Global Capital Forum
4th February 2014
King George Palace Hotel
Increasing commitment towards purchases
and newbuilding orders by Greeks.
How are these funded?
presented by
Ted Petropoulos
HEAD
PETROFIN RESEARCH
Presentation outline
1.
Shipfinance and acquisition trends – the Greek story and Globally
2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition
3. The funding situation
4. Summary and Conclusions
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
The Greek story
• In 2013, the Greek orders amounted to 275 (compared to 881 in 2012Clarksons), up from 135 in 2012 (Sources: Moundreas and Naftiliaki). Greeks
have ordered the most ships, about 25% of global orders, of a total value
approx. $13bn (Source: Moundreas)
• In the S&P of second hand vessels, an overall of 1500 ships were bought, of
which approx. 375 were bought by Greeks, followed by the Chinese with
less than 125 (Sources: Naftiliaki, Allied Shipbrokers).
• Value for the Greek fleet (excluding rigs, offshore and cruises) estimated at
US$101bn (Source: VesselsValue.com)
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
The Greek story
• According to Petrofin Bank Research ©, lending into Greek shipping has
been falling from $67.7bn end 2011 to $65.8bn end of 2012.
• We are in the process of completing Petrofin Bank Research as of end 2013.
We anticipate a further drop in Greek shipfinance, in view of the condition
of the remaining 5 Greek banks and of most of the other major lenders to
Greek shipping adopting serious lending restrictions.
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
Globally
• Norwegians may not have ordered the most ships, but have spent the most
money on orders (approx. 17bn worth of newbuildings, in 2013 (Source:
Clarksons)
• Global ship lending figures (drawn and committed) as of November 2013 are
estimated at $460bn (Petrofin Research ©).
• The above includes the offshore support sector but excludes rigs and
shipyard finance
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
Globally
• The Global Fleet value, excluding rigs, offshore and cruises is estimated at
US$660bn (Source: VesselsValue.com)
• Tufton Oceanic have estimated that the value of the global fleet INCLUDING
offshore, rigs, and all orders, but not cruises, as of January 2014, stands at
US$1.269tr.
• In Graph 1, we present the latest Petrofin Bank Research ©, on the shipping
loan portfolio of the top 40 global ship finance banks representing $404.19bn
of total loans (87.86% of the total).
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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Bank Lending to Shipping
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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Ship finance based on interim data up to beginning December 2013 – in $bn
•
• Top 40 banks as of beginning December 2013: $404bn
November 2012 - Top 40 ship finance banks’ portfolios stand at approximately at $422.135bn
29.96
DnB
Commerzbank
Bank of China*
KfW*
HSH Nordbank-only core*
ICBC*
Korea Exim*
RBS
Nordea
BTMU*
Nord LB*
DVB
BNP Paribas
China Exim*
Credit Agricole*+75%Emporiki
Credit Suisse*
HSBC
Citibank
SMBC*
ABN Amro
Bremer Landesbank*
Deutsche Shipping - Deutsche Bank*
Danish Ship Finance
ING*
Unicredit
Standard and Chartererd*
Lloyds Banking Group**
Danske Bank/Fokus Bank*
SEB*
DBS
Santander*
Japan Bank for International Co-operation*
Societe General*
National Bank of Greece*
Commonwealth Bank of Australia*
Piraeus Bank*
Deka*
Alpha Bank*
NIBC
Swedbank*
* Market estimate
21.6
19
18
17.5
17
16.5
16
15.93
15
15
15
14
14
12.5
12
11
10.8
10
10
8
8
8
8
7.2
6
5.5
5
5
5
5
4
3
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.25
2.25
2
1.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Graph 2
PETROFIN RESEARCH
Top 40 Bank Lending to Shipping
www.petrofin.gr
Ship finance based on data up to beginning December 2013 – in $bn
470
462.9
460
454.89
449.76
450
440
436.18
430
422.135
420
410
404.19
400
390
380
370
2008
2009
Source: Petrofin Bank Research December 2013
2010
2011
2012
2013
1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
Globally
• Last year, the top 6 banks’ share was approx. 34.17% (with a combined portfolio
of $144.25bn).
• This year the top 6 banks’ share is 30.45% (with a combined portfolio of
$123.06bn)
• Lastly, European bank exposure accounted for 83.12% of the top 40 total in 2010
and 81.69% up to November 2011 and 75.13% in November 2012 and 71.84%
beginning December 2013.
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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at
Top 40 banks in terms of geographical position, portfolios and percentage hold of the totals
– from 2010 to beginning December 2013
Graph 3
$460.00
$410.00
$373.86
360.88
$360.00
317.14
290.39
$310.00
$260.00
$210.00
103.00
$160.00
93.00
86.50
$110.00
$66.40
$60.00
$9.50
12.00
7.51
10.80
$10.00
Europe
USA
Far East and Australasia
-$40.00
2010
Source: Petrofin Bank Research December 2013
2011
2012
2013
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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European banks – Comparison between 2010 and up to
beginning December 2013
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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Graph 4
Other154.44
160
$151.32UK
and Ireland
141.04
140
Scandinavia
France and Belgium
120
112.55
Holland
100
Greece
82.58
$82.03
80
60
Germany
53.86
$53.35
36.7
43.5
40
66.65
65.6
$31.84
38.5
20.00
27.2
18.1
26.50
$17.62
12.78
13
20
20.5
$9.72
20.00
$15.00 14.75
5.895 7.250
0
UK and Ireland
France and Belgium
Holland
Germany
2010
2011
2012
Greece
2013
Scandinavia
Other European
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition
Second hand purchases
• Bank finance (Western banks):
declining/highly depending on owner
(The top 6 banks last year held a portfolio of $144.25bn, in May 2013 this stood at $135.5bn, whereas in
December 2013 their collective portfolio was down to $123bn)
• Bank finance (Far Eastern banks):
negligible
• Public markets:
rising
(Navios Maritime Acquisition acquired 2 bulkers at $160m, Star bulk spent $60m for 2 post-panamax, DHT
buys two second-hand VLCCs for $99m and many others)
2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition
Second hand purchases continued
• Export credit agencies:
negligible
• Own capital resources:
rapidly increasing
• International Private Capital (Equity funds): rapidly increasing/depending
on owner
(Euronav's $1bn takeover of the the 15-strong VLCC fleet of Maersk Tankers. Equity from BHRCapital,
Glendon Capital Management and Solus Alternative Asset Management, GoldenTree Asset Management,
York Capital Management, BlueMountain Capital and Avenue Capital Group.) (Source: Tradewinds,
Naftiliaki)
• Private capital:
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rapidly increasing/depending on owner
2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition
Newbuilding acquisitions
• Bank finance (Western banks):
low/ highly depending on owner
• Bank finance (Far Eastern banks):
increasing/ highly depending on owner
(Costamare)
• Public markets:
rising
(Scorpio, Star Bulk, Blue Wall Shipping, New Lead etc.)
• Export credit agencies:
increasing
(ECGD, Coface, Hermes, GIEK, CEXIM – their export credit agency, Atradius)
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition
Newbuilding acquisitions continued
• Own capital resources:
increasing
• International Private Capital (Equity funds): rapidly increasing/depending
on owner
(Jeff Pribor (Jefferies’ head of investment) says owners should not fear a shipping recovery being wrecked
by the run of money from the capital markets and private equity. Pribor asserted that the $8bn raised by
listed shipping companies in 2013 and the potential $12bn private equity presence in the industry lack the
scale to be a problem.
Euroseas
• Private capital (independent investors):
rapidly increasing
• % of newbuilding finance covered: less than 25%
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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3. The funding situation
Sources – January 2012
Sources – January 2014
Unfunded
Orderbook, USD
115, 9%
Unfunded
Orderbook, USD
47, 4%
Government,
USD 60, 6%
Bonds, USD 94,
7%
Bonds, USD 59,
5%
private Equity,
USD 246, 22%
Government,
USD 137, 11%
private Equity,
USD 278, 22%
Public Equity,
USD 223, 20%
Public Equity,
USD 190, 15%
Bank Debt, USD
455, 36%
Bank Debt, USD
477, 43%
2012 - World Fleet & Orderbook Value USD 1.112 trillion
Source: Tufton Oceanic data
2014 - World Fleet & Orderbook Value USD 1.269 trillion
3. The funding situation
Uses – January 2012
Uses – January 2014
Dry, USD 281,
22%
Dry, USD 258,
23%
Offshore, USD
363, 33%
Offshore, USD
528, 42%
Wet, USD 266,
21%
Wet, USD 252,
22%
General Cargo,
USD 74, 7%
Container, USD
165, 15%
Source: Tufton Oceanic data
General Cargo,
USD 65, 5%
Container, USD
130, 10%
4. Summary and conclusions
1.
Greeks remain totally committed to shipping, as the prognosis for shipping and
especially dry and wet are very positive
2.
Interest in acquiring more vessels is accelerating.
3.
Every financial and private capital source is being exploited
4.
Increasingly more reliance on own resources
5.
Newbuilding order book remains largely speculative
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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Thank you
PETROFIN RESEARCH ©
www.petrofin.gr
February 2014