Investing in Bangsamoro
for the development of
Mindanao
The 52nd Annual Meeting of the Philippine Economic Society
14 November 2014
Hotel Intercontinental Manila
Legaspi Room
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
MARITES DANGUILAN VITUG
Session Chair
Editor at Large, Rappler
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
MARIA LOURDES DAMASO LIM
Main Presenter
Regional Director, NEDA Regional Office XI
Development Opportunities of Mindanao Regions
in a Post-Comprehensive Agreement on the
Bangsamoro (CAB) Scenario
14 November2014
Philippine Economic Society (PES) 52nd Annual Meeting
Forging Ahead: The Philippines as Developed
Economy by 2050
Intercontinental Hotel, Makati City
MINDANAO
DIRECTOR MARIA LOURDES D. LIM, CESO II
Regional Director, NEDA Regional Office XI
Davao Region, Philippines and
Head Secretariat, NEDA Board-Regional Development Committee Mindanao
Spatial Consideration for Inclusive Development
Category 1: Provinces with
High Magnitude of Poor
Households
Category 2: Provinces with
Highest Poverty Incidence
Based on Population
Category 3: Thirty Provinces
Exposed to Multiple
Hazards
Source: Philippine Development Plan
Midterm Update, 2011-2016
Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, Mindanao Regions vis-a-vis National Figures
2013
2010-2013
2013 Per
2012
2000-2013 2000-2013 National Road
GDP/GRDP GDP/GRDP
Capita
Poverty
Average
Average
Density (km
(in constant
AAGR GDP/GRDP (in Incidence Employment
Under/sq. km)
2000 prices)
(%)
constant 2000 among
Rate (%) employment (As of October
( in thousand
prices)
Families (%)
Rate (%)
2012)
pesos)
(in pesos)
Philippines 6,765,458,577
5.9
68,897
19.7
91.3
19.2
0.092
NCR
2,455,306,204
6.4
195,806
2.6
85.9
12.5
1.810
Luzon
2,491,009,666
5.3
57,428
17.5
92.3
19.1
0.094
850,371,452
5.8
44,972
28.6
92.2
21.4
0.128
968,771,253
6.2
41,450
34.8
93.9
22.4
0.066
137,949,751
5.6
38,064
33.7
95.0
22.3
252,645,030
6.2
55,060
32.8
94.0
30.0
0.093
258,485,862
6.0
54,359
25.0
92.5
21.3
0.082
186,407,600
7.2
41,996
37.1
93.5
23.8
0.068
Caraga
83,550,716
9.0
32,752
31.9
92.9
24.1
0.069
ARMM
49,732,294
1.5
14,566
48.7
95.6
13.0
0.030
Visayas
Mindanao
Zamboanga
Peninsula
Northern
Mindanao
Davao
Region
SOCCSKSAR
GEN
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
0.085
End-of-Plan (2016) Targets of Mindanao Regions
Indicator
ZamPen
5.5- 7.5%
GRDP
Targets
Poverty
25- 30%
Incidence
(Families)
Employmen No target
rate
t Rate
2015
Investment P 13.71 B**
Reqts.
2016
Investment P17.74 B**
Reqts.
2015 NEP
P52.48 B
NorMin
8.5%- 9.5%
Davao Region
SOCCSKSARG
EN
CARAGA
ARMM
8.7%
9.1- 10.1%
9.9- 10.8%
5.0%
20.7%
(MDG target
for 2015)
22.3%
96%
96.2%
20.4%
18.8% (MDG target
(MDG target for for 2015); 22.75%
2015)
(RDP target 2016)*
No target rate
97%
40%
97.58%
P90.05 B
P33.95 B
P50.4 B
P25.63 B
P41.68 B
P162.41 B
P31.13 B
P31.76 B
P26.83 B
P55.33 B
P61.86 B
P54.23 B
P52.72 B
P42.22 B
P49.95 B
Investment/Budget Priorities at the National, Mindanao, Regional and Bangsamoro levels
should be outcomes-based as defined in the development plans at all levels.
Source: Updated Regional Development Plan and Result Matrices and Reg’l
Development Investment Program 2014-2016(Regions IX, X, XI, XII, XIII, ARMM); DBM
2015 National Expenditure Program
* - Source: Caraga RDP, 2011-2016
•- Source: ZamPen RDIP, 2011-2016
PROPOSED NETWORK OF GROWTH CENTERS, Mindanao, 2015-2045
Growth targets of the Bangsamoro
National
(baseline)
ARMM
(baseline)
6.3% (2009-13)
2.7% (2009-13)
6-8%
Agriculture (%, annual average)
[Rest of Mindanao]
1.6% (2009-13)
[5.7% (2009-13)]
1.5% (2009-13)
3-4%
Industry (%, annual average)
7.4% (2009-13)
5.5% (2009-13)
60-62%
Services (%, annual average)
6.7% (2009-13)
4.8% (2009-13)
5-7%
4.8% (2007-13)
6.5% (2007-13)
6-7%
Indicator
GDP/GRDP growth (%, annual
average)
Inflation (%, annual average)
GDP/GRDP per capita (pesos, current
prices)
117,603 (2013)
Transition
End-2016
29,608 (2013) P38,000-40,000
Poverty incidence (% of population)
25.2% (2012)
55.8% (2012)
50-52%
Employment rate (%)
92.9% (2013)
95.4% (2013)
95-96%
Underemployment rate (%)
19.3% (2013)
12.4% (2013)
11-12%
Source: BDP,2015-2022
Development Themes and Financing Requirements
Economy and Livelihood
Infrastructure
Social Services
Security and
Normalization
Environment and Natural
Resources
Culture and Identity &
Governance and Justice
P225 Billion for 2014-2016
Post-Conflict Development of the Bangsamoro
“transition from conflict to peace in an affected country through the
rebuilding of the socioeconomic framework of the society.”
Elements of post-conflict recovery
1. Socio-economic
2. Good Governance
3. Institutional
Post-Conflict Development of the Bangsamoro
“transition from conflict to peace in an affected country through the
rebuilding of the socioeconomic framework of the society.”
Elements of post-conflict recovery
1. Socio-economic
2. Good Governance
3. Institutional
4. Geographic/Spatial
5. Security/
Normalization
Financing
post-conflict
development
•Taxes, fees and charges
•Annual Block Grants
•Loans, grants, ODA
•Economic Agreements
•Revenue shares in
natural resources
•GOCCs & GFIs
Potential Impacts of the Bangsamoro on Mindanao Regions
• Bangsamoro growth at 6-8 percent in
2016;
• Regional economic growth improves to
double digits;
• Economic spillover to Mindanao Regions.
Growth and Investment Drivers
• Agriculture, Fishery, &
Forestry Industry
• Micro , Small and Medium
Enterprises
• Transition from grey
economies to formal
markets
• Tourism and eco-tourism
•
•
•
•
•
Mining
Renewable Energy
Palm Oil Production
Halal Industry
Islamic Banking and
Finance
BANGSAMORO: 3 Major Scenarios
1. Increase contribution to the
national output;
2. Intra- and inter-regional
trade enhanced and
boosted;
3. Correct socio-economic
disparities.
Source: dzrhnews.com
Thank you
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
PANEL DISCUSSION
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
LUISITO MONTALBO
Panelist
Undersecretary, Office of the Presidential
Adviser on the Peace Process
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
PANEL DISCUSSION
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
AMINA RASUL-BERNARDO
Panelist
President, Philippine Center for Islam and
Democracy
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
PANEL DISCUSSION
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
AMINA RASUL-BERNARDO
Panelist
President, Philippine Center for Islam and
Democracy
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
PANEL DISCUSSION
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
STEVEN ROOD
Panelist
Country Representative for the Philippines and
Pacific Island Nations, The Asia Foundation
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
OPEN FORUM
Investing in Bangsamoro for the
development of Mindanao
CONCLUDING REMARKS
Investing in Bangsamoro
for the development of
Mindanao
The 52nd Annual Meeting of the Philippine Economic Society
14 November 2014
Hotel Intercontinental Manila
Legaspi Room