CENTRAL COMMISSION FOR THE NAVIGATION OF THE RHINE
COMMISSION CENTRALE POUR LA NAVIGATION DU RHIN
ZENTRALKOMMISSION FÜR DIE RHEINSCHIFFFAHRT
CENTRALE COMMISSIE VOOR DE RIJNVAART
CENTRAL COMMISSION
FOR THE NAVIGATION
OF THE RHINE
Norbert Kriedel
Economist
Luxembourg, 9 Juin 2010
Inland Shipping Data in Market Monitoring
Norbert Kriedel,
Economist, CCNR
Market Observation European Inland Navigation
Central Commission for Navigation on the Rhine
ETISplus Waterborne Transport Data Workshop
Neth-ER (The Netherlands House for Education and Research
Aarlenstraat (Rue d’Arlon) 22, Brussels
12.05.2011
2
Overview Main Areas of Market Observation
1) Transport Demand
2) Transport Supply
3) Microeconomic Issues
(Costs, Freight Rates, Turnover)
4) Inland Navigation Labour market
5) Modal Split
3
Overview Sources of Market Observation
1) Transport Demand
Data for transport demand…
• National Statistical Offices
• National Shipping Authorities (also regional data)
Austria: Via Donau
France: Voies Navigables de France
Germany: Wasserschifffahrtsdirektionen
• International organizations
Eurostat
ITF/OECD
4
Goods Transport in Inland Navigation –
Danube Countries
28,000
24,000
1.000 t
20,000
16,000
Transit
12,000
Export
8,000
national Transport
4,000
Import
0
Sources: National Statistical Offices
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Data for Transport Demand – Problems and
Limitations
1) No actual transport statistics for certain countries (e.g. Belgium,
Netherlands)
2) Transit Traffic sometimes not included in official data.
Alternative: Estimations based on …
• Inland Port Statistics
• Sea Port Statistics (overall traffic / hinterland share / modal
split share of IWT)
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Data for Transport Demand – Problems and
Limitations (II)
3) Eurostat Change from NST/R goods classification to NST 2007
Loss of information
New goods categories are often not well specified for
market observation
Example:
Old Classification: (NST/R)
Code 11: Iron Ore, Metal Wastes
Code 15: Sand & Gravel
…. Steel segment
…. Construction segment
New Classification: (NST 2007)
GT 03: Ores, Sand & Gravel, other mining materials …. Both segments
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Data for Transport Demand – Problems and
Limitations (II)
Eurostat Change from NST/R goods classification to NST 2007
Possible solution of the Problem:
Harmonisation of NST 2007 on 3 digits at a European
level
all countries shall be obliged to produce statistics at this
degree of detail
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Transport Ores and Metal Wastes
(Rhine)
4500
Steel Production
= Reference
Series
4000
1.000 t
3500
Steel Production
3000
2500
2000
Transport Ores
and Metal Wastes
1500
1000
Jan 2011
Sep 2010
May 2010
Jan 2010
Sep 2009
May 2009
Jan 2009
Sep 2008
May 2008
Jan 2008
Sources: German Statistical Office; Eurofer. German Steel Production
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Overview Sources of Market Observation
2) Transport Supply
Data for fleet statistics…
•National Statistical Offices
•International Ship Registers (IVR)
•Ministries of Transport
Problems/Limitations:
• Sometimes two different sources for one country
• Problems of actuality in some countries
• Active / Inactive fleet: Some sources contain inactive ships
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Index 2003 = 100
Tanker Shipping in Western Europe –
Comparison of Supply and Demand over time
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2003 until 2010
Fleet Capacity
+ 35 %
Fleet Capacity
Transport Volume
Transport
Volume + 4 %
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Calculation CCNR based on data for tanker fleets in Belgium France, Germany, Netherlands, Luxemburg (source: IVR)
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Overview Sources of Market Observation
3) Microeconomic Indicators
• Cost Structure and Evolution of Costs
sources: shipping industry associations
• Freight Rates
sources: surveys of shippers
• Turnover
calculations CCNR for dry cargo market / tanker shipping based
on freight rates and transport volumes of the whole industry
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Freight Rates in Tanker Shipping on the Rhine
(Gasoil freight rates)
40
35
30
€/mton
25
20
15
10
5
0
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Source: PJK International
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Freight Rates in Tanker Shipping and Water
level
40
35
freight rate [€/mton]
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
water level [cm]
Source: PJK International; Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde
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Freight Rates, Transport Demand and
Turnover (Tanker shipping)
2010-4
2010-3
2010-2
2010-1
Turnover
2009-4
2009-3
Freight Rates
2009-2
Transport Volume
2009-1
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
year-on-year % change
Source: CCNR
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Overview Sources of Market Observation
4) Labour Market Issues
Data sources for employment studies in inland shipping …
•
National Statistical Offices (for overall employment and
employment in sub-markets, wages, etc. )
•
National Social Security Organizations
(for employment according to age groups, number of foreign
personnel, number of female and male employees, etc.)
•
Social Security Organizations for self-employed
(for number of self-employed inland shippers)
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Employment in Dutch Inland Navigation
(fte = full time equivalents)
4
3.5
3
1.000 fte
2.5
Dry Cargo Shipping
2
Tanker Shipping
1.5
Passenger Transport
1
0.5
Source: CBS
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
0
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Age Structure in Belgian Inland Shipping
60
49,9
50
45,2
43,5
% share
40
31,2
30
self-employed
18,8
20
employed
11,3
10
0
15 till 29
Source: ONSS / INASTI
30 till 49
over 50
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Employment in German Inland Shipping
7000
6000
5000
4000
navigating personnel
3000
personnel ashore
2000
1000
0
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Source: German Statistical Office
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Thank you very much for your attention.
Merci beaucoup pour votre attention.
Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit.
Dank u voor uw aandacht.
Norbert Kriedel, CCR
Market observation –
Central Commission for Navigation of the Rhine (CCNR)
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