Population Estimates by Marital Status and
Living Arrangements
Quality Measures
Background
In October 2014 we published a consultation response document which confirmed
that we would be changing the method that we use to produce the Population
Estimates by Marital Status and Living Arrangements. The new method is based on
survey data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) which is applied to the published
population estimates (by five-year age group and sex) for England and Wales. This
has allowed us to incorporate estimates of the civil partnered population, the
cohabiting population and it also gives us the potential to produce a quality measure
for these data. The first estimates using the new methodology were published in July
2015.
Proposal
We wish to consult our users on the addition of quality measures to the Population
Estimates by Marital Status and Living Arrangements. There are 2 proposals which
we would like our users to consider:


Produce and publish Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Confidence Intervals
(CI) around the survey part of each estimate within the Population
Estimates by Marital Status and Living Arrangements publication.
Continue to produce and publish the Population Estimates by Marital Status
and Living Arrangements without any measure of quality.
The Coefficient of Variation (CV) indicates the robustness of each estimate. It is
defined as CV =
where Standard Error is an estimate of the
margin of error associated with a sample survey.
The Confidence Interval (CI) provides an estimated range of values in which an
actual data value is likely to fall 95% of the time.
An example of the use of these types of quality measures can be found in the
Families and Households publication, this is shown in the screen shot below.
Please note that we are currently unable to produce quality measures for the
complete estimates and that any quality measures that we may provide, as a result
of this consultation, will be based on the survey part of the estimate only.
For example in July 2015 we estimated that there were 1,412,680 single, never
married males aged 16-19 in England and Wales in 2014. The survey estimate that
the complete estimate is based on was 1,389,131 single males aged 16-19 in
England and Wales in 2014 (the survey estimate is then applied to the Mid-year
Population Estimate to create the complete estimate). Any quality measures that we
may produce will be based on the survey estimate of 1,389,131.
Action
We request that users of the Population Estimates by Marital Status and Living
Arrangements consider the 2 proposals which we have outlined above. Users should
respond to us by email (families@ons.gsi.gov.uk) with answers to the following
questions by Friday 8 January 2016:
1) How do you use the Population Estimates by Marital Status and Living
Arrangements?
2) Which of the options regarding quality measures you would prefer and how
this would affect your use of the statistics?
3) Whether there would be any additional value to having quality measures
around the complete estimate if a methodology to produce these were to be
developed in the future?
Alternatively users can contact us by phone:
+44 (0)1329 44 7890
or by post:
Demographic Analysis Unit,
Room 2300,
Office for National Statistics,
Segensworth Road,
Fareham,
Hampshire,
PO15 5RR.