Mega-Trends in Asia
Honolulu, Pacom, March 2012
Charles E. Morrison
East-West Center
Connecting Dots:
Three Mega-Disasters
• December 2004: Indian Ocean Earthquake and
Tsunami: 230,000 dead
• October 2005: Kashmir Earthquake: 80,000
dead
• May 2008: Sichuan Earthquake: 70,000 dead
Tectonic Plates in Southern Asia
Kashmir
EURASIA PLATE
Kathmandu
Chengdu
INDIA PLATE
Aceh
Change
Certainties/Uncertainties
Near Certainties:
Uncertainties:
• The “rise” of Asia
• Demographic changes
• Pressures on resources
and the environment
• New health challenges
• Sustainable
development?
• Social and political
evolution
• International relations
• Asia-Pacific role in
addressing global issues
Rise/Re-rise of Asia: Asia’s Share of World Gross
Product Over 200+ Years
60
50
??
40
30
20
10
0
1820
1870
1913
1950
1970
1990
2010
2050
from “World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2006 A.D.,”
HDerived
by Angus Maddison; Asia includes South Asia
Growth of Tertiary Enrollment
(Enrollment Ratios, 1985-2007)
Source: World Bank
USA
Korea
Japan
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
China
Indonesia
India
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Education: Percent by Gender of Tertiary
Age Population in Tertiary Institutions, 2008
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
India
Indonesia
China
Philippines
Female
Hong Kong
Thailand
Male
Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics (India and Hong Kong, 2007)
Japan
Intra-Regional Trade Integration
70
European Union – 25
60
Integrating Asian Economies
50
NAFTA
40
30
20
10
0
1955
1965
1975
1985
Source: Peter Petri, East-West Center
1995
2005
Demographic Tectonics
China’s Population in Comparative
Perspective
Fertility Decline
Total Fertility Rate: Babies per Female
7
6
5
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
4
3
2
1
0
East Asia
Southeast Asia South & Central
Asia
East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia, 2002, p. 10.
Asia Population
People (millions)
3000
2500
East Asia
2000
S.E. Asia
1500
South and Central
Asia
1000
500
0
1950
1975
2000
2025
2050
Year
East-West Center, Future of Population
“Flight from Marriage:”
(Never Married Rates: Female, Age 35-39)
14
25
12
20
10
15
8
6
10
4
5
2
0
1970
0
1970
1990
Indonesia
Thailand
1990
2000
2000
S. Korea
Japan
Jakarta
Hong Kong
Seoul
Bangkok
Adapted from Gavin C. Jones, The “Flight from Marriage” in South-East and East Asia
Composition of Population
(Japan)
Share of Young Adult Population in East
Asia (Ages 15-24)
25
20
15
10
5
0
1960
1980
1985
1990
2000
2020
2040
Source: Graeme Hugo, University of Adelaide, based on United Nations 2003,
excludes Western Asia
Growth of Elderly
Percent of Population Over Age 75
•
India
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
2000
China
2050
S. Korea
Singapore
Japan
0
5
10
15
20
Source: East-West Center, Future of Population, 2002
25
East Asian Urban Agglomerations (Megacities) over 10 million
1950
2008 estimates
Tokyo, 11.3 million
Tokyo, 34.4 million
Jakarta, 21.8 million
Seoul-Inchon, 20.0 million
Manila, 19.6 million
Osaka, 17.3 million
Shanghai, 14.5 million
Beijing, 12.8 million
Guangzhou, 11.8 million
Shenzhen, 11.7 million
Bangkok, 10.8 million
1975
Tokyo, 26.3 million
Osaka, 14.0 million
Seoul-Inchon, 12.0 million
Shanghai, 11.4 million
Wikipedia Sources, figures vary
Comparative GDP, 2008
(PPP estimates)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Tokyo, $1,479 billion
South Korea, $1,342 billion
Canada, $1,303 billion
Australia, $795 billion
Philippines, $320 billion
Hong Kong, $307 billion
Seoul, $291 billion
Vietnam, $240 billion
Source: Cities, Pricewaterhousecoopers. Countries, IMF
Asia Pacific Disaster Map with Mega-cities
Beijing
Tokyo
yo
Shanghai
Osaka
Manila
Kolkata
Jakarta
Source: Pacific Disaster Center
Resource Pressures
Regional Petroleum Deficits
Millions of Barrels per day
30
25
20
Europe
N. America
Asia-Pacific
15
10
5
0
1973
2001
Congressional Research Service
2020 est.
AUTOMOBILES (Millions)
Other Africa
South Africa
Other LA
Brazil
Middle East
India
Other Asia
China
Eastern Europe
Asian TE
Russia
Korea
Japan
Australia and NZ
Other OECD Europe
UK
Italy
Germany
France
USA
Mexico
Canada
3,500
3,000
2,500
India
2,000
Other Asia
1,500
China
1,000
500
0
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
2000
International Energy Agency Projections
2045
2050
China’s, India’s, Share of World. . .
• Population: 20.1, 18.0 percent
• Coal Reserves: 12.6, 10.2 percent
• Oil Reserves: 1.3, 0.5 percent
• Natural Gas Reserves: 1.3, 0.6 percent
Source: East-West Center, The Future of Energy in Asia-Pacific, 2007
Fresh Water (Per Capita)
Sources: Earthlab, UN Environment Program
Eart
Northern China Has . . .
• 65 percent of China’s arable land
• 47 percent of its population
• 43 percent of GDP
And only . . .
• 19 percent of China’s water resources
Source: Christine E. Boyle
Water Problem: A Chinese Perspective
China Daily cartoon, 14 November 2006
Growth of Per Capita Meat Consumption –
China, 1980-2007
54 kg
60
50
40
30
20 kg
20
10
0
1980
2007
Source: Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, 30 May 2008
Note: For comparison, US per capita consumption about 122 kg
Health Tectonics
• Traditional Health Risks (down)
• New infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS,
avian flu, new strains of tuberculosis (careful
monitoring required)
• Chronic conditions and diseases associated
with aging and life style changes (up)
Infectious Diseases: A Health Fault
Line?
•
•
•
•
•
“Spanish Flu” Pneumonia: 1919
Asian Flu: 1967
“Bird” Flu (Hong Kong): 1997
SARS: 2003
“Avian” Flu: 2004-
Poultry Density
Source: FAO, AGA Livestock Atlas Series
11-Year-Old Children’s Fitness
Japan
Average Soft-Ball
Throw (Meters)
Seconds to Run
50 Meters
9.4
Boys
Girls
9.2
9
35
30
8.8
25
8.6
8.4
20
8.2
1987
2006
15
1987
2006
Source: Japan Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 2007
Obesity in South Korea
35
30
25
20
1997**
2007
15
10
5
0
Children*
Adults
Korea National Health and Nutrition Survey for 2007 as reported in Chosun
Ilbo, November 17, 2009. * Age 2 to 18. ** 1998 for adults.
Prevalence of Diabetes: 2000-2030
80
151% increase
70
148% increase
60
50
104%
Millions
40
people
30
2000
2030
20
10
0
India
China
Other Asia
Source: Wild, S, Roglic G., Green, A., Sicree, R, and King, H. “Global
Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projects for 2030,
Diabetes Care, Vol. 27, Number 5, May 2004. Average global increase 114%.
Suicide Rates 1
Suicide Rates 2: Case of Korea
The Uncertainties
• Sustainable development
- Economic models
- Resource impacts
• Domestic evolution
- Social disparities
- Political dynamics
• International relations
• Global leadership
Gini Co-efficients
0.7
Brazil
0.6
Mexico
0.5
China
Brazil
Mexico
USA
China
Japan
USA
0.4
Japan
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2007
Sources: World Bank, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
One of the big drivers of change… now China and
India are getting serious
Global Carbon Emissions
Map from The Guardian Datablog
CO2 Emitters Per Capita (tons)
25
20
15
10
5
0
US
Canada
Australia
Japan
China
India
Attitude Survey on Environment
Who Hurts the Environment the Most?
China
%
Americans
40
Chinese
9
Japanese
67
Koreans
64
Indonesians
11
Germans
39
Pew Global Attitude Project, 2008
US
%
22
26
17
19
42
34
Governance Issues and Political
Transitions
Political Systems in Evolution
• Recent coups or attempted coups in recent years:
Philippines, Timor Leste, Fiji, Bangladesh
• New democracy: Indonesia
• Maturing democracies: South Korea, Taiwan
• Frequent leadership changes: Japan, Thailand, Nepal
• Socialist countries in transition: China, Vietnam
• Autocratic regimes: North Korea, Burma
Some Geo-Political Issues
• Last International War?
• Ethno-nationalism (internal/international
dimensions) - Pacific/Atlantic difference
• Power Transitions
• “Afpak”
• Future of Cross-Strait Relations
• Future of the Korean Peninsula
• Territorial Disputes
• Regional Architecture, including alliance systems,
multilateral organizations (APEC, AES)
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