Tokyo, 5 September 2012
Bo Diczfalusy, Director, Directorate of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology
Markus Wråke, ETP Project Leader, Head of Energy Supply Technology Unit
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS
a vision of a sustainable
energy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
4DS
reflecting pledges by
countries to cut
emissions and boost
energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
6DS
where the world is now
heading with potentially
devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry
Industry
Buildings
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables provide good news
Renewable power generation
42%
75%
27%
Average annual
growth in Solar PV
Cost reductions in
Solar PV in just
three years in
some countries
Average annual
growth in wind
Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
12%
25
6%
10
4%
5
4
3
2
2%
1
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Energy efficiency
Fossil fuels
Renewable energy
Nuclear
Hydrogen and fuel cells
Other power and storage technologies
Other cross cutting technologies/research
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
South Africa
1986
Russia
1982
Mexico
1978
India
1974
China
0
0%
0
Brazil
USD billion
15
2008 non-IEA country
spending
USD billion
8%
Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
10%
20
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation
Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat
EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
Global electricity generation in the 2DS
45 000
Other
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass and waste
Oil
Gas with CCS
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
40 000
TWh
35 000
30 000
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Renewables will generate more than half the world’s
electricity in 2050 in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables grow in Japan but uncertainty is high
TWh

Drivers:




Uncertainties about nuclear
restart
New feed-in tariffs
Good match of solar PV for
shaving peak load
Challenges:



Power system fragmentation
Relatively high capital costs of
renewable energy
Location of wind and
geothermal resources far
from demand centres
Japan forecast renewable generation
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Hydropower
Bioenergy
Solar PV
Wind onshore
Geothermal
Wind offshore
Japan power generation by share, 2011
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
IEA MRMR report
2010
Jan 11
Nuclear
Mar 11
May 11
Combustible Fuels
Jul 11
Sep 11
Hydro
Nov 11
Other
© OECD/IEA 2012
Power generation; Nuclear
Installed capacity
Nuclear deployment by 2025 will be below levels required to achieve
the 2DS objectives after the Fukushima accident although the vast majority
of countries remain committed to its use.
©
© OECD/IEA
OECD/IEA 2012
2012
Natural gas as a transitional fuel

Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the
2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
10 000
TWh

4DS
10 000
7 500
7 500
5 000
5 000
2 500
2 500
0
2009
2020
2030
2040
OECD
2050
2DS
0
2009
2020
2030
Non-OECD
2040
2050
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to
meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
© OECD/IEA 2012
The CCS infant must grow quickly
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
© OECD/IEA 2012
Heating & Cooling: the forgotten giant
Renewable heat
Integration with electricity
District heating and
cooling network
Co-generation
Surplus heat
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.
Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
End-use energy efficiency is critical
In the Japanese buildings sector, reduced electricity demand
and power decarbonisation are key to achieve the 2DS.
Global Passenger LDV sales (million)
Electric vehicles need to come of age
200
FCEV
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel economy makes a difference
PLDV tested fuel economy - Japan
(new car average, JC08eq.)
PLDV fuel consumption -
8
50
Japan Target
6
6DS
4
Better FE
2
2DS(I/A/S)
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
[Billion Lge/year]
[Lge/100km]
10
Japan
40
6DS
30
Better FE
20
2DS(I/A/S)
10
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Fuel economy improvements in conventional and hybrid vehicles
alone can reduce fuel consumption by one third in 2050.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Alternative fuels are essential
90 % of sales in Japan in 2050 should be an electrically
driven car with low carbon electricity and hydrogen
© OECD/IEA 2012
Translating targets into action
8
million sales/year
7
Manufacturers
production/sales
6
5
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
Projection
(Estimated from
each country's
target)
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2018
2020
2020
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
Additional investment
Additional
investment
Power
Industry
Transport
Fuel savings
Residential
Total savings
Commercial
Undiscounted
Fuel savings
Biomass
Coal
10%
Oil
- 120
- 80
- 40
0
40
USD trillion
Gas
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
Sustainable future still in reach
Is a clean energy
transition urgent?
Are we on track to
reach a clean
energy future?
Can we get on
track?
YES ✓
NO ✗
YES ✓
© OECD/IEA 2012
For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012