Using
FORIN
Experiences with
FORIN Narratives
Research Objectives
• Objective #1: To enhance the FORIN approach for application to
the category of gradual hazards represented by changing climate
“normals” in a manner that is consistent with the current application
of FORIN to discrete extreme events.
• Objective #2: To operationalize the framework in a preliminary
multi-sectoral scoping process to develop FORIN narratives for
Metro Manila, a coastal city at risk to climate change and extreme
weather events.
• Objective #3: To connect the critical factors and feedbacks
contributing to climate change and disaster risk and resilience
across all the sectors in a preliminary systems model of Metro
Manila.
Research Outputs
• In response to Objective #1: Framework/guidelines for
harmonizing the FORIN approach for CCA as well as
DRM.
• In response to Objective #2: Sectoral and integrated
preliminary CCA-DRM FORIN narratives for Metro Manila.
• In response to Objective #3: Preliminary multi-sectoral
causal diagram as the structure for a systems model of
Metro Manila.
Challenge in using FORIN:
Focus on discrete hazard events;
Focus on DRM rather than CCA
Context:
Emphasis on Climate change Adaptation (CCA) –
Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Mainstreaming
“We want to produce CCA-DRRM compliant
LGUs with enhanced CCA-DRRM mainstreaming
capacity” - Local Government Academy
Executive Director Marivel Sacendoncillo
DRM and CCA:
Points of Convergence and Difference
Climate Change Adaptation:
Disaster Risk Management
Reduce risk to:
Gradual changes in
climatic parameters
Sea level rise
Changes in
mean
temperature
Reduce risk to:
Extreme weather events
with increased
frequency and severity
Changes in
precipitation
patterns
Climate- and
weather-related
events
Direct connection
Geophysical
events
Ecological
events
Other events (e.g.
technological,
terrorism)
Hazards that are
associated with extreme
events
Hazards that are
associated with changing
climate “normals”
Gotangco 2012, adapted from Gotangco Castillo 2007; thanks also to IRDR FORIN Faculty Dr. Alan Lavell
Rationale for CCA-DRM FORIN:
• Need for a clear and holistic framework and approach to
CCA in the same way as we have the FORIN approach
for DRM.
• Allow for analysis of common variables that affect risk and
resilience to both climate change and disaster impacts.
• Identify factors related to disaster risk (climate change) that can
influence vulnerabilities to long-term climate changes (rapid onset
extreme weather events).
• Facilitate the CCA-DRM research and planning process to apply
one integrative framework to the investigation and targeting of risk
drivers.
What we did to integrate CCA-DRM into
FORIN…
• Adapted hypotheses, objectives and templates
• New guide questions (generic and sectoral)
• Revised conceptual framework
• Highlighted transformational aspect, recognizing
indicators of both process and outcomes that can be
traced
• Suggested list of indicators by sector (risk indicators, M&E
indicators)
Research/Knowledge
 Risk Assessment
o H, E, V
o Past, Present, &
Projected
 Including
indigenous/traditional
knowledge




Capacity Building
Communication
Understanding & Awareness
Governance (top-down laws
& policies)
Community-based strategies
(bottom-up actions)
Inter-sectoral,
Multi-Stakeholder,
& Transdisciplinary
Approach
Outcomes




Risk Reduction
Enhancing Resilience
Building Adaptive Capacity
Transformational Change
Sustainable
Development
• The starting point for incorporating CCA with DRM in the
FORIN approach was the recognition that risk can stem
from discrete events as well as from gradual or
continuous changes.
• Conceptually straightforward but operationally
challenging: problem of detection and attribution.
• The “fingerprint” of historical gradual changes in climatic
normals and their associated evolution of risks is difficult
to detect in the midst of intervening factors and data
issues.
Challenge in using FORIN:
Operationalizing Trans- and
Inter-disciplinarity
Sectors
• Physical
• Dr. Gemma Narisma (MO/ADMU-Physics), Dr. Celine Vicente (MO)
• Social
• Dr. Emma Porio, Emily Roque, John Paul Dalupang and Justin See
(ADMU-Socio-Anthro)
• Economic
• Dr. Ramon Clarete (UP Economics), Randy Tuano (ADMUEconomics), Joey Sescon (ADMU-Economics)
• Health
• Dr. John Wong (ADMU-Health), Dr. Sio Marquez (ADMU-Health)
General Narrative Outline
I.
Approach
• Framework and Approach to CCA-DRM FORIN in Sector
• Interfaces with Other Sectors
II.
Application to Metro Manila
• Contextualization
• Evolution of Risk in Metro Manila
III.
Conclusions and Recommendations
• How to encourage inter-/trans- and not just multi-
disciplinarity?
• Need for levelling-off of sectoral approaches and
perspectives and reconcile differences in paradigms and
terminologies among the different sectors.
• Having different perspectives can itself be a strength in
building a more holistic picture of the issues at hand.
However, more time and deeper involvement among
participants are required to evolve a methodology that is
truly integrative and collaborative.
Challenge in using FORIN:
Defining the scope of a “narrative”
(vs. Longitudinal Analysis)
Strengths/Benefits of FORIN:
“Long view”
“Out of the Box [Sector]” Thinking
Analysis of connections and
feedbacks
treatment capacity
and coverage
+
population/industries
+
volume of
wastewater generated
volume of WW treated
-
+
volume of
untreated WW
+
pollution load in
water bodies
surface water quality
+
+
transport of
sediments,solid waste,
and other pollutants
FLOOD HAZARD = f(Volume of water, Surface water quality)
+
tropical cyclone
dilution
+
rainfall
+
MOVEMENT OF WATER
input from other
water bodies
evaporation
rate
+
overland flow
+ evaporation
water entering
the drains
+
+
+
water stored in soil
surface run-off
(PLUVIAL FLOOD)
+
+
+
+
flow of seawater to
river and land
+
+
+
++
sea hydraulic head
+
water overflowing
from
rivers (FLUVIAL
FLOOD)
+
-
total available
unbuilt land
transported
sediments & solid
waste
river channel capacity
-
seaward flow of water
+
+
sediments & solid
waste deposited
+
decay
decay rate
+
-
+
dredging
growth
+
+
+
physical structures
along rivers
-
+
land subsidence
sediment velocity
water in aquifer
+
absorbed solar radiation
+
groundwater extraction
groundwater recharge
air temperature
local temperature
+ +
+
UHI effect
global mean temp
+
storm surge
wind
+
landward flow of
seawater
aquifer hydraulic head
+
fraction of built-up area
+
built-up area
+
tide levels (+/-)
+
+
-
construction
growth rate
+
global sea level rise
+
height of water in rivers
soil porosity
via leakage to
unconfined aquifers
<tropical cyclone>
-
+
+
flow of water to sea
water volume in rivers
+
+
river-land
hydraulic head
pumping
<rainfall>
salt content of
groundwater
groundwater quality
Josol & Gotangco. The feasibility of developing a physical hazard index model for climate
change adaptation and disaster risk management (CCA-DRM) using a system dynamics
approach: Case of Metro Manila, Philippines. Submitted to Natural Hazards.
commercial and
industrial wastewater
SANITATION AND
SEWERAGE (capacity to
manage human waste)
WATER ACCESSIBILITY
(water consumed with
respect to demand)
domestic
wastewater
(effluent)
domestic
wastewater
(influent)
POLLUTION LOAD/ WATER
QUALITY (capacity to manage
wastewater in relation to the quality
of the receiving water body)
PHYSICAL
SERVICES INDEX
water supply
organic load from
uncollected waste
rainfall
FLOOD
HAZARD INDEX
floodwater quality and
access to potable water
production
capacity
WATER AVAILABILITY (efficient
use of surface water supply and
sustainability of groundwater)
water demand
extractable
groundwater, available
surface water
WATER BALANCE (long-term
availability of groundwater as a
function of land-use and rainfall)
MUNICIPAL SOLID
WASTE (capacity to
manange solid waste)
flood volume (excess
run-off and conveyance
capacity)
waste generation
available surfaces
for infiltration
URBAN GROWTH
(population and changes in
surface characteristics)
fdasf
groundwater recharge volume,
availability of surface water
including those that are in
reservoirs
FORIN in Other Projects…
**What is IRIACC-CCaR?
• IRIACC-CCaR is a 5-year program involving in-depth
studies of coastal megacities in Canada, Thailand, Nigeria
and the Philippines.
• CCaR aims to:
• Develop and advance the knowledge base of CCA-DRRM of
coastal megacities. This knowledge base will help us adapt to and
cope with the effects of climate change.
• Develop strategies and methodologies for CCA-DRRM
• Enhance practitioner and academic capacity and transfer
knowledge
**IRIACC-CCaR: Development of a “City System
Dynamics Risk Simulator” as a decision-making tool
• Determination of sources of
vulnerability and resilience
• Social
• Economic
• Health
• Physical
• Organizational
• Evaluation of adaptation
options
• Land use, urbanization
scenarios
• Risk communication policies
** Environmental History
• ARC Linkage Grant under James Warren of Murdoch
University, with Dr. Gealogo of Ateneo - History
• Long history of Indo-Pacific region
• Focus on interactions of human environment with socioeconomic, political, cultural developments
• How these affect experience of disasters…
**Environmental Communication
• With Dr. Ponce de Leon of Ateneo Dept. of
Communication, funded by Commission of Higher
Education
• Analysis of reception and perception of scientific
information during extreme rainfall events
• How do contexts influence non/use of scientific
information?
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
This project of the MANILA OBSERVATORY was supported by a grant to conduct follow-on research
from the 2012 Advanced Institute on Forensic Investigations of Disasters (FORIN). Funding for
participant follow-on research and this project was provided by ICSU and the US National Science
Foundation Grant Number 0627839. The International START Secretariat is the implementing agency.
The 2012 Advanced Institute on FORIN was organized by START and the IRDR International Centre of
Excellence (ICoE) in Taipei, together with IRDR International, ICSU and Taiwan's National Science and
Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR). Funding for the Institute was provided from ICSU.