FutureProofing TTI Vanguard -- Advanced Technology Conference Tokyo, Japan June 19, 2012 Innovation of Complex Systems (in Two Short Years): OLEV and MH Nam P. Suh KAIST Thank you for the invitation to speak! Gordon Bell Hal Levin Why? 1. Why does it take so long to develop engineered systems? 2. Why do major corporations miss the delivery dates of their newly developed systems? 3. Why does the cost of development often exceed the original estimated cost? Plausible causes? Is it the excessive reliance on experience? or too much reliance on detailed analyses of sub-systems while ignoring the system-level theoretic design issues? Examples of Innovative Engineering Systems: Two Disruptive Technologies Created at KAIST •On-Line Electric Vehicle (OLEV) •Mobile Harbor (MH) Video of OLEV (On-Line Electric Vehicle) Mobile Harbor (video) Selected as the second most promising technology by an Australian organization Universities do not teach “design of complex large systems”. Why? Special Programs @ KAIST Renaissance Ph.D. Program Freshman Design Course What is the most difficult first step in technology innovation? Money? Clever people? Invention? My answer: Discovery or identification of the problem (need) that requires solutions!! What is the most difficult step in creating the innovative system, after the problem (need) is identified? Rational design of the system that satisfies the highest-level FRs and constraints at all times! Rational design = No Functional Coupling throughout the entire system! How do we create an engineering system? 1. Satisfy certain specific societal needs. 2. FRs at the highest level must be satisfied at the same time within a set of constraints. 3. FRs must be decomposed to create lower-level FRs, a top-down approach. 4. We design and create DPs to satisfy all the FRs at all levels, layer-by-layer. 5. When design is completed, FRs at a given level must be independent of other FRs. Why OLEV? •Energy, Environment, Water, Sustainability (EEWS) •CO2 problem -- 50% reduction by 2050 •Elimination of IC engines from automobiles •Lithium Battery -- expensive, heavy, big, safety •OLEV -- Funding history •Opposition -- why? •Remarkable achievement -- two years from concept to realization Mobile Harbor (MH) •Singapore harbor •Larger and larger container ships •$2~3 billion to build a large harbor with deep water (>15 m) •Environmental problems -- 9 km of shore land •Two years from concept to demonstration on open sea (2009 to 2011) Secret behind the fast realization of the technology, i.e., two years Axiomatic Design Theory Clearly Define the Goal 1. Do you want to go to Korea? 2. Do you want to Boston, U.S.A.? Many different ways of achieving the goal • Once you defined the goal (FRs), there are many different ways of achieving the goal. • Choose the most promising method. (robust design) What should we do, when there are more than one goal? • Water faucet problem • Two goals: – Control the flow rate of water – Control the temperature of water. Water Faucet Design When we choose DPs, FRs must remain independent. Or Maintain the independence of FRs. Water Faucet Design I used AD to innovate many things. • Axiomatic design – Independence Axiom – Information Axiom • Many examples other than OLEV and MH: – Mixalloy (TiB2/Cu dispersion strengthened alloy) – – – – Microcellular plastic (MuCell) Charge decay NDE USM foam molding technology Lamination process Axiomatic design: Mapping, hierarchies, and zigzagging Customer Environment Customer Needs Functional Domain Physical Domain What? How ? Functional Requirements Process Domain What? How ? Design Parameters Process Variables OLEV tram starts COMMERCIAL OPERATION at Seoul Grand Park ◈ Proving of original technology by implementing the research achievements in the field. ◈ Verification on safety and reliability of OLEV technology at the public place. ◈ OLEV test bed system needed to commercialize technology. FRs of the On-Line Electric Vehicle (OLEV) • FR1 = Propel the vehicle with electric power • FR2 = Transfer electricity from underground electric cable to the vehicle • FR3 = Steer the vehicle • FR4 = Brake the vehicle • FR5 = Reverse the direction of motion • FR6 = Change the vehicle speed • FR7 = Provide the electric power when there is no external electric power supply • FR8 = Supply electric power to the underground cable Constraints (Cs) • C1 = Safety regulations governing electric systems • C2 = Price of OLEV (should be competitive with cars with IC engines) • C3 = No emission of greenhouse gases • C4 = Long-term durability and reliability of the system • C5 = Vehicle regulations for space clearance between the road and the bottom of the vehicle DPs of OLEV • DP1 = Electric motor • DP2 = Wireless power transfer system • DP3 = Conventional steering system • DP4 = Conventional braking system • DP5 = Electric polarity • DP6 = Motor drive • DP7 = Re-chargeable battery • DP8 = Electric power supply system Design Matrix {FRs} = [DM] {DPs} [DM] must be either Diagonal -- > Uncoupled Design Or Triangular --> Decoupled Design Decomposition of FR2 and DP2 FR2 = Transfer electricity from underground electric cable to the vehicle DP2 = Power transfer system Decomposition of FR2 FR21 = Generate an alternating magnetic field FR22 = Control the power level of the magnetic field FR23 = Shape the magnetic field to control the height of the field, H FR24 = Control the radiation (EMF) FR25 = On/Off the magnetic field FR26 = Maximize the pick-up of the power in the alternating magnetic field created under the ground for use in the vehicle Decomposition of DP2 DP21 = Underground power lines with AC field surrounding the magnetic core (ferrite) DP22 = Electric power level, i.e., current (I) times voltage (V), at a given frequency DP23 = Width of the magnetic poles established by the magnetic core in the ground DP24 = Active or passive shields for EMF DP25 = Switches that turn on/off the underground power DP26 = Pick-up unit mounted on the car that resonates the frequency of the alternating magnetic field Decomposition involves only the diagonal elements, but … Suppose that the highest - level FRs have the following relationship : ìFR1 ü é A11 0 ùìDP1 ü í ý=ê ý úí îFR 2þ ë A 21 A 22ûîDP 2þ Decomposition of FR1 and FR2 as follows : ìFR11ü é X 00 ùìDP11ü ï ï ê ï úï íFR12ý = ê XX 0úíDP12ý ïFR13ï ê00 X úïDP13ï î þ ë ûî þ ìFR 21ü é XX ùìDP 21ü í ý = ê úí ý îFR 22þ ë0 X ûîDP 22þ Decomposition involves only the diagonal element, but the off-diagonal element must be checked for possible coupling. DP11 FR11 FR1 FR12 FR13 FR2 FR21 FR22 X X 0 DP1 DP12 0 X 0 A21 DP2 DP13 DP21 0 0 X DP22 0 X 0 X X Pick-up system Ferrite Power supply system Shaped Magnetic Field in Resonance SMFIR (Shaped Magnetic Field in Resonance) Power Pickup unit FR21: H Ground Surface DP21: L Magnetic Pole B Magnetic Pole A AC Electric Power Coil Shield Examples of Large Complex Systems • On-Line Electric Vehicle (OLEV) 서울대공원 OLEV 시스템 개요 급전구간 : 372.5m 구간 급전∙수전인프라 길이 2 1구간 122.5m [24mx5+2.5m] 2구간 122.5m [24mx5+2.5m] 3구간 122.5m [24mx5+2.5m] 4구간 5m [2.5m+2.5m] 3 4 :인버터 위치 :맨홀의 위치 1 : 케이블 트랙길이 : 배전선 : 공동구내 배선 Batteries: Major Roadblock for Mass Adoption of Electric Vehicles • EV Battery Problem – – – – – Weight Cost Limited driving range Long recharge time Plug-in charging, manual user experience • KAIST Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV) technology solves EV battery problem – 80% smaller battery size with less cost and weight – Stationary or “in-motion” charging with no need to pull out of service for recharge – Automated charging with no manual efforts © 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 36 The OLEV Technology – Key Differentiators Challenges Breakthrough Innovations “In-Motion” Charging Real-time, dynamic charging with variable length segment control to provide safe, peak power and no down-time operation High Power Capacity Over 100kW to power heavy-duty (HD) vehicles High Efficiency Over 83% end-to-end power transfer efficiency High Ground Clearance Over 8” to meet bus operating requirements Safety Electromagnetic field (EMF) well below international standards on human safety © 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 37 The OLEV Technology – EMF, EMI Safety • International Standards for Electromagnetic Field (EMF) Safety Public Exposure Limits mG (milli Gauss) Country/Organization OLEV Equipped Vehicle Meets Specified Requirements 62.5 mG Korea 200 mG ICNIRP 2000 mG IEEE • Electromagnetic Interference (EMI) – No interference with © 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 38 Case Study - Energy Cost Savings* Annual Fuel Cost ($) Unit $/Fuel Unit $/Mile Diesel (40 ft) $ 52,000 gallon $ 4.00 $ 1.30 Diesel Hybrid BRT (60 ft) $ 43,000 gallon $ 4.00 $ 1.08 CNG (40 ft) $ 32,000 MBTU $ 20.96 $ 0.80 OLEV (60 ft) $ 18,000 kWh $ 0.10 $ 0.46 Bus Type *Estimates based on 40,000 annual miles, $4.00 per diesel gallon and $0.10 per kWh. These numbers are illustrative comparison purposes only. © 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 39 Case Study - CO2 Emission Reduction* Unit CO2/Unit (lbs) Unit/Year 132 gallon 22.377 12,983 Diesel Hybrid BRT (60 ft) 110 gallon 22.377 10,819 CNG (40 ft) 93 MBTU 133.47 1,529 OLEV (60 ft) 0 kWh 0 182,212 OLEV (60 ft) - grid* 69 kWh 0.83428 182,212 Annual CO2 Emission (tons) Diesel (40 ft) Bus Type *Estimates based on 40,000 annual miles, $4.00 per diesel gallon and $0.10 per kWh. These numbers are illustrative comparison purposes only. © 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 40 Mobile Harbor (MH) Rate Limiting Process in Ocean Transportation Systems “Why should ships come into harbor?” Why couldn’t a harbor go to the ship? The Concept of a Mobile Harbor Creativity of KAIST - MH (July 31, 2008 file) Mobile Harbor (MH) • “Why should large container ships come into harbor?” • “Why shouldn’t harbor go out to the ship?” • Execute high speed loading and unloading in the wavy open sea • Deploy original, advanced technologies Large Large Containership Containership Large Containership Draft 15m Draft 15m Draft 15m Shallow or or Shallow Congestedport port Congested Shallow or Congested port Examples of Large Complex Systems •Mobile Harbor (MH) : “Why should large container ships come into harbor?” “Why shouldn’t harbor go out to the ship?” Possible Regions for Use of MH • 항만 증설이 어려운 지역 N. AMERICA EUROPE ASIA • 항만 증설이 어려운 지역 AFRICA • 수심이 낮은 연안 • 파나마 운하지역 • 항구 인프라 미비지역 • 물동량 적체 지역 21/24 OCEANIA S. AMERICA Three Laws of Innovation (N. P. Suh, 2010) •The 1st Law: – Innovation continuum •The 2nd Law: – Nucleation of innovation hub •The 3rd Law: – The rate of nucleation versus the rate of diffusion Thank you.