1
Hydro-diplomacy for Water
Cooperation between Afghanistan
and Pakistan
By:
Ashfaq Mahmood
3 June 2014
2
Organization of Presentation
•
•
•
•
•
•
Water Resources of Kabul River
Potential Projects by Afghanistan on Kabul River
Pakistan’s Vulnerability
Climate Change
Conflict Potential
Hydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation
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Kabul-Chitral River Basin
LEGEND
RIVER
DURAND LINE
DURAND LINE
CHITRAL
R.
KAMA
NAGHLU
PROJECT
DARUNTA
KALAM
DROSH
T RI
VER
R.
SWA
DIR
CHARDIH
R.
LOG
JALALABAD
BESHAM QILA
SW
DARAGAI
LR
TARBELA DAM
.
NANGARHAR
BARA
WARSAK
DAM
PESHAWAR
L R
NOWSHERA
IND
US
R
IVE
R
PAKISTAN
KOHAT
ABBOTABAD
KABU
RIVER
AFGHANISTAN
R
CHAKDARA
BU
KABUL
AR
.
MAIDAN SHAHR
KA
SAROBI
IVE
SR
U
IND
PA
NJ
KO
R
NA
KO
AT
AL
PAGHMAN
RI
VE
R
GA
R
IN
MAHIPUR
RA
R.
PA
M
HO
AY
ND
.
I R
SH
NJ
AS
TU
TK
LA
EXISTING HYDRO PLANTS
(KABUL RIVER)
J
LU
POSSIBLE STORAGE
SITES
CHITRA
L R.
CITY
R.
POSSIBLE POWER
DEVELOPMENT
ATTOCK
Schematic Diagram of Kabul River
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Water Sources of Kabul river
Sr
No
Sub-basin
Billion
m3
MAF
1
2
3
4
Logar-Upper Kabul
Panjsher
Chitral
Lower Kabul (including 1-3) at
border)
Net generated within Afghanistan
Availability at Attock
•Rabi
•Kharif
0.5
3.3
10.5
19.3
0.4
2.6
8.5
15.6
8.8
23.5
4.9
18.5
7.1
19
4
15
5
6
7
% of
total
flow at
border
2.5
16.7
54.5
100
45.5
6
Storage and Power Potential of Kabul River
Sr No
Sub-basin
B m3
MAF
MW
Water
Demand
1
Panjsher
2.19
1.8
410
1/3 rd of
water
availability
2
Logar-Upper
Kabul
1.31
1.1
0
Twice the
water
availability
3
Lower Kabul
1.3
1.0
761
4
Total
4.8
3.9
1171
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Power Projects on Kabul River
8
Kabul Stream Flow (Av. Monthly)
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Pakistan’s Vulnerability on Kabul River
• Water Contribution to Indus = 23.5 bm3(19) MAF
• Water Received at the Border =19.3 bm3 (15.6
MAF)
• Contribution of Chitral River
= 10.5 bm3 (8.5 MAF)
• Contribution from Kabul and other Tributaries = 8.8 bm3
(7.1 MAF)
• Projected Future Use Potential in Afghanistan =
3.8 bm3 (3.1 MAF)
• Net Future Availability across the border = 15.4
bm3(12.5 MAF)
• Existing Rabi and Kharif uses will suffer.
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Effects of Climate Change
• Glaciers in the Pamir and Hindu Kush mountains shrunk
by 30 % in the last half century
• Rising temperatures/global warming will result in at
least 10% reduction in precipitation in the next 50 Years.
• Increased summer flows in shorter time spans
accentuating floods in next few years. It will be followed
by shortages in the long run.
• Poverty, food and electricity prices, urban migration
affecting millions of people on the cards.
• At present severe drought at least once in 10-15 years.
This frequency will in increase.
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Conflict Potential
• Threat to Existing Uses in Pakistan
i. 13 potential dams in Afghanistan with storage capacity of
4.93 bm3 (4 MAF). Early Kharif and Rabi crops likely to
suffer
ii. Rising water demand in Afghanistan for urban, mining,
irrigation and environmental flow (3.9 billion m3/year)
• Threat of climate change—scarcity. Major brunt to be faced by
Pakistan.
• Possible diversion of Chitral River by Pakistan
• Poor watershed management
• Lack of hydro metrological data gathering and sharing
• Lack of studies on ground water.
• Outside Promptings, vested interests.
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Hydro-Diplomacy with Afghanistan
1. Promote Cooperation and Equitable Sharing of Benefits:
i. Forming Stake Holder’s Fraternity, exchange visits and
interactions
ii. Sharing of Knowledge and Experience
iii. Joint Projects , Joint Ventures, Joint Studies
iv. Extend Supporting Hand, establishing water institutions,
v. Data Collection and Management
vi. Funding for cooperative activities
2. Media Management
3. Institutional Arrangements- - The Driver of Cooperation:
1. Afghan Cell with appropriate funding and staff (re-locate)
2. Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Commission for Water Cooperation
4. Formulation of Treaty/Agreement in an atmosphere of mutual
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cooperation and understanding.
Conclusions
1. Embark upon a Water Cooperation Initiative to
precede negotiations of Treaty.
2. Set up Joint Commission.
3. Provide funds to support cooperative activities.
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THANK YOU
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