How will we grow? Looking at
America to 2050
Presentation by Joel Kotkin,
Chapman University, to NCREIF
Chicago September, 19, 2013
Long Term Fundamentals
• U.S. only advanced
country with large,
growing population
• Huge resource base
• Economic system
most resilient among
advanced countries
• Affordable housing
attracts key
demographic groups
• Dispersion and
decentralization is the
future
More Crowding to Come: US Population
Growth 1960-2050
400,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
1960
Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2030
2050
Labor Force Growth
45%
35%
Growth in Age 15-64
United States,
37%
25%
15%
5%
-5%
China, -10%
-15%
-25%
Europe, -21%
Korea, -30%
-35%
Japan, -39%
-45%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
Ratio of Elderly to Working Age Population
65 & OVER PERSONS PER 15-64 YEARS
0.9
2010
0.8
65 & Over Persons per Under 15
0.82
Calculated from
UN Population Prospects:
2010 Revision
2050
0.7
0.6
0.53
0.5
0.45
0.3
0.2
0.37
0.36
0.4
0.34
0.26
0.19
0.12
0.09
0.1
0.0
China
Europe
Japan
Singapore
United States
Future Drivers of Growth
•
•
Resurgence of Basic Industry
•
Rise of Growth Corridors
• Role of Immigration
Millennials, Seniors and the role of families drive
dispersion
Ag Exports Increasing
Driven by solid worldwide demand, increased productivity, and strong
commodity prices, America’s ag sector has seen overall export levels
steadily increase over the past decade.
US Ag Exports, 2000-2011
140.0
Billions of Dollars
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: USDA Economic Research Service
2010
2011
Leading in Gas Production
Natural Gas Production, Billions of Cu M
United States
611
Russia
589
European Union
182
Canada
152
Iran
139
Qatar
Norway
China
117
106
97
Netherlands
85
Algeria
85
Saudi Arabia
84
Indonesia
83
CIA World Factbook
Shale Oil and Gas- Not Just the Bakken
Oil and Gas Extraction Job Growth, 2001-2011
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000
Texas
Oklahoma
Colorado
California
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Kansas
Florida
New Mexico
North Dakota
Ohio
Wyoming
Arkansas
West Virginia
Illinois
Michigan
Mississippi
Alaska
Utah
Source: EMSI Complete Employment, 2011.4
6%
Growth Rates: Real GDP vs. Manuafacturing
5.2
5%
4.7
4%
3%
2%
1.7
1%
0%
Real GDP
2011
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
2011
Feb. 2011 to Feb. 2012
A High Economic Multiplier
Activity Generated by $1 of Sector GDP
STEM Occupation Growth, 2002-2012
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
25.5%
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
20.5%
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
16.8%
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
11.7%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
11.5%
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Nation
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
11.0%
7.5%
5.7%
4.1%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA -1.5%
Source: EMSI Class of Worker Employment, 2012.2
MAP by Forbes Magazine
2013-2023 JOB GROWTH % CHANGE
Research by EMSI, Inc.
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
2013-2023 %
change
2003-2013 %
change
Population trends
2012 Population
2001-2012
Growth
2013-2023
Projection
Great Lakes
58,204,741
3%
1%
Plains
40,198,802
14%
6%
Inland West
31,937,817
21%
7%
Left Coast
18,754,371
10%
5%
NE
41,377,960
6%
3%
SoCal
20,738,971
10%
5%
SE
60,684,462
14%
5%
Third Coast
16,421,390
16%
7%
Miami
5,729,000
12%
6%
NY
19,109,549
3%
3%
Domestic Migration by State: 2000-2009
10 LARGEST STATES
FL
TX
NC
GA
PA
Data from
Census Bueau
OH
MI
IL
CA
NY
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Millions: Net Domestic Migration
1.0
1.5
Gaining States
Declustering: The New Demography
• Nationwide people heading to
smaller towns and cities
• Shift to opportunity regions
• Social trends strongly prosuburban
• US Population growth will
increase interest “flyover
country”
Net Domestic Migration by Population
MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-09, 2010-12
4%
3.7%
Share of 2000 Population
2%
1.4%
0%
Over 10M
-2%
5M-10M
-2.5%
2.5M-5M
0.6%
1M-2.5M
-4%
-6%
From Census
Bureau Data
-8%
-10%
-12%
-11.3%
Other
PROJECTED CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS
2012-2017
Research by Pitney Bowes Corp.
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
Housing Affordability: 15 Largest MSAs
U.S. Average
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Dallas-Fort Worth
Houston
Philadelphia
Washington
Miami
Atlanta
Boston
San Francisco
Riverside-San Bernardino
Phoenix
Detroit
Seattle
Salt Lake City
3.1
6.2
6.2
3.2
2.9
3
3.8
4.1
4.5
2
5.2
7.8
3.7
3
1.5
4.8
3.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Median Multiple
7
8
9
Housing Preferences: Realtors Survey
2011 COMMUNITY PREFERENCE SURVEY
Attached
7%
Other
5%
Multi-Unit
8%
Detached
80%
Figure 25
Population Growth by Distance from Core
US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2010
9,000,000
8,000,000
Data from
Census Bureau
Population Growth
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
8,566,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
3,473,000 2,989,000
1,000,000
0
-1,000,000
1,105,000
206,000
-272,000
Figure 26
Fastest Growing Counties Over 100,000
2010-2012
Williamson, TX
7.94%
Loudon, VA
7.87%
Hays, TX
7.56%
Orleans, LA
7.39%
Fort Bend, TX
7.16%
Midland, TX
7.14%
Data from
Census Bureau
Forsyth, GA
7.07%
Montgomery, TN
7.04%
Prince William, VA
7.04%
Osceola, FL
6.97%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Groups Shaping our Future Demography
–
• Key demographic groups:
Immigrants, Millennials, Aging
Boomers --- mostly in suburbs
• Millennials start to grow up
• Shift in geography of family: key
to long-term growth
White-Non-Hispanic Share of Population
US: 1960-2050
100%
90%
Source: Bureau of the Census
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1960
2010
2020 Projection
Figure 30
Foreign Born Share of New Households
US: 1970-2010
70%
60%
50%
Source: Myers & Pitkin
40%
30%
20%
Total
10%
Owner
Renter
0%
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
Figure 31
Immigration Rates Top 15 Regions
Annual Average, 2001-2008
Miami
Los Angeles
San Francisco
New York
Dallas
Houston
Washington
Phoenix
Chicago
Atlanta
Boston
Seattle
Riverside
Detroit
Philadelphia
10.1
8.0
7.5
7.4
6.5
6.5
6.0
5.8
5.2
4.8
4.6
4.1
3.3
2.5
2.1
Areas are MSA
U.S. Census Population Estimates
Growth in Foreign Born Population, 2000-2011
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
118.3%
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC
100.4%
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
73.0%
Kansas City, MO-KS
68.4%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
67.5%
Oklahoma City, OK
64.9%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
50.3%
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
48.7%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
46.0%
Salt Lake City, UT
39.0%
Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO
34.4%
United States
29.8%
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH
28.1%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-…
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
23.4%
15.4%
13.8%
2.6%
U.S. Census 2000 and American
Community Survey
Millions
Number of 65 - 100 year olds in United States
2050, 88.55 Million
90
80
2030, 72.09 Million
70
60
50
2008, 38.69 Million
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
NewGeography.com
Source: Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Projections, Released 2008
Empty Nesters: To Less Dense Areas
MAJOR METROPOLITAN & SMALLER AREAS
6.0%
4.0%
Change in Share of Cohort
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
Major Metro Core
Cities
Major Metro
Suburbs
Smaller Areas
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-14.0%
65-74 Population in 2010
Compared to 55-64 in 2000
Source: US Census Data
90% of people over
fifty would rather
stay put than move
- AARP
“They don’t want to move
to Florida, and they want to
stay close to the kids. What
they are looking for is a
funky suburban
development – funky but
safe.”
- Washington-area developer Jeff Lee.
Photo: Vlastula
Millennials rival Boomers
Population in Millions
81.6
81.0
57.3
Millennials (Age 12 - 30)
Gen X (Age 31 - 44)
Boomers (Age 45 - 64)
U.S. Census Population Projections, 2008
Number of 30 - 45 year olds in United States
Millions
2050, 88.09 Million
90
2025, 74.73 Million
80
2010, 66.14 Million
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Source: Praxis Strategy Group Analysis of U.S. Census Population Projections, Released 2008
Millennials and the Family
Sources of Happiness of
13-24 year olds
76
85% plan to get married
72
53
52
43
35
77% probably or
definitely
want children
Associated Press/MTV Survey, 2007
Millennial Life Style Choices
COMPARED TO OLDER GENERATIONS
Current
Residence
Big City
Suburb
Source:
Frank N. Magid
Associates
Small City
Country
Millenials
Older Generations
Ideal Place
to Live
Big City
Suburb
Small City
Country
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Figure 40
Absolute Change: College Graduates
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: MAJOR METRO AREAS: 2007-9
Change in College Graduates: 2007-2009
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
52 Metropolitan Areas over Million Population 2007
0%
Under 3.0
3.0-4.0
4.0-5.0
5.0-6.0
6.0-8.0
Median House Price/Median Household Income: 2007
Over 8
Change in 5-17 Population: 2000-2010
MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREA EXAMPLES
60%
Source:
Census Data
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Change
No matter how many communes anybody invents, the
family always creeps back.
Margaret Mead
JOELKOTKIN.COM
A vivid snapshot of America in
2050 focusing on the
evolution of the more
intimate units of American
society—families, towns,
neighborhoods, industries.
It is upon the success or
failure of these communities
that the American future
rests.
Questions and Comment