Queen’s Global Markets
A PREMIER UNDERGRADUATE THINK-TANK
ISIS and the Middle East
The Fate of Hegemony in the Middle East
Kyle Butler | Allan Lee | Sarah Fadel | Shahaan Azhar
10.29.2014
Agenda
1. Religion and the War on Terror
2. Current ISIS Operations
3. Key Players: strategic interests in the Middle East
4. Conclusions & Predictions
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Geographic Breakdown of Ideologies
Religious discrepancies in the Middle East insinuate conflict
Source: The Shia Revival
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The War on Terror: U.S.’ Failure
The United States made a number of decisions which resulted in its failure in the “war on terror”
Ignoring Key Players
 The US failed to deal with two key players during the
climax of the war on terror: Saudi Arabia and
Pakistan
 Donors from Saudi Arabia have contributed the
majority of funds to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide
 In addition Bin Laden was a member of the Saudi
Ineffective Iraqi Government
 The US bears a large amount of responsibility for
political turmoil that has occurred in Iraq
 US put a tremendous amount of pressure on
Baghdad to complete its transformation to a
inclusive democratic government
 American officials including Vice President Joe
elite as well his father was an associate of the Saudi
Biden and Brett McGurk supported Maliki over
monarch
other candidates
 Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence assisted in the
 The Obama administration had been pushing out
evacuation of thousands of top commanders of both
Maliki since June which resulted in another
the Taliban and Al Qaeda
rushed appointment of al-Abadi
 The US failed to confront both of these players
because they are important American allies
 America has tried to rush the Iraqi political
process which has resulted in the poor results
 Saudi Arabia is a key market for American arms as
well a key source of oil
Source: Huffington Post
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Iraq’s Leadership
Will Iraq’s new leadership result in change?
Saddam Hussein
Nouri al-Maliki
 Committed vast atrocities by
 Maliki was elected, largely with
using chemical weapons
backing from the US, with the
against Kurds and Shia citizens
goal of restoring peace
during his thirty year tenure
between the Iraqi factions
 Continual marginalization of
 New PM as mounting pressure
caused Maliki to resign
 Abadi has the incredibly
difficult task to rebuild trust
between the Government,
Sunnis, and Kurds
Kurdish and Shia population
occasion to seek revenge
fueled bitter animosity between
against the Sunni brutalities by
various sects
handing over the majority of
fairly extreme Dawa party, his
legislative power to Shias
political stance during his
 Deposition created an
opportunity for Iraqi Shias to
 This has insinuated the current
 Although he belongs to the
tenure was generally more
gain greater control of the
crisis as ISIS gains support
moderate than those of both
country
from enraged Sunnis
his predecessor and his party
 Picture of Hussein
Source: BBC
 Instead, Maliki took the
Haider al-Abadi
 Picture of Hussein
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ISIS Background
Beginnings of the world’s most radical extremist organization
ISIS Origins
 Originally founded as Al Qaeda’s Iraqi offspring, but has separated due to differences in ideology regarding use
of brutality and force
 After gaining much influence in the early 2000s, successful American lead strikes as well as local backlash for
ISIS brutality had all but decimated ISIS forces and support
 As American troops withdrew, ISIS focused on prison breaks to free and recruit terrorists and Hussein’s ranks of
experienced ex-commanders
 Vision of establishing an Islamic State based upon radical interpretation of Islam among Sunni majority districts
among Iraq, Syria, and beyond
Recent Uprising
 Took advantage of civil war in Syria to recruit
members and promote extremist ideology
 Victories against Syrian government provided
funding, weapons, and battle seasoned extremists
that allowed ISIS to confront Iraqi military
Source: Wikipedia
ISLAMIC STATE OF
IRAQ AND THE LEVANT
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ISIS Conquest
The speed and ruthlessness of the Iraq Northern Offensive caught the world off guard
Source: (Map) US Officials, Institute for the Study of War, The Long War Journal
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ISIS Conquest
The speed and ruthlessness of the Iraq Northern Offensive caught the world off guard
Iraq Northern Offensive
 After capturing the major city of
Fallujah in January, the Iraqi
government halfheartedly
fought back with little success
 In June, 800 ISIS militants
captured Mosul overnight
defeating 30,000+ Sunni
soldiers
 ISIS overran Syrian and Iraqi
military bases as well
massacred villages at a time,
destroying the remaining
confidence in Iraqi soldiers
 ISIS took advantage of panic to
attack multiple cities while Iraqi
army was in disarray
Map of ISIS conquests on June 23, with the majority of gains coming after June 5th
Mosul attack
Source: (Map) US Officials, Institute for the Study of War, The Long War Journal
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ISIS Power
Unprecedented military and financial resources for a terrorist organization
Areas of Strength
 Many battle hardened extremists with experience fighting
against Americans and Assad
 Fast moving strikes in parallel with suicide attacks are
unpredictable tactics that are hard to fend against
 Powerful social media campaign that instills fear in
opponents and attracts recruits that include foreign
jihadists
 Professionally designed propaganda focuses on
marginalization and oppression of Sunnis by Shia and
has been used effectively to recruit and gain local support
Key Resources
 Richest terrorist organization with over $1 billion
 Large cache of US military arms, mortars, and
armored vehicles captured from fleeing Iraqi army
 Steady stream of revenue from illicit business
activities
o I.e. Smuggling oil and gas, selling electricity to
Syrian government, collecting tax and ransom
o Many new recruits were attracted to ISIS due to
high wages that few jobs could provide
o Money used to buy black market weapons
o Extensively uses videos, magazines, and news to
promote ideology
Source: (Map) Aaron Y. Zelin, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence
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Current ISIS Situation
Halting ISIS and the counterattack
US Action
Counter Attack 1: Air Strikes
Obama’s ISIS Strategy
Main Defense Against ISIS Short Term
 Repeatedly stressed “no boots on ground” policy and
 Air strikes has worked effectively in repelling large
stated that the conflict can only be resolved by Iraqis
 US and allies have sent over military advisors and
launched coalition airstrikes against ISIS targets
 Freeing ISIS held territory will be a long term
endeavor driven mainly by Iraqi forces
scale ISIS attacks
 Pipelines and refineries targeted to stop main source
of ISIS cash flow
 Targets also include heavy artilleries and vehicles that
have delivered ISIS game changing firepower
Counter Attack 2: Local forces
Long Term Solution (6-12 months)
 Iraqi army is mainly on the defensive but should hold
out well since the majority of Iraqi held territory is
now of Shia majority with loyal soldiers and tribes
 Structural changes within the army will be required to
fix corruption, poor training, and moral before
launching offensive against ISIS
 US currently arming and training fiercely patriotic
Kurdish and moderate Syrian rebels to fight ISIS
Source: Foreign Policy, Wikipedia, Vox.com
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Turkey
Why the NATO nation is unwilling to fight ISIS
Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Despite public disapproval, privately Turkey stands to benefit from ISIS’
existence

Turkey will refuse to cooperate with NATO requests for military support
and access to its military base since ISIS allows Turkey to absolve itself
temporarily from its longstanding troubled relationship with the Turkish
Kurds, including the terrorist organization PKK (Kurdish Worker’s Party)

Turkey may help fight ISIS if a no-fly zone is established against the
Syrian regime, which would eliminate Assad’s strategic air power
advantage over rebels

We believe that Turkey’s desire to stifle Kurdish power outweighs its
desire to see the Assad regime topple and as such, Turkey will continue to
abstain from intervening in the fight against ISIS
Source: Foreign Policy
Turkey has been
criticized for its role as a
bystander
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Syria
Opportunistic extremists intensify the battle for supremacy
A blessing in disguise
 The power vacuum and armed
conflict allowed ISIS to easily capture
vast territory in Syria.
 There has been widespread conflict
between various Sunni based rebel
groups and ISIS, although they share
the same goal.
 The Syrian government will refrain
from directly fighting ISIS. Instead it
will conserve its resources and wait
for international forces to weaken the
group.
 As the international coalition attacks
ISIS, the Syrian government can
consolidate its troops and eliminate
other Sunni groups vying for control
 Ultimately, the Syrian government
will be an unlikely beneficiary of the
current conflict
Source: The Economist, BBC
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Saudi Arabia
The Gulf’s most powerful country remains fearful of reprisal
Current Operations
 We believe that the Kingdom will side with Iran for the first time in its diplomatic history, since ISIS directly
undermines the Islamic beliefs that the Saudi state are built upon
 The KSA has been funding Sunni factions to fight against Bashar Al- Assad’s Shia-led government for the past
three years in Syria without much success
Future Actions
 The kingdom will continue to support various
groups that seek to defeat the ISIS
 However, Saudi will refrain from directly supplying
military, logistical, or intelligence-based resources
and assets out of apprehension regarding
repercussions from ultra-conservative nationals
Long-term effects
 Saudi Arabia will only remain impartial with Iran
until the conflict is over. Following the demise of
ISIS, it will once again resume its plan to debilitate
the Shia power
 Riyadh will also devise a strategy to gain control of
Shia-ruled Syria in order to prevent the Iranian
alliance from forming
 The Saudi government sees this as an opportunity
to consolidate the region and extend their powerful
influence
Source: Financial Times, Huffington Post
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Iran
An unusual alliance convolutes an already complex situation
Iran’s Plan for a Shia Nexus
 Iran’s mission is to create an alliance
between Shia-majority countries so that it
challenge regional powers
 As a result of Iran’s long-term plans, Iran
was the first country to aid Iraq against
the ISIS assault
 Iran will continue to quell the extremist
threat in Iraq using all means necessary.
It will also continue to support the Syrian
government against Sunni rebel groups
 Iran will likely appear stronger after this
conflict. By helping get rid of extremist
Sunni rebel groups in both Iraq and Syria,
it will be in a position to further challenge
Saudi Arabia as the dominant player in
the region and will move closer to
creating a Shia alliance.
Source: Wall Street Journal, The Star
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The United States in the Middle East
America continues its decade-long struggle to establish stability given its deteriorating status as the world’s Moral Leader
Expected Foreign Policy
The U.S. Juggling Act
 We believe that American policy will be directed at
finding a U.S.-friendly government, whether
democratic or not, especially since most
democratically elected or militaristically enforced
governments in the region perpetuate extremist
Islamic regimes
 America will attempt to leverage its diplomatic
relations with key players Iran, Israel and Saudi
Arabia to weaken the Assad Regime, and ultimately
remove the disorder that fuels ISIS’ operations
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Resolution of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis
The United States must work with regional players to resolve the Iranian nuclear program
How to Defeat ISIS
 Survival contingent on Instability
 ISIS can only survive as long as there is
disorder amongst its neighbors, but once
that is resolved, the new status quo will
defeat it
 ISIS itself has no ability to create the new
status quo
 Iranian Nuclear Crisis
 Resolution of Iranian nuclear issue will be
fundamental to order
 Iranians feel threatened by the U.S. and
Saudi Arabia, so they support Assad in
Syria; they must feel secure before
abandoning Assad regime
 Reconstitution of Iraq and Syria
Feasibility
 The U.S. continues to be the global hegemon
 U.S. can use its influence to achieve regional
order
 The U.S. has already made unprecedented moves
towards accepting the Iranian Nuclear Program
 Obama administration has engaged in serious
and positive discussions with Iran
 American Policy can reasonably impose a loose
resolution between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran
 Unlike other issues such as the PalestinianIsraeli conflict, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran
seem willing to cooperate on ISIS
 In general, the costs of enforcing undemocratic
regimes weaken groups like ISIS over time.
History is on Democracy’s side in the long term
 A reconstituted Iraq and Syria will be strong
enough to topple ISIS and be more
successful at dealing with similar groups in
the future
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