Mobile & Wireless Communication Technologies & Techniques
Overview of Mobile Wireless Communication
National Wireless Communications
Technology Roadmap
Trends in Communications and
Media Technology, Applications
and Use
Evolution of Mobile Wireless
Communication Networks: 1G to 4G
eMobility Strategic Research Agenda
Student Presentations and Research Papers
ICT Market and Technology Trends
http://web.uettaxila.edu.pk/CMS/SP2013/teMCTTms/
Analyzing the ICT Market : Technology
and Trends and the Impact of
Technology on the Market
Carlo M. Rossotto, Tim Kelly
Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
Main Technology Trends Affecting the ICT Sector





Broadband
Wireless Technologies
Convergence
Handsets
Digital Content
How technology is affecting the ICT industry




Revenues and Industry Structure
Business Model
Firm Specialization
Product Differentiation
3
Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
Main Technology Trends Affecting the ICT Sector
Broadband
Wireless Technologies
Convergence
Handsets
Digital Content
4
Main Technology Trends in ICT
Broadband Technologies I : Throughput and Range
120
100
80
Peak Throughput
(Download), (Mbps)
Range (Km)
60
40
20
0
ADSL
ADSL 2+
Source: Pyramid Research.
WiFi
WiMax
VDSL
5
Main Technology Trends in ICT
Broadband Technologies II : Throughput and Range
3000
25
2500
20
2000
Km
Mbps
15
1500
Peak Throughput
(Download), (Mbps)
Range (Km)
10
1000
5
500
0
0
FTTP (BPON-ATM)
FTTP (BPONEthernet)
FTTP (GPONEthernet/GEM)
Source: Pyramid Research.
FTTP (GPONEthernet/ATM)
Note: shared throughput
6
Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
Wireless Technologies: main trends
• Trend 1. Growth of 3G+

3G+ users to increase at a 38% CAGR from 2008 to 2013 and to
account for 46% of all 5.9Bn mobile subscriptions in 2013 (Pyramid Research)
• Trend 2. Fixed wireless for development


31 African countries have deployed CDMA2000 1X Networks (ITU)
833,000 customers of W-CDMA in Africa (GSM Association)
• Trend 3. Wireless broadband for development

EVDO growth in Africa
Country
Nigeria
Rwanda
Morocco
Sudan
Angola
Source: ITU
Operator
Starcomms
Rwandatel
Wana
Canar
Movicel
Download Speed
300-600 kbps
400-700 kbps
128-1000 kbps
Up to 2 Mbps
Up to 1 Mbps
Monthly Subscription (US$)
124
62
24
29
257
7
Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
Convergence
• Convergence across technologies: multiple platforms are consolidating into a single IPbased platform, allowing voice, data and video consumption. The same digital content
can be accessed and delivered across multiple platforms.
• Convergence across services: bundles of services, double-play and triple-play (Orange,
for example, reported that 11% of its ADSL subscribers were also triple-play subscribers in
2007, up from 2.7% in 2005, Pyramid Research).
• Convergence across devices: Multiservice connectivity on a single end-user device. Dualmode (WLAN-mobile) handsets and 3G-embedded computing device usage has expanded
over the past two years.
Operators still look at the bottom line when
they consider diversify across technologies and services
8
Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
Broadband-enabled devices

Dual-mode (WLAN-mobile) Devices

PCs with embedded 3G capabilities
 (50% of laptops by 2010; Pyramid Research)

iPhone and Blackberry

Smartphone unit sales globally to grow at a CAGR of 17%, or
nearly three times as fast as the total handset market, to reach 313m
in 2013. Smartphones from 8% of total handsets in 2008 to 18% of total
handsets in 2013 (Pyramid Research)
9
Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
Digital content
Computer and video games1
Global revenues (offline + online) USD 37.5 billion
Film and video2
USD 84 billion
Music3
USD 30 billion
Advertising4
USD 445 billion
Growth of market (offline + online) 19% (2006-07)
4% (2006-07)
-6% (2006-07)
5% (2006-07)
Global online revenues
USD 6.5 billion
Increasingly all new games are
Internet-enabled
Marginal
USD 4.7 billion
USD 31 billion
Growth of online market
Share of online in total
28% (2006-07)
17% but increasingly all new games
are Internet-enabled
>100% (2006-07)
Marginal
27% (2006-2007)
16%
28% (2006-07)
7.50%
High
n.a.
(under 1% in most markets)
Unauthorised downloading of
online content and its impact
Low for Internet-enabled games but
growing quickly
Medium and growing
(i.e. ”server piracy”)
Source: OECD 2007
10
Technology Trends and the ICT
Market
Digital content and Internet traffic
Global consumer Internet traffic 2005-11 in million terabytes/month
3.5
3
P2P
2.5
I n te rn e t vi d e o (PC, TV,
co m m u n i ca ti o n )
We b , Em a i l , F TP
On l i n e ga m e s
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2005
Source: OECD 2007
2007
2009
2011
11
Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
Digital Content and User Created Content







Blogs
Wikis
Photo-sharing
Podcasting
Social Network Sites
Virtual Worlds
File-Sharing P2P
12
How technology is affecting the ICT industry
 Revenues and Industry Structure
 Business Model
 Firm Specialization
 Product Differentiation
13
How Technology is affecting
the Industry
Revenues and Industry Structure: A fast-changing picture
• PSTN revenues sharply down. reduction in global PSTN revenue down $103bn in 2013 than
in 2008 (Pyramid)
• Mobile subscriber growth rates decelerating in most regions, with penetration rates
hovering around the 80-120% range (CAGR of 8% for mobile subscriptions in 2008-2013)
(Pyramid)
• Fixed and mobile broadband lines to increase threefold between 2008 and 2013, from
964m to 3.3bn (Pyramid)
• Internet access will generate nearly 55% of total fixed revenue in 2013.
• Mobile data to grow at a 16% CAGR from 2008 to 2013, making up 34% of global mobile
revenue in 2013.
• Revenue per fixed broadband line, currently at an average of $33, are to decline (CAGR
of -5%). FTTx has highest ARPS — 2X cable or DSL in 2008
Source: Pyramid Research
14
How Technology is affecting
the Industry
Revenues and Industry Structure: A fast-changing picture
• Egypt is the seventh fastest growing broadband market in the world, with over 30%
compounded growth rate
• Ten fastest growing broadband markets are in Asia, MNA, Latin America and Africa
• Operators boasting the highest data ARPS are those with the highest percentage of
subscribers using 3G-enabled devices.
• Messaging revenues (email, SMS and MMS) were 58% of mobile data revenues in 2008
(projected 44% in 2013)
• Web access was 21% of mobile data revenues in 2008 (projected 28% in 2013)
• The rest is applications : music (high growth rate), games, graphic, ringtones…
Data Revenues as a % of total mobile revenues
• Source: Pyramid Research
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
15
2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
How Technology is affecting the
Industry
Digital content development and on-line
business models
–
–
–
–
–
–
Advertisement (e.g. 99% of Google revenues)
Voluntary donations (e.g. blogs)
Pay-per-view and pay-per-item (e.g. IPTV model)
Licensing content to third parties
Online sales (e.g. portals Amazon, eBay)
Sale of user data, clickstream analysis
16
Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
• Convergence may destroy as much value as it creates by bringing in new
sources of revenue (Pyramid)
• Bundles, access to digital content and advertisement are key to the
evolving business models
• Bundles:
–
fixed offers: bundles are key to customer acquisition and customer
retention
–
mobile offers: increase data usage and ARPS.
17
Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
•How are firms reacting:
–
–
–
–
–
New services
Organisational restructuring
Mergers and Acquisitions
Firm Specialisation
New Entry
18