local Enterprise Partnership (BTVLEP)
11.3
The BTVLEP covers Buckinghamshire County Council and the districts of Aylesbury Vale, High
Wycombe, South Buckinghamshire, and Chiltern. The BTVLEP Strategic Economic Plan (SEP)
found that Aylesbury Vale District has seen quite a significant ‘shift’ in its industrial structure with
increases in the Professional, Scientific and Technical and Administrative and Support Service
sectors and decreases in the Wholesale/Retail and Health/Social Care sectors.
11.4
BTVLEP identified the following priorities for developing sustainable economic growth:
 Forcing a step change in Buckinghamshire’s export performance: particularly in mid-sized and
large businesses, which appear to be lagging behind;
 Accelerating innovation in ambitious, growth orientated companies and our priority sectors:
particularly High Performance Technology (Micro-electronics, Test and Measurement; and
Aerospace, Defence and Space); Life-sciences & Medical Technologies (Drugs Manufacture &
Delivery Technology; Medical devices and Healthcare systems & services); Information
Economy (Cyber Security and Big Data); Creative Industries (Film, Digital Media; and Games
Development); Food and Drink; Business Services; Tourism; Retail and Care;
 Operating the most professional “Open for Business” planning service in the Country;
 Stimulating more ambitious high growth start-up businesses: particularly in the ‘Plan for Growth’
sectors in which our skills system and our strong industrial base excels;
 Plugging identified gaps in access to finance for high growth potential firms;
 Promoting business resource efficiency & resilience; to support businesses to reduce costs and
waste.
11.5
The Buckinghamshire Thames Valley Growth Deal secured funding from the Government’s Local
Growth Fund to support the following projects which influence Aylesbury Vale:
 Awarded £12 million for the Aylesbury Eastern Link Road and Stocklake Link Road. This
application was supported by South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP).
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 Awarded £1.8m into improving bus and cycle connections between Buckingham and the East
West Rail station in Winslow.
11.6
The Aylesbury Eastern Link Road will provide a new orbital link between the A418 Bierton Road
and the A41 Tring Road to the east of Aylesbury, and improvements to the Stocklake Link Road to
the east of Aylesbury Town Centre. This will connect 400ha of expansion land through the
Aylesbury East Expansion to improve transport links through Eastern Aylesbury and unlock over
£120m of land assets. Aylesbury East has planning permission for 2,450 homes and 10 hectares of
employment land.
11.7
In addition funding was made available to develop the business support offer in Buckinghamshire
through an injection of revenue funding for the Buckinghamshire Business First Growth Hub. The
Deal will also bring the benefits of 5G wireless telecommunications technology.
The South East Midlands Local Enterprise Partnership (SEMLEP)
11.8
The SEMLEP Strategic Economic Plan reports that a key strength of the South East Midlands
economy is its diverse range of sectors and specialisms. The area has a particularly strong
foundation in High Performance Technology, including precision engineering, Manufacturing and
Advanced Technology, including food and drink, Logistics (as a result of its prime location) and the
Creative and Cultural industries.
11.9
SEMLEP aims to develop its capabilities in advanced technologies and precision engineering,
including environmental and low carbon technology, high performance engineering, motorsport,
aerospace, automotive and sustainable construction. Other identified key sectors include sportrelated industries and the visitor economy.
11.10
The SEP identifies key economic growth assets in Aylesbury Vale as including ARLA Dairy and
Silverstone Circuit. The SEP identifies a number of infrastructure projects required to overcome
barriers to economic growth. Table 57 below summarises the infrastructure projects in Aylesbury
Vale, ranked in order of delivery priority. However, funding was only sought for the delivery of the
top four ranked projects.
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Table 58: SEMLEP Potential LGF Investment Pipeline – Aylesbury Project Rankings
Priority
(Out of
24)
5
Project
Name
Abthorpe
Roundabout
(Silverstone)
11
Waterside
North
14
Eastern Link
Road
including
Stocklake
Link Road
(Aylesbury)
Lead
South
Northants
Aylesbury
Aylesbury
Total
project
costs
(£m)
26.0
Total
LGF
cost
4.5
LGF
15/16
(£m)
2.0
Other
Public
Sector
(£m)
0.0
Total
Private
Sector
(£m)
21.5
%
Private
Sector
83%
Outputs
Joint
Bid
3,800 jobs
(200
construction)
SEMLEP
bid
NEP
Support
2,750
homes
16.50
29.6
3.25
18.4
3.25
6.5
10.0
2.4
0.0
8.9
0.0
30%
400 jobs
(100
construction)
6,417 jobs
(292
construction)
2,825
homes
BTVLEP
bid
(£3.25m)
SEMLEP
bid
(£3.25m)
BTVLEP
bid
SEMLEP
support
Source: SEMPLEP SEP (2014)
11.11
Funding was only secured for the third of the above, the Eastern Link Road; however improvements
to the Abthorpe Roundabout have since secured funding through the Government’s Road
Investment Programme.
Aylesbury Vale Economic Development Strategy 2011-14
11.12
The Council’s current Economic Development Strategy sets a vision for the Vale as a vibrant
dynamic business location. Key threads of the Strategy include:
 Encouraging start-ups and business growth - including through the delivery of the Waterside
Academy;
 Infrastructure investment – delivering East-West Rail, the Aylesbury Eastern Link Road and
superfast broadband;
 Targeting and supporting growth-orientated employers – helping to address issues such as
finance, expert advice and premises;
 Inward Investment – promoting a ‘niche’ offer targeted at local sector strengths in high
performance engineering; rehabilitation and telehealth technologies; food and drink; and ICT;
 Enhancing Knowledge-Economy Skills: including through encouraging collaboration between
businesses and universities etc.
11.13
The Strategy seeks to secure investment in infrastructure, including skills and training, supporting
existing employers and targeting niche sectors which are identified locally as having growth
potential within the District.
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Other Key Potential Growth Drivers
11.14
GL Hearn, working with AVDC, has also sought to consider and identify planned investments which
could support economic growth. We identify four potential key drivers.
Silverstone Masterplan
11.15
AVDC and South Northamptonshire Council have jointly adopted a Development Brief to guide the
development of Silverstone Circuit. An outline planning permission was granted (Ref
11/01785/AOP) in August 2012 providing a masterplan for the development of the site. MEPC
secured a 999 year lease for the land in September 2013 and intends to build hotels and B1 and B2
space on the site. Talks with a second investor to build a Welcome Centre, Kart Track and other
track-side facilities are currently stalled.
11.16
The potential economic impacts of investment were assessed as part of the Silverstone Masterplan
Economic Impact Assessment (SQW, June 2011). This identifies the following levels of net jobs
expected to be created by the development (which spans parts of both Aylesbury Vale and South
Northamptonshire). This is based on an economic impact assessment which follows the approach
set out in the HCA Additionality Guide, including consideration of deadweight and adjustments for
leakage, displacement and multiplier effects.
Table 59: SQW Estimated Job Creation – Silverstone Masterplan
Business Park
Technology Park
Education Campus
Silverstone Square
Motorcity & Experimental Circuit
Hotels
Grandstand
Total Permanent Jobs
Construction Jobs
Total Jobs
Net Jobs – Total
Net Jobs – Aylesbury Vale
& South Northants
2,504
1,273
224
166
397
215
6
4,800
2,285
1,161
204
152
362
196
6
4,365
550 pa
5,350
4,195
Source: SQW
11.17
The build-out of the site was expected to be phased over 20 years resulting in construction jobs of
on average 550 pa over this period. The development aims to support the growth of a cluster of
business activity around motorsport and high performance engineering. Permanent job creation is
expected in motorsport/ advanced engineering as well as in specialist financial, professional, and
businesses services; tourism/ leisure; and further education.
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ARLA Aston Clinton
11.18
Planning consent was granted in 2011 to Arla Foods Ltd for development of land to the east of
College Road North in Aston Clinton, to the north of the A41. Four applications were consented.
The main application (ref. 11/00962/APP) was for a large dairy for 73,738 sq m (793,709 sq ft) of
B2 floorspace and 3,493 sq m (37,598 sq ft) of B1a floorspace, with the potential to process over 1
million litres of milk per year. The main dairy has now been developed. Outline planning permission
(ref. 11/00963/AOP) was granted in November 2011 for delivery of a Regional Distribution Centre
(also for Arla’s use) of 23,226 sq m (250,000 sq ft) of B8 floorspace on land to the north of the dairy.
11.19
Outline planning permission (11/00965/AOP) was also granted in November 2011 for delivery of up
to 41,806 sq m (449,996 sq ft) of B2/B8 distribution and manufacturing space at the north-west of
the site, which could in the medium term support a milk processing and distribution facility as part of
the firm’s longer-term growth plans. Applications for the approval of the reserved matters have not
yet been submitted. The deadline for submission is November 2016.
11.20
The jobs created will be associated with the business’ specific needs, with for instance the job
creation in the Regional Distribution Centre calculated based on a similar facility which the company
operates in the north of England. We would expect the majority of jobs to fall within the
‘manufacture of food products’ sector (SIC 10.5).
11.21
GL Hearn consider that the additional manufacturing/ distribution space will principally meet general
business needs. The additional job creation over and above the baseline forecasts results
principally from the dairy. The main diary is delivered, but we understand from AVDC is currently
operating below capacity. The Regional Distribution Centre has yet to be built out.
East-West Rail
11.22
The construction of the Western Section of East-West Rail was confirmed by Government in July
2012. This is now a committed, funded infrastructure scheme which will result in the re-introduction
of passenger and freight rail services between Bedford, Oxford, Milton Keynes and Aylesbury
through the upgrading and reconstruction of section of existing and mothballed rail track.
11.23
For Aylesbury Vale, the scheme will deliver (as a minimum):
 An hourly rail service from Aylesbury north to Milton Keynes, linking with the West Coast Main
Line and significantly improving connectivity northwards;
 A new station at Winslow providing two services per hour to Milton Keynes, Oxford, Reading and
London Paddington, as well as an hourly service to London Marylebone and Bedford.
11.24
The electrification of the line between Oxford-Winslow-Milton Keynes is currently scheduled to be
completed by March 2019 with services scheduled to begin then.
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11.25
The Atkins report East-West Rail Central Section: Conditional Outputs Statement identified that the
scheme would support delivery of 855 homes, 114,900 sq m of office space, and 45,000 sq m of
retail floorspace in Aylesbury – based on local authority-sourced data. It would also help deliver the
Furze Lane employment scheme in Winslow, which GL Hearn’s Key Employment Sites Assessment
(Sept 2013) identifies as having outline consent for 15,000 sq m (161,460 sq ft) of employment
floorspace (B1/B2/B8). This sits close to the proposed rail station. However the scale of
employment development proposed has subsequently been reduced, and the Winslow
Neighbourhood Plan allocates the site for mixed use development to include 1.5 ha for education
use, 1.5 ha for employment floorspace and provision of the railway station and associated servicing
and access (see Winslow Neighbourhood Plan, Policy 6).
11.26
GL Hearn consider that the East-West Rail scheme will improve connectivity between key towns
and employment locations. It will potentially increase commuting from Aylesbury and Winslow to
Milton Keynes, but the evidence base indicates that the long-term impact of this will be modest. It
will have some impact in enhancing Aylesbury’s connectivity helping to support economic
investment and delivery of the baseline forecasts.
11.27
Winslow’s connectivity will improve, but this we consider is likely to have a greater impact on
housing demand than businesses seeking to locate to the town (albeit that there may be some
impact). It will help to improve Aylesbury’s connectivity, providing some support in particular to the
Town’s office market. However it should be recognised that accessibility to Aylesbury, particularly in
terms of journey times to London, will remain weaker than other competing centres including High
Wycombe and Milton Keynes. This will continue to temper the scale of demand.
High Speed 2
11.28
The Hybrid Bill for the first phase of HS2 is currently before Parliament. This will construct the first
phase of the line linking London to the West Midlands. The line is proposed to run through the
Chilterns, pass immediately to the south-west of Aylesbury and continue through the Vale towards
Brackley.
11.29
No stations are proposed to be located with Aylesbury Vale (this has been considered, with HS2
concluding that whilst this would support commuting trips to London the benefits would be negated
by displacement of longer-distance potential passengers where there are greater journey time
savings and fares). However construction of a depot to the north of Aylesbury at Calvert is
proposed.
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11.30
A number of reports have considered the economic impacts of the proposals. Considering reports
by KPMG and Oxford Economics together, it is estimated that there would be an annual loss of
between £14 – 96 million in GDP across Buckinghamshire.
Implications – Parameters for Economic Growth
11.31
The complexity of influences on future economic growth mean that it is difficult to precisely calculate
or predict future economic performance. The investment projects will in part help to support delivery
of forecast growth in the Synthesis Baseline Scenarios. Taking account of the potential influence of
planned investment projects as identified above, GL Hearn would consider that it would be
reasonable to assume that there is some additional employment generation. To assess this, GL
Hearn has compared the forecast job creation with the Synthesis Baseline Scenario and sought to
estimate the net impact over and above this.
11.32
We have developed an Expected Growth Scenario recognising the specific local drivers which exist
which could support enhanced employment generation, over and above the Synthesis Baseline
Scenario, in the future. This Scenario identifies a net additional 3,400 jobs over and above the
Synthesis Baseline, which will likely be created as a result of the identified investment projects
considered above. This represents a 22% uplift on the baseline figure.
11.33
We therefore consider that for the purposes of considering future housing need, the following core
scenarios for employment growth should be considered:
 Synthesis Baseline Scenario – 15,600 net additional jobs between 2013-33;
 Expected Growth Scenario – 19,000 net additional jobs between 2013-33.
11.34
The Synthesis Baseline Scenario would support annual growth of 0.8% pa in employment. The
Expected Growth Scenario would support growth of 1.0% pa. The growth trajectories are shown in
Figure 92.
11.35
The Expected Growth Scenario is principally based on committed investment projects. We consider
that this represents a realistic scenario taking account of local circumstances for future economic
performance of the District.
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Employment (000s)
Scenarios for Employment Growth - Aylesbury Vale, 2013-33
110.0
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
Synthesis Forecast
Expected Growth Scenario
Source: GL Hearn
Implications
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
Baseline econometric forecasts indicate that the employment in Aylesbury Vale could grow
by between 0.8 – 1.1% per year over the 2013-33 period. This equates to between 12,900 –
18,400 net additional jobs.

A Synthesis Baseline Forecast has been developed which is based on the average growth
by sector forecast by Experian, Cambridge Econometrics and Oxford Economics. This sees
growth of 15,600 jobs over the 2013-33 period.

However there are a number of additional drivers, which have not influenced past trends,
which could support higher employment growth. These include infrastructure investment,
such as East West Rail and High Speed 2, as well as delivery of the ALRA Dairy at Aston
Clinton and Silverstone Masterplan. Taking these into account, an Expected Growth
Scenario has been developed. This sees employment growth of 1.0% per annum with a net
increase in employment of 19,000 forecast over the 2013-33 period.
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NEED FOR EMPLOYMENT LAND
12.1
In this section we consider demand for employment land and floorspace over the plan period from
2013-33. The section considers the need for employment land in the B1, B2 and B8 use classes.
The analysis is of ‘demand’ for employment land and therefore does not take account of any
supply-side factors such as existing employment land allocations or commitments.
12.2
When considering the scale of future needs the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG, 2014) requires
consideration of quantitative and qualitative need. This entails estimating the scale of future needs
broken down by different market segments, such as different B use classes. The PPG recommends
the use of a number of different techniques to estimate future employment land requirements,
namely assessments based on :
 Labour Demand;
 Labour Supply; and
 Past Take-Up.
12.3
AVDC has not yet determined what level of housing provision it is seeking to plan for. For the
purposes of the HEDNA Report, this section therefore focuses on labour demand and past take-up.
12.4
A labour demand scenario has been developed based on econometric forecasts supplied by
Cambridge Econometrics, Oxford Economics’ EEFM, and Experian forecasts. We have combined
these forecasts to create a Synthesis forecast.
12.5
Projections of past take-up have been based on Aylesbury Vale District Council data on past
completions of B-class employment floorspace / land.
12.6
There are relative benefits of each approach. Econometric forecasts take account of differences in
expected economic performance moving forward relative to the past, overall in regard to the
sectoral composition of growth. However a detailed model is required to relate net forecasts to use
classes and to estimate gross floorspace and land requirements.
12.7
In contrast, past take-up is based on actual delivery of employment development; but does not take
account of the implications of growth in labour supply associated with housing growth nor any
differences in economic performance relative to the past. It is also potentially influenced by past
land supply policies.
12.8
The quantitative evidence (based on the above three scenarios) is supplemented by the wider
analysis of market and economic dynamics.
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Labour Demand Scenario
12.9
The starting point for considering employment land requirements is analysis of employment
forecasts. This study has considered three forecasts (as described in the previous section):
 Cambridge Econometrics (CE) LEFM Forecasts, Summer 2014;
 Oxford Economics’ (OE) East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM) forecasts, Spring 2015;
and
 Experian Quarterly UK Local Market Forecasts, Spring 2015.
12.10
As discussed in the previous section we have taken an average of the three forecasts to create a
Synthesis forecast.
12.11
Figure 93 shows the forecast for total employment for the three forecasts and the Synthesis
forecast over the period to 2033.
Forecast Total Employment, 1981-2033
110.0
Employment (000s)
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
40.0
CE
EEFM
Experian
Synthesis
Source: CE / EEFM / GL Hearn
12.12
The forecasts assume that ‘historical relationships hold true’ between the performance of sectors
within the District and South East or UK (for whichever the relationship is stronger). They do not
take account of land supply or policy intervention in so far as the impact of this may different from
that in the past.
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Synthesis Scenario
12.13
To account for the differences between the three forecasts, and to mitigate their discrepancies, GL
Hearn has created a Synthesis Baseline Forecast Scenario based on the average of the three
forecasts. GL Hearn has then converted forecasts for total employment by sector into forecasts for
Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) employment by sector through analysis of the proportion of full- and
part-time jobs by sector in Aylesbury Vale. The Synthesis model thus forecasts a net increase of
15,600 FTE jobs in the Vale over the period 2013 to 2033.
12.14
Looking at these job forecasts in more detail we can see that there is expected to be considerable
growth in the following sectors over the plan period:
 Business Support Services – 2,800 FTE jobs;
 Construction – 2,500 FTE jobs;
 Professional Services – 2,500 FTE jobs;
 Wholesale – 1,500 FTE jobs;
 Health and Care – 1,400 FTE jobs;
12.15
Numerous sectors have net growth of under 1,000 FTE jobs over the period. These are shown in
the figure below.
Synthesis Baseline Forecasts – Net FTE Jobs Growth in Aylesbury Vale (2013 –
2033)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Business services
Construction
Professional services
Wholesale
Health & care
Retail
Real estate
Education
Other services
Arts & entertainment
Employment activities
Accommodation & food services
Computer related activity
Finance
Waste & remediation
Utilities
Manufacturing - chemicals only
Publishing & broadcasting
Warehouse and Postal
Manufacturing - pharmaceuticals
Telecoms
Research & development
Source: Synthesis Model
12.16
Conversely there is expected to be some losses (in FTE jobs) in the some sectors, most notably the
manufacturing sectors where there are forecast 500 job losses. Looking at the manufacturing sector
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in more detail, the forecast predicts FTE job losses across all manufacturing sectors with the
exception of chemicals and pharmaceuticals manufacturing which are forecasts small growth (less
than 50 FTE jobs). Notable losses are forecast in the following manufacturing sub-sectors:
 Manufacture of Transport Equipment – 200 FTE job losses;
 General Manufacturing – 200 FTE job losses;
 Manufacture of Food, Drink, and Tobacco – 100 FTE job losses.
12.17
The Synthesis Baseline Forecasts also forecasts losses in the Public Administration and Defence
sector (300 FTE losses) and the Land, Water, and Air Transportation sector (200 FTE losses).
Translating Sectors to Use Classes
12.18
GLH has considered the proportion of employment in each of these sectors which is likely to take
place in B Class premises: Office or R&D floorspace (Use Classes B1a and B1b), light industrial
floorspace (Use Classes B1c), general industrial floorspace (Use Class B2), and warehouse /
distribution floorspace (Use Class B8). We have calibrated our standard model which relates
sectors and use classes for the Aylesbury Vale economy through interrogation of the composition of
employment in key sectors at 4-digit SIC level. This is used to derive the following forecasts of net
growth in FTE employment by use class over the plan period:
Table 60: Forecast FTE Job Growth by B-Class Sector, 2013-33
2013-18
2018-23
2023-28
2028-33
2013-33
Total
1,931
1,139
935
897
4,903
B1c
199
79
34
43
354
B2
143
-4
-68
-53
17
B8
713
397
284
261
1,656
2,986
1,610
1,186
1,148
6,930
B1a/b
Total B Class
Source: GL Hearn
12.19
To these figures we have applied standard employment densities taking account of the HCA
Employment Densities Guide: 2nd Edition (Drivers Jonas Deloitte, 2010). We have converted figures
to provide employment densities for gross external floor areas on the following basis:
 Office (B1a and B1b): an average of 14 sq m GEA per employee based on a blend between
business park, serviced office and general office floorspace and assuming that the gross
external area of buildings is on average 20% higher than the net internal area;
 Light Industrial (B1c): an average of 49 sq m GEA per employee, assuming that the gross
external area of buildings is on average 5% higher than the net internal area;
 General Industrial (B2): an average of 38 sq m GEA per employee, assuming that the gross
external area of buildings is on average 5% higher than the gross internal area;
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 Warehouse/ Distribution (B8): an average of 70 sq m GEA per employee. This is in line with the
average of the range of employment densities for B8 activities.
12.20
In calculating future requirements, GL Hearn has included a 10% allowance for vacant floorspace.
This is considered sensible to support a level of turnover within a properly functioning local market.
This is applied where there is a positive requirement for new floorspace.
12.21
Applying these employment densities to the forecasts of net growth in jobs in B-class activities and
include an allowance for vacant space, we can derive forecasts for net changes in employment
floorspace. This forecasts a net requirement for an additional 225,600 sq m of floorspace in B-class
uses over the 2013-33 plan period. This comprises:
 A net requirement for an additional 77,700 sq m of office and R&D (B1a and B1b) floorspace;
 A net requirement for an additional 19,200 sq m of light industrial (B1c) floorspace;
 A net requirement for an additional 1,200 sq m of general industrial (B2) floorspace; and
 A net requirement for an additional 127,500 sq m of warehouse / distribution (B8) floorspace.
Synthesis Forecast – Net Changes in Employment Floorspace by Use Class in
Aylesbury Vale, 2013-33
140,000
120,000
100,000
2028-33
80,000
2023-28
60,000
2018-23
40,000
2013-18
20,000
B1a/b
B1c
B2
B8
-20,000
Source: GL Hearn
12.22
These are net changes and do not take account of replacement demand, such as from existing
companies requiring upgraded floorspace. GL Hearn consider that it would be appropriate to
include
12.23
To calculate the land requirements to support these net changes, we have applied the following plot
ratios:
 0.3 for B1a/b office and R&D uses;
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 0.4 for B1c and B2 industrial uses; and
 0.5 for B8 warehouse / distribution floorspace.
12.24
This generates the following requirement for net additional land to support the Synthesis
employment growth forecast:
Table 61: Synthesis Forecast – Net Land Requirements to Support Forecast Employment
Growth, 2013-33
Net Land Requirement (Hectares)
B1a/b: Office & R&D
26
B1c Light Industrial
5
B2 General Industrial
0.3
B8: Warehouse/ Distribution
26
Total B-Class Uses
57
Source: GL Hearn
Calculating the Employment Land Requirement
12.25
To provide an indication of the potential gross need for employment land to support the labour
demand scenarios it is appropriate to consider potential losses of employment floorspace and
provide some margin within the supply of land to provide a choice of sites to ensure a suitable level
of flexibility to meet the varied needs of occupiers.
12.26
In addition we consider that it would be prudent to include a ‘margin’ to provide for some flexibility,
recognising:
 The potential error margin associated with the forecasting process;
 To provide a choice of sites to facilitate competition in the property market;
 To provide flexibility to allow for any delays in individual sites coming forward.
12.27
We consider that it would be appropriate to make provision for a 5-year ‘margin’ based on past
employment land take-up. Over the last 15 year period (2000-14) completions have averaged 7.1
hectares (gross) per annum. This equates to a 5-year margin of 35.5ha.
12.28
To calculate an overall employment land requirement we add the figures required to account for
losses and to provide a suitable margin to the figures of the Synthesis Forecast.
12.29
The overall employment land requirement for the Synthesis labour demand scenario is shown in
Table 61 overleaf. The Synthesis Forecast results in a need for 91.6 ha of employment land in the
District from 2013-33. This is based on past trends in employment growth and doesn’t include
provision for the planned development of the Expected Growth Scenario.
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12.30
Development at Silverstone and the dairy development at ARLA should be considered as additional
to the figure of the Synthesis Forecast. In addition, the East/West Rail development is likely to come
forward in the plan period which will likely have some impact to office growth in the District over and
above historic trends. We consider that an additional 5 – 10 ha of employment land development
could be supported, particularly through support provided to office market potential. The range
reflects the potential variance both in respect of economic impact, and of development densities.
Table 62: Employment Land Requirement (ha) – Labour Demand Scenario
Required to meet the needs of the Synthesis Forecast
5 year margin
Employment Land Requirement
Additional allowance for East/West Rail
Overall Employment Land Requirement
12.31
Hectares
57
35.5
92.5
5 – 10
97 - 102 ha
The Synthesis model forecast an overall employment land requirement of around 97 - 102 hectares
over the period 201-33. By comparison the CE forecast results in a requirement of around 75 - 80
hectares of employment land; the EEFM forecast results in a requirement of around 100 - 105
hectares of employment land; and the Experian forecast results in a requirement of around 115 120 hectares of employment land.
12.32
This forecast is based principally on meeting employment needs of the District, based on past
trends. It does not take account of any shortfall in provision in adjoining areas which might result in
a need for provision of supply in the Vale.
Trend Based Projections
12.33
Next we consider an alternative forecast approach, based on projecting forward past gross
completions of employment floorspace in Aylesbury Vale, provided by Aylesbury Vale District
Council. We have considered a 5 year, 10 year, and 15 year trend. These three trends consider
employment growth over 3 different periods of the economic cycle.
12.34
The 5 year trend takes into account completions over the period 2010 to 2014 (inclusive). This
period covers a period of economic recovery following the credit crunch in 2007 when there was
relatively slow growth of a recovering economy.
12.35
The 10 year trend covers the period 2005 to 2014. This period covers both the pre- and postrecession economic climate.
12.36
The 15 year trend covers the period 2000 to 2014, with the 2007 crash almost perfectly bisecting
the period. This includes the stronger growth experienced in the early 2000s, as well as the postrecession period. We consider that the 15 year trend based projection is more representative of a
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complete economic cycle and therefore may represent a more realistic model of growth going
forward.
12.37
Table 63 below shows the total net, gross, and loss of employment floorspace delivered since 2000
split into 5 year bands. The 2000-2005 and 2005-2010 bands measure from March to April each
year. The 2010-2014 band covers whole years. Due to inconsistencies with how the data has
historically been recorded we are unable to split out the B1a, b, and c uses. Also, the historic
records have recorded a considerable quantum of floorspace as general employment, shown in the
table below as B1/B2/B8.
Table 63: Employment Floorspace Completions (sq m), 2000-14
2000-2005
B1
12.38
2005-2010
2010-2014
Net
Gross
Loss
Net
Gross
Loss
Net
Gross
Loss
47,251
56,301
9,050
- 6,081
34,723
40,804
3,521
4,810
1,289
26,475
67,947
81,167
83,365
2,198
20,990
27,151
774
3,356
2,582
B2
43,368
50,855
7,487
B8
B1/B2/B
8
Total
33,806
43,151
9,345
41,472
- 6,161
15,939
15,939
-
66,249
68,126
1,877
-
-
-
140,364
166,246
25,882
12,535
150,314
137,779
85,462
91,531
6,069
Over the past 15 years Aylesbury Vale saw the strongest rate of employment floorspace delivery in
the pre-recession boom years captured above in the 2000-2005 band. This period saw high levels
of (gross) delivery and relatively low losses. During the following 5 years, which includes the 2007
crash, the rate of delivery dropped slightly, but this period saw very large losses of employment
land to alternative uses. This resulted in a small overall net delivery of employment floorspace.
Gross delivery over the most recent 5 year period has been comparatively low as the effects of the
recession were realised. Losses over this period have also been low counterbalancing low delivery
somewhat.
12.39
It should be noted that a large proportion of the completed employment floorspace over the last 5
years was due to development at the Arla Dairy site in Aston Clinton which has delivered 81,300 sq
m of new B2 floorspace and 3,000 sq m of new B1 office floorspace. This represents 92% of all
employment floorspace completed over this period. Excluding this development from the
completions figures drastically reduces the quantum of employment floorspace delivered over the
last 5 years to 7,000 sq m (gross) and a net increase of just 900 sq m.
12.40
We have calculated the amount of land needed to support employment growth should the delivery
rate of new employment space seen in the Vale over the past five years continue into the future. To
do this we have used the following plot ratio assumptions:
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 0.3 for B1a/b office and R&D uses;
 0.4 for B1c and B2 industrial uses; and
 0.5 for B8 warehouse / distribution floorspace.
12.41
Where the specific B1 sub-class has not been specified we have applied the office plot ratio of 0.3.
For general employment B1/B2/B8 we have applied an average of the three plot ratios of 0.4.
12.42
The employment land required to deliver a similar quantum of development seen over the past 5
year, 10 year, and 15 year periods are shown in the tables below.
12.43
The 5 year trend suggests that in order to sustain the recent level of growth in the Vale, a net total
of 4.3 ha of employment land would be required per annum. However to account for future losses, a
gross of 4.6 ha of employment land would be required.
Table 64: 5 Year Trend – Employment Land Delivery (ha)
Use
Class
B1
B1a,b
B1c
B2
B8
B1/B2/B8
Tot
12.44
Net
Total
0.0
1.2
0.0
20.3
0.2
0.0
21.6
Annual
0.0
0.2
0.0
4.1
0.0
0.0
4.3
Total
0.0
1.4
0.1
20.8
0.7
0.0
23.1
Gross
Annual
0.0
0.3
0.0
4.2
0.1
0.0
4.6
Total
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
-1.4
Loss
Annual
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.3
The 10 year trend reflects the higher rate of delivery and losses over the 2005-2010 period and
therefore suggests a gross requirement of 6.2 ha of employment land per annum.
Table 65: 10 Year Trend – Employment Land Delivery (ha)
Use
Class
B1
B1a,b
B1c
B2
B8
B1/B2/B8
Tot
12.45
Net
Total
-2.0
1.2
0.0
9.9
-1.0
16.6
24.6
Annual
-0.2
0.1
0.0
1.0
-0.1
1.7
2.5
Gross
Total
Annual
11.6
1.2
1.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
27.5
2.7
4.9
0.5
17.0
1.7
62.5
6.2
Loss
Total
-13.6
-0.2
-0.1
-17.5
-5.9
-0.5
-37.9
Annual
-1.4
0.0
0.0
-1.8
-0.6
0.0
-3.8
The 15 year trend reflects the higher rate of delivery seen pre-recession and therefore suggests a
gross requirement of 7.1 ha of employment land per annum.
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Table 66: 15 Year Trend – Employment Land Delivery (ha)
Use
Class
B1
B1a,b
B1c
B2
B8
B1/B2/B8
Tot
12.46
Net
Total
13.7
1.2
0.0
20.8
5.7
20.5
61.9
Annual
0.9
0.1
0.0
1.4
0.4
1.4
4.1
Total
30.3
1.4
0.1
40.2
13.5
21.0
106.6
Gross
Annual
2.0
0.1
0.0
2.7
0.9
1.4
7.1
Loss
Total
-16.6
-0.2
-0.1
-19.4
-7.8
-0.5
-44.7
Annual
-1.1
0.0
0.0
-1.3
-0.5
0.0
-3.0
By scaling up the gross annual requirement from each of the trends we can calculate the
requirement for employment land over the twenty year plan period. This is shown in the table below.
The gross figures are used to provide an indication of future levels of development.
Table 67: Trend Based Requirement (ha) for 20 Year Plan Period, 2013-33
Use Class
B1
B1a,b
B1c
B2
B8
B1/B2/B8
Tot
12.47
5 year Trend
0
6
1
83
3
0
10 Year Trend
23
3
0
55
10
34
15 Year Trend
40
2
0
54
18
28
92
125
142
The 5 year trend suggests a requirement for 92 ha of new employment land will be required over
the plan period. However, this figure reflects the low levels of employment land delivery seen
across the 5 year period, and therefore this models forwards the recessionary environment of this
period. We would therefore treat this figure with caution.
12.48
The 10 year trend suggests a requirement for 125 ha of new employment land will be required over
the plan period. The 15 year trend suggests a requirement for 142 ha of new employment land.
12.49
It should be borne in mind that gross forecasts of past completions will include floorspace
developed through redevelopment of existing employment land, or intensification on existing sites. It
is thus reasonable to consider that overall employment land needs could be slightly lower than
shown in these forecasts.
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Implications
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
The econometric forecasts indicate a gross need for between 92 – 102 hectares of
employment land in Aylesbury Vale over the period 2013-33. A need for 92 hectares is
shown in the Synthesis Baseline Forecast; with a need for between 97-102 hectares in the
Committed Growth Forecasts.

Past trends suggest a need for between 92 – 125 hectares of employment land (based on
gross completions). This is likely to include some development on existing employment
sites.

GL Hearn consider that it would be appropriate to make provision for around 100 hectares
of employment land based on the evidence available to meet the Vale’s own development
needs. This figure excludes any additional floorspace relating to the planned development
at Silverstone Circuit and dairy-related development at Arla. It may also be necessary to
provide additional provision to meet unmet needs from other local authorities.

This need is for general employment land which is available to meet the needs of a range
of businesses. Sites which are restricted to meeting needs from specific businesses or
sectors could arguably be treated separately in considering the supply/demand balance.

The evidence herein does not suggest that labour supply will constrain economic growth
potential. However the balance between employment land and housing provision should
be reviewed when drawing together evidence (including in respect of unmet needs) as part
of the plan-making process.

The need identified does not include provision for relocation of businesses from any
employment sites which may be identified for redevelopment. Should the Vale of
Aylesbury Local Plan identify sites for redevelopment which would require relocation of
current active businesses, it may be necessary to include additional provision of
employment land to support relocations.
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RELATING EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TO HOUSING NEED
13.1
The PPG sets out that employment trends should be taken into account. It outlines that:
‘Plan makers should make an assessment of the likely growth in job numbers based on past
trends and/or economic forecasts as appropriate and also having regard to the growth of the
working age population in the housing market area’
‘Where the supply of working age population that is economically active (labour force supply)
is less than the projected job growth, this could result in unsustainable commuting patterns
(depending on public transport accessibility or other sustainable options such as walking or
cycling) and could reduce the resilience of local businesses. In such circumstances, plan
makers will need to consider how the location of new housing or infrastructure development
could help address these problems’ [ID.2a-18]
13.2
Through this report we have considered a number of baseline econometric forecasts, from the three
main economic forecasting houses. These expect growth in employment ranging from 12,900 to
18,400 jobs over the 2013-33 period. This represents growth in employment of between 15% – 22%.
13.3
We have drawn these forecasts together to provide a Synthesis Baseline Forecast for employment
growth, which takes the average between growth expected by broad sector from the Cambridge
Econometrics, EEFM and Experian Forecasts. This represents a reasonable, policy-off,
assessment of employment growth. It sees growth in employment of 15,800 (18%) over the 201333 period.
13.4
A further Committed Growth Scenario has then been developed based considering the impact of
planned infrastructure investment and key investment projects which are considered to result in
some additional employment growth over and above that in the Synthesis Baseline Scenario.
13.5
As well as the scale of growth in employment, the relationship between employment growth and
housing need is influenced by what proportion of people work (overall and in different age groups),
the potential for some people to hold down more than one job, and (in spatial terms) commuting
patterns which influence the relationship between where people work and live. In relating
employment growth and housing need, we need to consider these issues.
13.6
We have assessed commuting patterns to understand whether or not the growth in the working
population might be expected to be higher (or lower) than the expected growth in employment in the
two projections. To study, this we have looked at the relationship between the number of residents
in employment and the number of people who work in the area. Information about this is shown in
Table 68, taken from the 2011 Census.
13.7
The data shows that there are around 20% more people who live in the District (and are working)
than currently work in the area. Aylesbury Vale therefore sees a level of net out-commuting. This
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essentially means that there would be expected to be a greater increase in working residents for a
given number of jobs.
Table 68: Commuting Patterns in Aylesbury Vale, 2011
Persons
Live and work in District
Home workers
No fixed workplace
Out-commute
In-commute
Work offshore or abroad
Total working in District
Total living in District (and working)
Commuting ratio
35,881
12,395
7,718
35,025
19,872
232
75,866
91,251
1.20
Source: 2011 Census
13.8
As well as commuting patterns, it is also important to recognise that a number of people may have
more than one job (double jobbing).
13.9
This can be calculated as the number of people working in each Borough divided by the number of
jobs. Data from the Annual Population Survey (available on the NOMIS website) suggests that
around 4.7% of workers have a second job (data averaged from data for the 2004-14 period to
recognise relatively high error margins associated with data for individual years). This gives a
double jobbing ratio of 0.953 (i.e. the number of jobs can be discounted by 4.7% to estimate the
required change in the workforce).
13.10
Hence to work out the change in the resident workforce required to match the forecast number of
jobs we can multiply the commuting ratio by the amount of double jobbing and in turn multiply this
by the number of jobs – this is shown in the table below.
Table 69: Baseline Assumptions regarding Growth in Jobs and Residents in Employment
Change in jobs
Synthesis Baseline
15,800
Forecast
Committed Growth Forecast
19,000
Source: EEFM, Cambridge Econometrics and 2011 Census
13.11
1.15
Change in resident
workforce
18,104
1.15
21,850
Adjustment factor
Although the past few years have seen an increase in unemployment there have generally been
increases in the proportion of people who are economically active (particularly for females and
people aged over 50). In the future we may see a continuation of these trends – particularly in
relation to people working longer (partly linked to pensionable ages) and have modelled for there to
be some increase in employment rates as we move through to 2033.
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13.12
Table 70 below shows the age/sex specific rates assumed in the analysis. These have been based
on consideration of a range of different forecasting houses forecasts and also take account of the
2011 Census and trends over the period since 2001. It should be stressed that these figures reflect
what we would consider to be a reasonable set of assumptions although there would be a case for
alternatives (both in an upwards and downwards direction). In particular we would note that the
most recent Experian and EEFM models appear to be forecasting much stronger changes to
employment rates than those assumed in this report.
Table 70: Employment Rates by Age and Sex – Aylesbury Vale
Sex
Male
Female
13.13
Year
2013
2033
2013
2033
Aged 16 to
24
55.9%
55.9%
60.4%
60.4%
Aged 25 to
34
88.1%
88.3%
80.5%
85.5%
Aged 35 to
49
92.1%
93.0%
83.0%
87.8%
Aged 50 to
64
82.1%
86.1%
70.4%
78.9%
Aged 65
and over
20.9%
22.1%
11.0%
12.7%
Figure 96 shows how the overall employment rate in Aylesbury Vale is expected to change over
time, a past trend analysis from the Annual Population Survey (APS) back to 2004 has also been
shown although some caution should be used in comparing figures given that the sources are
different (and the APS suffers from quite large error margins due to being survey-based). The
employment rate is based on the number of people in employment divided by the population aged
16 and over. The analysis shows in the past that the rate has been variable with a slight downward
trend – moving forward, the employment rate is expected to decline slightly, following a period of
little change to 2021 (linked to reductions in unemployment). The decline in the rate in the longerterm is strongly linked to the demographic profile of the population (i.e. ageing).
13.14
The rates shown in the figure below are derived from the 2012-based SNPP and it should be noted
that these change very slightly with different assumptions about population growth.
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Past and Projected Changes in the Employment Rate – Aylesbury Vale
Employment rate (population aged 16+)
72%
70%
68%
66%
64%
62%
60%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
58%
Source: Derived from Annual Population Survey and demographic projections
13.15
The outputs from the economic based projections are shown in Table 71. To support delivery of the
Synthesis Baseline Forecasts would require 1192 dwellings per annum. The Committed Growth
Forecasts would require 1,326 dwellings per annum. In both cases these figures include the
affordability adjustments.
Table 71: Housing Provision necessary to support Economic Growth Scenarios
Households 2013
Households 2033
Change in households
Per annum
Dwellings (per annum)
13.16
Synthesis Baseline
Forecast
Committed Growth
Forecast
72080
95042
22961
1148
1192
72080
97620
25539
1277
1326
The economic forecasts result in a higher level of housing need than those shown based on
demographic trends. This suggests that economic performance moving forward, taking account of
changes in the age structure of the population, could result in a higher level of net in-migration to
the District. They suggests that housing need should be adjusted modestly upwards to support
economic growth in the District.
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Implications
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
The relationship between employment growth and housing need is sensitive to changes in
employment rates, commuting and the degree to which some people may hold down
more than one job. This report seeks to make reasonable assumptions on these issues,
based on evidence.

The analysis indicates that 1192 homes per annum would be required (as an average
between 2013-33) to support the Synthesis Baseline Forecast. The Committed Growth
Scenario would require 1326 homes per annum. These figures include adjustments to
household formation for younger households to improve affordability.

The additional housing need arising from economic growth cannot be considered entirely
separately from provision for any unmet needs from other areas, as meeting unmet needs
in Aylesbury Vale would support population and workforce growth within the District.
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CONCLUSIONS
14.1
In this final section of the report we draw the analysis together to consider the overall need for
housing and employment land, and the need for different types of housing and housing needs of
particular groups in the population.
Objectively-Assessed Housing Need
14.2
This report has considered housing need following the approach set out in the National Planning
Policy Framework (NPPF) and Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). It considers the full objectivelyassessed need (OAN) for housing.
14.3
Following the approach in the PPG, the starting point for assessing need has been demographic
projections. These reflect what has happened in the past – both in terms of the levels of migration
and household formation rates (the key driving factors in trend-based demographic projections).
The PPG therefore sets out a number of other factors which need to be considered in assessing
whether it would be appropriate to increase the identified housing need – either to enhance
affordable housing delivery, to respond to market signals which point to poor affordability or a
supply-demand imbalance, or to support expected economic growth. In drawing conclusions on
housing need, we work through this process.
Initial Demographic Projections
14.4
The latest Government official household projections at the time of writing of this report are the
2012-based Household Projections, published by Government in February 2015. These are based
on the 2012-based Sub-National Population Projections (SNPP) and the latest information and
government projections regarding household formation.
14.5
The 2012-based SNPP are considered to represent a robust starting point projection for population
growth in Aylesbury Vale. These project 19.8% growth in the District’s population between 2013-33.
If the household formation rates in the 2012-based Household Projections are applied to this, a
need for 971 homes per year is shown. This provides the ‘starting point’ estimate of housing need.
14.6
There is however some evidence that net out-migration from London to Aylesbury Vale fell during
the recession. As the economy recovers, out-migration from London to Aylesbury Vale could also
recover back towards pre-recession levels. A sensitivity analysis considering the implications of this
has been modelled, which identifies a need for around 1000 homes per annum.
14.7
Further sensitivity testing around demographic-based factors has also been undertaken,
considering alternative scenarios for projecting migration and household formation rates. Alternative
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migration scenarios are lower than the core scenario based on the latest official projections. They
show a need for housing ranging between 998 – 923 homes per annum, with the range reflecting
the approach taken to considering Unattributable Population Change (UPC). These figures are
based on migration trends over the last 12 years (2001-13) and use the headship rates in the 2012based Household Projections. The evidence however suggests that UPC could well relate to issues
of the accuracy of the 2001 and/or 2011 Censuses.
14.8
The additional projections developed are however not dynamic projections which take account of
the latest data and how demographic dynamics can be expected to change over time. Furthermore
with adjustments which ONS has made to the its methodology for estimating migration, and the
approach taken by ONS to in its 2012-based SNPP and justification for this, GL Hearn can see no
reason for adopting one of these alternative scenarios – from a technical perspective – in
preference to the 2012-based SNPP. Indeed the Planning Practice Guidance encourages use of
the official projections as the starting point as they are based on nationally consistent assumptions.
We can see no sound technical reasons for deviating from these as a basis for projecting future
population growth in Aylesbury Vale.
14.9
A sensitivity analysis around headship rates has also been undertaken. The headship rates in the
2012-based Household Projections are slightly more positive for Aylesbury Vale than those in the
2011-based Interim Household Projections (in that they result in slightly stronger household growth
for a given population). Applying the household formation rates to the 2008-based Household
Projections to the projected population growth however results in a higher housing need – for 1063
dwellings per annum. This is 9.5% higher than in the 2012-based Household Projections.
14.10
A range of academic research studies have highlighted that there has been some deviation away
from household formation rates assumed in the 2008-based projections, particularly amongst
younger age groups. This is attributed in part to affordability and market factors (which have
supressed household formation) and partly to international migration and different household
structures in new migrant communities.
14.11
Government in the Methodological Report accompanying the 2012-based Household Projections
clearly recognises that the 2008-based Projections were overestimating the rate of household
formation. It is thus not appropriate to adopt the headship rates in now superseded official
projections.
14.12
Overall, taking account of the balance of factors, GL Hearn would consider a demographic-based
assessment to show a need for around 1,000 homes per annum. This recognises that there are
potentially modest upward pressures to the official household projections in respect of household
formation amongst younger households and/or higher potential net out-migration from London.
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Housing Affordability
14.13
The PPG sets out that consideration should be given as to the relationship between the
demographically-based housing need and the need for affordable housing; and whether market
signals point to a worsening level of affordability of housing and whether this provides a basis for a
‘reasonable’ adjustment to planned housing provision in order to improve affordability.
14.14
This report identifies that, in net terms, 412 households per annum who would require support in
meeting their housing needs. These households are eligible for affordable housing.
14.15
Currently around 300 such households per year find accommodation within the Private Rented
Sector, supported by Local Housing Allowance. However the sector does not provide security of
tenure and changes to LHA may reduce the willingness of landlords to take on households in
housing need.
14.16
The Planning Practice Guidance identifies that the affordable housing need should be considered in
the context of its likely delivery as a proportion of mixed market and affordable housing
developments. An increase in total housing figures included in the local plan should be considered
where it could help deliver the required number of affordable homes. With 35% affordable housing
delivery, 350 affordable homes would be delivered if 1000 homes per annum were built, in line with
the demographic projections.
14.17
The affordable housing evidence therefore provides some basis for considering higher levels of
overall housing provision within the Vale of Aylesbury Local Plan. However it should be borne in
mind that some households in affordable housing need do not require additional homes, but require
a different type of home – such as one which is larger, or in a different tenure.
14.18
Turning to the evidence from market signals, house prices in Aylesbury Vale are on average just
below the average across Buckinghamshire, but above those in Milton Keynes. This is the case
across dwelling types. In the pre-recession period prices grew in line with sub-regional and regional
trends. They have been relatively stable since 2010.
14.19
House prices in Aylesbury Vale are 8.11 (lower quartile) and 8.35 (median) above annual income.
Affordability trends reflect house price levels with the District, with a lower affordability ratio than the
average of the Buckingham authorities, but higher than Milton Keynes. Affordability in Aylesbury
Vale is notably more severe than the national average, as is the case across the Greater South
East.
14.20
Housing delivery in Aylesbury Vale has been similar to that in other Buckinghamshire authorities,
with stronger relative delivery in recent years. Housing delivery has been maintained through the
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recession in contrast to many other areas, but has fallen below targets in some years. Overall there
has been a 12% increase in the dwelling stock since 2001 which is a greater increase than any of
the other Buckinghamshire authorities except Milton Keynes.
14.21
The trend between 2001-11 was of decreasing numbers of homeowners in Aylesbury Vale (a 4.1
percentage point fall) with a corresponding growth in the Private Rented Sector. This is a trend
which has been seen nationally. While there has been a corresponding long term increase in the
number of people occupying private rented properties, Aylesbury Vale has also seen a long term
increase in the number of homeowners owning their property outright. This may be influenced by
households’ access to mortgage finance, and the sales evidence in particular shows a notable
reduction (and limited subsequent recovery) in sales of market housing post 2008. The 2011
Census points to a moderate increase in overcrowded and shared households, but at a lower level
than has occurred at the regional and national level.
14.22
The analysis of market signals points to a combination of the increasing house prices and declining
affordability over the 2001-11 decade. However the situation in Aylesbury Vale has not been worse
than across similar areas or the wider HMA.
14.23
The demographic analysis indicates that levels of household formation, particularly for younger
households, has fallen. Drawing together the evidence, GL Hearn consider that it would therefore
be appropriate to consider an adjustment to the overall assessment of housing need to improve
affordability over time in line with the approach outlined in the Practice Guidance.
14.24
Household formation rates have therefore been adjusted to support an improvement in affordability
for younger households. The modelling approach starts with 2011-based data and projects forward
by returning household formation rates back to 2001 levels.
14.25
This adjustment results in an increase in the assessed housing need of 113 dwellings per annum
(11%) over the demographic-led projections. It results in an assessed need for 1,112 homes per
annum. This adjustment seeks to contribute to improving housing affordability, and to enhancing the
delivery of affordable housing.
Overlaying Employment Trends
14.26
Historically Aylesbury Vale’s economy has performed relatively well, with growth in employment
similar to that seen across the wider South East region. The District has a strong representation of
employment in agriculture, public administration and business support activities. Professional and
business services have however driven employment growth in the District over the last decade.
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14.27
This report has considered potential future economic performance as well as commercial property
market dynamics. Three separate forecasts – from each of the main forecasting houses – have
been considered.
14.28
The report has considered potential future economic performance as well as commercial property
market dynamics. Three separate forecasts – from each of the main forecasting houses
(Cambridge Econometrics, Oxford Economics and Experian) – have been considered. These
forecast employment growth of 12,900, 15,500 and 18,400 jobs respectively between 2013-33 in
Aylesbury Vale. The key differences between the three forecasts relate in particular to expectations
about how various sectors might perform.
14.29
Neither forecast is inherently ‘better.’ For the purposes of providing a baseline/ trend-based
assessment future economic performance, GL Hearn considers that it would be sensible to take the
average of the three forecasts on a sector basis to provide a Synthesis Forecast. A Synthesis
Baseline Forecast sees net growth of 15,600 jobs between 2013-33 in the District.
14.30
This Synthesis Forecast represents expected growth in employment of 0.8% per annum. This is
consistent with past trends (albeit that the precise growth rate varies depending on what period is
studied and dataset used).
14.31
Provision of 1192 homes per annum is modelled as being required to support this (including
adjustments to improve affordability). The exact relationship between growth in jobs and housing
need will be sensitive to the relationship between jobs and people (as some people hold down more
than one job), to changes in employment rates and the extent to which people work longer in the
future, and to commuting dynamics. However this report has sought to make reasonable estimates
of the impact of these issues based on the evidence currently available.
14.32
GL Hearn’s analysis suggests that there are however some committed investment projects which
are likely to support stronger employment growth than is modelled in the Synthesis Baseline
Scenario. In drawing conclusions, GL Hearn has taken account of the potential impacts of
investment in infrastructure including delivery of East-West Rail; and of major development projects
which can be expected to support stronger employment growth in some sectors than shown in the
Synthesis Baseline Forecast. This results in forecast growth of 1.0% per annum in employment,
with net growth of 19,000 jobs between 2013-33 in the District. This is modelled to require 1326
homes per annum. GL Hearn consider this to be a realistic scenario for employment growth, taking
account of local evidence and drivers.
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Drawing Conclusions on Full OAN
14.33
Drawing the above evidence together indicates that a demographic starting point for 1,000 homes
per annum in Aylesbury Vale between 2013-33.
14.34
Evidence from market signals and of affordable housing needs however suggests that higher
housing provision should be considered. The scale of adjustment considered appropriate has been
assessed by interrogating this evidence, as well as household formation trends. GL Hearn conclude
that an upward adjustment of 11% on the demographic-based projections would be appropriate.
14.35
On this basis an identified need for 1112 homes is identified. This should be considered to
represent the District’s “own” housing need based on past population dynamics, with adjustments to
improve affordability. This should be considered as the baseline on top of which any unmet needs
from adjoining areas or other parts of the Central Bucks HMA should be added.
14.36
The full objectively assessed housing need however also needs to take account of potential
economic performance. The report concludes that taking account of baseline forecasts and the
impacts of planned investment which will support economic growth, delivery of 1,326 homes per
annum would be needed.
Objectively-Assessed Housing Need in Aylesbury Vale
1400
1200
214
1000
113
28
Supporting Economic Growth
Improving Affordability
800
600
971
400
Adjusted Migration from
London
Demographic Baseline
200
0
Homes per Annum
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Policy Influences in Considering Overall Housing Provision
14.37
The assessment of housing need above does not include any provision from meeting unmet needs
of adjoining areas. The NPPF (in paragraph 182) outlines that local plans should meet their
objectively assessed housing needs and unmet needs of neighbouring areas where it is reasonable
to do so and consistent with achieving sustainable development.
14.38
The assessment of housing need herein is undertaken on a “policy off” basis. In translating this into
policy targets for housing provision, a range of wider considerations need to be brought together
through the plan-making process – bringing evidence of housing need together with consideration
of land availability, infrastructure capacity and development needs, and development constraints. It
is for the plan itself to consider what level of housing provision can be sustainably accommodated
within the District. Input from a range of stakeholders through consultation on the plan will be an
important input to this.
Need for Different Types of Homes
Sizes of Homes
14.39
There are a range of factors which will influence demand for different sizes of homes in the future,
but a key driver is expected to be demographic changes. A growing proportion of older people may
result in some households choosing to downsize over time. The demographic dynamics of the
District’s population are however likely to continue to reinforce a need for family housing.
14.40
GL Hearn has modelled these factors. From the evidence we can draw the following conclusions
regarding the need for different sizes of homes across the District, over the 2013-33 period:
Table 72: Recommended Mix of Affordable and Market Homes
Market
Affordable
All dwellings
14.41
1-bed
2-bed
3-bed
4+ bed
5%
35%
15%
30%
35%
30%
45%
25%
40%
20%
5%
15%
The strategic conclusions in the affordable sector recognise the role which delivery of larger family
homes can play in releasing supply of smaller properties for other households; together with the
limited flexibility which one-bed properties offer to changing household circumstances which feed
through into higher turnover and management issues.
14.42
Based on the evidence, it is expected that the focus of new market housing provision will be on twoand three-bed properties. Continued demand for family housing can be expected from newly
forming households. There may also be some demand for medium-sized properties (2- and 3-beds)
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from older households downsizing and looking to release equity in existing homes, but still retain
flexibility for friends and family to come and stay.
14.43
The mix identified above should inform strategic District-wide policies. In applying these to
individual development sites regard should be had to the nature of the development site and
character of the area, and to up-to-date evidence of need as well as the existing mix and turnover of
properties at the local level.
14.44
The analysis of an appropriate mix of dwellings should also inform the ‘portfolio’ of sites which are
considered through the Local Plan process. Equally it will be of relevance to affordable housing
negotiations.
Types of Affordable Housing
14.45
The SHMA has considered the need for different types of affordable housing. Based on the needs
evidence, 18% of the identified affordable housing need is for intermediate housing and 82% for
social or affordable rented provision.
14.46
The need for intermediate housing has been calculated on the basis of the proportion of households
in need of affordable housing who can afford more than 80% of market rent levels. Such
households might be eligible for:
 Help-to-Buy Shared Ownership
 Affordable Rent
 Rent-to-Homebuy
 Low Cost Sale
14.47
For a number of these products, households must have a sufficient deposit and be able to secure
mortgage finance. Many young households who may sufficient potential income to afford
intermediate housing solutions cannot secure shared ownership/ shared equity homes as they have
insufficient savings to afford the deposit, or their financial circumstances mean that obtaining
mortgage finance is difficult.
14.48
These factors may the ability of some households to afford intermediate housing products. However
this is potentially offset by households who can potentially afford to rent privately without financial
support, but how cannot afford to buy a home or get on the housing ladder without it. Intermediate
housing products can help such households to get a foothold on the housing ladder.
14.49
The SHMA evidence suggests that based on the needs evidence, policies which seek a mix of
affordable housing provision on new developments where 20% is intermediate housing and 80% is
social or affordable rented homes would be appropriate for the HMA.
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14.50
Policies for the mix of affordable housing need to take account not just of the needs evidence, but
the evidence base regarding development viability. As such in finalising policies, needs and viability
evidence should be brought together. It may be appropriate for viability studies to test potential
alternative policies for the mix of affordable housing in order to support overall delivery.
Specialist Housing and Accommodation for Older Persons
14.51
The number of older persons aged over 65 is projected to increase by 80% over the 2013-33 period.
This is expected to result in an increase in the number of persons requiring support.
14.52
Projections show a potential increase in the number of Aylesbury Vale residents with mobility
problems of 5,346 (103%) between 2013-33, with an increase of 2,401 persons with dementia
(124%). Some of these households will require adaptions to properties to meet their changing
needs; whilst others may require more specialist accommodation or support.
14.53
There are currently just under 1,100 specialist properties for older persons in the District. Around
three quarters of these are in the affordable housing sector.
14.54
Based on an increasing population of older persons, the report estimates a need for around 2,350
additional specialist units for older people in Aylesbury Vale between 2013-33 (117 per annum).
14.55
Specialist housing includes sheltered and extra care housing. The need identified is considered to
fall within a C3 use, and thus form part of the overall Objectively Assessed Need (OAN) for housing
identified in this report. The majority of the need (86%) is expected to be for market housing.
14.56
Decisions about the appropriate mix of specialist housing should take account of the current stock,
other local needs evidence as appropriate, and policies regarding accommodation and care for
older persons. Aylesbury Vale District Council should liaise as appropriate with Buckinghamshire
County Council in this respect.
14.57
The Council should give consideration to how best to deliver the identified specialist housing need,
including for instance the potential to identify sites in accessible locations for specialist housing; or
to require provision of specialist housing for older people as part of larger strategic development
schemes.
14.58
In addition to specialist housing, the potential for the wider housing stock to cater for a growing
older population needs to be considered. Many older people live in homes which they may have
lived in for some years. Adaptations and floating support will be important in helping households
requiring support to remain in their home.
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Registered Care Home Provision
14.59
Registered care provision fall within a C2 use class; with households who live in care homes
counted as part of the institutional rather than the household population. As such provision of
residential care provision is treated in the analysis of housing need separately in this report from
that for C3 dwellings.
14.60
A need for between 35 – 58 residential care bedspaces per annum is identified over the 2013-33
period. The higher end of this range is derived from the 2012-based Household Projections and
consistent with the assessment of OAN. This assumes that the current proportion of people aged
75+ in residential care remains constant to current levels. The lower end is based on estimated by
Buckinghamshire County Council of a need for 20 nursing home places and 15 residential care
bedspaces per annum. These units will fall within a C2 use class, and thus should be treated
separately from the need identified for housing (and conclusions drawn on OAN which are for a C3
use).
Meeting the Needs of Other Vulnerable Groups
14.61
The HEDNA Report has considered the needs of a number of other vulnerable groups within the
District.
14.62
A growing older person population is expected to drive an increase in the number of people with
disabilities. Demographic projections suggest a 173% increase in the population aged over 85 from
2013 to 2033 with Census data suggesting that over 80% of this age group have some level of
disability. The County Council’s research indicates a need for 6 units of specialist housing across
Buckinghamshire every 5-6 years for people with physical and sensory disabilities. The Council
should consider developing a register of suitable properties. In addition Buckinghamshire County
Council identifies a need for 8 homes for those with mental health issues county-wide every 5-6
years.
14.63
The report identifies a number of other groups who may be disadvantaged in the housing market,
including Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) groups, lone parent households, and younger people. It
will be important to ensure that advice regarding appropriate housing choices is provided to these
groups; and that the Council uses its enforcement powers to help maintain standards of properties
within the Private Rented Sector.
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Housing in Aylesbury Town Centre
14.64
The report considers the market for housing in Aylesbury Town Centre. It expects demand to be
particularly to be focused towards childless households principally in their 20s and 30s, and
investors catering for rental demand from this group. This is likely to include a mix of people
working locally, those commuting out of the area, particularly to London.
14.65
Demand for flatted properties and town houses is expected, with the strongest demand expected to
be for sites close to the Rail Station. We would expect demand to be focused towards one- and
two-bed properties, with potential for some three-bed units. Government schemes such as Help-toBuy as well as shared ownership homes can be expected to be popular. The market will be
supported by proposed improvements and investment in the Town Centre.
Employment Land Provision
14.66
Historically, growth in employment in Aylesbury Vale has been similar to that seen across the wider
South East region. The District has a strong representation in employment in agriculture, public
administration and business support activities. In addition there are niche opportunities to develop
the District’s business base, including in high performance engineering; rehabilitation and telecare
technologies; food and drink manufacturing; and ICT activities. The business base in the District is
focused particularly towards small businesses. Self-employment is above average.
14.67
The market analysis highlights the modest scale of the commercial property market in Aylesbury
Vale. The sub-regional markets for both office and industrial space are dominated by Milton Keynes,
which offers better transportation links and has a larger critical mass of existing occupiers. The
Central Bucks FEMA in contrast is more focussed around local provision and SMEs.
14.68
We would expect new-build office (B1a) development to be focused on delivery of small-scale
development to meet local occupier needs from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises; and
providing better quality floorspace for the limited number of current corporate occupiers based in
Aylesbury.
14.69
Headline rents for Grade A office space in the Vale currently stands at around £14-15 psf. This is
generally insufficient to support speculative office development in the short-term. Viability of office
development in Aylesbury, particularly in the Town Centre, is likely to be challenging and would
require developers to secure pre-lets from firms willing to pay a premium rent for new-build space.
This is likely to limit the scale of growth in office floorspace.
14.70
The evidence indicates that industrial development can be similarly expected to be similarly
focussed around meeting the demands of SMEs, although would expect greater spatial
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disaggregation of development across the District. As well as some development in Aylesbury, we
would expect development at Silverstone Circuit, as well as at existing industrial estates in other
settlements including Buckingham and Haddenham.
Forecast Economic Performance
14.71
The report takes up-to-date economic forecasts from three different forecasting houses. Over the
2013-33 period, Cambridge Econometrics Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) expects
12,900 additional jobs to be created. Oxford Economics’ East of England Forecasting Model
expects 15,500 additional jobs. Experian forecast growth of 18,400 jobs over this period.
14.72
These baseline econometric forecasts indicate that the employment in Aylesbury Vale could grow
by between 0.8 – 1.1% per year over the 2013-33 period. The report compares these and develops
a Synthesis Baseline Forecast taking the average growth forecast by sector. This sees growth of
15,600 jobs over the 2013-33 period.
14.73
However there are a number of additional drivers, which have not influenced past trends, which
could support higher employment growth. These include infrastructure investment, such as East
West Rail and High Speed 2, as well as delivery of the ALRA Dairy at Aston Clinton and Silverstone
Masterplan. Taking these into account, an Expected Growth Scenario has been developed. This
sees employment growth of 1.0% per annum with a net increase in employment of 19,000 forecast
over the 2013-33 period.
Need for Employment Land
14.74
The economic forecasts have been translated into a need for employment land, taking account of
the sectoral distribution of employment growth; and considering employment densities, typical
vacancy rates and plot ratios.
14.75
A need for 92 hectares of employment land is calculated in the Synthesis Baseline Forecast. The
additional potential growth in office-focused activities in the Committed Growth Forecast could
increase this by between 5–10 ha, depending on the scale of economic impact and development
densities.
14.76
This assessed need excludes land developed by Arla for dairy-related activities at Aston Clinton,
and of development at Silverstone Circuit which is considered to meet a sub-regional rather than
local employment land need.
14.77
Past trends suggest a need for between 92 – 125 hectares of employment land (based on gross
completions). This is likely to include some development on existing employment sites.
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14.78
GL Hearn consider that it would be appropriate to make provision for around 100 hectares of
employment land based on the evidence available to meet the Vale’s own development needs. The
breaks down to:
 Office floorspace (B1a and B1b): 30 – 35 hectares;
 Industrial floorspace (B1c and B2): 60 hectares; and
 Warehouse and distribution floorspace (B8): 30 hectares.
14.79
This profile of need by use is based on integrating analysis from past completions and the
econometric forecasts.
14.80
These figure excludes any additional floorspace relating to the planned development at Silverstone
Circuit and dairy-related development at Arla.
It may also be necessary to provide additional
provision to meet unmet needs from other local authorities.
14.81
In addition, in considering future employment land allocations, the Council may need to include
some provision for sui generis uses such as waste and recycling activities which typically take place
on employment land.
14.82
This need is for general employment land which is available to meet the needs of a range of
businesses. Sites which are restricted to meeting needs from specific businesses or sectors could
arguably be treated separately in considering the supply/demand balance.
14.83
The evidence herein does not suggest that labour supply will constrain economic growth potential.
However the balance between employment land and housing provision should be reviewed when
drawing together evidence (including in respect of unmet needs) as part of the plan-making process.
14.84
The need identified does not include provision for relocation of businesses from any employment
sites which may be identified for redevelopment. Should the Vale of Aylesbury Local Plan identify
sites for redevelopment which would require relocation of current active businesses, it may be
necessary to include additional provision of employment land to support relocations.
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