FIELD OPS AND GOTV:
Where Elections Are Won And Lost
Justin Snyder
JustinSnyderFL@Gmail.com
@JustinSnyderFL
EVERY VOTE COUNTS
25,000 Ballots Cast
17 Vote Win Margin
.00068 %
WHAT IS A FIELD PLAN
• Blueprint to Victory
• Contains your campaign’s Goals, Strategies,
Tactics, Timelines, and Benchmarks to achieve
them.
• Person to Person Contact
– Delivering message to targeted voters
– Tactics: Calls, Canvassing, Lit drops, Mail
BUILD YOUR GRASSROOTS ARMY!!
Win Number and Vote Goal
STEP 1: Project Turnout
% Turnout in Last Election(s) X # of Reg Voters
STEP 2: Setting Goals
Win #: (Proj. Turnout / 2) + 1
Vote Goal: Proj Turnout x.52
STEP 3: WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN.
Targeting Your Resources
Why?
– Limited People, Money & Time
– Getting right message to right voters
3 Ways To Target
– Geographically
– Voter History / ID
– Constituencies
Calculating Goals
• Break District Down geographically into regions
• Find out each regions win number and vote goal.
Region #1
Current Registration: 1624
‘08 Turnout %:
31%
‘12 Proj Turnout:
503
Win Number:
253
Vote Goal (52%):
262
Region #2
Current Registration: 1603
‘08 Turnout %:
55%
‘12 Proj Turnout:
882
Win Number:
442
Vote Goal (52%):
458
Region #3
Current Registration:
‘08 Turnout %:
‘12 Proj Turnout:
Win Number:
Vote Goal (52%):
District Totals:
Current Registration:
‘08 Turnout %:
‘12 Proj Turnout:
Win Number:
Vote Goal (52%):
1897
52%
966
494
513
5124
46.3%
2371
1187
1233
Party Performance Index
Percentage of vote our party can expect in typical
election. (Based On History Not Reg)
How To Calculate PPI:
Performance #1
Performance#2
Performnce #3
3=
PPI
Where Are Our People?
Region #1
‘12 Projected Turnout:
Party Performance Index:
Proj Party Turnout:
Vote Goal (52%):
Voter Difference:
Region #2
‘12 Projected Turnout:
Party Performance Index:
Proj Party Turnout:
Vote Goal (52%):
Voter Difference:
503
69%
347
262
85
Region #3
‘12 Projected Turnout:
Party Performance Index:
Proj Party Turnout:
Vote Goal (52%):
Voter Difference:
966
48%
473
513
-39
882
31%
273
458
-185
District Totals:
‘12 Projected Turnout:
Party Performance Index:
Proj Party Turnout:
Vote Goal (52%):
Voter Difference:
2371
46.1
1094
1233
-139
FIND PERSUADABLE VOTERS
Method 1:
Look for blowouts to determine
base vote
Method 2:
Compare campaigns w/ same
constituents
100%
-Dem Base %
-- GOP Base %
____________
Persuasion Index
Candidate
% of Vote In district
Dem Gov
57%
Dem State Sen
46%
57%-46% = 11% Persuadable
CAN WE WIN?
Region #1
’12 Proj. Turnout:
503
Persuasion Index: 18%
Proj. Persuadable Voters: 91
Persuasion Share: 23.6%
Formulas:
Proj Persuadable Voter:
Turnout Proj X Persuasion %
Persuasion Share:
Regional Per. Voters/ Total
Region #2
’12 Proj. Turnout:
882
Persuasion Index: 12%
Proj. Persuadable Voters: 106
Persuasion Share: 27.6%
Region #3
’12 Proj. Turnout:
966
Persuasion Index: 19%
Proj. Persuadable Voters: 187
Persuasion Share: 48.8%
District Total:
’12 Proj. Turnout:
2371
Persuasion Index: 16.2%
Proj. Persuadable Voters: 384
Persuasion Share: 100%
TARGETING STRATEGIES
Dem Base Precincts
-PPI = >65%
-ID, Voter Reg, Vol Recruitment GOTV
GOP Base Precincts
-PPI=> less than 35%
-Lowest priority
Swing Precincts
-PPI> 65%
-ID, Persuasion & GOTV
Targeting With Voter History
Strong Supporter
(1)
Undecided
(2,3,4)
Strong Opponent
(5)
Always Vote (4x4)
D
A
F
Sometimes Vote
(2x4) (0x0)
B
C
F
Never Vote
(0X4)
E
E
F
Voter Contact Priorities
A- Undcideds likely to vote
(ID, Persuasion)
B. Supporters Less Likely To Vote
(ID, GOTV)
C. Undecideds less likely to vote
(ID, Persuasion, GOTV)
D. Supporters Likely to vote
(Base Building)
Targeting Via Constituencies
•
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Look at Candidate and Message
Identify Supporters in Community
Listen!
Build Bases of Supports.
WHAT IS GOTV
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GETTING OUT THE VOTE
CULMINATION OF CAMPAIGNS CONVOS
TARGETED- ONLY GETTING OUT SUPPORTERS
NOT A LAST MINUTE DEAL
– STARTS 2 WEEKS OUT
– START PLANNING 4-5 WEEKS OUT
VOTER CONTACT METHODS
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DOORS
PHONES
LIT DROP
DIRECT MAIL
YOUR GOTV UNIVERSE
TARGETED
UNIVERSE
SUPPORTER
1s
UNDECIDEDS
2s 3s 4s
PERSUASION
GOTV
UNIVERSE
OPPOSES
5s
Calculating Volunteer Shifts
Vote Goal: 11,496
Early Vote: 2875
Remaining Voters: 8622
Capacity:
25 GOTV phone contacts/hr
8 GOTV door contacts/ hr
3 hours per shift
We Need:
345 vol phone hours (115 vol. shifts) OR
1078 vol door hours ( 360( vol. shifts) or
90 Phone Shifts (6750 voters) + 78 Canvass Shifts (1872)
E-Day
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Phones
Doors
Rides To The Polls
Poll Watching
Advice
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It’s a marathon. Not a sprint.
Keep Calm and Under React.
Don’t break the law (Seems simple right?)
Don’t be afraid to change your plan
WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN.
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful,
committed citizens can change the world. Indeed,
it is the only thing that ever has.”
-Margaret Mead