GA EPD Permit & SIP
Modeling Update
James W. Boylan
Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch
Manager, Data and Modeling Unit
AWMA Regulatory Update Conference
May 1, 2014 – Atlanta, GA
Data & Modeling Unit
Keith Bentley
Air Protection Branch
Jimmy Johnston, P.E.
Planning & Support Program
Jim Boylan, Ph.D.
Data & Modeling Unit
SIP Modeling Team
Byeong Kim, Ph.D.
Tao Zeng, Ph.D.
Di Tian, Ph.D.
Permit Modeling Team
Yan Huang, Ph.D.
Henian Zhang, Ph.D.
Yunhee Kim, Ph.D.
2
Permit Modeling
Update
Permit Modeling
Steady-State Gaussian plume dispersion models: AERMOD and ISC
C ( x, y, z ) 
Q
 u  y
z
2
 1  y2
z
exp    2 
2

2
z

 y



 
C oile Midd le S c hool Pr ope r ty Line
N a k anis hi P ro per ty Line
Coile M id dle Sc hoo l
1 mile bu ffer s ur rou nding N ak an is hi
T C E C on cen tr atio n s
0.5 - 1. 0
1.1 - 2. 0
2.1 - 3. 0
3.1 - 3. 5
3.6 - 4. 0
4.1 - 4. 5
4.6 - 5. 0
1
0 .5
0
1 M il es
Permit Modeling Guidance
• Georgia EPD PSD Permit Application Guidance
Document (09/18/12)
– http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/html/sspp/psd_
guidance_document.htm
• Guideline for Ambient Impact Assessment of
Toxic Air Pollutant Emissions, 1998
– http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/downloads/oth
erforms/infodocs/toxguide.pdf
• Guideline for Modeling PM10 Ambient Concentration
in Areas Impacted by Quarry Operation Producing
Crushed Stone - August 7, 2012
– http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/downloads/ssp
p/modeling/quarryguideline_august2012.pdf
6
Meteorological Data
• GA EPD has develop 5-years of
AERMET meteorological data for each
ASOS surface and upper air pairing
– Pairing based on distance, climatological zone, and
data completeness criteria
– 2007-2011 data, except KAMG/KJAX is 2006-2010
– Last updated on April 4, 2013
• All data sets are available on-line
– http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/html/sspp/mode
ling/aermetdata.htm
7
Surface Roughness Update
• Previously, EPD provided data sets with
three different surface roughness values
(0.05, 0.5, 1.0) and the applicant ran
AERSURFACE at the project site to find
the most representative value.
• Now, meteorological data is processed
using the surface roughness at the airport
– 12 different sectors
• Applicant will provide a justification for
representativeness in modeling protocol
8
Surface/Upper Station Pairings
KCHA/KFFC
KGVL/KFFC
KRMG/KFFC
KVPC/KFFC
KFFC/KFFC
KATL/KFFC
KAHN/KFFC
KDNL/KFFC
KMCN/KFFC
KCSG/KFFC
KABY/KTLH
KAMG/KJAX
KSAV/KCHS
KSSI/KJAX
KVLD/KTLH
KTLH/KTLH
9
Background Concentrations
• GA EPD has develop background
concentrations for each county based
on the 2010-2012 design values
– PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, Pb
• Will update to 2011-2013 design values
by the end of May
• All data sets are available on-line
– http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/html/sspp/mo
deling.htm
10
Off-Site Emissions Inventory
• GA EPD will create a statewide emission
inventory for the PSD air impact analysis
–
–
–
–
NAAQS & Increment
PM10, PM2.5, NOx, SO2, and CO
Follow 40 CFR 51 Appendix W
Contractor support from AMEC
• GA EPD will maintain future updates to
the emission inventory through the permit
application process.
• All emissions will be available on-line
11
Secondary Impacts
• In 2012, EPA granted the Sierra Club’s
Petition to engage in rule making to
evaluate updates to Appendix W and, as
appropriate, incorporate new analytical
techniques or models for ozone and
secondary PM2.5.
– AERMOD does not have the ability to model
ozone and secondary PM2.5 impacts
• EPA’s Timeline
– 11th Conference on Air Quality Modeling (2014)
12
Options to Consider…
• SCI-CHEM and CALPUFF
– Lagrangian dispersion models with full chemistry
• PM2.5 Off-Set Trading Ratios
– EPA’s default 40:1 for SO2:PM2.5 and 200:1 for
NOx:PM2.5 were withdrawn by EPA
– Need to perform region specific fine grid photochemical
modeling to develop new ratios
• Ozone Emission Sensitivities
– ppb ozone/ton NOx, ppb ozone/ton VOC
• Full blown photochemical modeling?
– Resource intensive (computer and personnel)
13
PM2.5 Offset Ratios - Annual
PM2.5 Offset Ratios - Seasonal
• SO2 and NOx offset ratios vary by season
of the year and distance from the source:
SO2
Ratios
NOx
Ratios
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
80:1
35:1
20:1
40:1
1 – 4 km
40:1
20:1
10:1
25:1
4 – 10 km
25:1
10:1
7:1
18:1
> 10 km
15:1
7:1
5:1
10:1
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
250:1
50:1
50:1
120:1
1 – 4 km
160:1
35:1
35:1
120:1
4 – 10 km
80:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
> 10 km
40:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
Tier 1 Approach
SO2
Ratios
NOx
Ratios
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
80:1
35:1
20:1
40:1
1 – 4 km
40:1
20:1
10:1
25:1
4 – 10 km
25:1
10:1
7:1
18:1
> 10 km
15:1
7:1
5:1
10:1
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
250:1
50:1
50:1
120:1
1 – 4 km
160:1
35:1
35:1
120:1
4 – 10 km
80:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
> 10 km
40:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
Tier 1 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx can be
accounted for by scaling the standard AERMOD output files.
Tier 2 Approach
SO2
Ratios
NOx
Ratios
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
80:1
35:1
20:1
40:1
1 – 4 km
40:1
20:1
10:1
25:1
4 – 10 km
25:1
10:1
7:1
18:1
> 10 km
15:1
7:1
5:1
10:1
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
250:1
50:1
50:1
120:1
1 – 4 km
160:1
35:1
35:1
120:1
4 – 10 km
80:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
> 10 km
40:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
Tier 2 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx can be
accounted for by scaling the standard AERMOD output files.
Tier 3 Approach
SO2
Ratios
NOx
Ratios
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
80:1
35:1
20:1
40:1
1 – 4 km
40:1
20:1
10:1
25:1
4 – 10 km
25:1
10:1
7:1
18:1
> 10 km
15:1
7:1
5:1
10:1
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
250:1
50:1
50:1
120:1
1 – 4 km
160:1
35:1
35:1
120:1
4 – 10 km
80:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
> 10 km
40:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
Tier 3 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx should be
added to the actual direct PM2.5 emissions prior to running AERMOD.
Tier 4 Approach
SO2
Ratios
NOx
Ratios
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
80:1
35:1
20:1
40:1
1 – 4 km
40:1
20:1
10:1
25:1
4 – 10 km
25:1
10:1
7:1
18:1
> 10 km
15:1
7:1
5:1
10:1
Distance
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
< 1 km
250:1
50:1
50:1
120:1
1 – 4 km
160:1
35:1
35:1
120:1
4 – 10 km
80:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
> 10 km
40:1
20:1
20:1
N/A
Tier 4 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx will require
scaling quarterly AERMOD outputs followed by recalculation of annual and
daily PM2.5 impacts.
Example PSD Application
• Direct PM2.5 emissions = 118.30 TYP
• SO2 emissions = 190.93 TPY
• NOx emissions = 340.65 TPY
• PM2.5 Scaling Factor =
(SO2 TPY/SO2 Ratio) + (NOx TPY/NOx Ratio) + PM2.5 TPY
PM2.5 TPY
Distance
Q3 SO2
Ratio
Q3 NOx
Ratio
Scaling
Factor
< 1 km
1 - 4 km
4 - 10 km
> 10 km
20
10
7
5
50
35
20
20
1.138
1.244
1.375
1.467
Annual PM2.5 – No Secondary
Annual PM2.5 – Tier 1
Annual PM2.5 vs. SIL
Daily PM2.5 – No Secondary
Daily PM2.5 – Tier 1
Daily PM2.5 – Tier 2
Daily PM2.5 vs. SIL
Can I Use These Offset Ratios?
• GA EPD will not require applicants to account
for secondary PM2.5 formation until the final
EPA PM2.5 Modeling Guidance is released.
– DO NOT USE THE OFFSET RATIOS IN THIS PRESENTATION
WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM GA EPD.
• Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches involve directly
scaling the standard AERMOD output files.
• Tier 3 approach involves scaling actual direct
PM2.5 emissions prior to running AERMOD.
• Tier 4 approach will require scaling quarterly
AERMOD outputs followed by recalculation of
annual and daily PM2.5 impacts.
SIP Modeling
Update
Attainment SIP Updates
• Georgia is meeting the 1997 ozone NAAQS (85
ppb) and the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS (15 mg/m3)
– Ozone maintenance plan for Atlanta was approved
– PM2.5 maintenance plans for Atlanta, Macon, Floyd
County, and Chattanooga are pending
• Atlanta was designed nonattainment for the 2008
ozone NAAQS (75 ppb)
– 15 counties
– “Marginal” ozone areas do not require modeling
• Georgia did not recommend any areas nonattainment for the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS (12 mg/m3)
– Waiting for EPA official designations
30
SEMAP Project
• SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis,
and Planning (SEMAP) Project
– Managed through SESARM
– Same group of states that were involved
with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP
• AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV
• 2007 and 2018 annual modeling with
CMAQv5.01
– 36 km (CONUS) and 12 km grids
– Ozone, PM2.5, Regional Haze
31
CMAQ is a Grid-Based Model
ui
ui
Ki
t


   u c i     K  c i  R i  S i


ui
Ki
Ri
Si
 ci
Ki
Si
SEMAP 12-km Modeling Domain
33
Air Quality Modeling System
Meteorology (WRF)
Air Quality (CMAQ)
Emissions (SMOKE)
Emissions
Inventory
(NIF)
MOVES
Rates
34
35
36
2007 Ozone Design Values
37
2018 Ozone Design Values
38
Ozone Sensitivities
• Start with 2018 modeling results
• Perform emission sensitivity runs
– Ozone season (5 months) on 12-km grid
– Statewide 30% emission reductions
• NOx and VOCs individually
• Point, area, mobile, NONROAD, MAR
– 14 geographic regions
• Ten individual SEMAP states
• Maryland
• MANE-VU (minus MD), LADCO, CENRAP
– 2 precursors x 14 regions = 28 model runs
39
40
41
Normalized Sensitivities
• Divided the relative sensitivity from MATS for
the home state by the annual average
emissions reduction (ppt/TPD)
– (DDVFNOx x 1000)/TPDNOx
– (DDVFVOC x 1000)/TPDVOC
• Created stacked bar charts of normalized NOx
and VOC sensitivities for each monitor
• Calculated state average normalized NOx and
VOC sensitivities
• Calculated ratio of normalized NOx sensitivity
to normalized VOC sensitivity for each monitor
42
Emission Reductions (30%)
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia
NOx (TPD)
VOC (TPD)
190
378
251
185
156
190
119
223
201
111
146
403
223
133
113
242
112
174
197
53
43
44
45
NOx vs. VOC Ratios
46
Interstate Contributions
• Examined state-by-state contributions at
downwind sites with DVF > 75 ppb in 2018
• Divided state-by-state 30% NOx contributions
from MATS by 0.3 to obtain 100% NOx
contribution from each state
– Assumes NOx sensitivities are linear to 100%
• Removed contributions from non-SEMAP
states and from home states
• Identified SEMAP states that contributed more
than various thresholds:
– 1.0 ppb
– 0.75 ppb
47
NAA State Contributions
STATE
CT
CT
GA
GA
GA
GA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA
MI
MI
MI
MO
MO
MO
MO
NJ
NJ
NY
NY
NY
NY
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
TX
WI
Site
90010017
90013007
130890002
131210055
131510002
132470001
220050004
220330003
220470012
220511001
220770001
220930002
260050003
260991003
261630019
290990012
291890004
291890014
295100086
340070003
340170006
360610135
361030002
361030009
361192004
480391004
482010024
482010026
482010029
482010051
482010055
482010062
482010066
482010070
482010075
482010416
482011015
482011034
482011039
482011050
482450009
482450101
551170006
DV-2007
86.3
87
90.7
90.3
92
91.7
81.7
83
81.3
79.3
82
74
86.7
81.3
81.7
86
82
82.3
83.5
87.5
85
76
85.3
88
86.3
86.7
83.3
80.3
86.7
81
90.3
81
86.7
75.7
76.3
83.5
82
78
87
81.3
78.3
79
83.3
DV-2018 (1x1)
75.1
75.4
74.3
76.2
74.6
73.3
76.3
76.2
72.8
79.9
75
76.6
75.6
75.8
79.9
78.5
75.6
75.9
77.5
76
75.4
75.2
75.8
76.8
73.3
78.7
74.1
79.1
76
75.8
84.6
82.1
82.6
77.5
78.1
85.6
80.8
85.4
83.1
77.8
75.9
72.2
76.5
AL
-0.075
-0.075
-1.214
-0.483
-0.845
-1.222
-0.509
-0.711
-0.679
-1.012
-0.575
-0.485
-0.025
-0.480
-0.533
-0.026
-0.025
-0.025
-0.052
-0.127
-0.025
-0.100
-0.051
-0.026
-0.098
-0.393
-0.272
-0.211
-0.431
-0.430
-0.479
-0.356
-0.661
-0.698
-0.703
-0.571
-0.215
-0.142
-0.332
-0.311
-0.481
-0.144
-0.153
FL
-0.025
-0.025
-0.050
-0.025
-0.050
-0.049
-0.229
-0.203
-0.146
-0.320
-0.225
-0.357
-0.025
-0.025
-0.027
0.000
0.000
0.000
-0.026
-0.025
-0.025
-0.025
-0.025
-0.026
-0.049
-0.026
-0.099
-0.079
-0.253
-0.076
-0.085
-0.027
-0.193
-0.052
-0.052
-0.029
-0.081
-0.057
-0.083
-0.078
-0.152
-0.024
-0.025
GA
-0.125
-0.126
-0.305
-0.305
-0.291
-0.639
-0.325
-0.434
-0.025
-0.152
-0.160
-0.026
-0.025
0.000
-0.052
-0.127
-0.101
-0.075
-0.101
-0.051
-0.147
-0.289
-0.123
-0.132
-0.203
-0.253
-0.282
-0.301
-0.413
-0.594
-0.599
-0.314
-0.135
-0.085
-0.305
-0.182
-0.278
-0.048
-0.306
48
KY
-0.100
-0.126
-0.743
-0.914
-0.547
-0.366
-0.102
-0.203
-0.170
-0.186
-0.275
-0.128
-0.025
-0.682
-0.692
-0.392
-0.428
-0.607
-0.542
-0.127
-0.126
-0.150
-0.076
-0.077
-0.147
-0.236
-0.099
-0.026
-0.127
-0.227
-0.254
-0.274
-0.220
-0.181
-0.182
-0.285
-0.027
-0.028
-0.249
-0.182
-0.202
-0.144
-0.280
MS
-0.050
-0.050
-0.297
-0.127
-0.224
-0.538
-0.661
-1.295
-0.922
-1.625
-1.500
-0.843
-0.025
-0.177
-0.133
0.000
0.000
0.000
-0.052
-0.076
-0.025
-0.075
-0.025
-0.026
-0.073
-0.866
-0.593
-0.290
-0.887
-0.960
-1.072
-0.821
-1.129
-1.343
-1.354
-1.113
-0.296
-0.171
-0.748
-0.596
-0.632
-0.794
-0.025
NC
-0.426
-0.553
-0.347
-0.737
-0.348
-0.220
-0.102
-0.076
-0.049
-0.160
-0.050
-0.077
-0.025
-0.051
-0.053
-0.026
0.000
0.000
-0.026
-0.253
-0.528
-0.351
-0.556
-0.282
-0.513
-0.157
-0.074
-0.053
-0.076
-0.126
-0.141
-0.192
-0.248
-0.413
-0.417
-0.171
-0.054
-0.028
-0.194
-0.104
-0.051
-0.024
-0.025
SC
-0.100
-0.126
-0.248
-0.432
-0.199
-0.122
-0.102
-0.076
-0.049
-0.107
-0.075
-0.102
-0.025
-0.051
-0.053
0.000
0.000
0.000
-0.026
-0.051
-0.126
-0.075
-0.101
-0.051
-0.122
-0.079
-0.074
-0.026
-0.076
-0.076
-0.085
-0.082
-0.110
-0.155
-0.156
-0.057
-0.027
-0.028
-0.111
-0.052
-0.051
-0.024
-0.051
TN
-0.125
-0.126
-1.337
-1.245
-1.243
-1.735
-0.203
-0.381
-0.388
-0.426
-0.400
-0.383
-0.025
-0.404
-0.373
-0.026
0.000
-0.025
-0.077
-0.177
-0.050
-0.125
-0.076
-0.026
-0.147
-0.446
-0.173
-0.079
-0.228
-0.404
-0.451
-0.520
-0.496
-0.749
-0.755
-0.542
-0.081
-0.057
-0.499
-0.337
-0.202
-0.241
-0.306
VA
-1.427
-1.885
-0.198
-0.305
-0.224
-0.122
-0.051
-0.051
-0.024
-0.107
-0.050
-0.051
-0.025
-0.051
-0.053
-0.026
-0.025
-0.025
-0.026
-0.633
-1.332
-1.529
-2.375
-1.562
-1.295
-0.079
-0.049
-0.026
-0.076
-0.076
-0.085
-0.082
-0.138
-0.181
-0.182
-0.086
-0.027
-0.028
-0.111
-0.078
-0.025
-0.024
-0.025
WV
-0.350
-0.377
-0.099
-0.305
-0.149
-0.098
-0.025
-0.025
-0.024
-0.027
-0.050
-0.026
-0.025
-0.101
-0.107
-0.026
-0.050
-0.126
-0.052
-0.456
-0.327
-0.401
-0.354
-0.282
-0.415
-0.026
-0.025
-0.026
-0.025
-0.025
-0.028
-0.027
-0.055
-0.052
-0.052
-0.029
-0.027
-0.028
-0.028
-0.026
-0.025
-0.024
-0.025
SEMAP Next Steps
• Examine SEMAP 2018 projections for
PM2.5 and Regional Haze
• Replicate EPA 2011 and 2018 modeling
– May adjust 2018 EGUs based on ERTAC model
– May replace SMOKE-MOVES emissions with
inventory mode MOVES
– May adjust VOC emissions from fires
– May perform NOx emission sensitivities
• Create 2028 emission inventory and
perform 2028 modeling for Regional Haze
49
SO2 SIP Modeling
Update
EPA SO2 Documents and Rules
• SO2 NAAQS Designations Source-Oriented
Monitoring Technical Assistance Document
– December, 2013
• SO2 NAAQS Designations Modeling Technical
Assistance Document
– December, 2013
• Data Requirements Rule for the 1-Hour Sulfur
Dioxide (SO2) Primary National Ambient Air
Quality Standard (NAAQS)
– April 17, 2014
• Guidance for 1-Hour SO2 Nonattainment Area
SIP Submissions
– April 23, 2014
51
SO2 Designations
• Round 1
– October 4, 2013: EPA designated 29 areas nonattainment
in 16 states based on monitored violations
– SIPs are due April 4, 2015 (18 months after effective date)
• Round 2
– January 15, 2016: States submit list of SO2 sources to
EPA and indicate modeling or monitoring approach
• Also, modeling protocols are due at this time
– January 13, 2017: Modeling analyses due to EPA
– December, 2017: EPA makes designations based on
modeling analysis
• Round 3
– July 1, 2016: States submit monitoring details to EPA as
part of their annual monitoring network plan
– January 1, 2017: New monitors operational
– 2020: EPA makes designations based on 2017-2019
monitoring data
52
SO2 Threshold Options
53
Large SO2 Sources in Georgia
Site Name
Ga Power Company - Plant Bowen
Ga Power Company - Plant Kraft
International Paper - Savannah
Southern States Phosphate & Fertilizer
Ga Power Company - Plant McDonough/Atkinson
Ga Power Company - Plant Yates
Georgia-Pacific Corp Cedar Springs Operation
Ga Power Co Plt McIntosh
Georgia-Pacific Consumer Products (Savannah River Mill)
Ga Power Company - Plant Hammond
TEMPLE INLAND (International Paper - Rome)
Ga Power Company - Plant Wansley
SP Newsprint Company, LLC
Ga Power Company - Plant Scherer
Ga Power Company - Plant Branch
Thermal Ceramics
International Paper - Augusta Mill
County
Bartow
Chatham
Chatham
Chatham
Cobb
Coweta
Early
Effingham
Effingham
Floyd
Floyd
Heard
Laurens
Monroe
Putnam
Richmond
Richmond
2010 (TPY) 2011 (TPY) 2012 (TPY) Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
7,618.00
5,888.85
3,118.87
Yes
Yes
Yes
8,340.92
2,806.00
1,190.13
No
No
No
5,871.79
4,232.78
3,622.41
Yes
No
No
1,211.44
1,194.00
No
No
No
17,115.00 18,307.10
424.39
No
No
No
54,256.80 47,529.56 29,788.83
Yes
Yes
Yes
3,897.76
1,906.84
860.09
No
No
No
2,506.20
691.81
0.13
No
No
No
3,517.09
3,724.79
3,036.25
Yes
No
No
2,417.66
2,174.44
978.26
No
No
No
2,116.72
2,202.81
2,158.63
Yes
No
No
2,346.12
3,084.53
2,101.73
Yes
Yes
No
1,145.72
1,393.83
1,407.30
No
No
No
69,861.00 50,487.98 42,347.74
Yes
Yes
Yes
53,258.10 55,179.80 20,984.20
Yes
Yes
Yes
1,980.13
1,698.02
No
No
No
2,174.98
1,709.82
459.17
No
No
No
* BOLD indicates source is in a CBSA > 1M
** RED HIGHLIGHT indicates source will retire or converting to natural gas by 2016
Based on 2012 SO2 emissions
– Option 1  6 sources
– Option 2  3 sources
– Option 3  2 sources
54
2012 SO2 Emissions
X
X
55
2010-2012 Max. SO2 Emissions
X
X
X
56
Contact Information
Jim Boylan, Ph.D.
Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources
4244 International Parkway, Suite 120
Atlanta, GA 30354
[email protected]
404-362-4851
Download

Jim Boylan - GA EPD Regulatory Modeling Update