Transforming Energy
Business: A Global
Sustainability Challenge
Energie Nederland Conferentie,
Den Haag, June 16, 2014
Wolf Ketter –
@wolfketter
Work done with: John Collins , Micha Kahlen, Markus Peters,
Konstantina Valogianni, and many others.
Erasmus Centre for Future Energy Business
Global Energy Markets are Facing a New Reality
Energiewende
Transition to
renewables
without losing
reliability &
competitiveness!
Shale gas /
Fracking
Crimea
Conflict
Europe’s dependence
on Russian gas and oil
Some countries phase out
nuclear power production
US gains more independence
from foreign fossil fuels
Financial
Crisis
Fall in private investment,
tight financing conditions
Rising Demand
 Rising Prices
By 2030, world economy set to
double and energy demand to
rise by 1/3
2
Fukushima
Electricity
• $371bn business
(in the US, 2011, Source: OECD)
• one million e-vehicles
on US roads by 2020
(Kassakian et al., The future of the electric grid, 2011)
• $4.5tn annual digital
economy spending
(Gartner Group, 2013)
• $10bn cost for a major
US blackout
(Fox-Penner, Rethinking the Grid, 2005)
3
Energizer…
• Please stand up…
Energizer…
Everybody please keep standing, if you...
• Think renewable energy is essential for a sustainable
future?
• Think that Dutch energy policy has to be changed to
achieve a sustainable future?
• Is your business prepared for a sustainable future?
• Have you or any of your friends/family used some
form of renewable energy in the last year (PV, CHP,
etc.)?
• Changed ALL of your light blubs to low energy?
• Drive an electric vehicle (EV)?
• Know your energy usage for the year?
USA Northeast blackout of 2003
7
Who needs to drive this change?
Who needs to drive this change?
Who needs to drive this change?
Who needs to drive this change?
The Virtuous Circle
Cool Science?
Sustainable Energy Challenges
=
Sustainable Energy Challenges
Sustainable Energy Challenges
??!
Primary Fuels
Generation
Renewables
Generation
Wholesale Markets
Information Feedback
Transmission
Trading
Distribution
Retail Market
Customer
Microgrids
Efficient
Technologies
Prosumer
Storage
DSM
“Charging a flat rate for electricity is like charging a flat price per
pound for all items in a grocery store. What would happen if
everything that came out of the cow — steak, hamburger, suet,
bones, and hide — were priced at the average cost per pound?”
– Alfred Kahn
Competitive
Benchmarking
A Way of Doing Design Science
for Wicked Problems
20
www.powertac.org
Power TAC Scenario
Power TAC 2014
World Championship
5-6 May at AAMAS in Paris
Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals vs. 2014 Finals
New
entries
matter!
Context
matters!
24
Strategies
matter!
Some Anecdotal Evidence for CB’s Efficacy
Competitive Benchmarking
Key Advantages
Annual Circle
• Robust results
• Leverage the abilities of top
research groups
• Annually updated research
challenges (cf. Netflix)
• Tournament vs. research mode
JOIN IN!
Research Streams
Infrastructure
Energy
Information
Systems
Energy
Economics
Energy Policy
Society
Energy Markets
Energy Network
Management
Firm
Revenue and
Demand
Management
Individual
Prosumer
Demand
Response
Energy Finance
and Trading
Inter-firm
Prosumer
Preferences
27
Smart Electricity Markets
Autonomous Retail Electricity Brokerage
Smart Charging
• Research
Questions
How should the EV charging be scheduled to
mitigate peaks?
What are the EV customer’s preferences
regarding EV charging?
How is the Smart Grid benefited from EV charging
coordination?
• Vision of the
solution
Individual
Characteristics and
Preferences
EV Charging
Scheduling
Bottom-up
Charging
Coordination
Energy Demand
Reshaping
30
Peak Demand
Reduction
Results: Peak Demand Reduction
• Peak Demand Reshaping
• Valley filling
• This curve is steady state for one
customer with specific charging
flexibility
• Overall price reduction
• Direct result of peak reduction
• Aggregate effect on all the
customers
31
Agent-Coordinated Virtual Power Plants of
Electric Vehicles I
Electric Vehicle Fleet Owner as Virtual Power Plant Aggregator
• Offer mobility services to customers
• Trade idle EV battery capacity on energy and reserve markets
Trade off customer mobility with balancing revenues
32
Agent-Coordinated Virtual Power Plants of
Electric Vehicles II
Research Type 1: Triple Bottom Line Impact of
Large EV Fleets
• Lower electricity prices for consumers at large (People).
• Decrease in CO2 emissions (Planet).
• Benefits for fleet owners (Profit).
Research Type 2: Carsharing Fleets with
Ancillary Services
• Increased revenues for carsharing operator
• More balancing capacity available on the reserve
market
• Balancing capacity is dynamically scalable with prices
33
Investigating Behavior of EV users
under Variable Pricing
• Lack of studies on the behavior of EV users
• No available data on EV users and their charging behavior
• Variable pricing is not yet offered by providers
Grid to
Vehicle
Vehicle to
Grid (tbd.)
To what extent do users adjust their charging behavior in
response to variable tariffs?
How can we incentivize the users to charge their EVs in a way that is efficient for the grid
considering the individual differences in behavior?
What effect do the incentives have on producer and consumer
surplus?
34
Future Work
• Do Competitive
Benchmarking!
• Platform Extensions:
Negotiation, Locational
Marginal Pricing (LMP), EVehicle Models, …
35
•
Behavioral
•
Smart Charging and VPP
Erasmus Energy Forum 2014
Business Day
19 June, 2014
•
Presentations
@Nhow Rotterdam Hotel
•
Panel Discussions
•
Networking
•
Business Award
•
Exclusive Diner
Themes:
• EU Policy and Markets
• Energy Micro Grids &
New Business Models
• Financing Sustainable Energy
Science Day
20 June, 2014
@Erasmus University
Rotterdam
•
Paper and Poster
Presentations
•
Networking
•
Science Award
A 20TH CENTURY ECOSYSTEM
37
Extraction
Transport
Storage
Refinery
Distribution
Customer
A 21TH CENTURY ECOSYSTEM
38
Extraction
Transport
Storage
Refinery
Distribution
Customer/
Prosumer
“If I had asked people what they
wanted, they would have said faster
horses.”
- Henry Ford
5th Avenue, New York
April, 1900
5th Avenue, New York
March, 1913
Get in Touch!
Wolf Ketter
wketter@rsm.nl
www.rsm.nl/energy
www.powertac.org
@wolfketter
Backup
Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals
3
2012
Game Size (# of Brokers)
5
8
Uncertain
Certain
3
2013
5
8
44
AstonTAC CrocodileAgent cwiBroker
Incumbent
INAOE
LARGEpower
Broker
Mertacor
MinerTA
MLLBroker
SotonPower
TacTex
Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals
3
2012
5
Game Size (# of Brokers)
New
entries
matter!
8
Uncertain
Certain
3
2013
5
8
45
AstonTAC CrocodileAgent cwiBroker
Incumbent
INAOE
LARGEpower
Broker
Mertacor
MinerTA
MLLBroker
SotonPower
TacTex
Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals
3
2012
5
Game Size (# of Brokers)
New
entries
matter!
8
Strategies
matter!
Uncertain
Certain
3
2013
5
8
46
AstonTAC CrocodileAgent cwiBroker
Incumbent
INAOE
LARGEpower
Broker
Mertacor
MinerTA
MLLBroker
SotonPower
TacTex
Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals
3
2012
5
Game Size (# of Brokers)
New
entries
matter!
8
Strategies
matter!
Context
matters!
Certain
3
2013
5
8
47
Uncertain
AstonTAC CrocodileAgent cwiBroker
Incumbent
INAOE
LARGEpower
Broker
Mertacor
MinerTA
MLLBroker
SotonPower
TacTex
SUNNY PORTAL
http://www.sma.de/de/news-infos/pv-leistung-in-deutschland.html