Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Implications
for Selected Inland Areas of the State of Florida
April 2013
1. Name of Project: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Implications for Selected Inland Areas of
the State of Florida
2. Name of State Team: Florida Silver Jackets Team
3. USACE Contact: David P. Apple, PE
Chief, Watershed Planning Section, CESAJ-PD-PW
P.O. Box 4970
Jacksonville, FL 32232
david.p.apple@usace.army.mil
(904)-232-1757
State Contact:
Joy Duperault, CFM
National Flood Insurance Program Manager
Florida Division of Emergency Management
2555 Shumard Oak Boulevard
Tallahassee, FL 32399
(850) 922-4518
4. Description of the Project:
The proposed non-structural project will develop Sea Level Rise (SLR) curves and inland area
inundation maps for flood prone areas located along the portions of three (3) major rivers of
Florida: The St. Johns, St. Marys, and Suwannee Rivers. The resulting products from this
proposed study would be used by state, regional, and local officials as well as members of the
community to assess potential SLR scenarios and the potential combined effects of storm surge
with SLR. The proposed study effort will leverage the work that has already been done by the
Florida State Emergency Response Team (SERT), Northeast Florida Regional Council
(NEFRC), and other agencies. The maps and data that are produced will be placed on USACE
and State of Florida web sites for public distribution.
Inland areas that may flood as a result of future SLR rise and storm surges are perhaps the most
uncertain and hazardous, as many of these areas would not have experienced flooding issues
within the recorded past. Informed decisions could be made on future development within
potentially affected inland areas, decreasing future consequences of flooding by steering land use
policy toward unaffected lands and modifying existing infrastructure to withstand future impacts.
Emergency and recovery costs could be greatly reduced by addressing SLR and storm surge
before it occurs. Most importantly, the information and maps that will be produced will enhance
communication and awareness with the public, and could be instrumental in preventing future
loss of life due to flooding in these areas.
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Project Background
In the coastal areas within the State of Florida, SLR and associated storm surge has already been
identified as a cause of a number of impacts in coastal and estuarine zones, resulting in shoreline
erosion and inundation of low-lying coastal areas. Although a lot of attention has been focused
on these coastal areas, little attention has been given to the effects of sea level rise on riverine
flooding of inland areas. Future inland flooding could likely become a serious problem, with
rising river stages resulting from increasing tidal influences and farther reaching storm surges.
Florida is the fourth largest state by population and has experienced rapid growth since 1960,
with the population expected to increase to 24 million residents by 2030. The entire State of
Florida is particularly susceptible to flooding due to its low-lying topography and large amounts
of coastline. The average ground elevation for the entire state of Florida is just 100 feet above
mean sea level. Therefore, Florida is especially vulnerable to inland or riverine flooding, and
this vulnerability will likely increase due to future sea level rise and storm surge. Much of the
associated development to accommodate the large population of Florida has taken place within
the coastal regions and inland areas along rivers that could be inundated under these future sea
level rise scenarios. FEMA estimates that about 41 percent of Florida is flood prone, which is the
highest percentage of all 50 states. Due to the potential for flood damage, Florida has the highest
number of flood insurance policies required by the National Flood Insurance Program of any US
state.
As a result of these factors, there is a substantial risk to life safety and loss of property within
inland areas under future SLR scenarios. Storm surges under even baseline scenarios could have
severe consequences, and efforts are needed to address potential problem areas before effects
begin to occur.
Methods: In October 2011, the USACE released it latest version of EC-1165-2-212 which
provided new guidance for incorporating sea level rise (SLR) into all USACE water resources
management projects. Three rivers in northern Florida, the St. Johns, St. Mary’s and Suwannee,
are tidally-influenced by the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. To address these tidal influences
such as these, the EC also included guidance on addressing potential relative sea-level change
and the extent of effects on these riverine systems.
The EC calls for an assessment of project performance and risk associated with three potential
SLR scenarios. The three potential scenarios to be considered reflect the historical rate of SLR
along with intermediate and high rates of potential SLR developed by the National Research
Council (NRC) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (See Figure 1)
Curves for three different SLR scenarios, baseline, intermediate and high, are developed for
specific locations using local tide gauge data and local rates of vertical land movement. As an
example, the graph below (Figure 1) shows the three SLR scenario curves that were developed
for a Hurricane and Storm Damage Reduction study in coastal Flagler County, Florida. Curves
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will be generated to address each scenario for riverine areas of the St. Mary’s, St. Johns, and
Suwannee Rivers. These river basins have significant tidal influences that extent far inland and
would be greatly affected by future sea level rise.
Figure 1. Regional Sea Level Rise vs Time (Years) for Flagler County
Deliverables: Three potential SLR curves will be generated for each river and associated riverine
impact maps will be developed that show the potential future inundated areas. The maps will
provide a simple and efficient product for planners, local officials and the public to assess where
SLR could have the greatest impacts within a specific riverine area. The spatial visualization of
these SLR scenarios will more clearly demonstrate what future SLR might mean for a riverine
area as opposed to numerical data alone. The following graphic (Figure 2) shows a map of the
surge zones developed for Northeast Florida as part of the Northeast Florida Region Statewide
Regional Evacuation Study Program. The maps that will be produced for this study will follow
the same approach, but will provide finer detail for those areas within the three major riverine
systems that will be vulnerable to future sea level rise.
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Figure 2. Northeast Florida Regional Surge Zones
5. Proposed Timetable of Project:
Start date- June 1, 2013
End date- June 31, 2014
6. Outcome of Project:
This pilot project will provide the following benefits:
1) A method of visually communicating the potential risks of SLR and storm surge in inland
areas of Florida. This will include inundation maps and providing website databases depicting
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anticipated future SLR scenarios. This will improve understanding of what the future might look
like.
2) Identification of areas along the St. Marys, St. Johns, and Suwannee Rivers most vulnerable
to inundation by SLR and storm surge. This will include those areas several miles inland and
affected by SLR and storm surge. This will allow for a quick initial look at how vulnerable an
area might be in the future and help ensure that planning considerations are based on this
vulnerability. This could also be used to avoid time-consuming and costly analysis that may not
be necessary in less vulnerable areas.
3) Consistent understanding of potential SLR and storm surge risks between state and local
planning groups when working on various community development projects. This could be used
for both Corps and State and Local government efforts across a range of projects including storm
damage reduction, navigation, ecosystem restoration, emergency response, community planning,
and permitting.
4) The study products will identify potential needs for additional analysis and data requirements
to facilitate future planning efforts. That is, additional modeling/data may be needed in certain
areas to completely identify the future rising water threat.
7. Conclusion:
How will results be communicated?
The results will be communicated through a short report that will include a series of maps
showing potential inundation from future sea level rise and storm surge scenarios for selected
inland areas of Florida. Maps will be available in ARC Shape files for customizable visual
communication for a variety of interests.
Can the results be quantified? In what units?
Yes. The results can be quantified in terms of areas vulnerable to sea level rise and storm
surge (units of acres or square miles). The results can be quantified in terms of flood elevation
for specific locations for potential future scenarios (units of feet above base elevation).
Who will perform the work?
Primary work will be done by USACE, Jacksonville District, Planning and Engineering Staff
and the Florida DEM. Close coordination with and contributions from NOAA, NWS, SRWMD,
SJRWMD, FL DEP, and FL DEO are also expected.
Briefly describe any non-labor elements.
No significant non-labor elements are anticipated.
What resources are being leveraged (quantify)?
Engineering Circular 1165-2-211 (Guidance for incorporating direct and indirect physical
effects of projected future sea-level change, based on future scenarios developed by the NRC and
IPCC, in managing, planning, engineering, designing, constructing, operating, and maintaining
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USACE projects and systems of projects.); In northeastern FL the Northeast Florida Region
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program (Study finished in 2010 that includes SLOSH
model results for the entire region, storm surge maps, critical infrastructure data, infrastructure
vulnerable to storm surge data, LIDAR data for the region, and other useful information)
What agencies will participate?
USACE, Florida SERT (DEM), Northeast Florida Regional Council, SJRWMD, SRWMD,
NOAA/NWS, USGS, FEMA, FL DEP and FL DEO.
Projected estimate of reduction in future expenditure?
There is the anticipation that with this product significant study time could be saved by being
able to quickly determine how vulnerable an area or specific project is to a number of potential
sea level rise and storm surge scenarios. If sea level rise or storm surge is significant it would
require site specific research for individual projects, but if minimal, perhaps no additional work
will be necessary. This would be applicable to both Corps and non-Corps projects. Reduced
expenditures could also be realized in the future through better decision making on future
projects potentially subject to sea level rise. Specifically, this effort could eliminate construction
of infrastructure within areas that could be impacted by SLR/Storm Surge in the future,
significantly reducing recovery costs, economic impacts such as infrastructure damage and
business closures, and potentially even loss of life. Millions of dollars potentially could be
saved.
SLR and Storm Surge Communication for Inland Areas of Florida Leveraged Resources Table
Agency
USACE
Resource
Development of GIS
data and mapping
FDEM
Collection and
processing to EM
Constellation dbase/
GIS. Regional effects
of storms
On-site surveys to
provide GIS mapping
data. Uses FDOT
Serial Survey.
On-site surveys to
provide GIS mapping
data. Modeling info
on levees.
SRWMD
SJRWMD
NEFRC
Description
Develop GIS database
for publishing and
mapping
HW platform/ SW
Photo/GPS teams,
GIS maps
Limits
Coordination and
available data.
Photos/video of River
Watershed Areas
Mission Priorities, not
on site teams, no
internal survey for
elevation resourced.
Data collection for
local flooding
considered local
responsibility.
Monitors internal
project water levels
and has contract with
USGS for regional
levels.
Photos/video of River
Watershed Areas
On-site surveys to
provide GIS mapping
data.
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Should be made
priority and resources
for GIS team to
develop.
Unknown
NOAA/NWS
Information and
expertise to analyze
hydrological
data/gauging data.
USGS
Mapping data,
Gauging data,
Website
Current and future
flood mapping. FIS
stream modeling data.
FEMA
Planning and
coordination to help
target surveys that
support modeling and
mapping.
USGS FIMI, can offer
mapping data and
expertise.
Current NFIP FIRMs
and some future flood
maps. Individual
house site
information/data.
No dedicated staff
available for on site
data collection.
Staffing for onsite
collection.
Information about
homeowners filed
claims for individual
assistance.
8. Letter of support from a state lead of the Silver Jackets Team:
Indicating how the proposal helps achieve state or community goals, the role the state or
partner anticipates taking in the conduct of the project, and the state or partner’s ongoing
commitment to long-term outcomes. (See attached letter from Mr. Miles Anderson, Bureau
Chief of Mitigation, Florida State Hazard Mitigation Officer)
9. Completed funding request template:
SLR and Storm Surge Communication
for Inland Areas of Florida
Total Study Cost
$25,000
Riverine SLR Curves
Data collection, Modeling, GIS Mapping
and Analysis
Write Report, Website development,
Documentation Presentation
$75,000
$25,000
$125,000
Total
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