Climate Change Risks, Implications and
Recommendations for Adaptation:
The case of Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation Project
(LUSIP), Swaziland.
Ray M. Gama & Musa Masilela
LUSIP IN BRIEF
• The Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation
Project (LUSIP) is a Government of Swaziland
poverty alleviation initiative.
• located in the Lower Usuthu river basin with a
catchment area of 12, 559 km2.
• The project will achieve this goal by
transforming the local economy from rain-fed
subsistence farming into sustainable commercial
irrigated agriculture.
• Main infrastructure – geared to harvest wet
season flows to irrigate approx 11,500ha in
(6,500ha-phase 1 and 5,000ha-phase 2).
OBJECTIVES
Swaziland is affected adversely by climate
change already. However, it is not known by
how much.
This paper aims to:
1. collate available information on climate change
impacts, with particular emphasis on LUSIP
smallholder agriculture, and
2. Make recommendations for the project
FINDINGS – relevant to LUSIP
•
There is consensus among climate
scientists on the general outlines of
climate change, however there is much
less agreement on how climate change
will affect a given location (e.g. LUSIP
Smallholder Farming).
•
There will be a 4% decrease in annual
runoff in the Usuthu River Basin (Matondo
et. al., 2004).
•
Food production is expected to decrease
as a consequence of the projected water
shortages (Mabuza et. al., 2007).
FINDINGS – relevant to LUSIP
• On a dry-year condition the LUSIP reservoir will
not fill up but a live storage level will be reached
(Mhlanga, 2010).
• There will be no serious challenges to meeting
the gross demand for the project at current
scenarios.
FINDINGS – relevant to LUSIP
Using the HaDCM3, model, both the 2050 A2 and B2 Potential Soil Moisture deficiency
projections: Area around Siphofaneni and Big Bend (LUSIP development area) will lie in
two regions projected to have soil moisture deficiency of 700 – 800mm and 800 –
900mm compared to the current 600 – 700 and 700 – 800mm, respectively. (Knox et. al., 2010).
FINDINGS – relevant to LUSIP/
Projected impacts on Irrigation
> LUSIP – popular crop at the
moment is irrigated sugar cane.
>To produce a unit weight of
sucrose equivalent to current
optimum levels of production,
future irrigation needs were
predicted to increase by 20–22%
(Knox et. al., 2010).
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
•
Strict water management and
sustainable land uses are important
issues to be considered and factored
into all planning and management
regimes in the project area.
e.g. A real time water management system
•
Development of a capacity building
framework for local Farmers.
• Use of water saving crops other than
cropping the whole PDA with
sugarcane. This also in line with the
current LUSIP diversification strategy.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
• Irrigation water rationing - During dry season
when there is zero diversion and reservoir
levels are low, rationing of water can be an
option until the following wet season when
floods occurs.
• The agro forestry initiatives proposed by some
communities need to be upscaled.
THANK YOU
for listening