FutureProofing
TTI Vanguard -- Advanced Technology Conference
Tokyo, Japan
June 19, 2012
Innovation of Complex Systems
(in Two Short Years):
OLEV and MH
Nam P. Suh
KAIST
Thank you for the invitation to speak!
Gordon Bell
Hal Levin
Why?
1. Why does it take so long to develop
engineered systems?
2. Why do major corporations miss the
delivery dates of their newly
developed systems?
3. Why does the cost of development
often exceed the original estimated
cost?
Plausible causes?
Is it the excessive reliance on
experience?
or
too much reliance on detailed analyses
of sub-systems while ignoring the
system-level theoretic design issues?
Examples of Innovative Engineering Systems:
Two Disruptive Technologies Created at KAIST
•On-Line Electric Vehicle (OLEV)
•Mobile Harbor (MH)
Video of OLEV
(On-Line Electric Vehicle)
Mobile Harbor (video)
Selected as the second most
promising technology by an
Australian organization
Universities do not teach
“design of complex large systems”.
Why?
Special Programs @ KAIST
Renaissance Ph.D. Program
Freshman Design Course
What is the most difficult first step in
technology innovation?
Money?
Clever people?
Invention?
My answer:
Discovery or identification of the
problem (need) that requires
solutions!!
What is the most difficult step in
creating the innovative system, after
the problem (need) is identified?
Rational design of the system
that satisfies the highest-level FRs
and constraints at all times!
Rational design = No Functional
Coupling throughout the entire
system!
How do we create an engineering system?
1. Satisfy certain specific societal needs.
2. FRs at the highest level must be satisfied at the
same time within a set of constraints.
3. FRs must be decomposed to create lower-level
FRs, a top-down approach.
4. We design and create DPs to satisfy all the FRs
at all levels, layer-by-layer.
5. When design is completed, FRs at a given level
must be independent of other FRs.
Why OLEV?
•Energy, Environment, Water, Sustainability (EEWS)
•CO2 problem -- 50% reduction by 2050
•Elimination of IC engines from automobiles
•Lithium Battery -- expensive, heavy, big, safety
•OLEV -- Funding history
•Opposition -- why?
•Remarkable achievement -- two years from concept
to realization
Mobile Harbor (MH)
•Singapore harbor
•Larger and larger container ships
•$2~3 billion to build a large harbor with deep water
(>15 m)
•Environmental problems -- 9 km of shore land
•Two years from concept to demonstration on open
sea (2009 to 2011)
Secret behind the fast realization of the
technology, i.e., two years
Axiomatic Design Theory
Clearly Define the Goal
1. Do you want to go to Korea?
2. Do you want to Boston, U.S.A.?
Many different ways of achieving the goal
•
Once you defined the goal (FRs), there are
many different ways of achieving the goal.
•
Choose the most promising method.
(robust design)
What should we do,
when there are more than one goal?
• Water faucet problem
• Two goals:
– Control the flow rate of water
– Control the temperature of water.
Water Faucet Design
When we choose DPs, FRs must remain
independent.
Or
Maintain the independence of FRs.
Water Faucet Design
I used AD to innovate many things.
•
Axiomatic design
– Independence Axiom
– Information Axiom
•
Many examples other than OLEV and MH:
– Mixalloy (TiB2/Cu dispersion strengthened alloy)
–
–
–
–
Microcellular plastic (MuCell)
Charge decay NDE
USM foam molding technology
Lamination process
Axiomatic design:
Mapping, hierarchies, and zigzagging
Customer
Environment
Customer
Needs
Functional
Domain
Physical
Domain
What?
How ?
Functional
Requirements
Process
Domain
What?
How ?
Design
Parameters
Process
Variables
OLEV tram starts COMMERCIAL OPERATION at Seoul Grand Park
◈ Proving of original technology by implementing the research achievements in the field.
◈ Verification on safety and reliability of OLEV technology at the public place.
◈ OLEV test bed system needed to commercialize technology.
FRs of the On-Line Electric Vehicle (OLEV)
• FR1 = Propel the vehicle with electric power
• FR2 = Transfer electricity from underground electric
cable to the vehicle
• FR3 = Steer the vehicle
• FR4 = Brake the vehicle
• FR5 = Reverse the direction of motion
• FR6 = Change the vehicle speed
• FR7 = Provide the electric power when there is no
external electric power supply
• FR8 = Supply electric power to the underground cable
Constraints (Cs)
• C1 = Safety regulations governing
electric systems
• C2 = Price of OLEV (should be competitive
with cars with IC engines)
• C3 = No emission of greenhouse gases
• C4 = Long-term durability and reliability
of the system
• C5 = Vehicle regulations for space clearance
between the road and the bottom
of the vehicle
DPs of OLEV
• DP1 = Electric motor
• DP2 = Wireless power transfer system
• DP3 = Conventional steering system
• DP4 = Conventional braking system
• DP5 = Electric polarity
• DP6 = Motor drive
• DP7 = Re-chargeable battery
• DP8 = Electric power supply system
Design Matrix
{FRs} = [DM] {DPs}
[DM] must be either
Diagonal -- > Uncoupled Design
Or
Triangular --> Decoupled Design
Decomposition of FR2 and DP2
FR2 = Transfer electricity from underground
electric cable to the vehicle
DP2 = Power transfer system
Decomposition of FR2
FR21 = Generate an alternating magnetic field
FR22 = Control the power level of the magnetic field
FR23 = Shape the magnetic field to control
the height of the field, H
FR24 = Control the radiation (EMF)
FR25 = On/Off the magnetic field
FR26 = Maximize the pick-up of the power in the alternating
magnetic field created under the ground for use
in the vehicle
Decomposition of DP2
DP21 = Underground power lines with AC field
surrounding the magnetic core (ferrite)
DP22 = Electric power level, i.e., current (I) times voltage
(V), at a given frequency
DP23 = Width of the magnetic poles established
by the magnetic core in the ground
DP24 = Active or passive shields for EMF
DP25 = Switches that turn on/off the underground power
DP26 = Pick-up unit mounted on the car that resonates
the frequency of the alternating magnetic field
Decomposition involves only the diagonal
elements, but …
Suppose that the highest - level FRs have the following relationship :
ìFR1 ü é A11 0 ùìDP1 ü
í
ý=ê
ý
úí
îFR 2þ ë A 21 A 22ûîDP 2þ
Decomposition of FR1 and FR2 as follows :
ìFR11ü é X 00 ùìDP11ü
ï
ï ê
ï
úï
íFR12ý = ê XX 0úíDP12ý
ïFR13ï ê00 X úïDP13ï
î
þ ë
ûî
þ
ìFR 21ü é XX ùìDP 21ü
í
ý = ê úí
ý
îFR 22þ ë0 X ûîDP 22þ
Decomposition involves only the
diagonal element, but the off-diagonal
element must be checked for possible
coupling.
DP11
FR11
FR1 FR12
FR13
FR2 FR21
FR22
X
X
0
DP1
DP12
0
X
0
A21
DP2
DP13
DP21
0
0
X
DP22
0
X
0
X
X
Pick-up system
Ferrite
Power supply system
Shaped Magnetic Field in Resonance
SMFIR (Shaped Magnetic Field in Resonance)
Power
Pickup unit
FR21: H
Ground
Surface
DP21: L
Magnetic
Pole B
Magnetic
Pole A
AC Electric Power Coil
Shield
Examples of Large Complex Systems
• On-Line Electric Vehicle (OLEV)
서울대공원 OLEV 시스템 개요
급전구간 : 372.5m
구간
급전∙수전인프라
길이
2
1구간
122.5m
[24mx5+2.5m]
2구간
122.5m
[24mx5+2.5m]
3구간
122.5m
[24mx5+2.5m]
4구간
5m
[2.5m+2.5m]
3
4
:인버터 위치
:맨홀의 위치
1
: 케이블 트랙길이
: 배전선
: 공동구내 배선
Batteries: Major Roadblock for Mass Adoption of
Electric Vehicles
• EV Battery Problem
–
–
–
–
–
Weight
Cost
Limited driving range
Long recharge time
Plug-in charging, manual user experience
• KAIST Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV) technology solves
EV battery problem
– 80% smaller battery size with less cost and weight
– Stationary or “in-motion” charging with no need to pull out of service for
recharge
– Automated charging with no manual efforts
© 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
36
The OLEV Technology – Key Differentiators
Challenges
Breakthrough Innovations
“In-Motion” Charging
Real-time, dynamic charging with variable
length segment control to provide safe,
peak power and no down-time operation
High Power Capacity
Over 100kW to power heavy-duty (HD) vehicles
High Efficiency
Over 83% end-to-end power transfer efficiency
High Ground Clearance
Over 8” to meet bus operating requirements
Safety
Electromagnetic field (EMF) well below
international standards on human safety
© 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
37
The OLEV Technology – EMF, EMI Safety
• International Standards for Electromagnetic Field (EMF)
Safety
Public Exposure Limits
mG (milli Gauss)
Country/Organization OLEV Equipped Vehicle
Meets Specified
Requirements
62.5 mG
Korea

200 mG
ICNIRP

2000 mG
IEEE

• Electromagnetic
Interference (EMI) – No interference with
© 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
38
Case Study - Energy Cost Savings*
Annual Fuel
Cost ($)
Unit
$/Fuel
Unit
$/Mile
Diesel (40 ft)
$ 52,000
gallon
$ 4.00
$ 1.30
Diesel Hybrid BRT (60
ft)
$ 43,000
gallon
$ 4.00
$ 1.08
CNG (40 ft)
$ 32,000
MBTU
$ 20.96
$ 0.80
OLEV (60 ft)
$ 18,000
kWh
$ 0.10
$ 0.46
Bus Type
*Estimates based on 40,000 annual miles, $4.00 per diesel gallon and $0.10
per
kWh. These numbers are illustrative comparison purposes only.
© 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
39
Case Study - CO2 Emission Reduction*
Unit
CO2/Unit
(lbs)
Unit/Year
132
gallon
22.377
12,983
Diesel Hybrid BRT (60
ft)
110
gallon
22.377
10,819
CNG (40 ft)
93
MBTU
133.47
1,529
OLEV (60 ft)
0
kWh
0
182,212
OLEV (60 ft) - grid*
69
kWh
0.83428
182,212
Annual CO2
Emission (tons)
Diesel (40 ft)
Bus Type
*Estimates based on 40,000 annual miles, $4.00 per diesel gallon and $0.10
per kWh. These numbers are illustrative comparison purposes only.
© 2011 OLEV Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
40
Mobile Harbor (MH)
Rate Limiting Process in
Ocean Transportation Systems
“Why should ships come into harbor?”
Why couldn’t a harbor go to the ship?
The Concept of a Mobile Harbor
Creativity of KAIST - MH
(July 31, 2008 file)
Mobile Harbor (MH)
• “Why should large container ships come into harbor?”
• “Why shouldn’t harbor go out to the ship?”
• Execute high speed loading and unloading in the wavy open sea
• Deploy original, advanced technologies
Large
Large
Containership
Containership
Large
Containership
Draft 15m
Draft
15m
Draft 15m
Shallow or
or
Shallow
Congestedport
port
Congested
Shallow or
Congested port
Examples of Large Complex Systems
•Mobile Harbor (MH) : “Why should large container ships
come into harbor?” “Why shouldn’t harbor go out to the ship?”
Possible Regions for Use of MH
• 항만 증설이 어려운 지역
N. AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA
• 항만 증설이
어려운 지역
AFRICA
• 수심이 낮은 연안
• 파나마 운하지역
• 항구 인프라 미비지역
• 물동량 적체 지역
21/24
OCEANIA
S. AMERICA
Three Laws of Innovation
(N. P. Suh, 2010)
•The 1st Law:
– Innovation continuum
•The 2nd Law:
– Nucleation of innovation hub
•The 3rd Law:
– The rate of nucleation versus the rate of diffusion
Thank you.