Opportunities for the Future
Forest Products Industry
Ron Brown
President and Executive Director
Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance
North Carolina State University Pulp and Paper Foundation Annual Meeting
September 12, 2013
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Where Will the Paper Industry Be in 10-20 Years?
 United States: AF&PA
Better Practices, Better Planet
sustainability goals for 2020
 Canada: FPAC
Vision 2020 – One-third growth by
2020 from product innovations,
significant sustainability
improvement
Next-Level Process
Efficiency
Next-Level
Sustainability
Growth in Current
and New Markets
 Europe: CEPI
Roadmap for low-carbon economy
(To impact 2050, must develop new
technologies now!)
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Many Projections of the Industry’s Future
Europe:
Unfold the Future
2050 Low-Carbon
Roadmap
CEPI
Better Practices,
Better Planet 2020
AF&PA
Environmental
Vision
Envir Paper Network
State of the
Pulp Industry
Rod Fisher
Europe:
Horizons –
Vision 2030
EU FTP
End of
Tunnel?
PPI Survey
FPI Tech Roadmap
Agenda 2020
Canada:
Bio-Pathways
FPAC
Future
from Fibre
WBCSD
Living
Forests
WWF Intl
Transformations
Sten Nilsson
Europe: Strategic
Research Agenda
for 2020 EU FTP
Canada:
Vision 2020
FPAC
Growing
the Future
PWC
Manufacturing
the Future
McKinsey
Facts Trends
Vision 2050
WBCSD
Vision 2050:
New Agenda for
Business WBCSD
Global Trends 2030
Natl Intelligence Council
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Consensus: A Vibrant Future Industry
Worldwide demand of traditional paper products grows 1.5%
per year average over next 40 years
• Steady growth in packaging grades
• Printing and writing grades continue declining to 2030
Many opportunities in the emerging biobased economy
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•
•
•
Forest resource is excellent foundation
No competition with food
Biobased materials offer value, not competition for fiber
Integrate with existing manufacturing
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Opportunity: Forest Biomaterials
in the Emerging Bioeconomy
 Get the highest possible value from resources – wood,
forest residuals, recycled fiber
 Develop new markets while growing markets for traditional
wood and paper products
 $200 billion a year global market potential (FPAC)
$100 billion a year for biobased polymers (Lux)
(U.S. forest products are $200 billion)
• Green chemicals and biofuels
• Plastics
• Lightweight composites
• Bendable concrete with cellulosic
nanomaterials (example shown)
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Forest Biomaterials:
$200 Billion Global Market Potential
(FPAC Biopathways, 2011)
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The Bioeconomy Requires Innovation
Unfold the Future:
The Forest Fibre
Industry
2050 Roadmap to a
Low-Carbon BioEconomy
CEPI, 2011
www.unfoldthefuture.eu
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Opportunity: Improved and New Products
 Lighter, stronger paper and paperboard
• Strength from cellulosic nanomaterials
 Higher-value, specialized papers and packaging
•
•
•
•
Novel optical properties
Barrier to vapors, reduced sensitivity to moisture
Niche products for population that is aging and more urban
Smart packaging
 New products
• Flexible electronics (example shown)
• Clear films from renewables
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Opportunity: Wood and Fiber
Wood is available.
Wood removals in 2050 three
times current rate.
(WWF Living Forests, 2012)
• Steadily growing demand for wood
and paper products
• Escalation in wood for bioenergy
Annual Wood Removals
WWF Living Forests Model
(million cubic meters)
2010
2030
2050
3,401
7,168 –
7,553
11,356 –
13,082
Forest plantations are more productive than natural forests
and will become larger portion of global wood supply.
Global demand for long-fiber kraft pulp is opportunity for
southern U.S.
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Opportunity: Sustainable Manufacturing
Many calls for a sustainable industry
Renewable energy – good progress with fuels and CHP
More attention needed on mill water and energy demands
• Concerns about future access to water in some locations
• Little or no recent progress in water or energy use per ton
Envir.
Paper
Network
chart for
2000-08
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Challenges: Sustainable Manufacturing
Improving sustainability metrics is difficult without new
equipment
• North American mills mostly are well-optimized and have
much old equipment
• World’s oldest fleet of bleached kraft pulp mills in N. America
Best available technologies offer 20-25% reduction in
energy use per ton in U.S.
• High capital investment needed to implement BAT
New technologies if developed could give another 20%
reduction
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Challenges: Sustainable Manufacturing
Recovered fiber will become larger share of furnish
• Higher waste recovery rates, lower fiber quality
• Impacts on strength and mill operations
Mills will become host platforms for bioproducts
• Mill infrastructure is good foundation for producing
biomaterials as add-on processes
• Integrate process systems to reduce energy, water, wastes,
capital
• Opportunity to improve mill sustainability metrics
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Opportunity: Marketing Industry Advantages
Forest products offer many advantages to society
• Renewable raw material from sustainable forests
• Recyclable products, high rate of recovery and reuse
• Renewable energy
The paper industry intends to launch a new marketing
program in 2014 – do a better job of telling our story
• Paper Check-Off (www.papercheckoff.com)
• USDA-sanctioned fund from producers
• Organizational activities led by AF&PA
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Opportunity: Breakthrough Technologies
Urgent need for breakthrough technologies to address
the opportunities
• New and improved products
• More efficient manufacturing
• Get “a better story to tell”
Start development now to be ready for first installations
by 2030 to have large impact in 2050
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Challenge: Outlook for Innovation Is Bleak
Industry spends less on R&D than competitive industries:
• R&D % of sales: 0.24% paper, 0.7% textiles, 1.3% plastics
• Patent intensity: 1.2 paper, 4.1 textiles, 10.7 plastics
• Lacks capacity for much mid and long-term research
Federal R&D spending is available but mostly bypasses our
industry.
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Agenda 2020 – A Unique Voice for the Industry
• Identifies full set of industry technology
needs (2010 Forest Products Industry Technology Roadmap)
• Drives consensus on R&D priorities
• Promotes R&D programs funded in part by
government
• Informs government agencies and
universities about industry research needs
• Member-funded 501(c)(3) organization
• Not a lobbying group
• Supports and works closely with AF&PA
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Agenda 2020 R&D Priorities
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Conclusion: Pursue the Opportunities
Attractive opportunities exist and need new technologies
• Forest biomaterials
• Sustainable manufacturing
• Improved and new products
Best technologies available today are expensive and not
sufficient to achieve market potential and sustainability
Research on breakthroughs is needed now
• More money for industry R&D
• New technologies must be in place by 2030 to have large
impact by 2050
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Thank You
For More Information
Ron Brown
President & Executive Director
Agenda 2020 Technology Alliance
ron_brown@agenda2020.org
202-463-2742
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