DRAFT SYLLABUS
ESM 232: Environmental Modeling
Monday and Wednesday 2:15-3:30, Bren Hall room 1510
Instructor
Dr. Leah Gerber
Leah.gerber@asu.edu
Required Text: Dale, V.H. 2003. Ecological Modeling for Resource Management,
Springer. 328 p.
Office Hours: Monday and Wednesday 11:00-12:00
Course Goals
Introduction to the development, evaluation, interpretation, and presentation of models as
applied to environmental problems. Course will consist of theory and practical examples
building and interpreting models using computers. No previous computer experience
required. Classes will be comprised of lectures, discussion and computer laboratories.
Using real-world examples, students will learn about ecological models that are used to
support management and policy decisions. We will explore the theory of model
construction and evaluation, with a focus on how to apply and interpret models. Students
will use these techniques to develop an in depth research project and term paper. The
class will provide students with important quantitative, written and oral communication
skills.
Course Learning Outcomes
This is what I hope you will leave the class being able to do:
 Communication skills:
o List and explain the major uses of scientific models to a newspaper
reporter or high school science teacher.
o Describe a model to a policy maker.
 Comprehension of peer reviewed, published literature containing model analysis
o Identify the underlying assumptions in any model and discuss their
implications.
o Explicitly list and explain limitations and pitfalls associated with modeling
and how to avoid each of these potential problems.
o Classify scientific models: dynamic vs. static, continuous vs. discrete,
spatial vs. point, mechanistic vs. conceptual, deterministic vs. stochastic
o Understand the process of using models to make predictions or test
hypotheses (for a variety of different types of models).
o Explain the relationship between models and scientific hypotheses.
 Understanding of the steps for construction and analysis of a model de novo
o Prescribe an appropriate model to address a particular question about a
particular system.
o Outline the concepts and steps involved in constructing and applying
models.
o Have basic familiarity with software and programming.
Overview of lecture-lab-debate schedule
The course will begin with two background lectures. First, we will discuss the value of
models in managing environmental resources. Second I will provide an overview of the
types of environmental models as well as my own philosophy about how to build them.
Activities for the next seven weeks will cover seven broad topics (one per week) and be
structured around three general themes: 1) How to construct models, 2) How to evaluate
models and 3) How to cope with models in decision-making. Each week I will start off
with a lecture that poses a critical environmental problem and a modeling approach that
provides guidance on how to solve this problem. Lectures (Tuesdays) will typically
cover the first two themes whereas labs or debates (Thursdays) will cover the third
theme. The goal of labs is to introduce you to a few tools of the trade for implementing
models. Debates will focus on analysis of published models related to each topic.
Proficiency in any of these tools is not required; in fact proficiency is beyond the scope of
the class. Instead I want you to learn enough about modeling, software and
implementation so that you can critically evaluate others work in which the same tools
are applied. You will have the opportunity to describe your analysis of a policy-relevant
model in your final presentation, which will take place during the last two weeks of class.
Grading
35%: Policy brief
35%: Computer labs
15% Final presentation
15%: Participation and attendance
Directed Research Project
You may work independently or as a team with up to 3 classmates to prepare a policy
brief that includes an analysis of an environmental model. I encourage you to use this as
an opportunity to strengthen the modeling associated with your Group Project for Bren. I
will work with you independently or in groups and you will have a chance to get
feedback from me when you submit your proposal (due October 27). For group projects,
your proposal should make clear who will be doing what for the final paper. Your final
presentation you are expected to clearly communicate your understanding of the model
construction as well as your evaluation of the model.
Date
Lecture Topic
Lab/Debate (application)
27-Sep
Lecture 1: Why do we need
models to address
environmental problems?
Breaking the ice: Discussion
about how models can inform
decision-making.
Reading
Ch. 1, 2, 4
29-Sep
Lecture 2: How to construct a The Wizard of Oz: Discussion
model. Overview of different about transparency in model
types of models
construction and believability
in policy arena
4-Oct
Lecture 3: Decision analysis
and applying models to make
Lab: Multicriteria decision
decisions
analysis and optimization
6-Oct
Lab 1
11-Oct
Lecture 4: Extinction risk:
Matrix population models and
sensitivity analysis
Lab: Sensitivity analysis
13-Oct
18-Oct
20-Oct
Ch. 8
Ch. 5-6
Lab 2
Lecture 5: Climate change
mitigation: Climate and
hydrologic models (guest)
Debate: The role of models in
Ch. 2
determining climate change
Ch 9-10
policy
Debate 1
25-Oct
Lecture 6: Land use planning: Lab: Establishing marine
Populations in Space
reserves in the Gulf of
California under climate
Lab 3
change (Marxan software)
TBD
27-Oct
1-Nov
3-Nov
8-Nov
Lecture 7: Managing
ecosystems: Ecosystem &
harvest models
Lab: Whales eat fish (Ecopath
Ch. 13, 14
software)
Lab 4
Lecture 8: Life cycle analysis
(guest)
10-Nov
Debate 2
15-Nov
Lecture 9: Ecosystem
services: Socio-economic
systems
17-Nov
Debate 3
22-Nov
Presentations
Debate: Merits of LEED
certification or Carbon
Footprint estimation
Ch. 16
Debate: Merits and perils of
valuing ecosystem services
TBD
Presentations
24-Nov
29-Nov
1-Dec
Presentations
Presentations