Accession and Promotion
Planning Overview
CAPT Julie McNally
Medical Department & Nurse Corps OCM
14 Nov 2012
Officer Accession Planning
Demand Signal
Fleet
Requirements
End Strength
& Fiscal
Controls
N10
Planners
Source Factors for Accession Planning:
• “Locked”: USNA, NROTC, STA-21, MM,
OCS SWO (N)
•“Flexible”: OCS and Direct Accessions (DA)
OPA
N1
OCM
Input
2
Community
Factors
N13
Accession
Plan
USNA
NROTC
STA21
OCS
Other
Sources
Approves
Plan
Projected
Yield to
Planner
MMR, IST,
Recalls,
Directs
The Balancing of Accessions:
How we get there…
• Requirements
– What do we need?
• Each OCM conducts in depth analysis and presents a defense for accession need
• Influences
– CNP Direction
– Community sponsor input
– What is the trade space? (LOCKED VICE FLEXIBLE)
• Stated need applied against guidance & fiscal constraints
– Start with a number (4150) and work backwards by determining
what areas can be affected
• not “locked” or constrained by CNP policy, OCS contracts, multi-year training pipelines
– Multiple Courses of Action are developed and briefed
3
“Locked” Accession Sources
• USNA output programmed 4 years prior.
• NROTC similar, but with some flexibility with College
Program and 2 year scholarships.
• STA-21 programmed 3 years in advance.
• Thus, OCS (DA & BDCP) is used as a “throttle” to
cover shortfalls in other programs. One of the few
Direct Accession sources that can be cut within the
FY.
4
Accession Source Constraints
Data source FY13 3990+100 Accession Plan Draft as of 30JUL12/FY14-FY18 Strength & INV letter Draft as of 31MAR12/FY13 CNRC Contracts as of 30JUL 12
USNA
GOAL
FY13 PLAN TOTAL
771
OCS (DA)
MERCHANT
INTERSTUDENT
NROTC STA-21 FM ENL & OCS
INDEF
DIRECT
MARINE
SERVICE
OPTION TOTAL
GOAL GOAL GOAL (BCDP)
RECALL
GOAL
GOAL
TRANSFER
GOAL
GOAL
829
198
504
912
Can delay
OCS and
4 year 2-4 year 2-4 year 2-4 year some
pipeline pipeline pipeline pipeline BDCP
14
4yr
pipeline
25
4
188
Can
Can
Reduce Can Reduce Reduce
Current Current Current
Year
Year
Year
555
Flexibility of FY-13 Accessions
% of FY13
Plan
ROTC
21%
OCS
23%
4000
RECALL
1%
MM
ACAD
0%
DIRECT
5%
2-4 year
pipeline
USNA
19%
FY13
771
829
198
504
585
14
0
0
36
555
3492
87%
FY14
785
700
87
94
177
21
0
0
36
515
2415
60%
FY15
773
750
64
94
177
21
0
0
36
515
STUDENT
14%
IST
0%
FM ENL
(LDO/CWO)
12%
STA-21
5%
KEY
2430
61%
Inflexible; quotas fixed by contract or prior
commitment
Somewhat flexible; the Navy has not committed all
quotas
FY16
750
712
45
94
177
21
0
0
36
515
2350
59%
FY17
750
712
45
0
177
0
0
0
36
0
1720
43%
Flexible; the Navy has not committed to quotas
•Roughly 87% of the FY13 accession quotas are constrained by prior planning
•FY14-FY16 ~ 60% constrained against total of 4000
Accession Tradespace is Limited in the 12-24 Months Prior to Execution
5
Excerpt - FY 13 Accession Plan
FY13 4150
01OCT12
USNA
GOAL
DESIG
USNA
(UPPER/
LOWER
Bands)
12-14
2-5
1-3
1-2
1-2
181-191
31
21
10
NROTC
GOAL
SWO (ED Option)
SWO (IP Option)
SWO (OCEANO Option)
SWO (IW Option)
SWO (INTEL Option)
SWO 116X*
SWO(N) 116X*
Male
Female
SWO TOTALS
14
5
3
2
2
186
31
14
3
3
3
3
225
31
243
282
SUB (SE) 1175E
SUB 117X **
10
135
10
114
NROTC
(UPPER/
LOWER
Bands)
12-14
1-3
1-3
1-3
1-3
175-235
20
11
222-292
STA21
GOAL
STA-21
Target
FM
ENL
GOA
L
4
3
3
0
4
3
3
0
0
0
0
42
7
42
7
5
2
59
0
0
59
0
0
3
5
5
5
1
145
39
27
12
203
3
6
5
5
1
165
43
30
13
228
MMA/
MMR
GOAL
INDEF
RECAL
L
1
I-SERVICE
STUDEN
NRC
TRF/
DIREC
T
DIRECT
COMM
T GOAL
OPTION
GOAL
GOAL
GOAL
0
95
35
10
2
0
0
142
11
2
0
800
0
0
20
415
114
110
4
114
31
0
135
130
5
135
27
13
27-30
12-13
9
12
9-11
12-13
3
5
3
5
0
0
21
8
23
9
1
2
2
NFO 137X
PILOT 139X
AVIATION TOTALS
78
230
308
75-78
225-230
300-308
72
228
300
67-77
218-238
285-315
24
40
64
24
40
64
0
0
0
91
268
359
119
309
428
31
176
207
URL TOTALS
726
702-733
717
645-748
162
162
0
726
832
459
2
2
0
0
0
3
23
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SUB TOTALS
SPECWAR 118X
EOD 119X
HR 120X***
NUCLEAR PWR SCHL INST 121X
Naval Reactors Engineer 122X
PMP 123X
EDO 146X
AEDO 151X
AMDO 152X
PAO 165X
FAO 17XX
Meteorology/Oceanography 180X
Information Warfare 181X
Information Professional 182X
Intelligence 183X
Cyber Warfare Engineer 184X
CEC 510X
Supply 310X
JAG 250X
CHC 410X
MED SCHL****
MC 210X
DC 220X
NC 290X
MSC 230X
RL/Staff Community Recalls
RL/STAFF TOTALS
LDO
CWO
TOTAL
124
11
135
0
9
9
0
0
0
1
4
4
8
0-1
0-4
0-4
0-8
6
13
0-6
0-13
10
0
0
46
0-15
0-46
15
0-1
0-1
0-1
2
0-3
0-3
0-15
702-779
4
0
8
4
3
1
8
4
3
1
46
44-46
14
14
81
76-102
36
36
0
0
0
0
772
1
1
1
2
3
3
0
4
798
0
721-850
198
198
144
138
6
144
107
0
0
15
4
3
7
38
1
51
8
39
1
55
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
46
40
60
85
61
100
1
7
1
24
2
40
28
86
260
0
0
496
986
283
1115
0
0
0
0
107
14
4
237
173
TOTAL
GOAL
36
16
14
10
6
610
108
4
4
4
31
30
1
31
Male
Female
31
0
NRC
OCS
Contracted
NRC
AP
to Date
GOAL
GOAL
(AS OF
26SEP12)
106
565
0
415
9
2
0
0
73
38
5
5
10
0
3
3
6
0
0
0
273
774
1047
23
11
8
0
2373
0
0
0
5
23
21
0
0
0
14
4
0
8
48
6
70
5
74
104
53
52
49
258
101
238
234
0
1367
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
23
12
1
1
1
15
2
2
2
3
3
6
37
23
8
24
65
110
6
37
47
8
24
65
110
250
75
65
82
288
519
24
1
314
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23
35
9
314
237
173
288
519
6
4150
Officer Promotion Basics
• Promotions are a function of:
– Requirements
• Defined by Officer Programmed Authorizations (OPA)
• Includes both designator discrete and non discrete
1000/1020/1050 OPA
– Vacancies
• Promotions, Retirements, Resig’s, Lat Transfers
• Legal limits
• DOPMA Grade Table - Limits the number of CAPTs, CDRs, &
LCDRs based on total officer strength
7
Legal Limits
Grade
LAW
DoD
Navy
(Title 10 §623)
(DODINST 1320.13)
(SECNAVINST 1420.1B)
OPP
CAPT
CDR
LCDR
LT
LTJG
FLOW OPP
50%
“Relatively similar 70%
opportunity for
80%
promotion in each
AFQ
of the next five
years”
AFQ
FLOW
21-23 yrs
15-17 yrs
9-11 yrs
3.5 yrs
1.5 yrs
OPP
40-60%
60-80%
70-90%
AFQ
AFQ
FLOW
21-23 yrs
15-17 yrs
9-11 yrs
4 yrs
2 yrs
8
Promotion Basics
•
•
•
Flowpoint: Average years of service when a due course
officer is promoted to the next grade
Opportunity: the in-zone possibility of selection
Selection Rate: Percentage of all officers selected for
promotion
Selections (AZ + IZ + BZ)
= Selection Rate
Total Officers in Zone
– Max below zone - 10% (statutory limit)
– No above zone limits (by law or policy)
– All officers on the Active Duty List are considered
9
Promotion Basics
•
•
•
•
Start with FY beginning inventory
Add gains (lateral transfer, accessions)
Subtract losses (retire, resign, lateral transfer etc.)
Compare total against FY Authorized Strength
•
•
If total < Auth Strength, select the difference
If total > Auth Strength, no selections
Begin INV
600
Auth Strength
600
Gains
+ 10
Sum
-
550
Losses
- 60
Difference
+
50
Sum
= 550
50 Selections for Promotion
10
Promotion Basics
•
Example - If 50 is the fixed number of promotions...
Zone size
125
100
83
•
#Promotions
50
50
50




Percent Opportunity
40%
50%
60%
Opportunity, Zone Size, and Flowpoint are all related
–
•
=
=
=
=
Higher OPPORTUNITY means smaller ZONES, which means
longer (increased) FLOWPOINT
Larger zones will increase the FOS rate
11
Questions/ Discussion
12