Anti-Immigrant Nativism as
Sons of the Soil Conflict
The role of immigration and ethnic change
in stimulating ethno-nationalism in England
Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, U. London
e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; @epkaufm
Sons of the Soil
Residence and Rebellion: Mean Maximum Rebellion Scores by Category of Residence
Has the Group
Been in the
Country Since
1800?
Does the Group
have a
Regional Base?
YES
NO
2.9
1
(n=248)
(n=50)
2.9
1.1
(n=276)
(n=123)
N.B. A score of 1 indicates no rebellion.
N refers to number of such groups in the MAR dataset. Source: Fearon and Laitin 2011
Sons of the Soil Conflicts
• Indigenousness (Eriksen 1993)
• Dominant ethnicity; dominant ethnonationalism (Kaufmann 2004)
• Ethno-nationalism includes a concern with
individual migration/change
• Autochthony: internal migration across ethnic
boundaries, into ‘our’ land
• West: international migration across
ethnic/national boundaries, into ‘our’ land
Other White
British:
Scots, Welsh,
Irish, Ulster
British
White British: 77% of
England
Britain
England:
84% of
Britain
English ethnic core: 73% of
all people in England
Cultural
Liberalism
Individualism
-
-
English Ethnic
Nationalism
Integration/
Assimilation/
Boundary Shift
+
Immigration and
Minority Growth
Source: Ipsos MORI, 'Attitudes to Immigration' (forthcoming). Issues Index question: “What do you see as the most/other important issues facing
Britain today?”. Issues Index base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home. Home
Office statistics based on ‘Year ending’.
Catholic % and Female Orange Membership,
Scotland, 1855-2001
18
10000
16
9000
8000
14
7000
% Catholic
12
6000
10
5000
8
4000
6
4
2
0
% Catholic
Female Orange
Members
3000
2000
1000
0
Locality Matters
• Nation could be the local writ large (Applegate
1990; Confino 1997; Zimmer 2013)
• Local could be a passive space inscribed by
national discourses
• But then, why do opinions on national issues
vary by locale, AND
• Why are demographic changes to the nation
experienced so differently by locale?
Local Realities Shape
Perceptions of the Nation
(Kaufmann 2008)
Nation
Local
White British opposition to immigration,
by share of immigrants in ward
90.0%
85.0%
80.0%
75.0%
Whites
White Working Class
70.0%
65.0%
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
15+%
Immigrants
10-15%
5-10%
2-5%
Less than 2%
immigrants
Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey (Office for National Statistics and
Home Office 2011)
Table 2. White British Discomfort Threshold for Minority Share, Ward-level, 2013
Source: Yougov 2013.
Share of minorities
beyond which
person would
become
uncomfortable
% of Respondents
Cumulative
Over
75%
5.6%
5.6%
75
3.4%
9.0%
66
6.8%
15.8%
50
19.0%
34.8%
25
16.5%
51.3%
17
5.7%
57.0%
10
13.9%
70.9%
5
11.3%
82.2%
2
6.3%
88.6%
1
2.2%
90.7%
Less than 1%
1.7%
92.4%
No minorities
3.1%
95.5%
Don't know
4.5%
100.0%
Number of
• 'When do you
think you would
start to feel
uncomfortable
about the number
of people from
ethnic
minorities…
• A) ‘living in your
neighbourhood’?
• B) ‘living in
Britain’?
• .60 correlation
Individualism
• Mobility: Renter or recent mover v. long-term
resident
• Living in a transient area
• Living in an urban area
• Higher Education/Student
• Higher social class
• Importance of occupation for identity vs.
importance of ethnicity/nation
• Young
Desire to reduce migration,
by class and proportion of renters, among
ward residents, white British only
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Upper
Middle
Working
Base
Least
Renters
2
3
4
Most
Renters
Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey (Office for National Statistics and Home Office
2010, 2011)
Predictors of Desire to Reduce Immigration, MSOA level,
White British Only
Deprivation of MSOA
Population Density in MSOA
% Minorities (MSOA)
% Minorities (Local Authority)
Resident over 10 years (ref: less than…
London
Age
renter
living in social housing
Student (upper ref.)
Never worked (upper ref.)
Working Class (upper ref.)
Lower Supervisory Class (upper ref)
Middle Class (upper ref.)
No children (children ref.)
single (couple ref.)
No Qualifications
Income
Male
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
predictive power (z-score)
3
5
7
Predictors of Opposition to Immigration, White British only
Do not trust people
English national identifier
Tabloid reader
Frequency of mixing w/other ethnic groups
All friends are white British
Broadsheet reader
Ward population density
Lower Supervisory class
Nation important for self-identity
Middle Class
Ward transience
Single
Local Authority minority %
No qualifications
Ward minority %
Age
-8
-3
2
Predictive power (z score)
7
12
Predicted Probabilities for
transience and diversity
Predicted Probability of Favouring Reduction
90
85
80
75
70
65
Percentage minority
population 2011
60
Percentage population churn
2001
55
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Distribution of Independent Variable (categories based on nested means
method)
Source: Harris 2012
Ward Characteristics Significantly Associated with White BNP voting,
Greater London Authority election, 2008
0.40
S
t
d
.
B
e
t
a
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Source: Harris 2012 (census and election statistics)
Predictors of UKIP and BNP/Far Right
Support 2009-12
Lower Education
Lower class
Ward Deprivation
Ward Minority Increase
LA % Minority
English identifier
Low social trust
UKIP
Ward % White Other
Far Right (mainly BNP)
Income
Ward Population Density
Ward % Renters
Ward % Minority
Female
Age
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
z-score
Source: Understanding Society survey, waves 1-3, 2009-12
7
9
Predictors of BNP and UKIP Combined Vote among
whites, Ward level, Local Elections 2010-12
Local Authority (LA) minority increase
% Minorities in LA
2012
% Agricultural sector
2011
2010
% Minorities in ward
% Degrees
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Predictive power (t-stat)
Source: Election data from Plymouth Elections Centre Data; ONS 2013.
http://www1.plymouth.ac.uk/research/ceres/TEC/thecentre/Pages/default.aspx
4
White Flight in Britain?
Moved To Whiter
Ward past 10 yrs
Moved To More
Diverse Ward past
10 yrs
Sample
Not White British
53%
47%
47
White British
62%
38%
239
Total
60%
40%
286
Movers
from Diversity
Movers
to Diversity
Stayer
Immigration: Increase or same
23%
25%
17%
Immigration: reduce a little
16%
21%
19%
Immigration: reduce a lot
60%
54%
64%
Number of cases
146
89
906
English Identity
43%
40%
50%
Conservative Party
28%
25%
28%
148
91
927
21%
14%
23%
139
83
903
Number of cases
Discomfort Interracial Marriage
Number of cases
Source: Yougov survey, August 2013 (Yougov 2013). N = 1638 white British adults. Note
that number of cases is slightly different for different groups of variables depending on
response rate
Conclusion
• Ethnic Change associated with English ethnic
nationalism
• Local ethnic dynamics matter for perceptions
of national issues
• Assimilation of European immigrants has
historically reduced English ethnic nationalism
• Local contact with and habituation to
minorities, rather than integration, reduces
opposition to immigration