Helium use in Science and
Industry – what demand is
sustainable?
Richard H Clarke
Independent Process and Resources Consultant,
Oxford UK
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Overview
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Helium market modelling
High-tech demand
Long-term strategy: fusion
Needs based quotas?
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Forecast of world maximum
deliverable production by region
2024
Cai et al. (2010)
Resources
Policy J.
Courtesy: M. Garvey / JR Campbell & Associates
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Demand: what drives it?
40000
rebased ^PSE (NYSE ArcaTech100 index)
rebased IPCU (global manufacturing)
global helium production, metric tonne / year
rebased ^PSE and IPCU, weighted by use
simple 3.3% growth
estimated weight of 'traditional' (IPCU) uses
200%
150%
30000
100%
52%
69%
10000
IPCU share
tonnes
20000
50%
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
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Shortage? What shortage?
2% market growth
Bcf
Surplus
8
Shortfall
Australia
6
Russia
Qatar3?
Qatar
Poland
4
Algeria
Cliffside
2
Riley Ridge
Mid-USA
0
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
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Helium geo-centre
DEMO
Map: SHI Cryogenics Group
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Helium geo-centre
DEMO
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Helium geo-centre
DEMO
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Helium geo-centre
DEMO
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Overview
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Helium market modelling
High-tech demand
Long-term strategy: fusion
Needs based quotas?
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Market: demand by sector (%)
100%
research etc
research etc
fibre optics
fibre optics
atomic
power
80%
purging
7th october - r
pressurising
pressurising
cryogenics
including
MRI
60%
cryogenics & MRI
semiconductors
market share
(percent)
atomic power
controlled atmos.
semi-conductors
40%
leak detection
guided
missiles
guided missiles
leak detection
medical non-cryo
lift gas, balloons
20%
titanium-zirconium
welding
lift gas / balloons
0%
welding
year 1955
1959
1963
2006
2012
...atomic age…cold war…space…microchips…superconductivity...
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An app that did not happen…
Google’s plan to bring internet to the whole planet!
• Helium-filled balloons
• Stratospheric wind navigation
• Regional networks of transponders
• Solar powered ‘Project Loon’
Image credit: Google / Project Loon
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… and one that did, then didn’t
Agilent plans to exit NMR citing global helium shortage
• Agilent acquired NMR from Varian
• Rising helium costs
• Scarcity of helium (2010-2012)
• Helium recovery / re-condensers?
Image credit: www.azom.com
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Overview
•
•
•
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Helium market modelling
High-tech demand
Long-term strategy: fusion
Needs based quotas?
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System Dynamics
DEMO
Z. Cai et al
‘Ongoing ascent to the
helium production plateau
– insights from
System Dynamics’
Resources Policy (2010)
Sources: G. Murdoch / popsci.com (DEMO)
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Nuclear fusion and the helium
supply problem
100000
Bradshaw A.M. and
Hamacher T., “Nuclear
fusion and the helium
supply problem”, 27th
Symposium on Fusion
Technology, Liège,
Belgium (2012) (in press)
Complex: JET’s cryoplant
10000
1000
Helium-from-air
would complete the
transition to sustainable helium
100
He global production (allowing for effect of fusion use)
Predicted He production Cai et al. [16], MMscf / year
Fusion roll out: predicted He use MMscf / year
Fusion capacity available online GW(e)
Cumulative fusion capacity GW(e)
He-from-air: per cent of new plants using ASU helium
10
1
2030
corroborates
2050
2070
2090
2110
2130
2150
Clarke R.H. and Cai Z.,
The Future of Helium as a
Natural Resource (2012)
eds: William J. Nuttall,
Richard H. Clarke and
Bartek A. Glowacki,
Routledge (Abingdon), pp.
235-264
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Overview
•
•
•
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Helium market modelling
High-tech demand
Long-term strategy: fusion
Needs based quotas?
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Helium Inventory
determining 's' - pipes are a key item, *other items will have velocity=constant, pushing s-->1
capacity
100
200
500
1000 might scale 10:1 before having second pipe
keep = pipe DP/m 0.1241 0.12441 0.12426 0.12503 want DP always equal (process design)
velocity
1.2731 1.51538 1.90452 2.27067 velocity is independent*
diameter
0.01 0.01296 0.01828 0.02368 d will scale so that dp=constant
inventory 0.0786 0.13198 0.26253
0.4404 assume pipe runs full
scale up 0.0008 0.00066 0.00053 0.00044 ratio inv / capacity falls as capy increases
linear
0.0786 0.1571 0.39275 0.7855 if linear scaling…
's' exponent
0.75 0.0786 0.1321 0.26265 0.44172 if 's' power scaling…
-0.2 f-factor exponent with Re
Meaning of ‘s’
's' exponent for pipes
0.5
0.45
IITER = IJET · (QITER/QJET)s
inventory
0.4
's' exponent 0.75
0.35
0.3
I = inventory
0.25
0.2
Q = thermal power
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
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Helium quotas
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Future of Helium as a Natural
Resource (Routledge, 2012)
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A History of the Helium Industry
The US Federal Helium Reserve
Helium in Algeria
LNG
Helium in Russia
India: Harnessing Helium from Earth’s Interior
Helium from the Air: The Backstop
Helium Demand
The Dynamics of the Helium Market
Closed Cycle Refrigeration - Minimizing Helium Demand in
Cryogenic Applications
Medical Imaging – Why Helium Prevails
Rising to the Challenges of Changing Liquid Helium Supply
on Cryogenic Systems
for the Research Market
Helium and Nuclear Fission Energy
Helium and Fusion Energy
Substituting Hydrogen for Helium in Cryogenic Applications
Is There a Helium Problem?
The Future for Helium
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Conclusions
• Helium market currently buoyant
– Qatar 2 filled the gap
– Qatar 3 bidding opened
– Siberian plans continue
• Medium / long term
– 1 Need a better / new pricing formula
– 2 Need better recycling and “swing” capacity
– 3 Users: minimise leaks, inventory, steady nerves!
– 4 Big, new users: avoid helium dependency
Presentation prepared by Richard H Clarke
4He Solutions © 2014
richard.clarke@icheme.org
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What the balloons mean
venting
conventional
resources
He from air
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High tech: MRI
GE MRI manufacturing facility, Florence, SC,
installing cryogenic helium recovery system
• Towards Zero Boil Off
• Inventory minimization
• Recycling and re-liquefaction
• Research: from NbTi to YBCO
Image credit: Sandy Andrews Photography
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High tech: wafer-fab
Tablets, smartphones, servers, optic fibres…
• Heat transfer
• Extreme purity
• Strong Asian demand
• Research: recycling ≠ purity ?
Image credit: Azonano / TEMwindows
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High tech: aerospace
Pressure-fed rockets, SpaceX, Skylon…
• Purge, pressurisation, heat transfer
• Once-through and closed-loop
• Helium, an essential fluid for aerospace
Image credit: Reaction Engines / Scientific American
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High tech: physics
Big Physics, fusion research…
• large 4K or 1.8K cryogenic systems
• Superconductivity, cryopumping etc.
• Research: HTC and non-cryo methods
Image credit: EFDA-JET / J. Polverini / L. Antalova
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High tech: analysis
Pharmaceutical, GC, leak detection, welding…
• Once-through applications
• Purity demands vary
• Research: recycling, transition to H2
and other gas mixtures
Image credit: Pharmtech.com / V. Pethe / A. Terentiev
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