So What Can We Learn from Stakeholder
Allocation Games?
Gregory Kiker, Associate Professor
Dept of Agricultural & Biological Engineering, University of Florida
Acknowledgements
• Planning for Sea Level Rise in the Matanzas Basin (NOAA funded)
– UF: Kathryn Frank, Paul Zwick, Greg Kiker
– Michael Shirley: Guana Tolomato Matanzas National Estuarine Research Reserve
(GTM NERR)
– OK State Univ: Dawn Jourdan
• Water allocation role playing in the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint River
Basin
– UF: Bill Pine
– FSU – Steve Leitman
Agenda
1. Getting local and personal: Sea Level Rise
predictions meet stakeholders in NE Florida
2. Getting even: Water Management in the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint River Basin:
The Never-ending Dixie Water War
Photo: http://www.marketingmedia.co.za
National Estuarine Research Reserve System Science Collaborative:
•
•
•
•
Guana Tolomato Matanzas National
Estuary Research Reserve
(GTMNERR)
Low elevation estuary between St
Augustine, FL (America’s oldest city)
and the Palm Coast (rapidly growing
retirement community)
NOAA-funded (3 years)
Model Runs Meet Stakeholders!
SLAMM: Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model
• Simulates the dominant processes involved in wetland conversions
and shoreline modification due to long term-sea level rise.
• The study area is divided into cells and each cell is simulated
separately
Dry Land
Various Wetlands
Open Water
2D representation
3D representation
SLAMM Inundation Model
Elevation
(Migration of Wetlands Boundaries due to Sea Level Rise)
MWHSinland
Salt Boundary
MWHinland
MTL
MLW
Distance Inland
Tidal flat TidalSalt
flatmarsh
Salt marsh
Scrub-scrub
or
Water
Scrub-scrub
or
brackish brackish
Estuarine Beach
Beach
Beach
Tidal fresh and dry
land (Inland Fresh
Marsh, Swamp)
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2010
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2020
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2030
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2040
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2050
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2060
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2070
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2080
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2090
SLAMM results
2m SLR by 2100
2100
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2010
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2020
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2030
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2040
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2050
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2060
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2070
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2080
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2090
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
SLAMM results
Pellicer Creek
2m SLR by 2100
2100
Legend
2m_2010
Value
Developed Dry Land
Swamp
Legend
Cypress Swamp
Inland Fresh Marsh
2m_2010
Value Transitional Salt Marsh
Developed
Dry
Developed
Dry Land
Regularly
Flooded
MarshLand
Swamp
Mangrove
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Cypress
Swamp
Estuarine
Beach
Inland
Inland
FreshFresh
Marsh
Tidal
Flat
Marsh
Marsh
Regularly
Flooded
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Regularly
Flooded
marsh
Mangrove
Estuarine
Water
Mangrove
Estuarine
Beach
Tidal
Creek
Beach
Tidal
Flat
Open
Ocean
Water
Ocean
Beach
Irregularly
FloodedFlooded
Marsh
Irregularly
Marsh
Inland
Open
Water
Vegetated
Tidal
Flat
Tidal
Flat
Transitional
Salt Marsh
Ocean
Beach
Transitional
Salt
Estuarine Water
How much difference is there between the sea level rise scenarios?
What general
areas are
vulnerable to
change and
habitat
migration?
What areas are vulnerable to the loss of dry land and wetland?
So How Much Will This Cost Us?
• Simple flood/value rules – 10%
flood means 10% taxable value
lost… (very conservative…)
• Under a scenario of 1 m sea
level rise by 2100, we project
that 2,639 ha and $1 billion in
land value will be lost to
inundation
• If you want to replace wetlands
as they are lost then we will
need 2,758 ha of new wetland
area costing about $3.8 billion in
land value
Linhoss, A., G. Kiker, R. Watkins, M. Shirley, and K. Frank.
2014. Sea-level rise, inundation, and marsh migration:
Simulating impacts on developed lands and environmental
systems. Journal of Coastal Research (In press).
Linking decision analysis
and Stakeholders
• Role plays have been developed by Dr.
D. Jourdan (Univ of Oklahoma) and
Briana Ozor (Univ of Florida)
• 5 stakeholder roles with
context/budgets for negotiation
• 8 alternatives for
combination/negotiation
• More details at
Planningmatanzas.org
Example Roles
Example Alternatives
Coastal Protection:
The Board Game!
The way forward…
SLR in the GTMNERR
•
•
Areas within 2.5 to 5km of the ocean are generally affected
Changes in landcover area (0.2 to 2.5m SLR)
– Developed Areas: loss of 10 to 400 ha
– Undeveloped Area: loss of 40 to 800 ha
– Because it is largely located within 5km of the ocean, St. Augustine is particularly vulnerable to
the loss of developed and dry land
– Estimated losses are in the tens of millions to billions
•
Ecological Losses: Vulnerable habitats throughout study area
– Regularly Flooded Marshes loose 45% (1,100 ha) under the 2m SLR scenario.
– Tidal Flats loose 25% (650 ha) under the 2m SLR scenario.
– Swamps loose 7% (1,800 ha) under the 2m SLR scenario.
•
•
•
12 stakeholder meetings for role play and extended decision analysis –
combinations?/portfolios?
Four stages of stakeholder response - (1) Stunned silence (2) Panic/Anger (3)
Organizing (4) Purpose and Passion
More info and videos- www.planningmatanzas.org
Agenda
1. Getting local and personal: Sea Level Rise
predictions meet stakeholders in NE Florida
2. Getting even: Water Management in the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint River Basin:
The Never-ending Dixie Water War
Photo: http://www.marketingmedia.co.za
LAKE LANIER
Chattahoochee River
#
Atlanta
#
FEDERAL
STORAGE
RESERVOIRS
ApalachicolaChattahoocheeFlint Basin
Columbus #
Flint River
#
#
#
Gulf of Mexico
Albany
Apalachicola River
The ACF Basin Water Wars: A Not-So-Brief History
1989: Atlanta applies to the Corps for increased water withdrawals and
Alabama sues the Corps. States already had contentious relationship
over federal navigation project for over a decade.
1992-1997: Comprehensive Study of water use in the basin conducted
after negotiated agreement.
1998: ACF Compact approved by Congress and three states requires
development of a Water Allocation Formula by December 1998. First
such Compact in the southeast and first in US since passage of major
environmental laws in the 1970s.
1999 – 2003: Compact negotiation extended 14 times when agreement
could not be reached by three States.
The ACF Basin Water Wars: A Not-So-Brief
History Part II
• 2003: Memorandum of Understanding between States on principles
of Water Allocation Formula and then the termination of ACF
Compact.
• 2004-2005: Multiple lawsuits relating to the ACF water
management proceed through courts in Washington, D.C.,
Birmingham and Atlanta.
• 2006: Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife present
Interim Operating Procedures (IOP) for managing ACF reservoir
system.
The ACF Basin Water Wars: A Not-So-Brief History
Part III
• 2007: Severe drought requires modifying IOP to include
Emergency Drought Operations (EDO) as the
Apalachicola River experiences record low flows and
endangered species are threatened. Court case
consolidated to single court.
•
2008: District Court of Appeals rules in favor of Florida
and Alabama on case relating to water supply
withdrawals from Lake Lanier. Georgia appeals
decision. Corps of Engineers announce preparation of
new Water Control Plan for ACF basin.
The ACF Basin Water Wars: A Not-So-Brief History
Part III
• 2009: Magnuson Ruling. Maintains that city of Atlanta has no
right to water from Lake Lanier (federal reservoir). In 3 years,
all rights return to early 1970s, leaving Atlanta without access
to Lake Lanier. Atlanta appeals.
•
2011: 11th Circuit Court overrules Magnuson ruling, restores
Atlanta’s right to withdraw from Lake Lanier. Gives US Army
Corps one year to decide how to allocate the water. Florida
and Alabama appeal to Supreme Court…
• 2013: Florida appeals to the supreme court citing USACE
delays in water allocation plans will irrevocably harm
Apalachicola Bay fisheries.
• 2014: Supreme Court agrees to hear the case…
To address basin wide water quantity
issues in a multi-state basin in the U.S.,
there are four options:
1) A lawsuit through the U.S. Supreme Court,
2) Federal legislation requiring interstate
management,
3) Creating an Interstate Water Compact, and
4) Pretend you have no problems and pass them
on to unsuspecting future generations.
The major players: a complex group
•
•
•
•
•
•
States of Florida, Georgia and Alabama
Environmental interests
Agricultural interests
Lake Lanier Association
City of Atlanta
Middle Chattahoochee Association (Power companies &
Municipal uses)
• Flint River Agricultural Association
• Fed Agencies: US Army Corps of Engineers/USFWS
• Tri Rivers Navigation Association
Role play and computer aided negotiation
Role play and computer aided negotiation
“User Demands”
ACF Spreadsheet: Control
Page
“Future” and
drought reductions
Lake Lanier and West Point
Levels and Releases
(monthly)
ACF Spreadsheet Results: Lake Lanier Levels
Lake Lanier
Levels over 10 years
Average Climate
Moderate Drought
Severe Drought
ACF Spreadsheet Results: WP & George Levels
Walter F George &
West Point
Levels over 10 years
Average Climate
Moderate Drought
Severe Drought
ACF Spreadsheet Results: Flows into Florida
Flows to FL
Levels over 10 years
Average Climate
Moderate Drought
Severe Drought
Model Output Data for Metric Calculations
and Negotiations
ACF Role Play via Distance Learning
The way forward…
in the ACF
• For the better part of 6 years, Steve Leitman and I (and a few others) have
hosted 4 to 6 group negotiations (per year) of students on the ACF
– With no exogenous requirement for an agreement, less than 10% will come to a
settlement…
– Among student negotiators, there is a fundamental and almost universal ignorance and
aversion to naming meaningful environmental performance metrics
– This same challenge also seems to exist in the actual negotiations
– Lawsuits are still the best way to slow/delay or end-run negotiations
• In good rainfall years, everyone relaxes … In bad rainfall years everyone
panics…
• Real life trials of this stakeholder allocation would be significantly more
complicated (ask the ACF Stakeholders - http://acfstakeholders.org/ )
So What Can We Learn from Stakeholder
Allocation Games?
• Complex issues do not have the simple answers that
stakeholders want…
• Games that have simple rules are fun … games of complex
systems are hard and frustrating (how can I win?)
• Once all the quick fixes have been exhausted, then the hard
work begins
• Expanded consciousness of complex issues does tend to
create more understanding/empathy amongst stakeholders
• Challenge: the proactive/engaged people show up for
meetings, everyone else does not…
The Way Forward:
To integrate many types of information to help inform decisions
Monitoring interval
Exceedance
Monitoring
Indicator
value
Agreed safety margin
based on uncertainty
and risk aversion
Required action
trigger
Model-based
projection
Lower confidence
interval
Best technical estimate
Now
of the level of indicator
where irreversible change
occurs
Mgmt
Ecosystem
reaction Inertia
time
Time
[Source: Scholes & Botha,2011]
Thank you for your attention