INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR
GAMBLING AND GAMING
PROF. DR. DR. PEREN
ASSESSMENT TOOL TO MEASURE AND
EVALUATE THE RISK POTENTIAL OF
GAMBLING PRODUCTS
Agenda
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Pathological gambling
Development of ASTERIG
Risk potential criteria. The ten dimensions
Weights of the dimensions
Score
Classification
Visualization
Example
Conclusion
Future directions
2013-10-01
Copyright Prof. Dr. Dr. Peren. All rights reserved.
2
1. Pathological gambling
Some individuals develop a recurrent, maladaptive pattern of gambling behavior, called
pathological gambling. It is associated with financial losses, disruption of family and
interpersonal relationships and co-occurring psychiatric disorders.
ASTERIG = assessment tool to measure and to evaluate the risk potential
of any gambling product
 Gambling products have different risk potentials.
 Availability of an objective, systematic tool to assess the risk potential of
different gambling products.
 Help medical and psychological scientists, lawyers, judges, policy-makers
assess the risk potential and allow objective comparison.
2013-10-01
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3
2. Development of ASTERIG
 Developed in Germany in 20062010.
 Global Development under
the head of the Columbia
University, USA in 2011-2012.
 Validated and updated globally
by international leading experts.
 International leading experts
refined and enhanced the
instrument.
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Experts
Country
Institution
Carlos Blanco
USA
Department of Psychiatry Columbia University,
New York State Psychiatric Institute
Alex Blaszczynski
AUS
University of Sydney, School of Psychology
Reiner Clement
GE
Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University, Department of
Business
Jeffrey Derevensky
CAN
McGill University, International Centre for
Youth Gambling Problems and High Risk
Behaviors
Anna E. Goudriaan
NL
University of Amsterdam, Academic Medical
Center
David C. Hodgins
CAN
Ruth J. van Holst
NL
Ángela Ibáñez
ESP
Alcala University, Department of Psychiatry,
Ramon y Cajal Hospital
Silvia S. Martins
USA
Columbia University, Mailman School of Public
Health
Chantal Moersen
GE
Charité Berlin
Sabrina Molinaro
I
CNR - Istituto di Fisiologia Clinica Sezione di
Epidemiologia Pisa
Adrian Parke
UK
University of Lincoln
Franz W. Peren
GE
Bonn-Rhein-Sieg University, Department of
Business
Nancy M. Petry
USA
University of Connecticut, Health Center
Heather Wardle
UK
National Centre for Social Research
Copyright Prof. Dr. Dr. Peren. All rights reserved.
University of Calgary, Department of Psychology
University of Amsterdam, Academic Medical
Center
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3. Risk potential criteria
Ten dimensions (parameters) provide a useful framework to
examine the risk potential of different gambling products.
The dimensions are provided with scales:
- Higher score indicate higher risk potential.
- Scales: modified, standardized, symmetric.
- Scales between 0 (of no importance) and
10 (of very great importance).
2013-10-01
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The ten dimensions
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Event frequency
Interval of payback
Jackpot
Continuity of playing
Chance of winning a profit
Availability
Multiple playing-/ stake opportunities
Variable stake amount
Sensory product design
Near wins
2013-10-01
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The ten dimensions
1. Event frequency
Unit of time between stake, gambling result and next stake opportunity.
> 6 days
0
> 24 hrs
> 1 hr
> 10 min
> 3 min
> 1 min
> 15 sec
> 5 sec
≤ 6 days
≤ 24 hrs
≤ 1 hr
≤ 10 min
≤ 3 min
≤ 1 min
≤ 15 sec
≤ 5 sec
1.25
2.5
3.75
5
6.25
7.5
8.75
10
2. Interval of payback
Period of time between gambling result and notification of payment or
actual receipt of payment.
> 6 days
0
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> 24 hrs
> 1 hr
> 10 min
> 3 min
> 1 min
> 15 sec
> 5 sec
≤ 6 days
≤ 24 hrs
≤ 1 hr
≤ 10 min
≤ 3 min
≤ 1 min
≤ 15 sec
≤ 5 sec
1.25
2.5
3.75
5
6.25
7.5
8.75
10
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The ten dimensions
3. Jackpot
An extraordinary top prize typically in the form of a large amount of money
formed by the accumulation of previous bets.
non
existent
≥0$
≥ 100 $
≥ 1.000 $
< 100 $
< 1.000 $
< 10.000 $
≥ 10.000 $
< 50.000
$
1.25
2.5
4
6
0
≥ 50.000 $
≥ 100.000 $
< 100.000
$
< 1 Mio. $
7.5
8.75
≥ 1 Mio.
$
10
4. Continuity of playing
Period of time during which it is possible to gamble without interruption.
≤ 5 min
of continuous
gambling
0
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> 5 min
> 30 min
> 1 hour
≤ 30 min
of continuous
gambling
≤ 1 hour
of continuous
gambling
≤ 3 hrs
of continuous
gambling
2.5
5
7.5
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> 3 hrs
of continuous
gambling
10
8
The ten dimensions
5. Chance of winning a profit
The probability of realizing a profit with each game.
>0%
≤ 0,1 %
1,25
0%
0
> 0,1 %
≤ 0,5 %
2.5
> 0,5 %
≤1%
4
>1%
≤5%
6
>5%
≤ 10 %
7.5
> 10 %
≤ 25
8,75
> 25%
10
6. Availability
Possibility of accessing gambling opportunities.
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Gambling
opportunities
within a
radius of >
100 km
Gambling
opportunities
within a radius
from
> 25 km to
≤ 100 km
Gambling
opportunities
within a radius
from
> 10 km to
≤ 25 km
Gambling
opportunities
within a
radius from
> 1 km to
≤ 10 km
Gambling
opportunities
within a radius
of
≤ 1 km
Gambling
opportunities
at home /
workplace
0
2.5
4
6
7.5
10
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The ten dimensions
7. Multiple playing-/ stake opportunities
Opportunity to play several stakes at the same time (e.g. betting on several
roulette numbers) or to take part in several gambling opportunities at the
same time.
no multiple playing
opportunity
and no multiple stake
opportunity
multiple playing opportunities
or multiple stake opportunities
multiple playing opportunities
and multiple stake
opportunities
0
5
10
8. Variable stake amount
Extent to which gamblers can choose or modify their stake amounts while
playing.
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no variable (= fixed)
stake amount
variable stake,
limited stake amount
variable stake,
unlimited stake amount
0
5
10
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The ten dimensions
9. Sensory product design
Auditory and visual effects.
non-existent
0
auditory or visual effects exist
5
auditory and visual effects exist
10
10. Near wins
Results when a gambler supposes to almost win (to miss the profit narrowly;
a near win).
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non-existent
un-intentionally created,
occurring by chance
0
5
intentionally created by
supplier/ producer,
occurring more frequently
than random
10
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Weights of the dimensions
 Some dimensions may be more important than others in increasing
the risk of potential of the gambling product.
 Experts were asked to assign weights for each parameter
regarding their risk potential.
 The weights were standardized:
- from 0 (of no importance) to 10 (of very high importance).
 Overall risk potential: multiplying the weight of each dimension by the
score on that dimension and adding up the weighted scores of all ten
dimensions.
- range from 0 (lowest) to 620 (highest).
2013-10-01
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5. Score
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6. Classificationof gambling products
Risk potential classification of gambling products into five
categories:
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7. Visualization
1. Scorecard
 Suitable for quantitative assessments
during the analysis of potentials and risks.
 For the estimation of product- and
performance-ideas.
 For the quantitative evaluation of
potential and risk analyses.
2. Bar diagram
 Analyse and compare the dimensions.
2013-10-01
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8. Example
„Bet-for-soccer“
(fictitious example)
 National league: 24 teams that play in 12 matches in different cities on
each Saturday.
 Simultaneous betting on all games allowed.
 For each match three outcomes (team A wins/ team B wins/ tie).
 Possible to bet all three outcomes at the same time.
 Chance of winning a profit and the amount of a possible profit depend
on the quotes.
 Minimum stake $1, maximum $100 per each match.
 No jackpot.
 Webpage: only visual effects.
2013-10-01
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Example
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Example
Risk potential: rated with a score of
approximately 5,97
(resulting by dividing the total score
370 by 62)
„bet-for-soccer“ : moderate in
tendency to high.

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Result
Score
Risk category
Risk potential
1 - 124
125 - 248
249 – 372
373 - 496
497 - 620
>0 - ≤2
>2 - ≤4
>4 -≤6
>6 - ≤8
> 8 - ≤ 10
A
B
C
D
E
lowest
low
moderate
high
highest
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Example
Score card showing the risk potential
of the fictitious sport betting game.
2013-10-01
Bar chart
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9.Conclusion
 ASTERIG measures the possible dimensions of risk potential
of gambling products on the basic of numeric scores.
 Allowes a comparison to be drawn between the addiction
potentials of different gambling products.
Hightlights where the specific risk potential of each specific
gambling product lie.
2013-10-01
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10. Future directions
 An indication of the classification of the risk potential of gambling
products could be placed on vouchers, in gambling locations or in
the computer screen.
 Visual display: Visualization of the possible risk for becoming
addicted.
 Access and compare risk potentials.
ASTERIG may help to provide a systematic, objective way to access
the risk potential of gambling products and contribute to develop
policies that balance access to gambling for entertainment with
minimizing the risk of gambling disorders.
2013-10-01
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Imprint
Prof. Dr. Dr. Franz W. Peren
Prof. Dr. Reiner Clement
Grantham-Allee 2-8
53757 Sankt Augustin • Germany
fon
fax
+49 (0) 3212 / 135 0946
+49 (0) 3212 / 135 0946
Thank you
for your attention
www.forschung-gluecksspiel.de
[email protected]
2013-10-01
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Measuring and Evaluating the Risk Potential of Gambling Products