Case Study Examples are in Blue
Apples, Climate Change and New York: 2050 Orchard Design
Activity
Global warming is a discussion that is gaining popularity; however, not many take the time to think about what this climate change means to
them. While the climate is changing globally it is also altering the weather patterns and climate in the Northeast. In this activity you’ll use climate
data obtained from North East Climate Data website to interpret the change New Hampshire will see by the year 2050. Combining climate
information with information about various varieties of apples, you will design an orchard for the year 2050. In doing so the following question
should be answered.
What is the future for apples in New Hampshire; will the popular apple growing regions and types of apples grown shift or change?
Step 1: Orchard Location:
Concord, New Hampshire
(Choose a location within New York State where you’d like you’re 2050 Orchard to be located)
Step 2: Determine the types of apples that are currently grown locally in your chosen location. Choose two varieties to study and an additional
two varieties that could be introduced to the region.
Apple Variety 1:
McIntosh
Apple Variety 2:
Red Delicious
New Apple Variety 1:
Golden Delicious
New Apple Variety 2:
Granny Smith
Step 3: Fill in the apple varieties that interest you and the climate data that fits their growing needs. Use the provided table alongside the
student_factsheet.pdf as a guide and reference.
Step 4: Continue to fill in the table with the historical data you’ve found on your location
There are two locations for you to look for this data. Both are provided below.
Case Study Examples are in Blue
i.
ii.
First access geographically plotted climate data from the source. Open your web browser and follow the instructions included in
NEClimateData Tutorial.docx to guide you through accessing information off of the North East Climate Data website. This data will be
provided in color images and is more helpful for hardiness zone and days above 90F. For precipitation and spring frost data that is easier
to read and interpret follow the next set of instructions.
For additional data open the provided MS Excel files Last Frost Data.xls, Historical Last Frost Data.xls and Precipitation.xls for numerical
values to supplement the color images provided on the North East Climate Data website. Open each file and sort through the information
to find what is relative and important to your location.
Step 5: Using the above linked documents in Step 4 repeat the procedure for future predictions and add the data values to your table created
above. Before you begin collecting data you must chose an emission scenario; A1 or B1. While gathering your modeled data for 2050 keep in
mind that you only want data for your chosen emission scenario, once you choose one stick with it.
Your emission scenario: (circle one)
A1
B1
Your Location: Concord, NH
Apple Variety
McIntosh
Red
Golden
Delicious
Delicious
Granny
Smith
Location
Data
Maximum
Hardiness
Zone
Minimum
Hardiness
Zone
Growing
Season Length
Bloom Date
Harvest Date
7
7
10
9
Hardiness
Zone
4
4
5
6
153 days
153 days
153 days
158 days
Mid April
Mid Sept
Mid April
Mid Sept
Mid April
Mid Sept
Currently
Locally
Yes
Yes
No
Late May
Middle to
Late Oct
No
Apple Data
Growing
Season
Length
Climate Variable
Historical
Predicted Value
Value
for 2050 (given
A1 scenario)
5
6
160 days
186 days
Conclusions: Is this
change in climate
good or bad for
apples?
This has little effect
on current apples,
however it allows a
new variety to be
introduced: Granny
Smith
This is good for
apples and apple
growers
Case Study Examples are in Blue
Grown?
Precipitation
Heat
tolerance
475mm of water distributed evenly over 7-10 day intervals
between the months of May and August
Precipitation 365mm
498mm
Low heat
tolerance
Days above
90F
30 days
Low heat
tolerance
Moderate
heat
tolerance
High heat
tolerance
5-10 days
This is good for
apples, provided it
doesn’t continue to
rise
This is bad for
current locally grown
apple varieties
Step 6: Using all your gathered information both above and in the apple fact sheet choose new apple tree varieties for your 2050 orchard.
New Trees:
Granny Smith
Golden Delicious
Discussion Questions:
1. Would apple trees in your chosen location need extra care? For example, more water, more drainage a hot house to extend the natural
growing season.
Currently in Concord the trees need additional water (irrigation) during the vital months. The 2050 orchard however will not, the
increase in precipitation will cover the water needs. However it is important to keep in mind that if the climate continues in the trend
the new orchard is going to have increased pest problems and will need drainage to prevent over watering. The extended growing
season will not harm the apple production however it may shift the harvest date to sooner in the year, this can be determined by looking
into the last spring frost data. If the last spring frost moves in either direction it will shift the apple harvest date by the same amount in
the corresponding direction.
2. Will there be new locations in New Hampshire that didn’t grow apples well before that will be able to produce a larger apple crop given
the climate change by 2050?
Case Study Examples are in Blue
Judging by the hardiness zone map (Figure 1 and Figure 2 in the Case study) the northern section of New Hampshire, known as the
White Mountain region will be able to grow the apples that currently grow well in the Concord area. This would open a new industry in
Northern New Hampshire.
3. Within your geographical location is there an ideal location for your orchard? Next to a lake or large river? If so where and why is this a
benefit?
There is a large lake named Winnipesaukee just north of Concord by about 20 miles. It is in the same geographical region and shares the
same hardiness zone. It would provide the added benefits mentioned in the student info sheet such as cool spring air and warmer winter
air.