Concept Note NIF Work stream 8- Total Syrian population estimates
Key Driver
Objective
Sub-objectives
Country wide total Syrian population estimates reviewed using humanitarian standards and agreed between all hubs
and key stakeholders. Final estimations will be used in the future as HNO-SRP reference fostering further evidencebased population tracking.
To define and agree on Whole of Syria (WoS) Total Population estimates using the humanitarian profile model and in
consensus among all hubs responding to the crisis.
1. Ensure total population estimates per sub-districts with key stakeholders as ESCWA, UNDESA etc. contributing to
a more accurate estimations taking into consideration the impact of the conflict dynamics in Syria.
2. Achieve an inter-hubs agreement on total population estimates per sub-districts to be considered as reference for
next strategic humanitarian response plans reflected in upcoming documents as HNO and SRP.
3. Establish an accurate estimates baseline allowing fostering and comparing against more evidence-based
population tracking at Governorate and sub-district levels.
The method of work for this stream will be collaborative for direction and inputs, but relies on a core multi –
sector/agency sprint team (tbd) that undertakes the leg work and reports to the needs sub group on key milestones
for approval and moving forward.
Working method /
Work flow
The key steps of the process are as follows:
1. Define the group within SIMAWG needs sub-group members that will act as a sounding board that defines the
working method and approves key milestones
2. Define the sprint team that will undertake the leg work
3. Develop/refine/harmonize bridging and harmonization tools or elements and develop a refined Total
population estimates methodology
4. Conduct workshop to discuss and put forward lead expert’s draft methodology for total population estimates
5. Put forward the proposal resulting from the workshop to the SIMAWG for discussion and approval
6. SIMAWG suggests the refined total population estimates method for ISCCG endorsement
7. Use the new method for the HNO review workshop in August 2015.
Activities
Responsible
Target Date
1. Develop concept note corresponding to NIF work stream 8 -Total Syrian population estimates.
NIF
April 23
2. Endorse concept note with needs SG and explore and analyze work stream steps forward
through assigning roles and responsibilities
3. Form SIMAWG multi-agency sprint team to follow up on population estimates with key agencies
and experts.
NIF/SIMAWG-Needs
Sub-group
NIF/SIMAWG-Needs
Sub-group
NIF/SIMAWG-Needs
Sub-group
4. Identify lead technical expert to facilitate reaching consensus on total population.
5. Undertake desk review of existing figures and methodologies by contacting and exploring the
support of key actors reviewing total population estimates (ESCWA, UNDESA, UNOSAT,
OCHA RO/NIF
April 28
April 28
May 13
May 7
Concept Note NIF Work stream 8- Total Syrian population estimates
Landscan)
6. Undertake consultation visits to the different hubs in support of the process coordination
including:
-Lebanon: Coordination with ESCWA and OCHA-Damascus
-Gaziantep: Coordination with OCHA-Gaziantep
-Other locations: If needed as per agreed agenda
7. Draft 0 of total population estimates methodology finalized
8. Conduct workshop to discuss and put forward lead expert’s draft methodology for total
population estimates
9. Review and endorse methodology and final figures for Total Syrian population estimates.
10. Present unified methodology and figures ready to be used by humanitarian actors and HNO-SRP
including humanitarian standards as SADDD.
Assumptions
NIF
Expert/ SIMAWG TF/
NIF
NIF/SIMAWG-Needs
& data Subgroups/others
NIF/SIMAWG-Needs
& data Subgroups/others
NIF/SIMAWG-Needs
& data Subgroups/others
Between:
May 13-June 28
June 13
Week June 15
Week June 15-June
29
June 29
Timely, positive response and active participation from technical entities and experts on population estimates.
Timely, positive response and active participation from SIMAWG subgroups members upon need including time allocation to
specific tasks.
Flexibility of application of standard estimates/projection methodology(ies) ensuring best possible results
Technical expertise finds the way through for allowing that a) conflict dynamics are included to the extent that is possible on the
estimates b) creates a methodology easily to update in the future and b) disaggregates the population estimates to the lower
possible granularity (Governorate, District, sub-district).
Risks
Overcoming
One single estimates/projection methodology cannot be applied
for producing the estimates.
NIF coordination will facilitate the communication between different technical
experts’ bodies ensuring to bridge any potential methodological limitation.
The process faces limited level of granularity.
Total population estimates will arrive to the lower level of possible granularity.
Hubs and potential task forces work in parallel.
Continuous communication and field visits will ensure appropriate coordination
mechanisms and agenda follow up.
Not all actors endorse final products.
Unlikely if the previous overcoming point is properly applied.
Concept Note NIF Work stream 8- Total Syrian population estimates
Work stream 8-work plan
Activity
Develop concept note
Endorse note at SIMAWG
Form SIMAWG Taskforce to follow up with key agencies and experts
Identify lead technical expert
Contact leading agencies on population statistics for support
Undertake NIF field visits
Finalize methodology draft 0
Conduct Workshop
Review & endorse methodology
Present methodology and figures
April
May
June
23
28
28
13
7
TBD
15
15
29
29