Southern European Seas: Assessing and
Modelling Ecosystem changes
Scientific Objectives
1. Assess the changes or regime shifts in the SES ecosystems over
the last 50 years and assess the potential mechanisms that relate
these changes to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings.
2. Assess the current status of the SES ecosystems through analysis
of existing and newly collected data as well as through model
simulations.
3. Predict changes in the SES ecosystem responses to likely changes
in climate and anthropogenic forcings during the next five decades.
4. Assess and predict changes in the ability of the ecosystems to
provide goods and services (with potentially high societal
importance).
• Goods: tourism and fisheries
• Services: ecosystem stability through conservation of
biodiversity, and mitigation of climate change through carbon
sequestration
Temperature differences by 1.5 oC in
the past 20 years in the Aegean Sea
Assessing the past changes
Collection of existing datasets
(more than 300) on:
Seawater T, S, DO, Nutrients, DOC
Phytoplankton & Zooplankton
Fish stock biomass
Habitat Types
Biodiversity & Alien Species
Geochemical parameters
Budgets of atmospheric and river
inputs
Validation of models
Assessment
Limitations: Few data sets on
continuous basis
Raitsos et al, 2010
Temperature differences by 1.5oC in
the past 20 years in the Aegean Sea
3
3.5
3
2.5
Alien
anom 85
Invasive
species
Hellenic
SST Waters Anom
r2=0.68, P= 0.0099
2.5
2
1.5
2
1
1.5
0.5
1
0
0.5
-0.5
0
-1
-0.5
-1.5
-1
-1.5
-2
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Raitsos et al, 2010
River inputs of nutrients
...In addition to climate, other changes should be accounted for...
e.g.: the land based nutrient inputs into SES
Affected also by
environmental
policy.
e.g. the reduction of
phosphates in river
waters
Atmospheric inputs
of DIN and DIP
comparable to river
discharges.
Ludwig et al (2009)
Posidonia oceanica Meadows
~1/3 of Posidonia oceanica meadows have been lost in the last
50 years. The density of P. oceanica seems to be decreased by
about 50%
Counting the decrease of the Posidonia meadows,
CO2 sequestration in the Mediterranean seems to be less by 1/3
Marbà, Díaz-Almela and Duarte, in prep.
New data sets -Transects of expeditions
RO
BG
FR
ES
IT
TU
Sediment traps
Intercalibration stations
RU
GR
TR
IS
Collection of existing
and new data in sub-regional seas
Western Black Sea
shelf ecosystem
3 cruises
NW Mediterranean
shelf ecosystem
3 cruises
North-eastern
Black Sea shelf
ecosystem
TSS and N. Aegean
Sea exchange
3 cruises
2 cruises + NURC cruise
Sicily Straits exchange
Gibraltar Strait and
Alboran Sea exchange
gliders
1+2 cruises
Eastern Mediterranean
shelf ecosystem
5 cruises, 3 in
Haifa Section
Current status
• Impact of EMT (on the nutrient concentrations)
• Increased nutrient inputs
• Atmospheric inputs important to the budgets
BS State:
recovering
after the 90’s
Marked seasonality
CS measurements indicate that there is significant natural capacity of the seafloor
of the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea to absorb and store atmospheric CO2
Current Status of the Black Sea
 Average water temperature in the upper 100m layer higher
than any historical value
 Hydrological structure and dynamics of the waters determine
hydrochemical structure and the quantitative characteristics of
species of plankton and nekton in the pelagic zone
 NE and South: P-limited in winter while N-limited in fall
 West: P-limited in both seasons
 Rates of primary production in the W part were 2-3 times
higher compared to the E part
 Productivity decreased towards the open sea, reaching a range
of oligotrophy–mesotrophy.
Synthesis Deliverable 10.6.2
Predict Ecosystem Changes
2030-2050 -regional models, 2080-2100 -basin scale models
 In 2050, 1/4 of the freshwater inputs compared to 1960 will be lost in the
Med
 Nutrients variability may regionally decrease in the N but strongly increase
in S & E
 The 21st century will be “warmer” and the vertical structure of the water
column will increase its stability (longer permanence of the mixed layer in
the euphotic but reduced nutrient supply from the deeper ocean )
 The 21st century Mediterranean thermohaline circulation seems to slow
down with respect to current conditions, in particular the deep circulation
and so the deep Mediterranean parts seem to be more ‘stagnant’
 Progressive warming evolves with a northward shift of the surface
isotherm, potentially paving the way for meridionalization processes in the
basin
 Indigenous species with warm-water affinity expand their habitat ranges
northward, sometimes at the expenses of the residential cold-water species
(tropicalization)
Loss of important Mediterranean carbon sinks. The
forcasted seawater warming will lead to the functional
extinction of Posidonia oceanica in the Balearic region.
Time evolution of Posidonia
oceanica shoot density
relative to current density
for different simulations,
considering warming and
contamination impacts.
The expected evolution
assuming no contamination.
The shadowed areas represent the uncertainty ranges (estimated
ad the 90% of the Montecarlo distribution).
Jorda et al (2012)
Changes in the ability of the SES ecosystems
to provide goods and services
Modellers
• Defined the main diagnostics/ indicators that can be extracted from the output
of the coupled numerical models in order to provide information for the socioeconomists. CHALLENGE: to define indirect indicators for the provision of
goods and services.
Socio-economists
 Identified the ecosystem functions (observed and predicted from model
simulations) that are pertinent to the selected goods and services as well as their
changes during the last decades
 Carried out scoping analysis to understand and evaluate key stakeholder
perceptions referring to the future ability of the SES marine environments.
 Developed a sound methodological approach for integrating scientific
modelling and socio-economic analysis.
 Transferred and/or adapted state-of-the-art analytical and policy tools to
investigate the economic welfare implications of alternative development
scenarios in the SES ecosystems.
Valuation studies
Questionnaires to valuate the good “Tourism” - Gulf of Lions
Consumers seemed to be willing to pay to improve the situation. For the attribute
“important biotopes” the average WTP (willingness to pay) is estimated at 29.65€
in order to prevent 20% decrease and gain 20% of important biotopes area in 20
years compared with today levels. Respondents are also willing to pay an amount
of 19.14€ to reduce the probability of “jellyfish outbreaks” from 0.9 to 0.1 for two
decades.
• 25% of the respondents were guided in their choice by the probability of
jellyfish outbreaks, while 38.6% stated that their choice was guided by the
attribute ‘important biotopes’.
• 20% of the respondents rejected the idea of paying any amount about measures
that sustain important biotopes or protect from jellyfish outbreaks. The main
reason (15.3%) is that respondents believe that governments and not citizens
must pay the implementation costs of measures.
Economic valuation of the service “Carbon Sequestration”
Mediterranean as a whole is worth more than a billion dollars as a sink for CO2
according to the SESAME measurements
More information
Download SESAME publications from www.sesame-ip.eu
(under “Documents”)
Link to SESAME’s database
Journal of Marine Systems – Special Issue
Thank you
Project Duration: 48 months
Start: 1st of January 2012
10 Work Packages
Budget 12,973,124 €
Project Summary
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Identify the interacting patterns of natural and human-derived
pressures, assess their impact on marine ecosystems and design an
effective and innovative research framework based on sound
scientific knowledge.
Design an innovative, small research vessel to serve as a scientific
survey tool in very shallow areas.
Use appropriate scenarios to explore interactions between
projected human-derived and natural pressures.
Develop a framework of scenario-based adaptive policies and
management schemes to help in reaching GES. Help the selection
and application of the appropriate descriptors and indicators of the
MSFD in the SES.
Define and rank a feasible and realistic adaptation policy
framework in order to design management schemes.
Promote the principles and objectives of MSFD across the SES.