Carbon-constrained markets – business risks
and opportunities through sustainable energy.
Prof Ray Wills
Director and Partner
Duda&Wills
Chief Adviser
Sustainable Energy Association of Australia
Adjunct Professor
The University of Western Australia
Adoption of technology
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The natural turnover and retirement of appliances,
buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest
penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years.
However, adoption of new technology is often not just
‘natural’
The transition to sustainable energy, like many new
technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes
favoured by:
 policy measures and regulation;
 consumer sentiment;
 pricing advantage.
Roger’s diffusion curve
Technology adoption rates – US
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Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs?
(Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
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Can historic deployment rates be used to describe future
technologies? Expect some similarities – just faster!
Small-scale deployment for approximately five years
- exponential growth and an inflection point ten or more
years after first application
Is there an opportunity for disruptive technology entry?
Beginnings of disruptive innovation may be in market
innovations,
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Vehicle ownership model (eg Better Place) could rapidly change
the how and what is purchased
Roof top solar – companies may own the panels on your roof
Technology adoption rates
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Marked decrease in developmental lag
Innovation/development of new products
Supply side capabilities
Market competition
Growing consumer expectations
Higher level of communication between
consumers - blogspace
Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs
Regulation
Energy security
Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010
How clean are Europe’s cars?
Wake up and smell the roses
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Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs?
(Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC
PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet
Landline -> mobile -> smartphone
Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store)
Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon)
Retail shopping Boutique-> chain/mega ->
Internet
Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> solar
Global electricity investment growth
500
450
400
350
300
Fossil dethroned*
BNEF Renewable
250
Fossil BAU (estimated)
BNEF IEA (estimated)
200
150
100
50
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Global renewables
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
Global renewables 2013?
Data UNEP
Global electricity …
IEA Energy Statistics
25 000 000
20 000 000
15 000 000
10 000 000
Coal/peat
Oil
World
Statistics on the Web: http://www.iea.org/stats/index.asp
Electricity generation by fuel
Natural gas
Hydro
Biofuels & waste
Geothermal/solar/wind
For more detailed data, please consult our on-line data service at http://data.iea.org.
Nuclear
0
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
5 000 000
© OECD/IEA 2011
GWh
Global electricity growth - Europe
Australian renewables 2011…
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The transformation of Australia’s energy mix has begun – in
2011 new electricity generation construction 25% solar,
31% gas and 33% wind.
Coal-fired power currently 75% of Australia’s total
generation - in 2011 only 14% of new investment was coal.
This is still behind the average world-wide investment in
renewable energy – China’s economy 8 times larger than
Australia, investment in renewables over 20 times larger!
Australian electricity …
Data ABARES
Australian electricity consumption 2012…
Australian electricity consumption 2012…
Data AEMO
Electricity market projections – WA
Solar on Australian homes
Solar on
WA homes
City of Cockburn
Sustainable energy
and energy efficiency
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Energy efficiency in all forms
Distributed, renewable energy
Known costs, resource life 1000++ years
Stored energy in commodities, desal
Energy storage key to:
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improved energy delivery
increased reliability
reduced emissions
Technology energy use
www.epri.com
Global electricity growth
Rapid change
- Personal mobility
Private transport
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Fuel efficiency, other energy sources
Transport
Energy storage key
New technologies may be disruptive
Electric mass transit
Commercial
vehicles
Smith Newton
electric truck
Mega electric diesel hybrids
 London Bus
 Haul Pak + Earthmover
 Mitsubishi Fuso
 Honda prime mover
 Oshkosh Military Vehicle
Flying and floating fuels
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February 25, 2008 –
Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight
October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New
Synthetic Fuel on Plane
February 14, 2011 –
Qantas follows US Military to
algae biofuels
September 13, 2011 –
US Navy announces by 2016
Green Strike Group, powered
by renewable diesel-electric
engines, nuclear power and
aviation biofuels, is able to
operate independent of fossil
fuel supply line threat or disruption
Smart grids, smart houses (and farms)
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Integrated energy planning
Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as
loads & generators
Green cities
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Global
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Australia
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Tianjin Eco-City China
Ulsan Ecocity Korea
Masdar City UAE
City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030
City of Melbourne
Stirling City Centre, Perth
City of Fremantle
Yanchep – 2 x 100 000
Local government critical
www.seaaus.com.au