5th Asian Logistics Round Table & Conference, Vancouver, Canada, June
14-15 2012
The Waves of
Containerization:
Shifts in Global Maritime
Transportation
Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography,
Hofstra University, New York, USA
Acknowledgements
■ Part of the background work undertaken with Dr.
David Guerrero while a visiting professor at
Institut français des sciences et technologies des
transports, de l'aménagement et des réseaux,
SPLOTT (Systèmes Productifs, Logistique,
Organisation des Transports, et Travail) research
unit.
■ Guerrero, D. and J-P Rodrigue (2012) "The Waves
of Containerization: Shifts in Global Maritime
Transportation", submitted for publication in the
Journal of Transport Geography.
The Benefits of Containerization
Transport Costs
• Lower freight rates
• Lower insurance rates
• Minimal load unit
Inventory Costs
• Lower storage costs
• Lower packing and packaging costs
• Faster inventory turnover
Service Level
• Time reliability
• Higher frequency
Containerization Growth Factors
Derived
Substitution
Incidental
Induced
Economic and
income growth
Globalization
(outsourcing)
Fragmentation of
production and
consumption
Functional and
geographical
diffusion
New niches
(commodities
and cold chain)
Capture of bulk
and break-bulk
markets
Trade
imbalances
Repositioning of
empty containers
Transshipment
(hub, relay and
interlining)
Multiplying Effects of Derived Demand on
Container Transport Peaking?
Global Trade and Container Throughput (1970=100)
10,000
Container Throughput
(520.4 Millions TEU)
Exports in current USD
($15.2 Trillion)
GDP in current USD
($63.4 Trillion)
1,000
World Population
(6.84 Billions)
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Concentration of the Global Container Port
System, 1970-2010
350
600
0.75
Number of ports
Gini's concentration ratio
TEUs (millions)
300
500
0.7
250
?
0.65
300
150
TEUs
200
0.6
200
100
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
0.5
1980
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
0
1975
0
1975
50
0.55
1970
100
1970
Number of ports
400
Long, Medium and Short Waves of
Containerization
Cycle
Traffic
A
Long Wave
Maturity
Acceleration
Adoption
Peak Growth
Time
(Decades)
Medium Wave (A)
Short Wave (B)
B
Years
Months
Long Waves of Containerization
Let’s ride this groovy
wave…
Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA )Parameters of
Global Container Ports, 1970-2010
Dissimilarity per number of classes
Dissimilarity dendrogram for 7 classes
10
6.74
9
7.52
8
E
D.2
9.36
7
D.1
10.20
6
C
16.10
5
B.2
18.92
B.1
4
30.69
3
31.50
2
A
High
58.06
0
20
40
60
80
Dissimilarity Level
Low
Fifth
Wave
Fourth
Wave
Third
Wave
Second
Wave
First
Wave
Evolution of Absolute and Relative Container
Throughput by HCA Class, 1970-2010
90
Container Throughput
A
80
B.1
B.2
70
Millions
Share of Global Container
Throughput
600
E
500
C
D.1
60
400
D.2
50
E
300
40
30
D.2
D.1
C
B.2
B.1
A
200
20
100
10
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0
1970
0
The First Wave of Containerization, 1970 – The Pioneers of the Triad
Pioneer ports setting
containerized operations in the
economic triad (North America,
Western Europe, Australia and
Japan).
Driver: Trade substitution
The Second Wave of Containerization, 1980 – Adoption in the Triad and its Periphery
Expansion of the triad and its
trade partners (Caribbean,
Mediterranean, Asian Tigers).
Driver: Adoption of
containerization
The Third Wave of Containerization, 1990 – Global Diffusion
Large diffusion in new
markets (Latin America,
Middle East / South Asia,
Southeast Asia).
Driver: Setting of global
supply chains. Setting of
transshipment hubs.
The Fourth Wave of Containerization, 2000 – Global Standard
The container as the
standard transport support
of the global economy.
Driver: Expansion of global
supply chains. China and
transshipment hubs.
The Fifth Wave of Containerization, 2010 – Peak Growth
Peak growth and the setting
of niches.
Driver: Spillover effect
and new transshipment
hubs.
Waves of Containerization, 1970-2010
Each wave lasts 8 to 10 years.
Hierarchical diffusion pattern.
Medium Waves of Containerization
I may have reached
an inflection point…
Shift-Share Analysis, World Container Ports, 2000-05
A shift in the growth
dynamics of global container
ports.
Shift-Share Analysis, World Container Ports, 2005-10
Shift-Share Analysis, Ports with the Highest Gain
and Decline, 2000-05 and 2005-10
2000-05
2005-10
Highest gain
Shenzhen (+25.54)
Shanghai (+23.21)
Ningbo (+9.96)
Tanjung Pelepas (+9.89)
Qingdao (+7.35)
Dubai (+6.60)
Guangzhou (+12.57)
Ningbo (+12.34)
Shanghai (+9.54)
Tianjin (+7.28)
Qingdao (+7.09)
Lianyungang (+5.07)
Highest decline
Hong Kong (-22.15)
Singapore (-15.34)
Kaohsiung (-8.42)
Manila (-6.05)
Felixstowe (-5.50)
Kobe (-4.26)
Hong Kong (-13.18)
Kaohsiung (-7.16)
Busan (-6.02)
Hamburg (-5.99)
Singapore (-5.61)
Long Beach (-5.56)
Short Waves of Containerization
Am I a gateway or a
transshipment hub?
Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different
Short Wave Dynamics
Monthly Container Traffic (Jan 2005 =100)
TI = ~0%
TI = 85%
TI = ~0%
TI = 95%
Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different
Short Wave Dynamics
Average Monthly Container Traffic Share, Selected Ports, 2005-2011
Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different
Short Wave Dynamics
Monthly Container Traffic (Jan 2005 =100)
TI = 24%
TI = 27%
TI = 44%
TI = 50%
Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different
Short Wave Dynamics
Average Monthly Container Traffic Share, Selected Ports, 2005-2011
Transshipment Volume and Incidence by Major
Ports, 2007-09
Asia – Mediterranean Corridor
East Asia Cluster
Northern
Range
Caribbean
Transshipment
Triangle
Conclusion: Reaching Peak Containerization?
The container, like any technical innovation, has a
market and diffusion potential where a phase of
maturity is eventually reached.
Five successive long waves
of containerization.
Medium waves and inflection
points.
Short waves and transshipment
dynamics.