Information note
Revision of the European Standard
Population (ESP) – effect on UK
official statistics
A summary for users of statistics
Key points
 A change to the methods for calculating age-standardised rates will cause mortality rates and
cancer incidence rates to increase significantly.
 It is important to be aware that this is due to an improvement in statistical methods and not to
any unusual increase in the actual numbers of deaths or cancer registrations.
 The change is being implemented in the course of 2014. Key previously published figures are
being revised to allow comparison over time.
 Detailed information is available on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website.
Introduction
The European Standard Population (ESP) is an artificial population structure which is used in the
weighting of mortality or incidence data to produce age standardised rates (ASRs). Eurostat, the
statistical institute of the European Union, decided at the end of 2012 to bring this population
structure up to date.1 The existing ESP, which was introduced in 1976, is referred to in this
document as ‘the 1976 ESP’ and the new one as ‘the 2013 ESP’.
This change to the methods for the calculation of ASRs will have a significant effect on a variety of
figures published as official statistics in the UK, by ONS and other Government Statistics Service
(GSS) organisations. This document is a brief overview of the effect of the change. More detailed
reports on the reasons for the change and the methodological issues involved are available on the
ONS website,2 as is the public consultation carried out by ONS in August-October 2013.3
1
Eurostat. Revision of the European Standard Population – Report of Eurostat’s Task Force:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/product_details/publication?p_product_code=KS-RA-13028
2 Office for National Statistics. Revised European Standard Population 2013 (2013 ESP):
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/user-guidance/health-and-life-events/revised-european-standardpopulation-2013--2013-esp-/index.html
Office for National Statistics
Information note
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Revision of the European Standard Population (ESP) – effect on UK official statistics
An Excel spreadsheet which demonstrates how age standardisation works can be found on the
ONS website. There is one version of the spreadsheet which illustrates ASR calculations using the
1976 ESP4 and another version using the 2013 ESP.5
Please note that all figures presented here using the 2013 ESP are provisional, and are not
published as National Statistics.
Effect on mortality rates
Because the 2013 ESP is weighted more heavily towards older ages than the 1976 ESP, and most
deaths occur at older ages, there is a significant increase in most age standardised mortality rates
when using the 2013 ESP. For example, the all-age, all-cause, age standardised mortality rate in
England and Wales in 2011 was 526.9 deaths per 100,000 persons using the 1976 ESP. Using the
2013 ESP, the equivalent figure is 975.8 deaths per 100,000, an 85% increase (Table 1). More
than two thirds of the leading causes of death in England and Wales show large increases in
ASRs.
Table 1: Age standardised mortality rates per 100,000, all causes, England and Wales 2011,
using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP
Using 1976 ESP
Using 2013 ESP
Difference
Percent change
Persons
526.9
975.8
448.9
85
Males
623.7
1163.3
539.5
86
Females
445.8
836.5
390.7
88
Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures
The generally higher ASRs produced using the 2013 ESP are very noticeable, but more important
in practice is the way in which different causes of death are affected to differing extents. Table 2
shows selected causes of death which have large increases.
As might be expected, causes of death which predominantly affect older ages show the greatest
increase in rates, with ASRs for dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, influenza and pneumonia, and
cerebrovascular disease more than doubling (Table 2).
3
Office for National Statistics. Implementation of the 2013 European Standard Population:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations/consultations/implementation-of-the-2013european-standard-population/index.html
4
Office for National Statistics. Age-standardised mortality rate calculation template:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/user-guidance/health-and-life-events/age-standardised-mortality-ratecalculation-template.xls
5
Office for National Statistics. Age-standardised mortality rate calculation template 2013:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/user-guidance/health-and-life-events/age-standardised-mortalityrate-calculation-template-2013.xls
Office for National Statistics
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Revision of the European Standard Population (ESP) – effect on UK official statistics
Causes of death which mainly occur at younger ages show less increase, or no significant change.
There is no substantial change in the mortality rates from drowning, accidental poisoning or
homicide. Some mortality statistics are limited to deaths at certain ages, for instance under 75
years, and the effect of the change on these figures will not be exactly the same as on figures
based on deaths at all ages.
Table 2: Age standardised mortality rates per 100,000 persons, selected causes, England
and Wales 2011, using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP
Using 1976
ESP
Using 2013
ESP
Percent
change
Dementia and Alzheimer's disease
31.9
76.8
141
Influenza and pneumonia
23.8
52.7
121
Cerebrovascular diseases
34.3
72.6
112
Chronic lower respiratory diseases
27.8
53.8
94
Ischaemic heart disease
68.6
130.5
90
Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus
and lung
36.6
61.0
67
Cause of death
Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures
Cancer incidence rates
There is a significant increase in many age standardised cancer incidence rates using the 2013
ESP. The incidence rate in England in 2010 for all cancer sites combined was 422.4 per 100,000
males using the 1976 ESP, but rises to 658.2 per 100,000 using the 2013 ESP. The impact is
smaller for females, with the rate increasing from 369.7 to 521.0 per 100,000 (Table 3).
Table 3: Age standardised cancer incidence rates per 100,000, all cancers1, England 2011,
using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP
Using 1976 ESP
Using 2013 ESP
Difference
Percent change
Males
423.0
660.9
237.8
56.2
Females
372.2
526.9
154.7
41.6
1. Excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (ICD-10 C44)
Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures
The percentage increase varies by cancer site, with a small decrease (-3%) for testicular cancer, a
cancer more common in younger men (Table 4). The highest increases are found in bladder,
stomach, colorectal and lung cancer for both men and women (increases between 58% and 76%).
The main female cancers (uterus, ovary and breast) show increases of 38%, 36% and 30%
respectively.
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Revision of the European Standard Population (ESP) – effect on UK official statistics
Table 4: Age standardised cancer incidence rates per 100,000, selected cancers, England
2011, using the 1976 ESP and 2013 ESP
Cancer site
Using 1976
ESP
Using 2013
ESP
Percentage
Change
Bladder
18.1
31.8
76
Stomach
10.8
18.4
70
Lung
56.1
93.5
67
106.7
170.9
60
Colorectal
56.7
90.8
60
Pancreas
10.7
17.4
63
Oesophagus
14.1
22.2
57
Bladder
5.4
9.5
75
Stomach
4.4
7.5
70
39.0
61.9
59
124.8
162.4
30
Colorectal
36.8
58.5
59
Pancreas
8.7
14.3
64
Oesophagus
5.2
8.6
64
Male
Prostate
Female
Lung
Breast
Source: Office for National Statistics: provisional figures
Further information
Further information and guidance relating to the revision of the ESP can be found in the Guidance
and methodology area of the ONS website, under the Health and Life Events section. The full web
address (URL) is: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/user-guidance/health-and-lifeevents/revised-european-standard-population-2013--2013-esp-/index.html
Contact:
Myer Glickman
myer.glickman@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Tel: 01633 455868
Office for National Statistics
Information note
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