THE NEXT FIFTEEN YEARS
Tim Heffernan
August 12, 2014
2030 – The Futurist Say…
2030 – The Futurist Say…
When our licenses were created…
CTO of FCC Dr. Henning Schulzrinne, Chief Technology Officer of
the FCC (VoIP protocol inventor)
When?
no single transition date!
2013
switching
(core)
TDM
VoIP
“wireless network is 99% wired”
fixed 4G
access
E.164
numbering
human-visible
IETF86
hidden
7
Today
Voice is passe. Fixed
is marginal. Low
prices for domestic
and international
calls.
Falling
revenues
More, right
spectrum needed
to support
wireless services
Converged services
Data is growing
and expected to
grow
exponentially.
Dependency on
wireless in region
ase
ed as part of
rogram.
ers for
ention’s
r Health
s selected
verage for the
ed U.S.
rom NHIS,
imates from
ears. The
person
ducts
he year to
lth status,
nd health
. The survey
about
whether
as a wireless
telephone numbers, to permit the
recontacting of survey participants.
Starting in 2003, additional questions
were asked to determine whether a
family had a landline telephone. NHIS
The survey respondent for each
family was also asked whether “anyone
in your family has a working cellular
telephone.” Families are identified as
Landline  mobile
Percentages of adults and children living in
households with only wireless telephone service or
no telephone service: United States, 2003–2012
45
Children with
wireless service only
40
40.6
35
34.0
30
Percent
ent concerning
s of these
25
Adults with
wireless service
only
20
15
10
5
Adults with no
telephone service
Children with no
telephone service
2.2
1.9
0
Jan–Jun Jan–Jun Jan–Jun Jan–Jun Jan–Jun Jan–Jun Jan–Jun Jan–Jun Jan–Jun Jan–Jun
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
NOTE: Adults are aged 18 and over; children are under age 18.
DATA SOURCE: CDC/NCHS, National Health Interview Survey.
Figure 1
IETF86
9
Lines are disappearing, but maintenance
costs are constant
100
JSI Capital Advisors projection
80
voice only
(DSL: 20 M)
60
40
Residential
20
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2009
2008
2007
per-line monthly
maintenance
cost
2010
Business
0
$17.57
$2.72
voice revenue/line:
$50
dis
10
Caller ID spoofing
• Easily available on (SIP) trunks –
can be legitimate
• Used for vishing, robocalling,
swatting, anonymity breaking, …
• Caller ID Act of 2009: Prohibit any
person or entity from transmitting
misleading or inaccurate caller ID
information with the intent to
defraud, cause harm, or wrongfully
obtain anything of value.
• Also: phantom traffic rules
11
2012-2017
Unified License Now To Address Trends
Macro Trends
+Economic
Mobile
Pricing
Fixed TDM Voice
Cloud
Mobile Backhaul
+Technical
+Social
ICT
Virtualization
Wi-Fi
Storage
Smartphone
Mobile Evolution 2G>3G>4G
Tablets
M2M Communications
Telepresence/Video
Mobile Data
Revenue
Security
OTT/VoIP
Data Analytics
-T
-S
-E
Social