The Success Stories and its
Limits: The Concrete Case
Studies (3 lectures)
• - Russia/Soviet Union
• - Latin America in the Era of Catching
Up Industrialisation
• - East Asian Miracle: The Rise of the
New Industrial Pole
The empire model of modernisation
• Goals
• Means
• – maintenance of
military-political
power, ability to
defensive and
offensive war
• – modernisation of
army & the state
governance, selective
borrowings of the
advanced technologies and scientific
accomplishments
important for
militarisation
The Rise of Dualism in Russia
Army & military industry
resources
Exploitation of
country-side
Conservation of backwardness
as the main obstacle to further
modernisation
Alexander Pushkin on the internal
central-peripheral structure of Russia
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
“Whatever for caprice of spending
ingenious London has been sending
across the Baltic in exchange
for wood and tallow; all the range
of useful objects that the curious
Parisian taste invents for one –
for friends of languor, or of fun,
or for the modishly luxurious –
all this, at eighteen years of age
adorned the sanctum of our sage.” (Eugene
Onegin)
GDP per capita in some countries of Latin America
and Europe (including Russia), 1870-1938
Countries
Absolute amount of GDP per capita,
measured by PPP (in dollars of 1990)
The ratio of countries’ GDP per capita to
the world average
1870
1900
1913
1929
1938
1870
1900
1913
1929
1938
France
1 858
2 849
3 452
4 666
4 424
2.02
2.18
2.17
2.47
2.30
Germany
1 913
3 134
3 833
4 335
5 126
2.08
2.40
2.41
2.30
2.67
United Kingdom
3 263
4 593
5 032
5 255
5 983
3.55
3.52
3.16
2.79
3.11
Russia/USSR
1 023
1 218
1 488
1 386
2 150
1.11
0.93
0.93
0.74
1.12
Argentina
1 311
2 756
3 797
4 367
4 072
1.43
2.11
2.39
2.32
2.12
Brazil
740
704
839
1 106
1 291
0.80
0.54
0.53
0.59
0.67
Chile
-
1 949
2 653
3 396
3 139
-
1.49
1.67
1.80
1.63
710
1 157
1 467
1 489
1 380
0.77
0.89
0.92
0.79
0.72
-
821
1 104
3 426
4 144
-
0.63
0.69
1.82
2.15
920
1 305
1 592
1 884
1 923
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Mexico
Venezuela
World in average *)
For comparison of Uruguay with
Denmark
• Dieter Sengaas. The European
Experience: A Historical Critique of
Development Theory. Leamington
Spa, Dover (N.H.): Berg Publishers,
1985 (1-st published in Frankfurt-amMain, 1982, in German)
The ratio of some Latin American and European countries’
(including Russia/USSR) GDP per capita to the world
average, 1929-1970
Countries
1929
1938
1950
1960
1970
France
2. 47
2. 30
2. 33
2. 55
2. 92
Germany/FRG
2. 30
2. 67
1. 91
2. 89
3. 03
United Kingdom
2. 79
3. 11
3. 14
2. 92
2. 70
Russia/USSR
0. 74
1. 12
1. 27
1. 34
1. 40
Argentina
2. 32
2. 12
2. 23
1. 90
1. 84
Brazil
0. 59
0. 67
0. 75
0. 80
0. 77
Chile
1. 80
1. 63
1. 71
1. 47
1. 32
Mexico
0. 79
0. 72
0. 93
0. 95
0. 95
Venezuela
1. 82
2. 15
3. 32
3. 32
2. 73
World
in average *)
1. 00
1. 00
1. 00
1. 00
1. 00
Limits of Import Substitution
Industrialisation to itself (Latin
America)
• 1) A shortage of material, financial, and
human resources;
• 2) Conservation of the internal centralperipheral structure;
• 3) Necessity to enlarge importation of
capital goods and to maintain the
traditional export;
• 4) Impossibility to redistribute national
income in extending degree
The structure of the external trade of Brazil, 19601984
100%
0,3%
0,1%
90%
80%
58,5%
70%
60%
50%
Other
Primary goods
Manufactured goods
97,5%
40%
30%
41,4%
20%
10%
0%
2,2%
Brazil – dynamics of GDP (1965-1980) and
the public external debt (1965-1975)
5,0
4,5
4,0
1965 = 1,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
GDP, 1965-1980
The public external
debt, 1965-1975
Brazil – skyrocketing growth of the external
debt, 1978 – 1980 – 1985, billions US$
120,000
101,920
100,000
80,000
70,025
60,000
52,285
40,000
20,000
0,000
Two generations of ‘tigers’
•
•
•
•
•
The first-tier ‘tigers’
- Hong Kong
- Singapore
- Taiwan
- South Korea
• The second-tier
‘tigers’
• - Malaysia
• - Thailand
• - Indonesia (‘semitiger’)
• - The Philippines
(‘under-tiger’)
GDP p/c (US$ of 1990 on PPP) – 1960-19701980-1990
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Brazil
Mexico
Hong Kong
Singapore
Taiwan
South Korea
Ghana
Congo, DR (Zaire)
GDP p/c (US$ of 1990 on PPP) – 1960-19701980-1990
1960
1970
1980
1990
Brazil
2335
3057
5198
4923
Mexico
3155
4320
6289
6119
Hong Kong
3134
5695
10503
17541
Singapore
2310
4439
9058
14365
Taiwan
1492
2980
5869
9886
South Korea
1105
1954
4114
8704
Ghana
1378
1424
1157
1063
Congo, DR (Zaire)
755
782
617
525
Flying Geese Model
• K. Akamatsu. A Historical Pattern of Economic Growth
in Developing Countries. – The Developing
Economies, vol. 1, N 1, March – August 1962.
• P. Korhonen. The Theory of the Flying Geese Pattern
of Development and Its Interpretations. –Journal of
Peace Research, vol. 31, N 1, 1994.
• M. Tateishi. Southeast Asian Flying Geese? – In:
Southeast Asia’s Misunderstood Miracle: Industrial
Policy and Economic Development in Thailand,
Malaysia and Indonesia. Ed. by K. S. Jomo. Boulder
(Col.), Oxford: Westview Press, 1997.
• UNCTAD. Trade and Development Report 1996. N.Y.,
Geneva: UN, 1996, pp. 75-81.
The gross internal investments in fixed capital, as
percentage of GDP, in East/Southeast Asian Newly
Industrialising Countries, 1970-1995
Years
Countries
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Hong Kong
18.6
19.3
33.2
21.5
26.1
30.6
Korea
24.5
25.6
32.1
28.6
37.3
36.7
Singapore
32.5
35.1
40.7
42.2
32.5
33.7
Taiwan, prov.
n. a.
n. a.
n. a.
18.8
22.4
22.9
13.6 a)
20.3 a)
20.9 b)
23.1
28.3
28.4
Malaysia
16.1
25.1
31.1
36.3
32.4
43.0
Thailand
24.1
22.3
25.2
27.2
40.4
41.1
Indonesia
The gross internal investments in fixed capital, as
percentage of GDP, in East/Southeast Asian Newly
Industrialising Countries, 1970-1975-1980-1985-1990-1995
45,0
50,0
40,0
45,0
35,0
40,0
35,0
30,0
30,0
25,0
25,0
20,0
20,0
15,0
15,0
10,0
10,0
5,0
5,0
0,0
0,0
Hong Kong
Korea
Singapore
Taiwan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
The Developmental State
• The Developmental State. Ed. by
Meredith Woo-Cumings. Ithaca –
London: Cornell University Press,
1999
• Ha-Joon Chang. The East Asian
Development Experience: The
Miracle, the Crisis and the Future.
London – New York: Zed Books,
2006
The colonial heritage and development