Colombia

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Colombia:

Private Sector Outlook

National Business Association of Colombia

January 2015

ANDI- National Business Association

Purpose: Represent, provide services and procure for a stable business environment

More than 1200 members which represent 35-40% of Colombia’s

GDP

28 specialized sector chambers

11 regional branches

Our international network of allies extends through the all continents

Colombia:

Proven strong fundamentals

COLOMBIA: MAIN INDICATORS

2000

GDP

GDP(US$ Millions)

Economic Growth rate

GDP per cápita (US$)

Foreign Trade

Exports (US$ Millions)

Industrial (US$ Millions)

Imports (US$ Millions)

International Reserves

Months of imports

Investment

Investment (% GDP)

Foreign Direct Investment (US$ Millions)

FDI (% GDP)

Debt (% GDP)

Foreign Debt (% GDP)

Fiscal Debt (% GDP)

Macroeconomic Environment

Inflation

Deposit interest rate (yearly average)

Labour Market

Unemployment rate (yearly average)

Social Indicators

Affiliates to health services (thousands)

Poverty rate

94,075

2.9

2,385

13,158

7,034

11,539

9,004

9.4

14.5

2,436

2.6

36.3

31.6

8.8

12.1

16.7

22,756

55.0

2013

378,125

4.2

8,025

58,822

21,724

59,397

43,600

8.8

27.9

16,199

4.3

24.4

24.4

1.9

4.1

9.7

43,207

30.6

2014

377,185

4.8

7,920

56,057

19,544

63,674

47,323

8.9

30.1

15,500

4.1

24.6

24.6

3.6

4.3

9.1

29.3

COLOMBIA: GDP GROWTH RATE

Agriculture

Mining

Coal

Oil and gas

Manufacturing

Utilities

Construction

Housing

Infraestructure

Retail trade, restaurants & hotels

Transport, communication & warehousing

Finance, insurance and real estate

Government, social and personal services

Government

-0.1

-0.3

0.1

5.2

6.2

3.6

3.6

4.3

2010

0.2

10.6

1.9

16.8

1.8

3.9

8.2

4.1

12.9

6.7

6.6

6.7

3.1

2.1

2011 2012 2013 Jan-Sep/14

2.1

2.5

5.5

3.6

14.5

14.7

17.8

4.7

3.0

5.6

3.9

4.6

-1.1

2.1

4.9

-4.0

7.8

-1.0

4.9

0.8

11.6

-1.7

0.5

4.1

6.0

5.9

6.0

4.3

4.9

5.0

5.0

4.8

12.0

11.4

12.7

4.3

3.1

5.0

5.3

5.9

13.7

7.7

18.4

5.1

4.4

5.5

5.7

6.9

GDP

4.0

6.6

4.0

4.7

5.0

10

ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCORDING TO EXPENDITURE

TOTAL GDP

Imports

Consumption

Households

Domestic consumption

Non durables

Semi-durable

Services

Durables

Government

Investment

Domestic demand

Exports

9.0

4.0

21.6

5.6

4.9

5.6

1.3

2010

4.0

10.8

5.1

5.0

4.7

3.2

14.0

5.4

21.2

3.6

19.0

8.4

11.8

2011

6.6

21.5

5.5

6.0

5.9

3.4

5.1

4.5

7.6

5.7

4.6

4.6

6.1

2012 2013 Jan-Sep/14

4.0

4.7

5.0

8.9

4.7

4.5

4.4

12.6

5.3

4.4

4.3

3.6

4.2

4.3

4.1

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.9

4.2

3.8

5.8

6.1

4.7

5.4

4.7

4.5

8.1

6.7

13.0

7.8

-0.8

11

Colombia in relation to

Latin America

BRAZIL

MEXICO

COLOMBIA

ARGENTINA (Official rate)

ARGENTINA (Market rate average)

VENEZUELA (Official rate)

VENEZUELA (Market rate average)

CHILE

PERU

ECUADOR

URUGUAY

BOLIVIA

PARAGUAY

Latin America: Economic Indicators 2013

GDP

US$ Millions

2,190,218

1,327,021

378,125

484,596

272,041

367,482

34,783

281,666

210,349

91,412

57,107

29,805

30,558

Population GDP per capita

Millions US$

199.9

10,958

118.2

47.1

41.5

41.5

30.0

30.0

17.6

11,224

8,025

11,679

6,556

12,256

1,160

16,043

30.9

14.9

3.4

11.0

6.8

6,797

6,154

16,836

2,700

4,499

Sources: Central Banks in each country, IMF, Calculations ANDI

Intl Reserves

US$ Millions

362,410

176,152

43,600

30,799

21,729

39,903

66,279

4,051

16,121

14,311

5,832

FDI

US$ Millions

61,924

24,600

15,000

9,029

3,152

9,501

11,979

486

3,160

1,287

-

Investment

% GDP

19.2

24.2

23.7

24.2

24.0

25.7

27.9

28.2

19.7

19.3

16.6

14

Industry: Weak recovery

Actively pursuing a global integrated economy

COLOMBIA: FREE TRADE &

ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENTS

Integration

FTA

Partial Scope Agreements

BIT or double taxation treaties

Integration

FTA

Partial Agreements

Investment and double taxation

Potential FTA

20

COLOMBIA: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS

Country/Zone

Current FTA

Mexico

Triángulo Norte (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras)

CAN (Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia)

CARICOM (Caribbean Community)

MERCOSUR

Chile

EFTA

Canada

United States

Venezuela

Nicaragua

European Union

Population

2013 2013

GDP Exports Imports

Millions US$ Millions US$ Millions US$ Millions

1,409 38,600,427 12,392,877 12,294,802

118

30

57

17

252

18

13

35

317

30

6

505

1,327,021

97,447

331,566

17,394

293,094

281,666

400,106

28,546

87,792

37,435

514,418

92,266

413,064

43,364

90,776

42,686

530,550

93,002

13,487

1,825,062

524,553

544,065

406,520

564,662

16,724,272 2,276,264 2,744,520

367,482 91,826 74,594

11,284 5,307 7,700

17,236,563 7,771,775 7,268,255

Subscribed FTA

Korea

Costa Rica

Israel

Panama

Pacific Alliance

FTA under negotiation

Turkey

Japan

TOTAL

World

Share

Source: DANE, MCIT, IMF, WTO, UNCTAD

233

50

5

8

4

167

127

76

127

3,747,627

1,197,506

48,505

272,737

40,618

2,188,261

1,363,238

683,911

17,220

94,863

27,504

539,740

1,312,014

617,203

19,308

91,410

28,178

555,916

5,007,203 832,736 957,794

821,798

5,007,203

208,077

832,736

267,366

957,794

1,769 47,355,257 14,588,851 14,564,610

7,162 73,454,493 23,189,386 23,189,386

24.7

64.5

62.9

62.8

Total Exports

Traditional

Coffee

Petroleum

Coal

Ferronickel

Industrial

Total Imports

Consumption Goods

Raw Materials

Capital Goods

For Manufacturing

Industrial Machinery

COLOMBIA: FOREIGN TRADE

(Millions US$)

2012 2013

57,420 60,667

40,253 42,238

2,608 1,910

28,421 31,642

8,397 7,805

827 881

23,278 23,652

Jan-Nov/14

51,061

36,467

2,234

27,424

6,225

584

8,555

Growth rate (%)

2012 2013 Jan-Nov/14

43.0

56.9

38.5

69.6

39.6

-14.5

26.2

2012 2013 Jan-Oct/14 2012 2013

54,675 58,632

11,315 12,705

22,609 25,121

20,723 20,780

10,495 11,555

4,380 4,783

49,413

10,816

21,750

16,829

9,891

3,820

34.4

25.7

32.0

42.7

26.0

29.7

7.2

12.3

11.1

0.3

10.1

9.2

5.7

4.9

-26.8

11.3

-7.0

6.6

1.6

Jan-Oct/14

7.6

8.4

9.4

4.9

6.0

-5.4

-4.7

-3.6

31.6

-7.4

5.2

-7.0

-6.3

COLOMBIA: EXPORTS ACCORDING TO COUNTRY

2013

58,822

Countries with lower exports from Colombia

United States

Chile

Venezuela

Argentina

Aruba

Germany

India

France

Ecuador

Peru

United Kingdom

18,459

1,572

2,256

433

1,716

780

2,993

327

1,975

1,274

1,116

35,340

Jan-Nov/14

51,061

12,963

919

1,861

188

1,120

577

2,696

137

1,700

1,096

1,014

26,455

Growth rate

-4.7

-24.8

-37.3

-12.3

-53.7

-15.4

-22.4

-5.2

-50.8

-5.8

-6.9

-2.7

-20.7

Countries with greater exports from Colombia

China

Panama

Spain

Turkey

Mexico

Other Countries

Brasil

Netherlands

5,102

3,329

2,879

624

864

4,163

1,591

2,273

23,481

5,543

3,417

3,094

725

850

2,994

1,487

1,998

24,605

23.4

23.0

20.7

29.4

10.2

2.3

1.7

0.5

21.9

Share

100

10.9

6.7

6.1

1.4

1.7

5.9

2.9

3.9

25.4

1.8

3.6

0.4

2.2

1.1

5.3

0.3

3.3

2.1

2.0

23

ALADI

Ecuador

Peru

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

Panama

Venezuela

United States

European Union

Germany

Spain

France

Italy

Netherland

United Kingdom

Japan

China

India

Korea

Other Countries

Total

COLOMBIA: TRADE BALANCE

January-October (Millions US$)

Exports FOB Imports FOB

2014 2014

10,663

1,542

1,018

162

1,383

868

796

3,049

1,668

10,354

732

921

826

2,010

738

4,145

44

368

11,994 14,584

Trade Balance

2013 2014

39

940

419

-1,092

-722

674

-3,764

2,408

1,561

309

810

97

-664

-627

130

-3,348

3,004

1,300

3,112 -2,590

8,211

529

2,915

103

830

1,919

957

348

5,406

2,374

96

6,173

47,158

6,971

1,981

751

1,518

788

234

489

1,209

9,119

1,090

1,146

3,824

50,754

1,417

-1,072

1,608

-802

-390

1,594

548

-832

-4,330

1,471

-896

2,198

1,507

1,240

-1,452

2,165

-1,415

42

1,685

468

-860

-3,713

1,284

-1,050

2,349

-3,596

24

Improvement in social issues

26

27

Successful security policy

28

29

Favourable macroeconomic environment

Colombia:

Challenges and opportunities

Challenges of the near future

• Competitive economic growth

• Maximize opportunities

• Colombia

´ s growing role in the international context

• Reliable country:

• FDI

• Financial resources

• Foreign trade

• Technology

• Competitiviness Agenda

• Infrastructure

• New markets

• Capital markets

• Science and Technology

• Human Capital

• Formalization

33

Overall economic growth

Opportunities in all economic activities

34

35

37

Challenges of the near future

• Competitive economic growth

• Maximizing present opportunities

• Colombia

´ s growing role in the international context

• Reliable country:

• FDI

• Financial resources

• Foreign trade

• Technology

• Competitiviness Agenda

• Infrastructure

• New markets

• Capital markets

• Science and Technology

• Human Capital

• Formalization

38

39

41

Challenges of the near future

• Competitive economic growth

• Maximizing present opportunities

• Colombia

´ s growing role in the international context

• Reliable country:

• FDI

• Financial resources

• Foreign trade

• Technology

• Competitiviness Agenda

• Infrastructure

• New markets

• Capital markets

• Innovation, Science and Technology

• Education - Human Capital

• Formalization

42

Economic Relations between

Colombia and France

43

The Colombian private sector looks forward to a greater involvement with

France and French partners

http://www.andi.com.co

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