Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population a. Check for nonnormality Probability Plot of Ex_8.1 Normal 99 Mean StDev N AD P-Value 95 90 7 2.268 8 0.185 0.865 80 Percent 8.1 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 Ex_8.1 The distribution shows no significant evidence of nonnormality. b. Point estimate of the population mean that is unbiased, efficient and consistent. X i 560 = 7.0 Unbiased point estimator is the sample mean: X n 8 c. The unbiased point estimate of the variance of the sample mean: s 2 (2.268) 2 Var ( X ) .64298 n 8 164 Statistics for Business & Economics, 6th edition 8.2 a. Evidence of non-normality? Probability Plot of Homes_Ex8.2 Normal 99 Mean StDev N AD P-Value 95 90 101.4 14.20 8 0.194 0.837 Percent 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 60 70 80 90 100 110 Homes_Ex8.2 120 130 140 No evidence of non-normality. b. The minimum variance unbiased point estimator of the population X i 560 = 101.375 mean is the sample mean: X n 8 c. The unbiased point estimate of the variance of the sample mean: s 2 201.6964 2 s 2 201.6964 ˆ (X ) Var ( X ) ; Var 25.2121 n n 8 x 3 d. pˆ .375 n 8 8.3 n = 10 economists forecast for percentage growth in real GDP in the next year Descriptive Statistics: RGDP_Ex8.3 Variable RGDP_Ex8.3 N 10 N* 0 Variable RGDP_Ex8.3 Minimum 2.2000 Mean 2.5700 Q1 2.4000 SE Mean 0.0716 TrMean 2.5625 StDev 0.2263 Variance 0.0512 Median 2.5500 Q3 2.7250 Maximum 3.0000 Range 0.8000 CoefVar 8.81 IQR 0.3250 a. Unbiased point estimator of the population mean is the sample mean: X i 2.57 X n b. The unbiased point estimate of the population variance: s 2 .0512 c. Unbiased point estimate of the variance of the sample mean s 2 .0512 Var ( X ) .00512 n 10 Sum 25.7000 Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population x 7 .70 n 10 e. Unbiased estimate of the variance of the sample proportion: pˆ (1 pˆ ) .7(1 .7) Var ( pˆ ) .021 n 10 d. Unbiased estimate of the population proportion: pˆ 8.4 n = 12 employees. Number of hours of overtime worked in the last month: a. Unbiased point estimator of the population mean is the sample mean: X i 24.42 X n b. The unbiased point estimate of the population variance: s 2 85.72 c. Unbiased point estimate of the variance of the sample mean s 2 85.72 Var ( X ) 7.1433 n 12 x 3 d. Unbiased estimate of the population proportion: pˆ .25 n 12 e. Unbiased estimate of the variance of the sample proportion: pˆ (1 pˆ ) .25(1 .25) Var ( pˆ ) .015625 n 12 a. Check each variable for normal distribution: Normal Probability Plot .999 .99 .95 Probability 8.5 .80 .50 .20 .05 .01 .001 45 50 55 Meals Average: 50.1 StDev: 2.46842 N: 30 Anderson-Darling Normality Test A-Squared: 0.413 P-Value: 0.318 165 Statistics for Business & Economics, 6th edition Normal Probability Plot .999 .99 Probability .95 .80 .50 .20 .05 .01 .001 15 20 25 Attendance Average: 21.24 StDev: 2.50466 N: 25 Anderson-Darling Normality Test A-Squared: 0.377 P-Value: 0.383 Normal Probability Plot .999 .99 .95 Probability 166 .80 .50 .20 .05 .01 .001 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Ages Average: 12.24 StDev: 1.96384 N: 25 Anderson-Darling Normality Test A-Squared: 0.569 P-Value: 0.126 No evidence of non-normality in Meals, Attendance or Ages Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population 167 b. Unbiased estimates of population mean and variance: Descriptive Statistics: Meals, Attendance, Ages Variable Mean Meals 0.451 Attendan 0.501 Ages 0.393 Variable Meals Attendan Ages N Mean Median TrMean StDev 30 50.100 50.000 50.192 2.468 25 21.240 21.000 21.348 2.505 25 12.240 12.000 12.217 1.964 Minimum 45.000 15.000 9.000 Maximum 55.000 25.000 16.000 Q1 48.000 19.500 10.000 Q3 52.000 23.500 14.000 Variable Unbiased estimate of mean Unbiased estimate of variance (s2) Meals 50.100 (2.468)2 = 6.0910 Attendance 21.240 (2.505)2 = 6.2750 Ages 12.240 (1.964)2 = 3.8573 8.6 1 1 E ( X1 ) E( X 2 ) 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 E (Y ) E ( X 1 ) E ( X 2 ) 4 4 4 4 1 2 2 E (Z ) E ( X1 ) E ( X 2 ) 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 12 2 Var ( X 1 ) Var ( X 2 ) b. Var ( X ) n 4 4 2 8 4 2 1 9 5 Var (Y ) Var ( X 1 ) Var ( X 2 ) 16 16 8 2 1 4 5 Var ( Z ) Var ( X 1 ) Var ( X 2 ) 9 9 9 X is most efficient since Var ( X ) Var (Y ) Var ( Z ) Var (Y ) 5 c. Relative efficiency between Y and X : 2.5 Var ( X ) 2 Var ( Z ) 20 Relative efficiency between Z and X : 2.222 Var ( X ) 9 a. E ( X ) SE 168 Statistics for Business & Economics, 6th edition 8.7 a. Evidence of non-normality? Normal Probability Plot for Leak Rates ( ML Estimates 99 ML Estimates 95 Mean 0.0515 StDev 0.0216428 90 Goodness of Fit Percent 80 AD* 70 60 50 40 30 0.596 20 10 5 1 0.00 0.05 0.10 Data No evidence of nonnormality exists. b. The minimum variance unbiased point estimator of the population X i .0515 mean is the sample mean: X n c. The unbiased point estimate of the variance of the sample mean: s 2 x (.0216428)2 .0004684 Var ( X ) 8.8 2 n ˆ (X ) ; Var s 2 .0004684 .00000937 n 50 a. Evidence of non-normality? No evidence of the data distribution coming from a non-normal population b. The minimum variance unbiased point estimator of the population X i 3.8079 mean is the sample mean: X n Descriptive Statistics: Volumes Variable Mean Volumes 0.0118 Variable Volumes N Mean Median TrMean StDev 75 3.8079 3.7900 3.8054 0.1024 Minimum 3.5700 Maximum 4.1100 Q1 3.7400 Q3 3.8700 SE Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population c. Minimum variance unbiased point estimate of the population variance is the sample variance s2 = .0105 8.9 Reliability factor for each of the following: a. 96% confidence level: z 2 = +/- 2.05 b. 88% confidence level: z 2 = +/- 1.56 c. 85% confidence level: z 2 = +/- 1.44 d. .07 z 2 = +/- 1.81 e. 2 = .07 z 2 = +/- 1.48 8.10 Calculate the margin of error to estimate the population mean a. 98% confidence level; n = 64, variance = 144 = 3.495 = 2.33 12 ME z 2 n 64 b. 99% confidence interval, n=120; standard deviation = 100 = 23.552 ME z 2 = 2.58 100 n 120 8.11 Calculate the width to estimate the population mean, for a. 90% confidence level, n = 100, variance = 169 = 4.277 = 2 1.645 13 width = 2ME = 2 z 2 100 n b. 95% confidence interval, n = 120, standard deviation = 25 = 8.9461 = 2 1.96 25 width = 2ME = 2 z 2 120 n 8.12 Calculate the LCL and UCL = 40.2 to 59.8 a. x z 2 = 50 1.96 40 n 64 = 81.56 to 88.44 b. x z 2 = 85 2.58 20 n 225 = 506.2652 to 513.73478 c. x z 2 = 510 1.645 50 n 485 8.13 a. n 9, x 187.9, 32.4, z.10 1.28 187.9 1.28(32.4/3) = 174.076 up to 201.724 b. 210.0 – 187.9 = 22.1 = z / 2 (32.4 / 3), z / 2 2.05 2[1 Fz (2.05)] .0404 100(1-.0404)% = 95.96% 169 170 Statistics for Business & Economics, 6th edition 8.14 a. Find the reliability factor for 92% confidence level: z 2 = +/- 1.75 b. Calculate the standard error of the mean = .63246 6 n 90 c. Calculate the width of the 92% confidence interval for the population mean = 2.2136 = 2 1.75 6 width = 2ME = 2 z 2 90 n 8.15 a. n 25, x 2.90, .45, z.025 1.96 = 2.90 1.96(.45/5) = 2.7236 up to 3.0764 x z n b. 2.99 – 2.90 = .09 = z / 2 (.45 / 5), z / 2 1 2[1 Fz (1)] .3174 100(1-.3174)% = 68.26% 8.16 a. n 16, x 4.07, .12, z.005 2.58 4.07 2.58(.12/4) = 3.9926 up to 4.1474 b. narrower since the z score for a 95% confidence interval is smaller than the z score for the 99% confidence interval c. narrower due to the smaller standard error d. wider due to the larger standard error 8.17 Find the reliability factor tv , a. b. c. d. 2 n = 20, 90% confidence level; t = 1.729 n = 7, 98% confidence level; t = 3.143 n = 16, 95% confidence level; t = 2.131 n = 23, 99% confidence level; t = 2.819 8.18 Find the ME a. n = 20, 90% confidence level, s = 36 = 13.9182 ME t 2 s = ME 1.729 36 n 120 b. n = 7, 98% confidence level, s = 16 ME t 2 s = ME 3.143 16 = 19.007 n 7 c. n = 16, 99% confidence level, x1 = 15, x2 = 17, x3 = 13, x4 = 11, x5 = 14 = 7.5407 x 14, s 2.58199 ME 5.841 2.58199 4 Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population 8.19 Time spent driving to work for n = 5 people Descriptive Statistics: Driving_Ex8.19 Variable Sum Driving_Ex8.19 192.00 N N* Mean SE Mean TrMean StDev Variance CoefVar 5 0 38.40 2.66 * 5.94 35.30 15.47 Variable Driving_Ex8.19 Minimum 30.00 Q1 32.50 Median 40.00 Q3 43.50 Maximum 45.00 Range 15.00 IQR 11.00 a. Calculate the standard error s 2.6571 5.94138 n 5 b. Find the value of t for the 95% confidence interval tv , 2 = 2.776 c. Calculate the width for a 95% confidence interval for the population mean ME t 2 s = ME 2.776 5.94138 = 14.752 n 5 8.20 Find the LCL and UCL for each of the following: a. alpha = .05, n = 25, sample mean = 560, s = 45 = 560 2.064 45 = 541.424 to 578.576 x t 2 s n 25 b. alpha/2 = .05, n = 9, sample mean = 160, sample variance = 36 = 160 1.860 6 = 156.28 to 163.72 x t 2 s n 9 c. 1 = .98, n = 22, sample mean = 58, s = 15 = 58 2.518 15 = 49.9474 to 66.0526 x t 2 s n 22 8.21 Calculate the margin of error to estimate the population mean for: a. 98% confidence level; n = 64, sample variance = 144 = 3.585 ME t 2 s = ME 2.390 12 n 64 b. 99% confidence level; n = 120, sample standard deviation = 100 = 24.2824 ME t 2 s = ME 2.660 100 n 120 c. 95% confidence level; n = 200, sample standard deviation = 40 = 5.65685 ME t 2 s = ME 2.000 40 n 200 171 172 Statistics for Business & Economics, 6th edition 8.22 Calculate the width for each of the following: a. alpha = 0.05, n = 6, s = 40 w 2ME 2t 2 s 2 2.571 40 2(41.98425) 83.9685 n 6 b. alpha = 0.01, n = 22, sample variance = 400 2(12.07142) 24.1428 w 2ME 2t 2 s 2 2.831 20 n 22 c. alpha = 0.10, n = 25, s = 50 2(17.11) 34.22 w 2ME 2t 2 s 2 1.711 50 n 25 8.23 a. 95% confidence interval: Results for: TOC.xls One-Sample T: Leak Rates (cc/sec.) Variable Leak Rates ( N 50 Mean 0.05150 StDev 0.02186 SE Mean 0.00309 95.0% CI ( 0.04529, 0.05771) b. 98% confidence interval: One-Sample T: Leak Rates (cc/sec.) Variable Leak Rates ( N 50 Mean 0.05150 StDev 0.02186 SE Mean 0.00309 98.0% CI ( 0.04406, 0.05894) 8.24 a. Results for: Sugar.xls Descriptive Statistics: Weights Variable Mean Weights 0.95 Variable Weights N Mean Median TrMean StDev 100 520.95 518.75 520.52 9.45 Minimum 504.70 Maximum 544.80 Q1 513.80 Q3 527.28 SE 90% confidence interval: Results for: Sugar.xls One-Sample T: Weights Variable Weights N 100 Mean 520.948 StDev 9.451 SE Mean 0.945 90.0% CI ( 519.379, 522.517) b. narrower since a smaller value of z will be used in generating the 80% confidence interval. 8.25 n 9, x 157.82, s 38.89, t8,.025 2.306 margin of error: 2.306(38.89/3) = 29.8934 8.26 n 7, x 74.7143, s 6.3957, t6,.025 2.447 margin of error: 2.447(6.3957/ 7 ) = 5.9152 Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population 8.27 a. n 10, x 15.90, s 5.30, t9,.005 3.25 15.90 3.25(5.30/ 10 ) = 10.453 up to 21.347 b. narrower since the t-score will be smaller for a 90% confidence interval than for a 99% confidence interval 8.28 n 25, x 42, 740, s 4, 780, t24,.05 1.711 42,740 1.711(4780/5) = $41,104.28 up to $44,375.72 8.29 n 9, x 16.222, s 4.790, t8,.10 1.86 We must assume a normally distributed population 16.222 1.86(4.790/3) = 13.252 up to 19.192 8.30 Find the standard error of the proportion for pˆ (1 pˆ ) .3(.7) a. n = 250, p̂ = 0.3 = .02898 n 250 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .45(.55) b. n = 175, p̂ = 0.45 = .03761 n 175 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .05(.95) c. n = 400, p̂ = 0.05 = .010897 n 400 8.31 Find the margin of error for a. n = 250, p̂ = 0.3, α = .05 z 2 b. n = 175, p̂ = 0.45, α = .08 z 2 c. n = 400, p̂ = 0.05, α = .04 z 2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .3(.7) = .056806 1.96 n 250 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .45(.55) = .05810 1.75 n 175 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .05(.95) = .02234 2.05 n 400 8.32 Find the confidence level for estimating the population proportion for a. 92.5% confidence level; n = 650, p̂ = .10 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .10(1 .10) = .10 1.78 = .079055 to .120945 n 650 b. 99% confidence level; n = 140, p̂ = .01 pˆ z 2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .01(1 .01) = .01 2.58 = 0.0 to .031696 n 140 c. alpha = .09; n = 365, p̂ = .50 pˆ z 2 pˆ z 2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .5(.5) = .50 1.70 = .4555 to .5445 n 650 173 174 8.33 8.34 Statistics for Business & Economics, 6th edition n = 142, 87 answered GMAT or GRE is ‘very important’. 95% confidence interval for the population proportion: .61268(1 .61268) pˆ (1 pˆ ) = .61268 1.96 = .53255 to .6928 pˆ z 2 142 n n 95, pˆ 67 / 95 .7053, z.005 2.58 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .7053(.2947) = .7053 (2.58) = n 95 99% confidence interval: .5846 up to .8260 pˆ z / 2 8.35 a. unbiased point estimate of proportion: Tally for Discrete Variables: Adequate Variety Adequate Variety 1 2 N= Count CumCnt 135 135 221 356 356 Percent CumPct 37.92 37.92 62.08 100.00 x 135 .3792 n 356 b. 90% confidence interval: n 356, pˆ 135 / 356 .3792, z.05 1.645 pˆ pˆ (1 pˆ ) = .3792 (1.645) .3792(.6208) / 356 = n .3369 up to .4215 pˆ z / 2 8.36 n 320, pˆ 80 / 320 .25, z.025 1.96 pˆ (1 pˆ ) = .25 (1.96) .25(.75) / 320 = n 95% confidence interval: .2026 up to .2974 pˆ z / 2 8.37 n 400, pˆ 320 / 400 .80, z.01 2.326 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .80(1 .80) = .80 2.326 = .75348 n 400 b. width of a 90% confidence interval pˆ (1 pˆ ) .8(1 .8) w 2ME 2 z 2 2 1.645 2(.0329) .0658 n 400 a. LCL = pˆ z / 2 Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population 8.38 width = .545-.445 = .100; ME = 0.05 pˆ 0.495 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .495(.505) .0355 n 198 .05 = z / 2 (.0355), z / 2 1.41 2[1 Fz (1.41)] .0793 100(1-.1586)% = 84.14% 8.39 n 420, pˆ 223/ 420 .5310, z.025 1.96 pˆ (1 pˆ ) = .5310 (1.96) .5310(.4690) / 420 = n 95% confidence interval: .4833 up to .5787 The margin of error is .0477 pˆ z / 2 8.40 n 246, pˆ 40 / 246 .1626, z.01 2.326 pˆ (1 pˆ ) = .1626 (2.326) .1626(.8374) / 246 = n 98% confidence interval: .1079 up to .2173 pˆ z / 2 8.41 a. n 246, pˆ 232 / 246 .9431, z.01 2.326 pˆ (1 pˆ ) = .9431 (2.326) .9431(.0569) / 246 = n 98% confidence interval: .9087 up to .9775 b. n 246, pˆ 10 / 246 .0407, z.01 2.326 pˆ z / 2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) = .0407 (2.326) .0407(.9593) / 246 = n 98% confidence interval: .0114 up to .0699 pˆ z / 2 8.42 a. n 10, x 257, s 37.2, t9,.05 1.833 = 257 1.833(37.2/ 10 ) = 235.4318 up to 278.5628 x t 2 s n assume that the population is normally distributed b. 95% and 98% confidence intervals: = 257 2.262(37.2/ 10 ) = 230.39 up to 283.61 [95%]: x t 2 s n = 257 2.821(37.2/ 10 ) = 223.815 up to [98%]: x t 2 s n 290.185 175 176 Statistics for Business & Economics, 6th edition n 16, x 150, s 12, t15,.025 2.131 8.43 = 150 2.131(12/4) = 143.607 up to 156.393 x t 2 s n It is recommended that he stock 157 gallons. n 50, x 30, s 4.2, z.05 1.645 8.44 = 30 1.645(4.2/ 50 ) = 29.0229 up to 30.9771 8.45 Results from Minitab: Descriptive Statistics: Passengers8_45 Variable Mean Passenge 3.46 Variable Passenge N Mean Median TrMean StDev 50 136.22 141.00 136.75 24.44 Minimum 86.00 Maximum 180.00 Q1 118.50 Q3 152.00 One-Sample T: Passengers8_45 Variable Passengers8_ N 50 Mean 136.22 StDev 24.44 SE Mean 3.46 ( 95.0% CI 129.27, 143.17) 95% confidence interval: 129.27 up to 143.17 8.46 a. Use a 5% risk. Incorrect labels = 8/48 = 0.1667 0.1667(0.8333) 0.1667 1.96 0.1667 0.1054 = 0.0613 up to 0.2721 48 b. For a 90% confidence interval, 0.1667(0.8333) 0.1667 1.645 0.1667 0.0885 = 0.0782 up to 48 0.2552 8.47 a. The minimum variance unbiased point estimator of the population X i 27 3.375. The unbiased point mean is the sample mean: X n 8 2 xi nx 2 94.62 8(3.375)2 .4993 estimate of the variance: s 2 n 1 7 x 3 b. pˆ .375 n 8 8.48 3.69 – 3.59 = 0.10 = z / 2 (1.045/ 457), z / 2 2.05 2[1 Fz (2.05)] .0404 100(1-.0404)% = 95.96% SE Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population 8.49 n 174, x 6.06, s 1.43 6.16 – 6.06 = .1 = z / 2 (1.43/ 174), z / 2 .922 2[1 Fz (.92)] .3576 100(1-.3576)% = 64.24% 8.50 n = 33 accounting students who recorded study time a. An unbiased, consistent, and efficient estimator of the population mean is the sample mean x = 8.545 b. Find the sampling error for a 95% confidence interval; Using degrees of freedom = 30, = 1.3568 ME 2.042 3.817 33 8.51 n = 25 patient records – the average length of stay is 6 days with a standard deviation of 1.8 days a. find the reliability factor for a 95% interval estimate t / 2 2.064 b. Find the LCL for a 99% confidence interval estimate of the population mean . The LCL = 5.257 ME t 2 s = 6 2.064 1.8 n 25 8.52 n = 250, x = 100 a. Find the standard error to estimate population proportion of first timers pˆ (1 pˆ ) .4(1 .4) = .03098 n 250 b. Find the sampling error. Since no confidence level is specified, we find the sampling error (Margin of Error) for a 95% confidence interval. ME = 1.96 (0.03098) = 0.0607 c. For a 92% confidence interval, ME = 1.75 (0.03098) = 0.05422 0.40 .05422 giving 0.3457 up to 0.4542 8.53 8.54 a. 90% confidence interval reliability factor = t / 2 1.729 b. Find the LCL for a 99% confidence interval LCL = 60.75 – 2.861 21.83159 = 46.78 or approximately 47 20 passengers. a. Find a 95% confidence interval estimate for the population proportion of students who would like supplements in their smoothies. 177 178 Statistics for Business & Economics, 6th edition Tally for Discrete Variables: Supplements, Health Consciousness Supplements No 0 Yes 1 N= n 113, Count 42 71 113 Percent 37.17 62.83 Health Consciousness Very 1 Moderately 2 Slight 3 Not Very 4 N= Count 29 55 20 9 113 Percent 25.66 48.67 17.70 7.96 pˆ 71/113 .62832, z.05 1.96 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .62832(1 .62832) = .62832 1.96 n 113 0.0891 = 0.5392 up to 0.71742. pˆ z / 2 = 0.62832 ± b. pˆ 29 / 113 0.2566 For 98% confidence level, pˆ 2.33 (0.2566)(1 0.2566) 0.2566 0.09573 113 or 0.1609 up to 0.3523 c. pˆ 77 / 113 0.6814 0.6814 1.645 (0.6814)(1 0.6814) 0.6814 0.0721 or 0.6093 up to 113 0.7535 8.55 n = 100 students at a small university. a. Estimate the population grade point average with 95% confidence level One-Sample T: GPA Variable GPA N 100 Mean 3.12800 StDev 0.36184 SE Mean 0.03618 95% CI (3.05620, 3.19980) b. Estimate the population proportion of students who were very dissatisfied (code 1) or moderately dissatisfied (code 2) with parking. Use a 90% confidence level. Tally for Discrete Variables: Parking Parking 1 2 3 4 5 N= Count 19 26 18 18 19 100 n 100, Percent 19.00 26.00 18.00 18.00 19.00 pˆ 45 /100 .45, z.05 1.645 , pˆ z / 2 .45 1.645 pˆ (1 pˆ ) n .45(1 .45) = .45 ± .08184 = .368162 up to .53184 100 c. Estimate the proportion of students who were at least moderately satisfied (codes 4 and 5) with on-campus food service Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population 179 Tally for Discrete Variables: Dining Dining 1 2 3 4 5 N= Count 14 26 21 20 19 100 Percent 14.00 26.00 21.00 20.00 19.00 n 100, pˆ 39 /100 .39, z.05 1.645 pˆ z / 2 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .39(1 .39) = .39 1.645 = .39 ± .08023 = .30977 up n 100 to .47023. 8.56 a. Estimate the average age of the store’s customers by the sample mean xi 6310 50.48 x n 125 To find a confidence interval estimate we will assume a 95% confidence level: 13.06 50.48 1.96 50.48 2.29 ; 48.19 up to 52.77 years 125 b. Estimate the population proportion of customers dissatisfied with the delivery system Tally for Discrete Variables: Dissatisfied with Delivery Dissatisfied with Delivery 1 2 N= Count 9 116 125 Percent 7.20 92.80 pˆ 9 /125 .072 ; Assuming a 95% confidence level, we find: 0.072 1.96 (0.072)(1 0.072) 0.072 0.0453 or 0.0267 up to 0.1173 125 c. Estimate the population mean amount charged to a Visa credit card Descriptive Statistics: Cost of Flowers Variable Cost of Flowers Method of Payment American Express Cash Master Card Other Visa Mean 52.99 51.34 54.58 53.42 52.65 SE Mean 2.23 4.05 3.11 2.99 2.04 TrMean 52.83 51.46 54.43 53.72 52.58 StDev 10.68 16.19 15.25 14.33 12.71 The population mean can be estimated by the sample mean amount charged to a Visa credit card = $52.65. 8.57 n = 500 motor vehicle registrations, 200 were mailed, 160 paid in person, remainder paid on-line. a. Estimate the population proportion to pay for vehicle registration renewals in person, use a 90% confidence level. Median 50.55 50.55 55.49 54.85 50.65 180 Statistics for Business & Economics, 6th edition Test and CI for One Proportion Test of p = 0.5 vs p not = 0.5 Sample X N Sample p 90% CI 1 160 500 0.320000 (0.285686, 0.354314) The 90% confidence interval is from 28.56856% up to 35.4314% b. Estimate the population proportion of on-line renewals, use 95% confidence. Test and CI for One Proportion Test of p = 0.5 vs p not = 0.5 Sample X N Sample p 95% CI 1 140 500 0.280000 (0.240644, 0.319356) The 95% confidence interval is from 24.0644% up to 31.9356% 8.58 From the data in 8.57, find the confidence level if the interval extends from 0.34 up to 0.46. ME = ½ the width of the confidence interval. 0.46 – 0.34 = 0.12 / 2 = 0.06 pˆ (1 pˆ ) or ME z 2 n (0.4)(0.6) 0.06 z 2 500 Solving for z: z 2 2.74 Area from the z-table = .4969 x 2 = .9938. The confidence level is 99.38% 8.59 From the data in 8.57, find the confidence level if the interval extends from 23.7% up to 32.3%. ME = ½ the width of the confidence interval. .323 – .237 = .086 / 2 = .043 and pˆ .28 pˆ (1 pˆ ) .28(1 .28) solving for z: z 2 2.14 .043 z 2 n 500 Area from the z-table = .4838 x 2 = .9676. The confidence level is 96.76% ME z 2 8.60 a. What is the margin of error for a 99% confidence interval pˆ (1 pˆ ) pˆ x 250 .7143 , ME z 2 n 350 n .7143(1 .7143) ME 2.58 350 ME = .0623 = Chapter 8: Estimation: Single Population b. Is the margin of error for a 95% confidence larger, smaller or the same as the 99% confidence level? The margin of error will be smaller (more precise) for a lower confidence level. The difference in the equation is the value for z which would drop from 2.58 down to 1.96. 8.61 Compute the 98% confidence interval of the mean age of on-line renewal users. n= 460, sample mean = 42.6, s = 5.4. = 42.6 ± .58664 = 42.0134 up to = 42.6 2.33 5.4 x t 2 s n 460 43.18664 181