SI2-SSI: A Sustainable Community Software Framework for Petascale Earthquake
Modeling (SEISM) (OCI-1148493) Principle Investigator: Thomas H. Jordan Annual
Report Performance Period 1 August 2013 – 31 July 2014
The following figures are referenced in our SEISM Project Year 2 Progress Report.
State of California
Bid 10091115
RFQ No. 10091115
STATE OF CALIFORNIA – CALIFORNIA NATURAL RESOURCES AGENCY
EDMUND G. BROWN JR., Governor
DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
Division of Engineering
1416 9th Street, Room 406-10
Sacramento, CA 95814
REQUEST FOR QUALIFICATIONS NO. 10091115
Synthetic Seismic Record Library Development Services
TO ALL PROSPECTIVE APPLICANTS
October 21, 2013
The Department of Water Resources (DWR), Division of Safety of Dams invites individuals or individuals
associated with a firm with extensive background in Engineering Seismology to submit a Statement of
Qualifications (SOQ). The Department of Water Resources (DWR) is seeking an individual (who may be
associated with a firm) to provide engineering seismology services. In order for DWR to better analyze the
effects of high magnitude earthquake events on regulated dam structures, the selected Contractor will help
DWR staff to (1) establish a library of synthetic ground motion records, (2) develop procedures and
infrastructure to develop additional synthetic time histories, (3) implement the Broadband Platform software
developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), and (4) train DWR personnel in SCEC
software usage.
A copy of the Request for Qualifications (RFQ) No. 10091115 is enclosed. The RFQ contains a description
of the qualifications required and directions for preparation and submittal of your response. The SOQ must
be received by 2:00 p.m. on Tuesday, November 12, 2013, at the address indicated in Section VI of the
enclosed RFQ.
The Contractor may be required to work independently or partner with other DWR employees or private
professionals but always at the direction of the DWR.
The anticipated term of this agreement is January 7, 2014 through December 31, 2015.
The Department reserves the right to cancel or modify this RFQ up to the date and time the SOQ is due and
to waive non-material defects with any of the SOQs. Additionally, the Department is not responsible for any
preparation costs incurred by parties submitting a SOQ.
A copy of the State’s General Terms and Conditions is not provided in this RFQ. However, they are available
at Internet site http://www.ols.dgs.ca.gov/standard+language and may be downloaded and printed for your
files. These terms and conditions will become a part of the contract language and are NON-NEGOTIABLE.
Any issues regarding these terms and conditions MUST be addressed during the question and answer
period. If you do not have Internet capabilities, you may request a hard copy by contacting the person listed
in Section II of the RFQ.
The Contractor Certification Clauses (also available at the Internet site referenced above) contain terms and
conditions that may apply to person(s) doing business with the State of California, and that may apply to your
agreement. If awarded the contract, you must sign and return Page One of the CCC 307. The Certification
must be renewed every three (3) years and will be updated when the State makes revisions to the clauses.
Please follow instructions in Section II of the enclosed RFQ for questions regarding services to be performed
or submission requirements.
Sincerely,
Douglas Ellis, Contract Manager
Division of Safety of Dams
Enclosure
10/23/2013 4:10 PM
p. 3
Figure 1: Public notice from California Department of Water Resources
showing their plans to use the SCEC Broadband Platform. This DWR
contract has been awarded to URS Corporation, a documented example of
how the NSF SI2 program, through its investment in SCEC’s SEISM software,
has produced community software (the SCEC Broadband Platform), and
created new non-federal jobs.
Figure 2: Two CyberShake hazard models for the Los Angeles Region calculated on Blue
Waters in SEISM Project year 2 using a simple 1D earth model (left) and a more realistic 3D
earth model (right). Seismic hazard estimates produced using the 3D earth model show (1)
lower near-fault intensities due to 3D scattering, (2) much higher intensities in near-fault
basins, (3) higher intensities in the Los Angeles basins, and (4) lower intensities in hard-rock
areas.
Figure 3: Summary results and analysis of simulations for the Mw 5.4 2008 Chino Hills
earthquake using different velocity models (CVM-S and CVM-H) and showcasing the
connection from geoscience modeling to engineering applications. The top row shows results
corresponding to the simulation done using CVM-S, while the bottom row shows those
corresponding to CVM-H. Each column from left to right shows: (1) The surface shear wave
velocity for each model. 3D meshes built for these simulations consist of up to 15 billion finite
elements. (2) The simulation results for the surface horizontal peak ground velocity. The star
indicates the epicenter location. (3) Validation results using goodness-of-fit metrics to
compare synthetics to data. In this study we used over 300 recording stations. GOF scores
closer to 10 (lighter colors) indicate a better fit with the data. (4) Comparison with
attenuation relationships used in engineering to estimate peak ground velocity. The red line
corresponds to the actual trend from earthquake data, the two black lines indicate an upper
and lower bound based on empirical relationships, and the green line shows the trend of the
surface results from the simulation, which are shown as a gray cloud of points on the
background.
Figure 2: Subset of 8 stations comparing the results of simulations using various
velocity models against the corresponding time series recorded at selected seismic
monitoring and strong ground motion stations during the 2008 Chino Hills
earthquake. We did comparisons for over 336 stations.
Figure 3: Spatial distribution of the goodness-of-fit scores obtained from comparisons
between three simulation sets and the signals recorded at 336 stations within the
region of interest.
Table 1 Simulation parameters and measured performance for Hercules on Blue
Waters for the simulation of the 2008 Chino Hills earthquake using different velocity
models.
Figure 4: Results from two 0-10Hz deterministic ground motion simulations using a
earthquake source description created by a dynamic rupture simulation along a
rough fault. Two different 3D velocity models were used, showing the impact of
adding small-scale heterogeneities into velocity models used for high frequency
deterministic simulations.
Figure 5: Google analytics map for SEISM Project Wiki
(http://scec.usc.edu/scecpedia) showing geographical distribution of visitors to the
web site during SEISM Project Year 1.
Figure 6: This plot compares decay of ground motion with distance
for a M6.6 earthquake as predicted by existing GMPE’s and by
Broadband Platform simulations, and it identifies an acceptance
criteria new methods must meet before use in building engineering
studies. SEISM scientists and civil engineers defined this test to
evaluate new ground motion simulation methods. This evaluation
method was integrated into the Broadband Platform and used to
evaluate 6 alternative ground motion methods.
Figure 7: Goodness-of-Fit plot comparing calculated seismograms for 40
stations using the Graves & Pitarka method against recorded ground
motions for the Loma Prieta (1989) earthquake.