PREVENTION OF HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS VIA PREDICTIONS OF FERTILIZER RUNOFF MA432 - 2014 ASSUMPTIONS Suppose there is a farm near a slow -moving body of water. The fertilizer runoff from the farm enters the slow moving body of water and becomes thoroughly mixed. The concentration of fertilizer in the water influences the occurrence of harmful algal blooms. Harmful algal blooms produce toxins which can cause death of organisms within the water in addition to death of organisms that drink from the water. MODEL DIAGRAM Compartment Model ASSUMPTIONS All water is uniformly distributed and there is thorough mixing of fertilizer runoff with the body of water. The volume of the body of water is constant. Thus, the inflows are equal to the outflow. The rate of fertilizer runoff is constant over time. Sunlight and temperature will be held constant. PROBLEM QUESTIONS What concentration of fertilizer will be sufficient to create harmful algal blooms? How much fertilizer/what type of fertilizer would be safe so as to prevent the growth of harmful algal blooms? How sensitive are the algal blooms to the nutrient levels (phosphorus, nitrogen)? How do the rates of evaporation and precipitation affect the concentration of nutrients in the water? DISCUSSION OF MODEL We are concerned with the concentration of nutrients at which a harmful amount of algal growth will occur. We are not concerned with the growth rate of the algae. In order to determine which nutrients play the largest role in harmful algal bloom growth, we will use sensitivity analysis juxtaposed with background research. The model can be modified to describe activity in different environments by varying the rates of runoff and of water inflow/outflow. MISSING Introduction to the problem What type of equations will be used Continuous / Discrete If Continuous ODE’s or PDE’s or algebraic model What model analysis do you propose to use Will you have any data to compare your model with?