Geopoli'ek van mondiale energietransi'e Lucia van Geuns Westland 20 November 2014 Agenda •  De interna'onale energie context •  Drijvende krachten achter energiemarkten •  Discussie Ontwikkeling van de energie vraag Source: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
Global Percent Mix of Fuels
Other Renewables
100
Nuclear
Hydro
80
Gas
60
Oil
40
20
0
Coal
Biomass
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
The Tale of Two Worlds OECD Energy Demand
Non OECD Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUs
500
500
400
400
Rest of Non OECD
Russia/Caspian
300
Africa
300
Middle East
Rest of OECD
200
Latin America
200
India
Europe OECD
100
100
China
North America
0
1990
2015
2040
0
1990
2015
2040
Source: Exxon, 2012
Niet-­‐OESO drijD de groeiende energievraag Source: BP energy Outlook 2030, 2012 Toenemende vraag naar energie Beinvloed door bevolkingsgroei en economische groei
Billion
9
World Population
6
3
1800
0
1900
2000
Source: United Nations; ExxonMobil
2040
Het mondiale energiesysteem in beweging
(EIA WEO 2014)
S'lte voor de storm? -­‐ onrust in het MO: onzekere oliemarkten -­‐ oplaaiend debat gasveiligheid Europa KlimaaRop Parijs 2015: gemengde signalen -­‐ mondiale CO2 uitstoot sAjgt nog steeds -­‐ subsidies fossiele brandstof (550 MM$) 4x > duurzame energie -­‐ energie besparingsmaatregelen lijken succesvol Verandering in het modiale energie systeem: gedreven door beleid of gebeurtenissen? Energy: a global overview •  Oil is 70% transporta'on fuel; remaining 30%: plas'cs, asphalt etc •  Natural gas = heat & electricity •  Coal, gas, hydro, nuclear and alterna'ves create electricity •  Subs'tu'on op'ons are small Energie oplossingen
Meer efficiency
Technologie Minder
CO2 uitstoot
Meer aanbod
source: Exxon Mobil 2008
The door to 2°C is closing, but will we be “locked-­‐in” ? Gt World energy-­‐related CO2 emissions in the Current Policies and 450 Scenarios and from locked-­‐in infrastructure in 2010 and with delay 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 6°C trajectory 2°C trajectory Delay un)l 2017 Delay un)l 2015 Emissions from exis)ng infrastructure 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Without further acAon, by 2017 all CO2 emissions permiNed in the 450 Scenario will be “locked-­‐in” by exisAng power plants, factories, buildings, etc. Source: IEA WEO 2011 Coal won the energy race in the first decade of the 21st century Mtoe Growth in global energy demand, 2000‑2010
1 600 1 400 Nuclear 1 200 Renewables 1 000 800 Oil 600 400 Natural gas 200 0 Total non-­‐coal Coal Coal accounted for nearly half of the increase in global energy use over the past decade,
with the bulk of the growth coming from the power sector in emerging economies
Source: IEA WEO 2011
The long wavelength transi'on to a low carbon economy •
Today renewable sources* account for no more than 2% of global energy and this will rise to only about 6% by 2030 •
Renewables remain dependent on policy support •
Renewable energy will become very widely used in the future, but not in our life'mes •
Reduce costs: increasing energy efficiency and switch from coal to gas in power genera'on * Excl. hydro BP Sta's'cal Review of World Energy 2013 A mix that is slow to change Growth in total primary energy demand 1987-­‐2011 Gas 2011-­‐2035 Coal Renewables Oil Nuclear 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 Mtoe Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035 Source: IEA, WEO 2013 2010-­‐2014: Reminders of Security of Supply Vulnerability Oil and Gas Import Dependence In any scenario we need more gas from outside the EU… IEA, WEO, 2102 Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries Japan Gas Imports 100% 2010 2035 80% European Union 60% 40% China 20% United States 0% Gas Exports 20% 20% 40% 60% India 80% 100% Oil imports While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, the United States swims against the Ade A power shiD to emerging economies Source: IEA WEO 2012 Change in power genera)on, 2010-­‐2035 Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
China
India
United States
European Union
Japan
-­‐1 000
0
TWh
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
TWh
The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide demand, with renewables accounAng for half of new global capacity Regionale gasprijzen sinds 2008 35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2006
2007
U.S. - Henry Hub
Canada - AECO
Brent crude oil
2008
2009
Japan - LNG
2010
2011
2012
2013
France - PEG
Germany - BEB Hub
Netherlands - TTF
Belgium - Zeebrugge
UK - NBP
Source: EIA, Bloomberg, 2013 Liquids Supply Con'nues to Diversify Supply by Type
Resource*
MBDOE TBO Biofuels Other Liquids 120
2014 100
6
NGLs Oil Sands 80
Tight Oil 5
4
Remaining
Resource
Deepwater 60
3
40
Conven)onal Crude & Condensate 20
0
2000
2
Cumulative
Production
1
2010
2020
2030
2040
0
* Source: IEA
2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Crude Oil Prices Brent crude 20/11/2104: $78,40 per barrel De ruwe olieprijs
van $115 in juni 2014 naar $80 in november 2014
•  Majors zoals Total, Eni en Royal Dutch Shell
hebben een hoge olie prijs nodig om investeringen
in produktiecapaciteit te verantwoorden
(olie zanden, diep water etc)
•  Maar ook de OPEC landen hebben belang bij een
stabiel hoge prijs ($ 100 - $120) voor hun
staatsbegroting
Two chapters to the oil produc'on story Contribu)ons to global oil produc)on growth Conven)onal: 2013-­‐2025 Middle East 2025-­‐2035 Brazil Rest of the world Unconven)onal: Light 'ght oil Oil sands, extra-­‐heavy oil, coal/gas-­‐to-­‐liquids & other -­‐8 -­‐6 -­‐4 -­‐2 0 2 4 6 8 mb/d The United States (light Aght oil) & Brazil (deepwater) step up unAl the mid-­‐2020s, but the Middle East is criAcal to the longer-­‐term oil outlook Source: IEA, WEO, 2013 Netherlands •  EU target: 20% in 2020 •  Netherlands’ share: 14% in 2020, 16% in 2023 (NaAonal Agreement on Sustainable Growth) •  We are now at 4% •  Poten'al geothermal energy: 11 PJ in 2020 Geothermal EEnergy Geothermal nergy Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage 11 PJ 18 PJ 0,5 % 0,8 % Source: MEZ, 2013 Het grillige pad van de mondiale energie transi'e •  Geopoli'ek & onzekere markten maakt energieveiligheid een belangrijk poli'ek agendapunt •  Onrust in het Midden Oosten vertraagt investeringen & geeD problemen voor toekoms'g olie aanbod •  Kernenergie kan een rol spelen voor energieveiligheid en CO2 reduc'e maar financiële & maatschappelijke zorgen werken vertragend •  Als Parijs 2015 geen duidelijk rich'ng geeD, zal de aarde opwarmen ruim boven de 2 graden doelstelling •  Lange-­‐termijn overheidsbeleid is essen'eel om rich'ng te geven aan een veiliger energiesysteem Thank You lucia.vangeuns@gmail.com