NJ Treasury Economic Outlook
Conference
November 20, 2013
Alexander Heil, PhD
Chief Economist
Planning & Regional Development Department
The Port Authority of New York & New Jersey
The opinions expressed in this presentation reflect the views of the author and not necessarily those of the Port Authority of NY & NJ.
Presentation Content
• Port Authority Economic Region
• County-level Recession Experience
• Regional County & Industry Projections
• Based on Q3 2013 Baseline Forecast
• Q&A
Slide 2
18-County Port Authority Region
Slide 3
Employment Recoveries in NY & NJ Counties
Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit
Slide 4
County Level Recession Experience
Port Authority Area
New York City
Bergen County
Essex County
Hudson County
Middlesex County
Monmouth County
Morris County
Passaic County
Somerset County
Union County
2009
Q1
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
99
99
98
98
99
99
99
99
100
100
101
101
102
102
102
103
103
99
99
98
99
100
100
100
101
102
102
103
103
104
104
105
105
106
99
98
97
97
98
97
97
97
97
98
98
98
98
98
98
99
99
99
98
98
97
97
96
96
96
96
96
97
97
97
97
97
98
98
99
99
98
98
98
97
98
98
98
98
99
99
99
99
100
100
101
99
98
98
97
98
97
97
97
97
98
98
99
100
100
100
101
102
99
99
98
98
98
97
98
97
97
97
97
97
97
97
97
98
99
99
97
97
97
97
96
96
96
96
96
97
98
97
98
98
99
99
99
99
100
100
101
100
100
100
101
101
101
100
100
101
101
102
103
99
98
98
97
97
97
97
98
99
99
100
101
101
101
101
102
103
99
99
99
99
100
99
99
98
98
98
99
99
99
99
100
100
101
Q1/2009
2013
Q3
104
107
100
98
101
102
100
100
103
103
101
2013Q4
104
107
100
98
102
102
100
100
104
104
102
TODAY
Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit
Slide 5
PA Region Employment by Sector
Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit
Slide 6
NJ Counties Employment by Sector
Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit
Slide 7
County-level Employment Projections
2013Q3 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016Q4 2017Q4 2018Q4 2019Q4 2020Q4
Port Authority Area
100
102
104
105
106
107
107
108
New York City
100
102
104
106
107
108
109
109
Bergen County
100
101
103
103
104
104
105
105
Essex County
100
101
102
102
103
103
103
102
Hudson County
100
101
103
104
105
105
106
106
Middlesex County
100
101
103
104
105
105
106
106
Monmouth County
100
102
104
105
106
107
108
108
Morris County
100
102
103
105
106
106
107
107
Passaic County
100
102
104
105
106
107
108
108
Somerset County
100
101
103
104
105
106
106
106
Union County
100
101
103
104
105
105
105
106
Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit
Slide 8
Industrial Sector Forecast
2013Q3 2014Q4 2015Q4 2016Q4 2017Q4 2018Q4 2019Q4 2020Q4
Total
100
101
103
104
105
105
105
106
Construction
100
103
105
107
108
109
110
110
Manufacturing
100
99
99
99
98
97
97
96
Wholesale trade
100
102
104
104
105
105
105
104
Retail trade
100
101
102
103
104
104
104
103
Transportation, warehousing & utilities
100
100
101
101
101
101
101
100
Information
100
102
103
104
104
104
104
104
Finance and insurance
100
101
102
103
103
103
103
102
Real estate and rental and leasing
100
102
104
105
106
107
107
108
Professional, scientific, and technical services
100
102
104
106
107
107
108
108
Management of companies and enterprises
100
104
106
108
110
112
113
115
Administrative and waste services
100
100
102
104
104
104
104
104
Educational services
100
102
104
105
106
107
107
107
Health care and social assistance
100
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
100
104
108
113
117
121
125
129
Accommodation and food services
100
103
106
108
109
110
111
112
Other services, except public administration
100
102
104
106
107
108
109
109
Federal government
100
98
99
100
100
101
102
102
State and local government
100
101
101
102
103
104
105
106
Office using employment
100
101
103
105
105
106
106
106
Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit
Slide 9
Forecast Summary [as of Oct 2013]
US Real GDP [%]
Unempl [%]
10-Year Treasury
2013
1.5
7.5
2.3
2014
2.9
7.2
2.7
2015
3.0
6.5
3.1
2016
3.1
5.9
3.6
3.0
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
7.2
-0.6
2
7
0.9
2.8
7.4
1.5
3.3
7.6
1.6
3.4
PA Real GRP
9 NJ Counties GRP
China Real GDP [%]
Eurozone Real GDP [%]
World Real GDP [%]
Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit
Slide 10
Economic Outlook – November 2013
Any Questions?
Alexander Heil, PhD
Chief Economist
Planning & Regional Development Department
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
233 Park Avenue South, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10003
aheil@panynj.gov
Slide 11