Municipal Solid Waste:
global trends and the World Bank portfolio
Dan Hoornweg
Associate Professor and Jeffrey Boyce Research Chair
in Faculty of Energy Systems,
University of Ontario Institute of Technology
February 2013
1
What a Waste - Purpose
Introduces first global assessment of MSW: quantity,
composition, and forecast.
Methods
• Data collection
– From academic, governmental, NGO sources
– Problems: data availability, consistent definitions
• Projections of MSW generation in 2025 based on
GDP growth and urban population projections
Waste Generation by Region (Current)
1.3 billion tonnes/yr MSW
OECD generates ~ 50% world’s waste – “outlier”
China produces 70% of EAP region waste
Waste Generation by Region (now & 2025)
2.2 billion tonnes/yr MSW (69% increase)
Big growth in EAP, SAR, AFR; OECD not outlier
* Bubble size proportional to total urban
population
Waste Generation and Urbanization, to 2100
Hoornweg and Bhada Tata, forthcoming
Solid Waste Composition by Income and Year
Waste composition
Waste composition
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Others
50%
Metal
40%
Glass
30%
Plastic
20%
Paper
Organic
10%
Low income
Lower
Middle
income
Upper
Middle
income
2025
Current
2025
Current
2025
Current
2025
0%
Current
Affected by:
• Geography: building materials,
ash content (HH heating),
green waste.
• Climate: Ulan Bator, Mongolia
ash is 60% of the MSW in
winter, 20% in summer.
• Income: Wealthier nations
have more complex waste,
lower organic content
• Culture: differences in food
consumed (eg, packaged or
fresh), electronic equipment
used changes nature of waste
High income
Waste collection rates vary by income, region
• Collection rates 45%-99%; ranges within regions large.
• Increasing waste collection is priority in low-income
regions to mitigate public health and environmental risks.
Waste collection rates by region
Range in waste collection rates
by income
Waste disposal
Landfilling most popular waste
technology – 350 Mt/year.
Less dumping, but environmental
& health impacts large.
Higher income nations use a
variety of waste technologies
Much recycling in lower-income
nations goes unmeasured
Waste Management Technologies Used
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Others
Incineration
Recycle
Compost
Landfill
Dump
Low income
Lower
Middle
income
Upper
Middle
income
High income
Waste Management costs are increasing
Biggest
proportional
increase in low
(and low-middle)
income nations
Total now = $205
billion
Total in 2025 =
$376 billion
10
Waste Management costs: assumptions
2010: Cost ($) = Waste generated (t) x waste collected (%) x [cost collection + disposal] ($/t)
11
Waste Management costs: assumptions
Projected (study)
2025: Cost ($) = Waste generated (t) x waste collected (%) x [cost collection + disposal] ($/t)
12
Waste Management costs: assumptions
Projected (study)
2025: Cost ($) = Waste generated (t) x waste collected (%) x [cost collection + disposal] ($/t)
Modest increases assumed uniform by
income group (e.g., low, lower-middle, etc.)
13
Low income nations pay large fraction of
MSW budget for collection
They focus on
collection – pay
little for other
waste technologies
But have lowest
collection rates
Higher income
invest in
downstream
technologies too
14
Waste & the environment: local & global
At local scale,
Open dumping contributes to clogged
drains (flooding), water contamination, and
attracts disease vectors.
Open burning produces air pollutants (eg,
PM, Hg) and degrades water quality (esp
through e-waste)
At global scale,
Open dumping/uncapped landfills
produce ~10% of global methane released.
Open burning produces dioxins, furans,
mercury – globally mixed, persistent
contaminants.
15
Waste & climate change
WM accounts for ~ 5% of total global GHG emissions
Landfilling biggest source – 12% of global methane
comes from LFs
Growing in dev. nations; emissions vary by country
(composition, climate, disposal practices)
Waste technologies offer GHG mitigation opportunity:
Recycling, anaerobic digestion, reuse, reduction,
waste as fuel
Bank SW Portfolio is growing
ERLs, Avian flu
Ganga River
Project ($210M)
17
Bank loans & grants: most have ‘minor’ focus on SW
# projects
(Other)
Loans
All Grants
18
Major Focus projects focus on ends of value chain
19
Bank Waste & Carbon Finance projects are
mostly LFG
Bank has 147
registered CDM
projects
30 are SWM
Majority are LFG
20
Concluding thoughts
1. Need integrated approach to WM – it’s not just about landfilling
(though safe disposal is an integral part of solution.
2. Work now to reduce waste generation and increase waste reuse
and recycling [through EPR, pay-as-you-throw, developing markets
for compost, integrating informal sector]
Thank You