2nd International Conference on Nuclear &
Renewable Energy Resources
4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
Nuclear Fusion EnergyMankind’s Giant Step Forward
Sing Lee 1,2,3*& Sor Heoh Saw 1,2
1Institute
for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, Australia
2INTI University College, 71800 Nilai, Malaysia
3Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore 637616
e-mails: leesing@optusnet.com.au;
sorheoh.saw@newinti.edu.my
CONTENT
 Energy as the most basic of resources
 Correlation of energy consumption & wealth
 Exponential growth of population & energy
consumption per capita-unsustainable
 Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy
source is developed
 Nuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forward
 Scenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion Energy
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
2
The most basic resource of Mankind is energy
 With energy food can be grown, manufactured,
processed
 With energy, materials can be mined,
manufactured, processed
 With energy, infrastructure can be built to provide
transport, communication, health and education
 With energy, Man can explore further afield, to the
far corners of the Earth even to extra-terrestrial
destinations
 With energy, life can be more comfortable, more in
conformity with Man as a civilised creature
 Not surprisingly, there is close correlation between
the wealth of a country and its energy consumption
per capita.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
3
Close correlation between economic wealth
and energy consumption per capita-2006.[2]
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
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Trends in population growth and energy
per capita consumption growth




AD 1500 World population (estimated) 450 million
AD 1900
1.6 billion [1]
End 2009
6.8 billion.
Past 100 years world population grew 4 times, whilst
energy consumption grew 10 times.
 Thus energy consumption grew faster than population
growth;
 in other words energy consumption per head grew
more than 2 times.
 This trend of per capita energy consumption growth
will continue as the rest of the world attempts to catch
up with the best standard of living in the world.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
5
Exponential Growth of Population
and Energy Consumption
 Past 100 years the doubling time of world
population was 50 years
 whilst the doubling time of energy consumption
was 30 years.
 Were this trend to continue, world population
would reach 27 billion in another hundred years
 whilst energy consumption would increase
another 10 times.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
6
Exponential Growth is Unsustainable
 Unsustainable; as the world is already near the
critical point when supply of energy barely
meets the demand.
 Energy resources are limited and supply
trends are estimated to peak in a few short
decades from now.
 This realisation underlies demographers’
projections that world population growth must
slow down in the near future.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
7
Estimates of world energy production
projected into the future in a scenario [3]
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
8
World population and projection
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
9
Current Debate misses the Point
 The current debates on the unsustainability of
population growth
energy consumption trends and
degradation of the environment
are important in raising public awareness
but
 Does not address the fundamental problem.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
10
We need one giant bold step
 To safeguard Mankind’s unimpeded
progress incremental moves are not
enough
 We need one giant bold step –
 Development of a new limitless source of
energy
 Clean non-polluting energy which will
not further aggravate the environment.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
11
Present Energy Resources not sufficient
 All energy resources are being depleted by the
exponential growth of population and of average
world per capita consumption
 New energy resources are not being developed fast
enough
 Renewables are too diffused: low energy collection
density and poor net energy output; projection of
renewables do not show the ability to sustain
historical rates of human population growth
combined with growth of per capita consumption.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
12
Incremental Steps Important but not
Sufficient- New Source needed
 What Mankind needs is not small
increments extracted from energy
conservationism or diffuse renewables
 What Mankind needs is one Giant Step
A new clean limitless energy source
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
13
Once-in-History Development
 This is not a pipe dream
 5 decades of research has gone into the processes of
controlling nuclear fusion on earth
 The stage is set for this energy revolution-this once
in history development
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
14
STARS
Nature’s Plasma Fusion Reactors
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
15
STARS
Nature’s Plasma Fusion Reactors
And a dream lies on the river
And a glamour veils the night
Whilst above the white stars quiver
With Fusion Burning-bright
(adapted from Ciribiribin)
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
16
Tokamak-planned nuclear fusion reactor
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
17
Magnetic Yoke to induce Plasma Current
Field Coils to Produce suitable Magnetic Field Configuration
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
18
What is a
Plasma?
Matter heated to high temperatures
becomes
Plasma
Four a
States
of Matter
Solid
Four States of Matter
Liquid
aseous
SOLID
LIQUID Plasma
GAS
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
PLASMA
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Characteristics of Plasma State
 Presence of electrons and ions
 Electrically conducting
 Interaction with electric & magnetic fields
 Control of ions & electrons: applications
 High energy densities/selective particle energies
-Cold plasmas: several eV’s; (1eV~104K)
-Hot plasmas: keV’s ;
(1keV~107K)
 Most of matter in Universe is in the Plasma State
(e.g. the STARS)
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
20
Collisions in a Plasma
The hotter the plasma is heated, the
more energetic are the collisions
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
21
Nuclear Fusion
If a Collision is sufficiently
energetic, nuclear fusion will occur
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
22
Isotopes of hydrogenFuel of Fusion
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
23
Release of energy in Fusion
1
H2 + 1H3
2He
4+
1
0n
+ 17.6 MeV
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
24
Natural Fusion Reactors vs
Fusion Experiments on Earth
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
25
JET (Joint European Torus) Project successfully
completed 2000; reached Q=0.6, better than planned
[Q is ratio of fusion energy generated/input energy to
start and heat the plasma]
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
26
Inside JET
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
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Conversion of mass into Energy
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
28
Fusion Energy Equivalent
50 cups water
 1 thimble heavy water,
extracted from 50 cups of
water
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
29
Summary of Conditions
Technological Targets:


T> 100 million K (10keV)
nt>1021 m-3-sec
n=1020 m-3, confined t=10s
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
30
Energy confinement time t
scales as some functions of:




Plasma current I
Major Radius R
Minor radius ‘a’
Toroidal Magnetic Field B
scaling law: t~Ipa Rb ag Bl
indices a,b,g,l all positive
To achieve sufficient value of ntT requires:
scaling of present generation of Tokamaks
upwards in terms of:
I R, ‘a’ and B
2nd
International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
31
Fusion Temperature attained
Fusion confinement one step away
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
32
International Collaboration to develop
Nuclear Fusion Energy-ITER
 1985- Geneva Superpower Summit:
 Reagan (US) & Gorbachev (Soviet Union) agreed on
project to develop new cleaner, sustainable source of
energy- Fusion energy
 ITER project was born
 Initial signatories: former Soviet Union, USA, European
Union (via EURATOM) & Japan
 Joined by P R China & R Korea in 2003 & India 2005
 ITER Agreement- signed in November 2006
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
33
ITER Construction has now started in
Cadarache, France
First plasma planned 2018
First D-T planned 2022
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
34
ITER A more detailed drawing
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
35
ITER (International Thermonuclear
Experimental Reactor)
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
36
Cooling and Heat Transfer
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
37
Q>10 and Beyond
ITER : to demonstrate: possible to produce
commercial energy from fusion.
Q= ratio of fusion power to input power.
Q ≥ 10 represents the scientific goal of ITER :
to deliver 10x the power it consumes.
From 50 MW input power to 500 MW of fusion
power - first fusion experiment to produce net
energy.
Beyond ITER will be DEMO (early 2030’s),
demonstration fusion power plant which will put
fusion power into the grid as early as 2040
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
38
Potential Next Step Fusion Burning Experiments
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
39
Unlimited clean energy supply
 no need to restrict
the growth of energy consumption,
a better standard of living or
the growth of population.
 Figure: energy consumption into the 22nd century.
 Such unlimited growth (curve 2 of Figure) need not
imply unbridled wasteful consumption.
 The best practice of environmental conservatism could
be incorporated into growth, so that
 efficient and ‘green’ habits become part of the
sustained culture of the human race.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
40
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
41
Figure: Scenario
 Development of nuclear fusion energy is coming
not a moment too soon.
 The critical point when total available energy
starts to decline is seen to be reached just
before the middle of this century;
 Thereafter the consumption curve has to drop
(curve 1) & Man will have to cope with a
decreasing supply
 unless the increasing shortfall is made up by
nuclear fusion energy (curve 2)
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
42
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
43
How fast can we expect the takeup of nuclear fusion energy?
 Example: Use History of the uptake of nuclear
fission energy for our scenario time-line.
 The first commercial fission power station installed
at Calder Hall, UK, 1956 with 50 MW.
 By 1960 1 GW was installed.
 By the late 70’s the installed nuclear fission power
world-wide had reached 100 GW.
 From 1 GW to 100 GW in some 18 years (10-fold
increase evry 9 years)
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
44
Example: Growth of Fission Energy
 70’s and 80’s, pressure-group litigation
& rising costs of fission reactors due to regulatory changes
and falling fossil fuel prices made fission plants less attractive
 The industry slowed down so that by the late 80’s installed
fission power had only grown to 300 GW
 and by 2005 only to 370 GW, supplying some:
 15% of the world’s electricity consumption and
 2.1% of total power consumption.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
45
Using the History of the Development of
Nuclear Fission Power Plants as Example
for our Scenario Time-line:
 Scenario of our Figure assumes an installed 1 GW of commercial
nuclear fusion power plant in 2050
 Growing 10-fold every 9 years for 27 years to 1000 GW by 2077
 and then slower growth (10-fold in 23 years) to 10000 GW by
2100;
 thereafter tripling every 50 years. (present long-term average)
 This is not unreasonable. By 2050 the world would know with a
certainty the desperation of its energy position
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
46
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
47
The Scenario-with Fusion Energy
 Just into the next century fusion energy will take up the slack
and allow Mankind to continue its progress and growth (curve
2, available energy, with fusion energy).
 The scenario shows that there will be several decades when the
constraints of energy shortage will be severely felt. Note the
flattening of the energy consumption from around 2040 to 2100.
(curve 2, with fusion energy) .
 Such a period of stagnation in energy and corresponding
stagnation in world population (curve 4 showing world
population scenario, with fusion energy) seems unavoidable
even with the development and rapid adoption of fusion energy.
 Without fusion energy the scenario is as shown by the curve 1,
depicting a severe downturn in the fortunes of Mankind with
world population dropping below 5 billion (curve 3, world
population scenario, without fusion energy).
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
48
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
49
Human Spirit Knows No Bound
 The human spirit,
its will to explore,
to always seek new frontiers,
the next Everest,
deeper ocean floors,
the inner secrets of the atom:
Iconised into human consciousness by the
deeds of Christopher Columbus, Edmund
Hillary, Jacques Costeau, and Albert Einstein.
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
50
In the background of the
ever-expanding universe
Mankind’s boundless spirit will be
curbed by a limitation to growth
That was never meant to be
That should never be so
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
51
Mankind’s Giant StepDawning of the Fusion age
 Man should have an unlimited destiny
 To reach for the moon, as he already has
then to colonize it for its resources
 Likewise to reach for the planets
 Ultimately-the stars
 Man’s spirit must and will remain
indomitable
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
52
Conclusion
In this paper we have discussed:
 Energy as the most basic of resources
 Correlation of energy consumption & wealth
 Exponential growth of population & energy
consumption per capita-unsustainable
 Human progress is limited unless a new clean energy
source is developed
 Nuclear Fusion Energy- Man’s giant step forward
 Scenario for Mankind’s Future-with Fusion Energy
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
53
2nd International Conference on Nuclear &
Renewable Energy Resources
4-7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
Nuclear Fusion EnergyMankind’s Giant Step Forward
Sing Lee 1,2,3*& Sor Heoh Saw 1,2
1Institute
for Plasma Focus Studies, 32 Oakpark Drive, Chadstone, VIC 3148, Australia
2INTI University College, 71800 Nilai, Malaysia
3Nanyang Technology University, National Institute of Education, Singapore 637616
e-mails: leesing@optusnet.com.au;
sorheoh.saw@newinti.edu.my
Thank You
2nd International Conference on Nuclear and Renewable Energy Resources
Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind’s Giant Step, 4 - 7 July 2010, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey
S Lee & S H Saw
55