NCHRP 20-83
Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the
Transportation Industry
An Update
Crawford Jencks
------------------July 2011 RAC Meeting
Seven — $1.0 Million Projects
1.
Freight and the economy
MIT/Christopher Caplice
2.
Technologies and system performance
RAND Corporation/Steven Popper
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Preservation, maintenance, and renewal
Texas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson
Energy supplies and alternative fuels
RAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson
Climate change
PB Americas/Michael Meyer
Socio-demographics and travel demand
NuStats/Johanna Zmud
Sustainability systems and organizing principles
Booz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann
Project 20-83
Long-Term Strategic Issues
WHY?
 The transportation industry faces challenges today, AND it
will face new and emerging challenges decades from now that
may reshape transportation priorities and needs.
 DOTs must be prepared to anticipate the implications of the
future.
 Targeted research is needed to focus on these long-term
strategic issues—lessen the “surprise factor.”
Overall Concept
20-83 Series
 Avoid being constrained by the present
 Project outward 30-50 years
 Create possible, representative future “what-if ” scenarios
 Determine factors influencing scenarios
 Provide guidance on monitoring those factors and assessing
the results: Is change occurring?
 Offer strategies to state DOTs to adapt, mitigate, or revise
change
—Be proactive rather than reactive—
Program Goal No. 1:
Anticipate the future issues so that we are
better prepared to meet new and emerging
challenges.
Program Goal No. 2:
Explore visions of what the future should look
like, so that we can help shape the future
.
through our decision making.
NCHRP 20-83 (01)
Economic Changes Driving Future Freight
Transportation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Christopher Caplice
Provide decision makers with a critical analysis of the driving forces
behind high-impact economic changes and business sourcing
patterns that may affect the U.S. freight transportation system.
To be completed: December 2011
NCHRP 20-83 (02)
Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing
Transportation System Performance
RAND Corporation/Steven Popper
Develop a process that transportation agencies can use to identify,
assess, shape, and adopt new and emerging technologies to achieve
long-term system performance objectives.
To b e completed: June 2012
Products
 Practical framework for transportation professionals to think
more effectively about technology.
 Tools to assist in technology assessment.
 Guidelines for agency use of the assessment results.
 Case study of bridge inspection technologies.
NCHRP 20-83 (03)
Long –Range Strategic Issues Affecting
Preservation, Maintenance, and Renewal of
Highway Infrastructure
Texas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson
Guidance for transportation stakeholders on emerging materials, tools,
approaches, and technologies that could be used to deal with long-range
(30 to 50 years) highway infrastructure maintenance, preservation, and
renewal needs and ensure satisfactory system condition and performance.
To be completed: June 2013
Phase I Key Results
• Identified 67 scenario drivers for 13 technical areas
• Developed 78 scenarios for 13 technical areas (six per area based on negative, mid-
range, and positive worlds)
• Aggregated 67 into 13 critical drivers
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Climate Change
Economic Growth
Priority on Environmental Quality
Funding
Government Role
Mobility
Population Density
Public Commitment to Sustainability
Resources/Energy
Road Freight
Security
Technology/Innovation
Transportation Choices/Complexity
Phase I Results
• Critical Scenario Driver Impact – Examples
– Economic Growth
• Expected Future: Some positive change with slow growth rate
• Alternative Future: Constant and flat or some negative change and a declining
growth rate
– Public Commitment to Sustainability
• Expected Future: More commitment with slow rate of commitment
• Alternative Future: Less commitment with even slower rate of commitment
• Final Scenarios – Multi-driver based and not Linear (under
development)
NCHRP 20-83 (04)
Effects of Changing Transportation Energy Supplies
and Alternative Sources on Transportation
RAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson
1) Determine how the mandate, role, funding, and operations of
DOTs will likely be affected by future changes in long-term energy
supply and demand
2) Identify strategies and actions that can be used by the DOTs to
plan and prepare for these effects.
To be completed: June 2012
Energy and Vehicle
Technology Mix
Petroleum Remains
Dominant
Travel Costs
E1
Driving Becomes
Less Expensive
Illustrative Details of Composite
Energy Use Scenarios
E2
Biofuels Grow in
Use, Replacing
Some Petroleum
Consumption
E3
Driving Costs
Remain Moderate
E4
Natural Gas
Emerges as a
Significant
Competitor
Electric Vehicles
Become the
Dominant Form of
Passenger Car
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Vehicles Become
the Dominant Form
of Passenger Car
Diverse Mix of Fuels
and Vehicle
Technologies Are
Adopted
E5
Driving Becomes
More Expensive
Percentage of Passenger Vehicle Miles
Powered By:
Energy Use
Scenarios
Petroleu
m
E6
Composite Scenarios
E7
E1 = Petroleum, Low Cost
E2 = Petroleum, High Cost
E3 = Biofuels, Moderate Cost
E4 = Natural Gas, Moderate Cost
E5 = Electric, Low Cost
E6 = Hydrogen, Moderate Cost
E7 = Mixed Fuels, High Cost
Current
Status
Biofuel
High Cost
E3: Biofuels,
Moderate Cost
Hydrog
Gas
ity
en
Negligi
Negligi
ble
ble
Negligi
Negligi
Negligi
ble
ble
ble
None
Travel Costs
(2011 $)
~ 6%
~ 90%
~ 10%
~ 90%
~ 10% Negligible Negligible Negligible 17 to 68 cents
~ 70%
~ 30% Negligible Negligible Negligible
8 to 17 cents
~ 45%
~ 5%
~ 50% Negligible Negligible
8 to 17 cents
~ 20%
~ 5%
Negligible ~ 75% Negligible
4 to 8 cents
~ 20%
~ 5%
Negligible Negligible ~ 75%
8 to 17 cents
~ 20%
~ 5%
Low Cost
E2: Petroleum,
Electric
~ 94%
E1:
Petroleum,
Natural
Per-Mile
8 to 17 cents
4 to 8 cents
E4: Natural
Gas, Moderate
Cost
E5: Electric,
Low Cost
E6: Hydrogen,
Moderate Cost
E7: Mixed
Fuels, High
Cost
~ 25%
~ 25%
~ 25%
17 to 68 cents
Growth in
Passenger Travel
Rapid Growth
Commensurate with
Past Trends
Growth in
Goods Movement
T1
Moderate Growth in
Passenger Travel,
Moderate Increase in
Transit Share
T2
Little Growth in
Passenger Travel,
Significant Increase in
Transit Share
T3
Large Increase in
Goods Movement,
Large Increase in
Trucking Mode Share
Moderate Increase in
Goods Movement,
Moderate Increase in
Trucking Mode Share
Illustrative Details of Composite
Travel Scenarios
Small Increase in
Goods Movement, No
Increase in Trucking
Mode Share
Composite Scenarios
T1 = High Passenger and Truck Growth
T2 = Moderate Passenger and Truck Growth
T3 = Low Passenger and Truck Growth
Scenario
Historical / Current
T1. High Passenger and
Truck Growth
T2. Moderate Passenger and
Truck Growth
T3. Low Passenger and
Truck Growth
Passenger VMT
Transit
Truck VMT
Truck
Annual
Total
Mode
Annual
Total
Mode
Growth
(40 Yrs.)
Share
Growth
(40 Yrs.)
Share
2.6%
--
<2%
3.5%
--
29%
2.6%
172%
2%
2.3%
64%
35%
1.6%
86%
5%
1.9%
47%
32%
0.5%
21%
10%
1.5%
35%
29%
Energy / Climate
Policy Building Blocks
Moderate Energy /
Climate Policies
Illustrative Details of Federal
Policy Composite Scenarios
Transportation Funding
Policy Building Blocks
P1
Declining Federal
Revenue and
Investment Capacity
Climate & Energy Policies
Aggressive Energy /
Climate Policies
P3
Renewed Federal
Commitment to
Transportation
Investments
Transportation Funding Policies
Federal
P2
Policy
Regulatory
Scenarios
Mandates
MBUF or
Pricing
Federal
Federal Fuel
Policies
Funding
Taxes
Subsidies
P1 = Conservative Federal Policies
P2 = Moderate Federal Policies
P3 = Aggressive Federal Policies
Pricing
Tolling
Policies
Moderate
Limited
Losing real
R&D support,
Shift to EfficiencyOriented Funding
Mechanisms
Expanded
CAFE
Standards,
Composite Scenarios
Variable
Current Status
Renewable
Fuel
Standards
P1.
Conservative
Policy
Scenario
P2. Moderate
Policy
Scenario
vehicle and
Moderate
increases to
R&D support,
more limited
vehicle and
standards
fuel subsidies
Modest
Moderate
R&D support,
CAFE and
more limited
vehicle and
standards
fuel subsidies
Policy
modest
Scenario
increase to
RFS
tolls
Limited
program
Not increased
continues to
significantly
None
application of
Limited
Federal
RFS
CAFE,
congestion
congestion
diminish
increases to
Aggressive
diminishing
Federal
RFS
increases to
Limited
of travel
tolls
Increased in
Moderate
Introduced in
program
the near term
expands
(e.g., 50 cents
None
application of
the 2020
congestion
timeframe
moderately
per gallon)
tolls
Extensive use
Aggressive
P3.
application of
value per mile
fuel subsidies
Modest
CAFE and
Significant but
None
Carbon tax or
Greater
Significantly
cap and trade
along with
program
vehicle
expands
feebate
considerably
R&D, vehicle,
and fuel
subsidies
of congestion
Federal
funding for
increased in
Introduced in
tolls, weight-
the near term
the 2020
distance truck
(e.g., 75 cents
timeframe
tolls, fees
per gallon)
based on
programs
emissions
NCHRP 20-83 (05)
Climate Change and the Highway System: Impacts
and Adaptation Approaches
PB Americas/Michael Meyer
1) Synthesize the current state of worldwide knowledge regarding the
probable range of impacts of climate change for the period 20302050
2) Recommend institutional arrangements, tools, approaches, and
strategies that state departments of transportation (DOTs) can use
during system planning, design, construction, operations, and
maintenance to adapt infrastructure and operations to these impacts
and lessen their effects.
To be completed: March 2012
Preliminary U.S. Climate Changes: 2010-2050
Average Annual Temperature: Lower 48, +4°F;
Upper Midwest, +5-6°F; Coastal Regions, +2-3°F;
Alaska, +6-7°F
U.S. Winter Temperatures: Less than average annual change but
magnitude uncertain.
U.S. Summer Temperatures: Greater than average annual change but
magnitude uncertain.
Annual Precipitation: Wetter in the eastern U.S.; drier in the west,
south-central, deep south, and Florida; much wetter in Alaska.
Sea Level Rise (intermediate model): Average, 6.4±3.5 inches;
maximum, 16.8 inches (LA); minimum, -5.6 inches (AK).
Extreme Events: Decrease of 1-3 weeks of days below freezing;
increase in north of days with >0.4 inches of rainfall.
ALL ESTIMATES HAVE HIGH DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY!
NCHRP 20-83 (06)
Effects of Socio-Demographics on Travel Demand
NuStats/Johanna Zmud
Determine how socio-demographic factors are likely to affect travel
demand over the next 30 to 50 years and to identify strategies and
actions that can be used by policymakers in state and local
transportation and planning agencies to plan and prepare for alternative
future scenarios.
To be completed: March 2012
1st interim report identified key drivers …
Individual-Level:
• Population Size and Growth
• Geo-Demographics of Population Size and Growth
• Household Structure and Composition
• Household-Based Economic Activity
• Cultural and Social Diversity
Macro Level:
• External Factors Intertwined with Socio-Demographics
• External Factors that Impact Scenario Analysis
Phase 3 Technical Memo examined 4 broad scenarios:
• Momentum – gradual changes without radical shifts
• Technology Triumphs – technology solves all problems
• Global Chaos – collapse in globalism and sustainability
• Gentle Footprint – widespread shift to low-impact living
Key assumptions and indicators will be identified for each scenario.
Future tasks will model how DOTs can predict, influence, and adapt to
these scenarios.
NCHRP 20-83 (07)
Sustainable Transportation Systems and
Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for
Transportation Agencies
Booz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann
Provide a framework for transportation agencies to use to identify and
understand the future trends and external forces that will increasingly
put pressure on their ability to carry out their responsibilities to (1)
meet society’s evolving demand for transportation services and (2)
meet society’s emerging need to operate on a more sustainable basis.
To be completed: September 2012
Major Drivers…
Technology
Government and Politics
•
•
•
•
•
Change in governance
New Funding Mechanism
Increasing Security Concerns
Increasing Regulations
Changes in funding levels
• Advanced information
technology
• Medical advances
• Genetic engineering and
nanotechnology
Demographic and Social
Factors
• Population growth
• More diverse and older
population
• Diverse family structures
• Changes in urban development
• Changing work and life patterns
Economics
• Emerging Asian economies
• Increased U.S. dependence
on foreign trade
• Increased economic
integration
• Increased transportation
costs
FUTURE
TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING
Environment and Energy
ENVIROMENT
• Increased demand and/or
restrictions for natural
resources
• Climate changes
• Increased use of alternative
fuels
• Biodiversity loss
• Water scarcity
• Geo-physical changes
Overview of the research…
NCHRP 20-83A
December 2010 Workshop
& Supplemental Scan of Scientific and
Technological Advances
 Workshop held Dec. 8-9, 2010
 SCOR
 Principal Investigators
 Panel Chairs
 PIs presented research approaches and summarized early
work efforts
 Discussion of potential NCHRP 20-83 topics
 No new topics selected
 Workshop report available at:
http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp
?ProjectID=2934
NCHRP 20-83B
Communication Plan and Presentation Materials
SCOR anticipates a need for a communication plan to identify the
most effective methods and venues for disseminating this information.
The requested funding of $500,000 will enable the development and
implementation of a communications plan for the entire series of
projects. SCOR requested a detailed scope of work be presented for
review at their Fall 2011 meeting.
Thank you!
Crawford Jencks
Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs
Transportation Research Board
cjencks@nas.edu
202/334-3233
Thoughts about the Future
When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it
happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened.
John M. Richardson, Jr., American University
In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find
themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.
Eric Hoffer, American writer 1902-1983
If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less. General
Eric Shinseki, retired Chief of Staff, U.S. Army