Current Scenario of Cotton cultivation & its impacts. Venue: CEE,Ahmedabad Date: 6/10/2007 Dr.R.A.Sherasiya Director of Agriculture Gujarat State, Gandhinagar Gujarat Agriculture at a Glance cont.. General Information Agriculture Total Geographical Area : 196 lakh hectares Net Area Sown: 98.51 lakh hectares Total Cropped Area: 114.21 lakh hectares Agro Climatic Zones: 8 Area under Irrigation in Gujarat Total irrigated area: 41.11 lakh hectares ( 41.73 % against net area sown 98.51 lakh hectares . (2003-04) After completion of major and medium Projects – 64 lakh hectares (64.97% against Net Area Sown 98.51 lakh hectares ) Source SCR 2003-04 Land Utilisation in Gujarat Net Area Sown: 98.51 lakh hectares, Total Cropped Area: 114.21 lakh hectares 18.54 Net Area Sown 11 .4 5 Area in lakh ha. 26.08 98.51 8.50 68 5. 0.1 19. 77 1 Forest Area under non agri Barren & unculturable Permenent pasture Culturable waste Other fallow Current Fallow Net area sown Cropping pattern .. Area ( In Lakh Hact) CROP / YEAR 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Actual Actual Estimated Estimate d Food grains 40.34 36.61 40.44 43.61 Oilseeds 29.5 29.77 32.82 33.35 Cotton 16.41 19.06 20.77 23.90 Cotton 24% Oil seed 35% Food grain 43% Yr. 2006-07 Past scenario Of Cotton in Gujarat state Sr. No. 1 1950-1959 Avg. Area ( lakh ha.) 15.03 2 1960-1969 17.39 15.48 151 3 1970-1979 19.06 19.46 4 5 1980-1989 1990-1999 13.10 16.18 14.95 23.93 174 210 272 Decade Avg.Production Avg.Productivity ( lakh bales) Kg/ha.(lint) 9.30 105 10 14 .9 5 13 .1 15 19 .0 6 20 17 .3 9 Area 15 .0 3 Area in Lakh Ha. 25 5 0 50s 60s 70s Decade 80s 90s Recent scenario Of Cotton in Gujarat state 2000-2001 2001-2002 Area ( lakh ha.) 16.15 17.50 Production ( lakh bales) 11.61 17.02 Productivity Kg/ha.(lint) 122 165 3 2002-2003 16.34 16.84 175 4 2003-2004 16.41 40.26 417 5 2004-2005 19.66 55.43 479 6 2005-2006 20.77 73.79 604 7 2006-07 23.90 87.87 625 Sr.No. Year 1 2 IN 2002-03, INTRODUCTION OF BT. COTTON Over view of Cotton in Gujarat Considerable area since long Response of new varieties on Area shown Desi Indo American (50s) Hybrid (70) Decline in Area in 80s Constant Increase in yield till 90s Hybrid performed well during 90s (356 kg lint/ha in 1997-98) Reduced yield in 2000-01,2001-02, 2002-03 (Boll worm menace) Sudden hike in area & Yield form 2003-04 (Introduction of Bt) Pre-B.T. 2002-03 Kutchh Major Cotton growing districts (Area >25000 ha.) Mahesana sabarkantha A’bad Surendranagar Jamnagar Vadodara Rajkot Bhavnagar Bharuch Post -B.T. 2007-08 Amreli B.K. 11 Districts Patan Mahesana sabarkantha Kutchh Gandhinagar A’bad Kheda Surendranagar Jamnagar Vadodara Rajkot Bhavnagar Amreli Juangadh 17 Districts Bharuch Narmada N District-wise Area under Cotton Crop during Kahrif -07(2007-08) Sr.No. District Target Sown % area sown Area Area against target 1 Ahmedabad 1750 1876 107.20 2 Banaskantha 125 307 245.60 3 Vadodara 1750 1694 96.80 4 Broach 1550 1392 89.81 5 Narmada 450 442 98.22 6 Gandginagar 275 324 117.82 7 Kheda 300 258 86.00 8 Anand 5 37 740.00 9 Mehsana 450 438 97.33 10 Patan 1000 635 63.50 11 Panchmahals 85 65 76.47 12 Dahod 50 6 12.00 13 Sabarkantha 800 1018 127.25 14 Surat 98 90 91.84 15 Amreli 1450 2339 161.31 16 Bhavnagar 2375 3139 132.17 17 Jamnagar 1000 1903 190.30 18 Junagadh 350 607 173.43 19 Probandar 65 135 207.69 20 Kutchh 410 569 138.78 21 Rajkot 2550 3509 137.61 22 Surendranagar 3900 4385 112.44 Total 20788 25168 121.07 Why cotton in Gujarat ? Suitable Soil type & climate Trade, processing & Industrial Support since long Business instincts & Higher adoptability of farmers Crop sustain long dry spell & variable monsoon pattern Better suitable for rain-fed farming (only 33 % irrigation) Better income in adverse condition Lucrative Price Research & Extension support Species suitability for variable climate ( Arid / Semi arid / Mild tropic) Prospect of Cotton depends on.. Tread / Industrial support Price policy & export Sustainable yield Insect / pest infestation Cost of cultivation Irrigation facility Research, Extension & Market support WTO policy Lint quality New technology like Transgenic cotton in field of Biotic and A-biotic Stress. World trade (In M.bale of 170 kg) Year Cotton Production Consumption Export 2000-01 114.79 119.25 34.45 2001-02 127.48 122.25 37.65 2002-03 114.23 127.43 39.28 2003-04 123.04 127.55 42.77 2004-05 155.85 140.72 45.23 2005-06 144.57 148.03 52.81 Production is unstable Consumption & export has increasing trend Source : fas.usda Cotton market prices (Rs.Per quintal) Sr.No. Year Support price Rs. Market prices Rs. 1. 2001-2002 1840 1650-1825 2. 2002-2003 1860 2025-2395 3. 2003-2004 1910 2239-2900 4. 2004-2005 1960 1620-2130 5. 2005-2006 1985 1950-2149 6. 2006-2007 2005 2150-2500 7. 2007-2008 2055 - Unstable price May adversely affect cotton cultivation Cost of cultivation of Cotton Sr. No. Component A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I Seed Insecticide/Pesticide Cost – C1 Cost – C2 Yield/hect. In qtl. Return/hac. Over Cost-C1 Return/hac. Over Cost-C2 Cost of prod. /qtl. Over Cost-C1 Cost of prod. / qtl. Over Cost-C2 (C1+Management charges) Cost of cultivation (in Rs./hect.) 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 960 1867 29901 32891 13.33 -36 -3026 2202.70 2427.01 3063 1850 41249 45374 23.03 7832 3707 1759.92 1939.03 1410 2174 33145 36460 15.90 875 -2440 2044.97 2253.46 1900 1779 35749 39324 19.55 5016 1441 1793.40 1976.27 Year 2004-05 Increases seed cost but reduce pesticides cost • Increases Yield & Increases Net Return • 1900 1779 35749 39324 19.55 5016 1441 1793.40 1976.27 Different count group cotton required Requirement of lint Sl. No. Count group % cotton required Present species 1. 1s-10s 18.56 Herb, Arb, aa 2. 11s-20s 19.30 HH,Herb, ah 3. 21s-30s 18.81 Hirs, HH,ah 4. 31s-40s 26.05 Hirs,HH 5. 41s-60s 12.97 Hirs,HH 6. 61s-80s 2.33 HH, HB, Barb 7. 81s-100s 2.00 HB Barb 8. 101s-120s 2.00 HB, Barb 100.00 Current bt. Hybrid have potential to meet 50 -60 % requirement of lint PROSPECT OF COTTON IN GUJARAT Dependable crop since long Increasing world Consumption & export Better price support Increasing net return Catch major quality segment of lint Increasing Irrigation facilities (SSNL / Farm pond / Water conservation / Micro-irrigation) Increasing Research / Extension support STORY OF BT. Cotton Introduction in 2002-03 Sr. No. Year Varieties in market Gene 1 2002-03 3 BG-I 2 2003-04 3 BG-I 3 2004-05 4 BG-I 4 2005-06 12 BG-I & BG-II 5 2006-07 27 BG-I, BG-II& Fusion 6 2007-08 72 BG-I, BG-II& Fusion Adoption of technology Bt. cotton packets sold in Gujarat 4000000 Sr. no Year No. of packets sold Packets Sold 3500000 1 2002-03 18587 2 2003-04 103740 3 2004-05 333402 4 2005-06 368812 5 6 2006-07 2007-08 1007442 3478490 (Expectation) Packets in No's 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Years 2006-07 2007-08 '03-04 '04-05 '05-06 23.9 19.06 16.41 16.85 '02-03 20.77 47.55 73.79 '01-02 16.35 17.03 40.27 '00-01 17.49 11.61 16.15 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 87.87 Impact of Bt. Cotton on Production in Gujarat '06-07' AREA (in lakh ha.) Production (in lakh bales) Indirect consequences of Bt Cotton 1. Insecticide use decline; Miscellaneous insects of minor importance such as bugs would create problems. 2. Reduced pyrethroids: Pink bollworm & Spodoptera likely to reemerge. H. armigera & whitefly backseat 3. Susceptibility to sucking pests –because of susceptible exotic donor parent !! (Coker 312) 4. Reduction in efforts for conventional breeding approaches for OTHER pest management. 5. Shift in focus; away from research on other pest management methods SWOT analysis of Bt crop STRENGTH WEAKNESS Huge investment Lack of location specific Package of Increasing area Practices Lack of Coordination among various agencies Competition & Lots of variety Lack of proper awareness in public OVER COME Higher seed prices Effective against ball worm Target specific Reduce use of insecticides SUSTAIN OPPORTUNITY THREATS > 20 Lakh area under cotton Development of Resistance in pest Innovative & adoptive farmers Resurgence of minor pest Increases area under irrigation Spurious seed > 20 cotton growing dist. Can reduce cost of cultivation CAPTURE MITIGATE SUSTAIN OVER COME CAPTURE MITIGATE BY Effective .. Research Extension Law enforcement policy Coordination Bt. Cotton in Gujarat Area of Bt.Hybrid Kharif-07 (13.96 Lakh Ha.) Impact of Bt. + 10 Lakh Ha. Area of Bt.Hybrid Khari-06 ( 4.03 Lakh ha.)