ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables provide good news
Renewable power generation
42%
75%
27%
Average annual
growth in Solar PV
Cost reductions in
Solar PV in just
three years in
some countries
Average annual
growth in wind
Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
25
12%
6%
10
4%
5
4
3
2
2%
0
1986
Energy RD&D
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
South Africa
1982
Russia
1978
Mexico
1974
India
0%
China
0
1
Brazil
USD billion
15
2008 non-IEA country
spending
USD billion
8%
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
10%
20
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
Global electricity generation in the 2DS
45 000
Other
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass and waste
Oil
Gas with CCS
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
40 000
TWh
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Renewables will generate more than half the world’s
electricity in 2050 in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
5 000
100%
4 500
90%
4 000
80%
3 500
70%
2 500
2 000
13%
17%
Other
renewables
Other
renewables
Other
renewables
10%
Wind
Wind
Wind
21%
Generation share
TWh
3 000
4%
4%
28%
28%
7%
60%
Solar
Solar
Solar
9%
50%
40%
1 500
30%
1 000
20%
500
10%
0
0%
22%
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
13%
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
1%
53%
23%
Fossil
w CCS
Fossil
w CCS
Fossil w CCS
27%
7%
2%
4DS
2009
2009
10%
2009
Fossil
Fossil
w/ow/o
CCS CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
4DS
2DS 2DS
2050
2050 2050
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with
wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables growth in Europe continues but slows
TWh
OECD Europe forecast renewable generation
1 400
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Hydropower
Wind onshore
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Geothermal
Wind offshore
CSP
Ocean
2017
Despite policy adjustments and macroeconomic
situation, growth continues
© OECD/IEA 2012
All technologies have roles to play
Technology contributions to reaching the 2DS
60
Power generation efficiency
and fuel switching 3% (1%)
50
Nuclear 8% (8%)
Gt CO2
40
End-use fuel switching 12%
(12%)
30
End-use fuel and electricity
efficiency 42% (39%)
Renewables 21% (23%)
20
CCS 14% (17%)
10
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Nuclear is one piece of the puzzle
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas as a transitional fuel

Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the
2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
10 000
TWh

4DS
10 000
7 500
7 500
5 000
5 000
2 500
2 500
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
OECD
2050
2DS
0
2009
2020
2030
Non-OECD
2040
2050
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to
meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The CCS infant must grow quickly
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating & Cooling: the forgotten giant
Renewable heat
Integration with electricity
District heating and
cooling network
Co-generation
Surplus heat
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.
Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Global Passenger LDV sales (million)
Electric vehicles need to come of age
200
FCEV
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Translating targets into action
8
million sales/year
7
Manufacturers
production/sales
6
5
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2018
2020
2020
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel economy makes a difference
PLDV fuel consumption - WORLD
2500
10
8
6DS
6
Better FE
4
2
2010
2DS
2020
2030
2040
2050
[billion Lge/year]
[Lge/100km]
PLDV tested fuel economy WORLD
(new car average)
2000
1500
Better FE
1000
2DS(I/A/S
)
500
0
2010
6DS
equivalent to
11mbbl/day
reduction
2020
2030
2040
2050
Fuel economy improvements in conventional and hybrid
vehicles alone can save 11 mbbl/day.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
Additional investment
Additional
investment
Power
Industry
Transport
Fuel savings
Residential
Total savings
Commercial
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
Biomass
Coal
10%
Oil
- 120
- 80
- 40
0
40
USD trillion
Gas
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Sustainable future still in reach
Is a clean energy
transition urgent?
Are we on track to
reach a clean
energy future?
Can we get on
track?
YES ✓
NO ✗
YES ✓
© OECD/IEA 2012
For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012