Forest Carbon Partnership Facility
REDD Strategy
Global Dialogue on Developing a Readiness
Preparation Proposal
August 13-14, 2009
Carbon balance land use change and
forestry sector by region
Positive Values = Emissions
• Emissions climbing
Tr. Asia
• But reductions possible: China, India
• Which future path will be taken?
Tr. Am
USA
Tr. Africa
China
Source: Houghton (2003)
What is the REDD strategy?
 Identify options to reduce emissions, or tackle
potential drivers
What is the
REDD
strategy
…in the best cost-effective way
…in the most sustainable (long term) way possible
… which takes into account additional benefits, and
… which identifies and discusses potential
environmental and social risks associated with the
different options.
 REDD strategy would analyze the trade-offs
between different options and identify the priorities
 Identify investments and operational costs for the
options identified
 REDD Strategy would build on existing strategies
(Forest Strategies, Infra-structure etc.)
What is required in a REDD Strategy?
 Analyze the different strategies available
 Forest Strategy
 Infra-structure Plans
 Economic development plans, etc.
What is
 Analyze existing strategies as to their impacts on DD
required
a
What isinthe
REDD
REDD and identify analytical gaps
Strategy?
strategy
 Identify different strategy options and analyze their
effectiveness, costs, feasibility, co-benefits and
environmental and social impacts – define priorities!
Example: Brazilian Deforestation Plan
 Promoted by the Presidency with the participation of
all relevant Ministries and sub-national entities
 budget/responsibilities
Global REDD Opportunity Cost & Potential
Global REDD
Opportunity
Cost &
Potential
Almost 50% reduction
possible for mean
estimate price of $10
per ton of CO2
Estimate: Global model estimations based on DIMA, GTM and GCOMAP
Source: Kinderman et al, 2008; Union of Concerned Scientists. www.ucsusa.org
How much does it cost to reach Readiness?
Costs include:
• Opportunity costs
• Implementation costs
• Transaction costs
• Political costs
How much
does it cost
Investment and Maintenance costs
to reach
How a country defines Readiness:
Readiness?
will depend on:
 Capacity building, governance improvements and carbon
assessment are expandable terms
Size of the country and the overall challenge
Existing institutions and technical challenges:
 Existing strategies?
 Existing monitoring capacity?
 Inventories and carbon assessments
 Governance challenges
Accuracy of monitoring and reporting desired
Countries Likely to Define Location & Risk (additionality) of
Deforestation, Spatially Resolved
Note: national program
likely to focus on key
subnational
Projects & areas …
Challenge: REDD Will Need to Address Dynamic
Land Use Change, Cost, & Governance Issues
• REDD Opportunities
Vary by Opportunity
Cost (OC) of Land, C
Density, and Threat of
Deforestation
• Can we identify lowOC, medium – high C
and deforestation
threat lands, with low
barriers to
implementation, and
target them for REDD
ER activities?
Deforestation Threat
& C Density Class,
for East Kalimantan
(Gibbs and Brown,
2007)
• What are priority
governance concerns
with these targeted
lands and REDD
strategies, by country?
Gibbs, H. and S. Brown. 2007. Geographical Distribution of
Biomass Carbon in Tropical Southeast Asian Forests: A
Database. ORNL/CDIAC.