The energy challenge adopting clean tech
- how quickly will (can) Australia change?
Prof Ray Wills
Director and Partner
Duda&Wills
Chief Adviser
Sustainable Energy Association of Australia
Adjunct Professor
The University of Western Australia
Adoption of technology
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The natural turnover and retirement of appliances,
buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest
penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years.
However, adoption of new technology is often not just
‘natural’
The transition to sustainable energy, like many new
technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes
favoured by:
 policy measures and regulation;
 consumer sentiment;
 pricing advantage.
Roger’s diffusion curve
Technology adoption rates – US
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Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs?
(Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology energy use
www.epri.com
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
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Marked decrease in developmental lag
Innovation/development of new products
Supply side capabilities
Market competition
Growing consumer expectations
Higher level of communication between
consumers - blogspace
Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs
Regulation
Energy security
Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010
How clean are Europe’s cars?
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
Global renewables 2013?
Data UNEP
Global electricity …
IEA Energy Statistics
25 000 000
20 000 000
15 000 000
10 000 000
Coal/peat
Oil
World
Statistics on the Web: http://www.iea.org/stats/index.asp
Electricity generation by fuel
Natural gas
Hydro
Biofuels & waste
Geothermal/solar/wind
For more detailed data, please consult our on-line data service at http://data.iea.org.
Nuclear
0
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
5 000 000
© OECD/IEA 2011
GWh
Global electricity growth - Europe
Australian electricity …
Data ABARES
Australian electricity consumption 2012…
Australian electricity consumption 2012…
Data AEMO
Rapid change
- Personal mobility
Private transport
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Fuel efficiency, other energy sources
Transport
Energy storage key
New technologies may be disruptive
Electric mass transit
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Siemens Bordeaux
light rail
Bombardier wireless
light rail
Slim Ride -15 passengers
Series 700 Shinkansen
train – 285 km/h
Commercial
vehicles
Smith Newton
electric truck
Mega electric diesel hybrids
 London Bus
 Haul Pak + Earthmover
 Mitsubishi Fuso
 Honda prime mover
 Oshkosh Military Vehicle
Flying and floating fuels
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February 25, 2008 –
Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight
October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New
Synthetic Fuel on Plane
February 14, 2011 –
Qantas follows US Military to
algae biofuels
September 13, 2011 –
US Navy announces by 2016
Green Strike Group, powered
by renewable diesel-electric
engines, nuclear power and
aviation biofuels, is able to
operate independent of fossil
fuel supply line threat or disruption
Smart grids, smart houses (and farms)
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Integrated energy planning
Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as
loads & generators
Green cities
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Global
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Australia
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Tianjin Eco-City China
Ulsan Ecocity Korea
Masdar City UAE
City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030
City of Melbourne
Stirling City Centre, Perth
City of Fremantle
Yanchep – 2 x 100 000
Local government critical
Electricity pricing and renewables
Solar on Australian homes
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WA - 104 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 218 MW of solar capacity
Mandurah (postcode 6210) - over 5200 homes and 9.4 MW of capacity
Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode
6055) next two largest - similar numbers 3200 homes and 6.4 MW.
Solar on Australian homes
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WA - 104 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 218 MW of solar capacity
Mandurah (postcode 6210) - over 5200 homes and 9.4 MW of capacity
Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode
6055) next two largest - similar numbers 3200 homes and 6.4 MW.
Solar on
WA homes
City of Cockburn
Solar on your home
Solar on your home
Making solar
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Industry chamber for any businesses / enterprise in
sustainable energy or being more sustainable
Based in Perth, with around 350 members nationally
Information, communication, and networking businesses
Government advocacy (lobbying)
Policy development
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Legislation, regs and taxation - barriers and incentives
Education, skills and training
Calls for government leadership - and procurement
Industry mapping
Energising Kids – energy for the next generation
When the winds of change blow,
some people build walls
and others build windmills.
Chinese proverb
www.seaaus.com.au
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