House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
Manuel Adelino (Duke)
Antoinette Schoar (MIT and NBER)
Felipe Severino (MIT)
September 2013
Motivation
o
Role of collateral for easing credit constraints and for economic growth.
o Hart and Moore (1998); Kiyotaki and Moore (1997); Bernanke, Gertler and
Gilchrist (1999); Rampini and Viswanathan (2010).
o Small firms are especially sensitive to fluctuations in access to financing (e.g.
Gertler and Gilchrist, 1992).
o
Financial constraints and small business creation (Gentry and Hubbard,
2004; Hurst and Lusardi, 2004; Cagetti and De Nardi, 2006).
o
Few settings where we can identify pure shocks to the value of collateral
that are uncorrelated with investment opportunities.
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
2
Motivation (cont.)
o
Ongoing debate about the channels that drove employment dynamics over
the last decade.
o
Currently two main hypotheses:
o Aggregate demand induced by home equity based borrowing (Romer, 2011,
Mian and Sufi, 2011)
o Longer term structural unemployment was “masked” by boom in the
construction industries, which created demand for construction labor
(Kocherlakota, 2010; Charles, Hurst and Notowidigdo, 2012)
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
3
This paper
o
Increase in house prices between 2002 to 2007 reduced credit constraints
on homeowners and dampened unemployment rate
o Allowed people to start very small businesses
o Effect is stronger in industries with below median capital needs
o
This mechanism is distinct from the
o “Aggregate demand” effect – not driven by non-tradable industries
o Construction industry specific labor demand
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
4
Identification
o
Main concern is that common unobserved factors could be driving up real
estate prices and new firm starts
o Expectations about income growth, regional investment opportunities, reverse
causality.
o
Instrument for exogenous shock to house prices with the Saiz (2010)
elasticity measure as an instrument for house prices.
o In low elasticity areas increases in demand for housing translates into higher
prices, in high elasticity areas the main effect is on volume / new construction
o Used also in Mian and Sufi (2010, 2011), Charles et al (2012), Chaney, Sraer and
Thesmar (2011), Cvijanovic (2012) and Kleiner (2013).
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
5
County Elasticity of Housing Supply
Low
Elasticity
High
Elasticity
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
6
Identification (cont.)
o
Use ex ante distribution of establishment sizes
o Smaller firms should be more affected under collateral channel, since they are
more likely to be constrained and to have limited alternative sources of financing
o
But… shock to house prices could affect local demand and smaller
establishments may be more sensitive to local demand shocks (Kashyap and
Stein, 1994)
o Heterogeneity of required start up capital
o
o
Effect should be more pronounced at the low end of distribution
Compare across industries:
o
Exclude non-tradable, limit to manufacturing.
o
Within manufacturing, distinguish by amount of capital and by distance shipped.
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
7
Data Sources
o
Census County Business Patterns:
o
County level establishments by size category and industry level (4-digit NAICS).
o
Size categories are: 1-4 employees, 5-9, 10-19, 20-49, 50-99, 100-249, …
o
We aggregate all establishments above 50 employees into one category.
o
House prices at the MSA level from FHFA
o
o
Elasticity measure from Albert Saiz’s website (MSA level).
Capital needed to start a firm from Survey of Business Owners Public Use Microdata Sample
at 2-digit NAICS level.
o
Question: “Amount of start-up or acquisition capital”
o
Distance shipped by industry and state from 2007 Commodity Flow Survey
o
Births and Deaths of Establishments from the Survey of US Businesses
o
No Establishment size data, industries at the 2-digit level.
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
8
Summary Statistics
Total Employment (2002)
Unemployment Rate (2002, percent)
Growth in Total Employment (02-07, percent)
Growth in DTI (02-07, percent)
Growth in Income (02-07, percent)
Growth in House Prices (02-07, percent)
Number of Counties
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
All Counties
113,918
45,454
(238,831)
5.4
5.3
(1.5)
10.6
8.2
(15.8)
51.8
42.6
(36.4)
27.6
23.9
(21.1)
33.9
26.8
(21.1)
775
High Elasticity Low Elasticity
69,057
157,523
33,228
63,286
(129,569)
(304,041)
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.4
(1.5)
(1.4)
10.2
11.0
7.5
8.9
(16.9)
(14.5)
36.6
66.3
34.9
58.3
(23.0)
(40.7)
27.2
28.0
23.0
24.5
(24.2)
(17.6)
23.5
43.7
19.4
40.9
(14.3)
(21.9)
382
393
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
9
Empirical Methodology
Δ02−07 𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑗𝑧 = 𝛼 + 𝛽1 Δ𝐻𝑃𝑗02−07 + 𝛽2 1𝑖 + 𝛽3 1𝑖 Δ𝐻𝑃𝑗02−07 + 𝛾𝑋𝑗 + 1𝑧 + 𝜀𝑖,𝑗
o
Establishment Size indexed by i, county by j and industry by z.
o
Industry FE address the possibility that the mix of industries affected by
the shock is correlated with average establishment size.
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
10
All Industries
First Stage
(1)
-0.09***
(0.02)
Housing Supply Elasticity
Growth in House Prices
All Industries
(WLS)
(2)
All Industries (IV)
(3)
(4)
(5)
0.19***
(0.04)
0.05
(0.06)
-0.06
(0.10)
0.02
(0.03)
Growth in House Prices * 1-4 Employees
0.03
(0.03)
0.20***
(0.05)
0.26**
(0.09)
0.16***
(0.05)
Growth in House Prices * 5-9 Employees
-0.02
(0.03)
0.08**
(0.04)
0.17
(0.10)
0.00
(0.04)
Growth in House Prices * 10-19 Employees
-0.02
(0.02)
0.01
(0.04)
0.06
(0.09)
-0.05
(0.04)
Growth in House Prices * 20-49 Employees
0.01
(0.02)
0.00
(0.04)
0.07
(0.07)
-0.07**
(0.03)
Log of the Population
0.00
(0.03)
-0.02***
(0.01)
-0.02***
(0.01)
-0.04***
(0.01)
Percent College Educated
0.00
(0.00)
0.00**
(0.00)
0.00**
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
-0.01***
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
Workforce as a Percentage of Population
-0.69
(0.63)
-1.09***
(0.19)
-1.11***
(0.19)
-0.86***
(0.22)
Percent of Homes Owner-occupied
0.00
(0.00)
0.00**
(0.00)
0.00**
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
China Import Share in County (2005)
0.10
(0.91)
0.09
(0.23)
0.12
(0.23)
-0.08
(0.32)
4-Digit Industry Fixed Effects
County Fixed Effects
Number of Observations
R2
731
0.30
3,653
0.27
3,653
0.22
Y
373,576
0.30
Percent Employed (2000 Census)
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
Start-up
Capital <
Y
21,962
0.02
11
Amount of Start-up capital
Start-up Capital < P50 (IV)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Start-up Capital > P50 (IV)
(9)
(10)
(11)
Housing Supply Elasticity
Growth in House Prices
-0.01
(0.07)
-0.04
(0.13)
-0.11***
(0.04)
0.06
(0.07)
-0.07
(0.10)
0.10**
(0.04)
Growth in House Prices * 1-4 Employees
0.33***
(0.07)
0.32**
(0.12)
0.31***
(0.06)
0.14**
(0.06)
0.18**
(0.09)
0.10*
(0.06)
Growth in House Prices * 5-9 Employees
0.19***
(0.05)
0.14
(0.15)
0.17***
(0.05)
0.04
(0.06)
0.19**
(0.08)
-0.10*
(0.05)
Growth in House Prices * 10-19 Employees
0.14***
(0.05)
0.02
(0.12)
0.10*
(0.05)
-0.07
(0.06)
0.09
(0.09)
-0.12**
(0.05)
Growth in House Prices * 20-49 Employees
0.13***
(0.05)
0.10
(0.10)
0.06
(0.05)
-0.07
(0.05)
0.02
(0.08)
-0.14***
(0.04)
3,653
0.21
Y
196,027
0.39
Y
21,954
0.00
3,651
0.14
Y
177,549
0.10
Y
21,949
0.03
4-Digit Industry Fixed Effects
County Fixed Effects
Number of Observations
R2
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
12
Exclude Non-Tradables, Restrict to Manufacturing
Drop Construction
-0.09
(0.10)
Drop Const. and
Non-Trad.
-0.12
(0.10)
Drop Const., NonTrad. and F.I.R.E.
-0.14
(0.10)
Manufacturing
-0.17
(0.11)
Manufacturing
(Tradable)
-0.16
(0.12)
Growth in House Prices * 1-4 Employees
0.27***
(0.09)
0.32***
(0.09)
0.35***
(0.10)
0.13*
(0.07)
0.15*
(0.09)
Growth in House Prices * 5-9 Employees
0.19*
(0.10)
0.21*
(0.11)
0.24**
(0.11)
0.12
(0.08)
0.10
(0.09)
Growth in House Prices * 10-19 Employees
0.08
(0.09)
0.12
(0.09)
0.12
(0.09)
0.11
(0.11)
0.16
(0.11)
Growth in House Prices * 20-49 Employees
0.08
(0.06)
0.12*
(0.06)
0.11*
(0.06)
0.01
(0.12)
-0.05
(0.09)
Y
Y
325,349
0.29
0.04**
0.00***
0.00***
Y
Y
264,901
0.30
0.02**
0.00***
0.00***
Y
Y
242,510
0.31
0.02**
0.00***
0.00***
Y
Y
55,345
0.02
0.95
0.85
0.33
Y
Y
44,649
0.02
0.48
0.91
0.10*
Growth in House Prices
Controls
4-Digit Industry Fixed Effects
Number of Observations
R2
Growth HP * 1-4 E. = Growth HP * 5-9 E.
Growth HP * 1-4 E. = Growth HP * 10-19 E.
Growth HP * 1-4 E. = Growth HP * 20-49 E.
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
13
Summary Stats, Distance Shipped
Average
Std. Dev.
Percentiles:
1%
25%
50%
75%
99%
Number of Observations
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
Industry x State
630.2
368.4
Industry
651.7
218.3
25.0
378.1
600.8
817.7
1,789.2
950
168.9
559.3
620.4
831.7
1,021.3
21
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
14
Subgroups of Manufacturing Industries
Growth in House Prices
Manufacturing, Manufacturing, High
Low Dep. Ext. Fin.
Dep. Ext. Fin.
-0.24**
-0.09
(0.12)
(0.13)
Manufacturing, Short
Distance Shipped <P50
-0.11
(0.17)
Manufacturing, Long
Distance Shipped >P50
-0.29**
(0.14)
Growth in House Prices * 1-4 Employees
0.22*
(0.13)
0.04
(0.13)
0.07
(0.14)
0.21**
(0.09)
Growth in House Prices * 5-9 Employees
0.25**
(0.13)
0.01
(0.11)
0.11
(0.17)
0.20**
(0.09)
Growth in House Prices * 10-19 Employees
0.10
(0.12)
0.05
(0.14)
-0.03
(0.17)
0.24**
(0.11)
Growth in House Prices * 20-49 Employees
0.22
(0.22)
-0.15
(0.11)
0.06
(0.30)
0.04
(0.12)
Controls
4-Digit Industry Fixed Effects
Number of Observations
R2
Y
Y
19,027
0.02
Y
Y
34,675
0.02
Y
Y
27,599
0.02
Y
Y
27,294
0.02
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
15
Magnitude of the effect
o
First, calculate the “aggregate demand” effect as in Mian and Sufi (2011).
o
Compute effect for non-tradable industries, aggregate for all industries
o
Effect is ~2.5M jobs created, or about 40% of all jobs created in the 660 counties.
o
Use the effect for manufacturing industries as the baseline specification
o
Coefficient of all small firms relative to large firms
o
Effect is responsible for 1.7M jobs, or 28% of net job creation in the 660 counties.
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
16
Establishment Births and Deaths
Growth in House Prices
Births of Est.
(1)
(2)
0.46***
0.46***
(0.12)
(0.12)
Deaths of Est.
(3)
(4)
0.31***
0.28***
(0.07)
(0.08)
Net Creation of Est.
(5)
(6)
0.16**
0.18***
(0.06)
(0.06)
Log of the Population
-0.01
(0.01)
-0.01
(0.02)
0.00
(0.01)
0.01
(0.01)
-0.01*
(0.01)
-0.02***
(0.01)
Percent College Educated
0.01*
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00*
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00*
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
Percent Employed (2000 Census)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
-2.34***
(0.67)
-1.78**
(0.79)
-1.06**
(0.40)
-0.65
(0.49)
-1.28***
(0.29)
-1.13***
(0.33)
Percent of Homes Owner-occupied
0.00*
(0.00)
0.00*
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00**
(0.00)
0.00**
(0.00)
China Import Share in County (2005)
-0.62
(0.57)
-0.45
(0.67)
-0.46
(0.35)
-0.60
(0.40)
-0.16
(0.29)
0.16
(0.35)
2-Digit NAICS Fixed Effects
Number of Observations
R2
731
0.29
Y
13,482
0.20
731
0.21
Y
13,482
0.22
731
0.31
Y
13,482
0.16
Workforce as a Percentage of Population
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
Births,
17
Proprietorships
Start-up Capital < Start-up Capital >
P50 (Census)
P50 (Census)
-0.04
0.05
(0.07)
(0.07)
BEA Data
0.02
(0.06)
Census Data
0.03
(0.06)
Growth in House Prices * Proprietorships
0.14**
(0.07)
0.06
(0.06)
0.12*
(0.06)
0.07
(0.08)
Growth in House Prices * 1-4 Employees
0.20***
(0.05)
0.20***
(0.05)
0.33***
(0.07)
0.13**
(0.06)
Growth in House Prices * 5-9 Employees
0.08**
(0.04)
0.08**
(0.04)
0.19***
(0.05)
0.04
(0.06)
Growth in House Prices * 10-19 Employees
0.01
(0.04)
0.01
(0.04)
0.14***
(0.05)
-0.07
(0.06)
Growth in House Prices * 20-49 Employees
0.00
(0.04)
0.00
(0.04)
0.13***
(0.05)
-0.07
(0.05)
Controls
Number of Observations
R2
Y
4,381
0.48
Y
4,384
0.38
Y
4,384
0.31
Y
4,382
0.28
Growth in House Prices
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
18
Denial Rates
o
Higher house prices could make banks more “lax” on all their lending,
including small business lending
o
Consider denial rates of mortgages for home purchase in this period
o
Are banks approving a higher percentage of loans in low elasticity areas?
Denial Rate (2002)
Change in Denial Rate (02-07)
Number of applications (2002)
Applications per Household (2002)
Change in Volume (02-07)
Number of Counties
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
Low Elasticity High Elasticity
0.10
0.13
0.01
-0.01
(0.05)
(0.05)
10,807
4,329
0.08
0.07
-0.02
0.07
(0.26)
(0.21)
394
382
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
Difference
0.026***
.-0.095***
19
Denial Rates
Denial Rates
-0.026***
-0.016***
(0.004)
(0.003)
Elasticity
0.072***
(0.024)
Volume
0.058***
(0.016)
Log of the Population
0.014***
(0.003)
-0.065**
(0.029)
Percent College Educated
-0.001**
(0.000)
0.002
(0.002)
Percent Employed (2000 Census)
-0.001
(0.001)
-0.002
(0.003)
Workforce as a Percentage of Population
-0.199**
(0.090)
-0.460
(0.645)
Percent of Homes Owner-occupied
-0.001*
-0.007***
(0.000)
(0.002)
-0.339***
(0.102)
-0.010
(0.974)
China Import Share in County (2005)
Number of Observations
R2
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
776
0.30
774
0.49
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
776
0.10
774
0.19
20
Employment, Unemployment and Migration
Total
Employment
0.09
(0.06)
Unemp. Rate
-1.29**
(0.66)
Net
Migration
-0.16
(0.12)
Unemp.
-0.20
(0.14)
Inflows
0.19
(0.12)
Outflows
0.34**
(0.17)
-0.02***
(0.01)
-0.01
(0.02)
0.03
(0.10)
0.00
(0.01)
-0.07***
(0.01)
-0.07***
(0.01)
Percent College Educated
0.00**
(0.00)
-0.01***
(0.00)
-0.03***
(0.01)
0.00
(0.00)
0.01***
(0.00)
0.00***
(0.00)
Percent Employed (2000 Census)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.04**
(0.02)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
0.00
(0.00)
-1.15***
(0.23)
-0.13
(0.52)
3.94
(2.67)
-0.01
(0.19)
-0.63*
(0.34)
-0.62**
(0.26)
Percent of Homes Owner-occupied
0.00**
(0.00)
0.00***
(0.00)
0.03***
(0.01)
0.00**
(0.00)
0.00***
(0.00)
-0.01***
(0.00)
China Import Share in County (2005)
-0.23
(0.28)
-0.60
(0.64)
-4.76
(3.65)
0.19
(0.29)
-1.08***
(0.28)
-1.27***
(0.44)
Number of Observations
R2
731
0.24
721
0.26
721
0.33
731
731
0.41
731
0.18
Growth in House Prices
Log of the Population
Workforce as a Percentage of Population
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
21
Effect on Non-Tradable Industries
Growth in House Prices
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
Non-Tradable Industries
0.21*
(0.12)
Growth in House Prices * 1-4 Employees
-0.12
(0.11)
Growth in House Prices * 5-9 Employees
-0.12
(0.11)
Growth in House Prices * 10-19 Employees
-0.25*
(0.14)
Growth in House Prices * 20-49 Employees
-0.22*
(0.12)
Controls
4-Digit Industry Fixed Effects
Number of Observations
R2
Growth HP * 1-4 E. = Growth HP * 5-9 E.
Growth HP * 1-4 E. = Growth HP * 10-19 E.
Growth HP * 1-4 E. = Growth HP * 20-49 E.
Y
Y
60,448
0.07
0.95
0.10*
0.20
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
22
Conclusion
o
Employment at very small establishments responded strongly to the
increase in house prices between 2002 and 2007.
o Large firms do not experience a similar effect.
o Results are stronger for industries where the amount of capital needed is lower.
o
Results are not concentrated in non-tradable industries or in construction.
o
Evidence that the availability of collateral is important for small business
creation.
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
23
Start-up capital by industry
Industry
Construction
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Admin. and Supp. and Waste Mgmt and Remediation Svcs
Transportation and Warehousing
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Educational Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Wholesale Trade
Finance and Insurance
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Information
Accommodation and Food Services
Manufacturing
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Utilities
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
Average Start-Up
NAICS2 Amount (USD)
23
78,372
54
87,879
56
91,278
48
131,893
11
146,033
61
156,893
81
161,995
42
188,085
52
203,799
62
214,889
44
216,302
71
218,061
53
220,691
51
236,126
72
273,186
31
363,166
55
488,681
22
601,149
21
673,609
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
Above/Below
Median
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
24
Percentage of Employment by Employment Size Category
1-4
Employees
5-9
Employees
10-19
Employees
20-49
Employees
50+
Employees
9,101
9.4
8.9
9,122
8.0
9.0
12,819
12.5
12.1
21,466
10.6
18.3
72,939
13.3
51.7
6,213
10.9
12.1
5,566
11.1
10.8
7,350
13.4
12.8
11,012
14.2
16.6
39,921
25.0
47.7
2,888
6.6
5.8
3,556
4.3
7.4
5,468
13.0
11.7
10,453
9.4
20.5
33,018
9.3
54.6
Employment in All Sectors
Total
Growth (02-07)
Percentage of Total
Employment in Firms <P50 of Start-Up Capital
Total
Growth (02-07)
Percentage of Total
Employment in Firms >P50 of Start-Up Capital
Total
Growth (02-07)
Percentage of Total
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
25
Distance shipped by industry
NAICS
311
312
313
314
315
316
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
339
Description
Food Manuf.
Beverage & Tobacco Product Manuf.
Textile Mills
Textile Product Mills
Apparel Manuf.
Leather & Allied Product Manuf.
Wood Product Manuf.
Paper Manuf.
Printing & Related Support Activities
Petroleum & Coal Products Manuf.
Chemical Manuf.
Plastics & Rubber Products Manuf.
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manuf.
Primary Metal Manuf.
Fabricated Metal Product Manuf.
Machinery Manuf.
Computer & Electronic Product Manuf.
Electrical Eq., App., & Component Manuf.
Transportation Equipment Manuf.
Furniture & Related Product Manuf.
Miscellaneous Manuf.
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
Industry-State Deciles
1
2
3
1
2
7
15
16
8
2
1
4
3
2
8
1
1
2
1
2
8
12
13
2
3
7
5
11
5
27
10
4
1
1
1
1
3
16
20
12
2
4
3
2
3
1
1
3
1
2
1
2
4
1
5
2
8
2
4
10
3
4
2
1
4
9
13
2
7
3
9
11
1
2
3
11
5
13
6
2
3
3
3
6
4
4
6
5
2
11
8
8
10
1
5
6
6
1
3
3
8
2
1
9
12
7
7
7
5
5
6
3
5
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
7
6
2
5
4
4
2
8
4
1
6
6
4
5
2
2
3
1
9
4
2
8
6
3
3
3
3
1
8
8
4
8
6
2
2
7
7
5
5
2
7
9
5
2
12
10
6
10
3
13
5
6
10
3
15
4
2
9
10
1
3
7
4
11
1
1
1
1
7
4
9
15
10
9
1
10
26
Effect of one σ change in independent variable
1-4
Employees
5-9
Employees
10-19
Employees
20-49
Employees
50+
Employees
5.2
9.4
9,101
2.7
8.0
9,122
1.3
12.5
12,819
1.1
10.6
21,466
1.1
13.3
72,939
6.8
10.9
6,213
3.9
11.1
5,566
2.9
13.4
7,350
2.7
14.2
11,012
-0.1
25.0
39,921
4.2
6.6
2,888
2.1
4.3
3,556
-0.1
13.0
5,468
-0.2
9.4
10,453
1.3
9.3
33,018
Employment in All Sectors
Effect of 1σ change in HP
Growth (02-07)
Employment as of 2002
Employment in Firms <P50 of Start-Up Capital
Effect of 1σ change in HP
Growth (02-07)
Employment as of 2002
Employment in Firms >P50 of Start-Up Capital
Effect of 1σ change in HP
Growth (02-07)
Employment as of 2002
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
27
Adelino, Schoar and Severino
House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
2006-12
2006-08
2006-04
2005-12
2005-08
2005-04
2004-12
2004-08
2004-04
2003-12
2003-08
2003-04
2002-12
2002-08
2002-04
2001-12
2001-08
2001-04
2000-12
2000-08
2000-04
1999-12
1999-08
1999-04
1998-12
1998-08
1998-04
1997-12
Conventional Mortgage Rates, 1997-2006
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
28