Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Economic Impact Study Overview
• Study Objective
–
Establish the baseline economic impact of Lake Granbury-related activity
using as well as consider long-term implications of low lake levels
• Study Area
–
–
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Water Adjacent Property: properties immediately adjacent to Lake Granbury
Water View Property: border lake adjacent properties and within 250 ft of water
Lake-Related Activity: the combination of water adjacent and water view
• Key Questions
–
–
How important is Lake Granbury-related activity to Hood County?
Do any economic indicators show the impact of lower lake levels?
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Social Impacts of Water Shortages
Socioeconomic Impacts of Projected Water Shortages for the
Brazos G Regional Water Planning Area (Region G) 2011
“As the name implies, the effects of water shortages can be social
or economic. Distinctions between the two are both semantic and
analytical in nature – more so analytic in the sense that social
impacts are harder to quantify. Nevertheless, social effects
associated with drought and water shortages are closely tied to
economic impacts. For example, they might include…
–
–
–
–
demographic effects such as changes in population
mental and physical stress
loss of aesthetic and property values
reduced recreational opportunities”
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Five Lake-Related Economic Indicators
• Real Estate Activity & Property Values
–
evaluates the distribution of households and price premium paid for lakerelated properties
• Employment & Labor Force
– considers the distribution of jobs throughout the county by industry sector
• Lake-Related Taxable Hotel Revenue
– is the best indicator of water-related tourism
• Lake-Related Sales Tax Revenue
– serve as a proxy for how water-related tourism ripples through the economy
• Lake-Related Mixed Beverage Tax Revenue
– supplements other visitor datasets
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
1. Real Estate Activity & Property
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Cities & Census Designated Areas
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Hood County Property Values (2013)
Area
Accounts
Acres
% of Total
Taxable Value
% of Total
Water Adjacent
4,316
16,426
6.2%
$1,149,155,940
28.5%
Water View
2,883
1,559
0.6%
$298,057,411
7.4%
Lake-Related
6,036
17,985
6.8%
$1,447,213,351
35.9%
37,433
248,311
93.2%
$2,581,871,485
64.1%
Rest of Hood County
• In 2013, lake-related properties were approximately 6.8 percent of total
land area but 35.9 percent of the tax base
• Lake-related single-family homes are 28.5 percent of net taxable value
• Between 2012 and 2013, the taxable value of lake-related properties
declined 2.7 percent versus Rest of Hood decline of 1.6 percent
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Average Taxable Value per Single-Family Home
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Water Adjacent
$240,486
$244,242
$243,454
$246,931
$238,111
Water View
$136,529
$136,076
$135,416
$134,408
$129,843
Lake-Related
$211,671
$214,370
$213,563
$215,775
$207,932
Rest of Hood County
$103,014
$103,759
$102,562
$101,583
$101,209
Area
Estimated Hood County Property Tax Revenue
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Water Adjacent
$714.46
$725.62
$723.28
$733.61
$707.41
Water View
$405.62
$404.27
$402.31
$399.31
$385.75
Lake-Related
$628.86
$636.87
$634.48
$641.05
$617.75
Rest of Hood County
$306.05
$308.26
$304.70
$301.79
$300.68
Area
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Average Taxable Value (2013) of Residential
Properties Built between 2000 and 2012
New Lake-Related Homes
2.5 x more $ than Rest of Hood
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
MLS Residential Sales from January 1 - July 18
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
2. Employment & Labor Force
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
3. Taxable Hotel Receipts
Year
Water
Adjacent
Water
View
LakeRelated
Hood
County
Lake-Related
as % of Total
2008
$1,856,832
$654,112
$2,510,944
$8,650,796
29.0%
2009
$2,712,107
$437,132
$3,149,239
$7,013,733
44.9%
2010
$3,052,213
$409,649
$3,461,862
$7,042,405
49.2%
2011
$3,290,168
$342,009
$3,632,177
$8,239,926
44.1%
2012
$3,069,122
$338,568
$3,407,690
$7,702,918
44.2%
-6.7%
-1.0%
-6.2%
-6.5%
N/A
Change 11-12
• Hotel occupancy revenue generated by Hood County businesses more
than doubled since 2000, from $3.6 million in 2000 to $7.7 million in 2012
• Lake-related lodging facilities generate approximately 44.2 percent of
taxable hotel receipts in Hood County
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Total Tourism Spending By Year (Hood County)
Category
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Spending ($M)
$67.5
$57.3
$55.0
$60.4
$61.8
Earnings ($M)
$15.6
$14.6
$13.4
$14.3
$14.4
Employment
596
541
496
535
515
Local Tax Revenue ($M)
$1.2
$1.0
$0.9
$1.0
$1.0
State Tax Revenue ($M)
$4.0
$3.6
$3.4
$3.6
$3.7
Hotel Occupancy
51.0%
35.4%
34.3%
43.6%
43.2%
Est. Room Rate
$95.52
$86.88
$77.68
$74.57
$72.39
Local Tax Receipts
Tax receipts collected by counties and municipalities, as levied on
applicable travel-related purchases, including lodging, food and beverage
service, retail goods and auto rental. Property taxes are not included.
State Tax Receipts
The state hotel/motel tax, sales tax, motor fuel tax and business franchise
tax receipts attributable to travel expenditures.
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Total Tourism Spending By Year (City of Granbury)
Category
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Spending ($M)
$54.7
$44.0
$39.6
$44.2
$42.9
Earnings ($M)
$12.9
$11.5
$10.0
$10.8
$10.4
Employment
497
428
371
407
374
Local Tax Revenue ($M)
$1.1
$0.9
$0.7
$0.8
$0.8
State Tax Revenue ($M)
$3.2
$2.7
$2.4
$2.6
$2.5
Hotel Occupancy
50.6%
36.2%
34.2%
43.2%
42.7%
Est. Room Rate
$96.14
$87.48
$79.97
$77.52
$76.40
Local Tax Receipts
Tax receipts collected by counties and municipalities, as levied on
applicable travel-related purchases, including lodging, food and beverage
service, retail goods and auto rental. Property taxes are not included.
State Tax Receipts
The state hotel/motel tax, sales tax, motor fuel tax and business franchise
tax receipts attributable to travel expenditures.
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
4. Lake-Related Sales Tax Revenue
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Sales Tax Revenue by Subarea
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Hood County Sales Tax Revenue (@ 0.5%)
Downtown
North of
377
South of
377
Hood
County
LakeRelated as
% of Total
$628,323
$210,285
$313,565
$2,219,647
$4,594,667
13.7%
2009
$615,550
$213,645
$300,522
$2,091,166
$3,236,229
19.0%
2010
$627,599
$222,944
$284,411
$2,065,621
$2,989,420
21.0%
2011
$621,681
$228,883
$283,522
$2,095,517
$3,120,458
19.9%
2012
$608,096
$238,381
$326,836
$2,415,277
$3,877,007
15.7%
-0.7%
2.5%
0.8%
1.7%
-3.3%
N/A
Year
LakeRelated
2008
CAGR 08-12
• Nearly 19.0 percent of all Hood County sales tax payers are lake-related
and generated $0.6 million in Hood County sales tax revenue in 2013
• Lake-related area was the only subarea to decline between 2011 and 2012
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
5. Mixed Beverage Taxable Sales
Year
Water
Adjacent
Water
View
LakeRelated
Hood
County
Lake-Related
as % of Total
2008
$729,156
$2,040,633
$2,769,789
$6,193,814
44.7%
2009
$507,356
$1,784,751
$2,292,107
$5,505,025
41.6%
2010
$520,928
$1,782,703
$2,303,631
$5,373,156
42.9%
2011
$800,887
$1,725,519
$2,526,406
$5,954,200
42.4%
2012
$740,228
$1,853,800
$2,594,028
$6,054,608
42.8%
-7.6%
7.4%
2.7%
1.7%
N/A
Change 11-12
• Approximately 30.8 percent of all mixed beverage permit holders are within
250 feet of Lake Granbury
• Lake-related MB permit holders capture 42.8 percent of spending
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Texas State Data Center Population Forecast
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Undeveloped Land Surrounding Lake Granbury
• Hood County’s population growth in driven by in-migration
(people moving to Hood County from outside of the region)
• The natural increase in population is effectively flat so it is
imperative that the region continue to attract new residents
• Approximately 27.9 percent of all single-family homes in Hood
County are lake-related
• Since 2000, nearly 24.1 percent of single-family homes built were
lake-related.
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Undeveloped Land Surrounding Lake Granbury
• Low lake levels would likely impact no more than 25 percent of
future residential growth
• The natural increase in population is effectively flat so it is
imperative that the region continue to attract new residents
• Approximately 6,100 acres of undeveloped land around Lake
Granbury
• Lake-related undeveloped property (land that is within 250 feet of
the lake) accounts for roughly 1,500 acres
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Undeveloped Land Surrounding Lake Granbury
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Undeveloped Land Surrounding Lake Granbury
New
Households
Acres
Developed
Taxable Value
($2013)
Hood County
Property Tax
0.5 Scenario
1,402
751
$269,775,216
$801,478
1.0 Scenario
3,391
1,817
$652,420,219
$1,938,282
Scenario
• Lake-related property values could increase between $269.8
million and $652.4 million over the next 30 years
• This would translate into additional Hood County property tax
revenue between $0.8 million and $1.9 million per year
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Hood County – Lake Granbury Study
Report Findings
• Proximity to water has a clear impact on key elements of the local
economy:
– tourism-related activity
– property values
– tax revenue
• Prolonged low lake levels undermines both:
– lake is a key visitor attractor – fewer visitors means less jobs, income, and
local sales, lodging, and mixed beverage revenue
– housing values also decline if the water amenity is damaged – could have an
impact on relocation, second homes, etc.
• Translation of above is a negative impact on the local economy, as
well as lower tax revenue for all local jurisdictions
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