Designed by
Michael Braito
Marianne Penker
CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
for
KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION
Put here your name,
details of the workshop,
etc.
Outline
1. Sustainable development by Knowledge
Integration
2. Knowledge Integration – Why and how?
3. The CROSS-IMPACT Analysis
Theoretical introduction
4. The Cross-Impact Analysis (Step 1 – 3)
Step 1: Defining the boundaries
Step 2: Identifying the driving forces
Step 3: Analysing the driving forces
08.04.2015
by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker
participatory
process
2
Thinking of tomorrow for a sustainable
development!
The delegates at the RIO+20 acknowledged the importance of
strengthening transdisciplinary cooperation in order to
enhance sustainable development.
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by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker
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Why is this so crucial for sustainable
development?
1. Each discipline is important!
2. Concentrating on one subject is
failing in seeing other aspects.
3. Learning from each other …
4. … to recognize the big picture.
Sustainable development
can only be reached if
human beings work
together.
KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION
• Decisions in the field of sustainable development have to be taken
in the context of uncertain and incomplete knowledge.
• A systematic integration of a range of research-informed
judgments, expertise from different disciplines and experiencebased knowledge is often the best way forward.
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Methods of Knowledge Integration
• In interdisciplinary research and transdisciplinary knowledge
“integration, the focus of the dialogue process is on a research
question and the process aims to enable the formation of a
combined judgment between the participants, with that judgment
being informed by the best research evidence” (McDonald et al. 2009).
• Several methods for dialogue/participatory processes exist (see
McDonald et al. 2009), for instance:
–
–
–
–
Citizens’ jury,
Conference,
Delphi technique,
Open space technology,
– CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS.
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KNOWLEDGE
INTEGRATION
WHY and HOW!?
The complexity of today and tomorrow
Our world, our socio-economic system is
changing rapidly and unpredictable.
A number of issues follow their own future
path, but
at the same time, they interact not only with
each other but with any number of …
macroeconomic
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regulatory
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The problem of limited points of views
• To analyse complex systems we reduce the
complexity.
• In doing this, we tend to stop gathering
detail and select one path forward that
seems the most likely one.
macroeconomic
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regulatory
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Knowledge Integration –
dealing with unknowns/uncertainties
• Integrating knowledge from different
disciplines helps “to sketch a broad spectrum
of possible development options” (Penker and
Wytrzens 2005).
• “A necessary adjunct to complexity is
uncertainty” (Bammer 2006, 98).
Knowledge Integration by the Cross-Impact Analysis supports to:
• capture the uncertainties,
• highlight the issues that may have a significant impact on
others, and
• to study the relationships between these critical issues.
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The
CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS I
“Cross-Impact methods are mostly used for analytical tasks which do
not allow the use of theory-based computational models due to their
disciplinary heterogeneity and the relevance of system knowledge, but
on the other hand are too complex for a purely argumentative systems
analysis” (Weimer-Jehle 2005, 334).
“This is a technique […], taking into account
the causality among relevant events, based on
experts’ judgments” (Hayashi 2006, 1064).
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CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS II
Fields of application
• If the problem requires cross discipline
analysis
• If a system/research question can only
be analysed qualitatively
Systematic approach
• Assessing the interdependencies of the
driving forces in pairs
• Production of a Cross-Impact matrix as a
system description (Weimer-Jehle 2010, 1)
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AIMS of the CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
•
Knowledge Integration (explicit scientific knowledge and implicit local
knowledge)
• Following the approach of ‘intuitive logics’ (Jungermann and Thuring 1987)
See the sense of complexity and ambiguity in terms of possibility and
plausibility.
• Exploring the interrelationships between multiple factors in terms of
cause/effect and chronology
Realise that the possibilities are not unlimited.
•
Not predicting the future, but understanding the present
• Developing an information framework for decision making
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AIM of System Intervention
• Initiate a process of understanding (future is unpredictable and
unknown).
• Highlight and understand possibilities for action (despite partial
uncertainty).
• Enhance openness for new ways instead of moving always on the
worn-out paths.
• Exercise to deal with the unknown, the unforeseeable.
• Identify different interests, assessments, expectations.
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Three steps for system analysis
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CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
STEP 1
Defining the boundaries
Boundaries of the analysed system
• Set the objectives.
• Define boundaries and establish focus.
• The objectives for the exemplary project should include
the following:
1. Thematic framework,
2. Time horizon, and
3. Geographical scope of the project/system.
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CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
STEP 2
Identifying the driving forces
What are ‘driving forces’?
• Driving forces are attributes of a system which are most relevant
at the present and cause changes in the system state over time
(e.g. social, economic, environmental, political, and technological).
• Main key factors facing the research topic
• Driving forces are NOT PROBLEMS
• Changes in society, politics, technology etc. are often the
symptoms of more fundamental transformations.
• Driving forces are indicating change, but should not indicate
direction or dimension.
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Methods to identify driving forces I
Identification of a MAXIMUM of 10-12 driving forces
Different methods exist:
• Systemic picture (all together or as a “World Café”)
• Brainstorming/Brainwriting by using cards
• etc.
Leading question:
Which factors are influencing the present and might have a
significant impact on the development of the exemplary system/
research question?
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Methods to identify driving forces II
Systemic picture
(all together or as a “World Café”)
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Methods to identify driving forces III
Brainstorming/Brainwriting
by using cards
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Feedback
Integrate scientific knowledge with participants’
knowledge
• Literature research
• Empirical research
– Field work
– Interviews
– Delphi Method
– etc.
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CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
STEP 3
Analysing the driving forces
Analysis of the driving forces by the
CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS
1. The Cross-Impact
MATRIX
2. The Cross-Impact
GRID
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What is the impact/influence of DF1 on DF2, …?
Impact
on
DF 1
DF 2
DF 3
DF 4
3
3
3
1
2
2
from
DF 1
DF 2
DF 3
DF 4
0
1
3
1
3
1
Passive sum PS
4
7
7
Active
sum AS
7
5
4
7
5
0 = no or weak
impact
If DF 1 changes strongly,
impact on DF 2 is very weak
2 = medium
impact
If DF 1 changes strongly,
impact on DF 2 is medium
1 = weak or
timely delayed
impact
If DF 1 changes strongly,
impact on DF 2 is very weak
3 = strong or
very strong
impact
If DF 1 changes strongly,
impact on DF 2B is
strong or very strong
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Identify the most active/passive driving forces
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Active respectively
impulsive driving
forces (high AS and
low PS)
the driving force has more impact on other driving forces and is
less influenced by other driving forces. Such driving forces are
called effective “levers” or “switches” if they are controllable
driving forces which can be steered.
Reactive respectively
passive driving forces
(high PS and low AS)
the driving force is more influenced by other driving forces and
has got less impact on other driving forces. These driving forces
are good indicators for the observation of a situation.
Critical respectively
dynamic driving
forces (high AS and
high PS)
the driving force is influenced strongly by other driving forces
but has a high impact on other driving forces as well. These
driving forces are linked to other driving forces and have to be
kept in focus.
Buffering respectively
slow driving forces
(low AS and low PS)
the driving force hardly influences other driving forces and
other driving forces have low impact on the driving force itself.
These driving forces are hardly linked with other driving forces
but rather isolated.
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The Cross-Impact GRID
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System analysis
Discussion of the most actively impacting and most passively
influenced driving forces.
Critical assessment by using the initial reasons for the different
judgements.
Key questions
• How do the driving forces interact?
• What impact do they have on other forces?
• Where and how can we intervene?
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Enjoy integrating knowledge
References
Bammer, G., 2006. Integration and Implementation Sciences: Building a New Specialisation. In Perez,
P. and Batten, D (eds.). Complex Science for a Complex World. Australia: ANU E Press, The
Australian National University Australia. 95-107.
Blanninga, R.W. and Reinig B.A., 1999. Cross-impact analysis using group decision support systems:
an application to the future of Hong Kong. Futures. 31. 39–56.
Hayashi, A., Tokimatsu, K., Yamamoto, H. and Mori, S., 2006. Narrative scenario development based
on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Applied Energy,
83, 1062–1075.
Jungermann, H. and Thuring, M. 1987. The use of mental models for generating scenarios. In Wright,
G. and Ayton, P. (eds.), Judgmental Forecasting. London: Wiley.
Maack, J. 2001. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers.
McDonald, D., Bammer, G. and Deane, P., 2009. Research IntegratIon using dialogue methods.
Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia.
Penker, M. and Wytrzens, H.K., 2005. Scenario for the Austrian food chain in 2020 and its landscape
impacts. Landscape and Urban Planning. 71. 175-189.
Weimer-Jehle, W. 2005. Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact
analysis. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 73, 334–361.
Weimer-Jehle, W. 2010. Introduction to qualitative systems and scenario analysis using cross-impact
balance analysis. Stuttgart, ZIRN.
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Institute for Sustainable Economic Development
Department of Economics and Social Sciences
BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna
Feistmantelstr. 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria
http://www.wiso.boku.ac.at/2797.html?&L=1
Michael Braito
Expertise
• Environmental economics and environmental
policy
• Sustainable development
• Rural development
• Optimisation and valuation of managerial
processes
• Analysis and economic valuation of societal
processes
Marianne Penker
Expertise
• Rural development
• Implementation Research
• Property Rights
• Rural Governance
• Landscape Governance
• Conservation and Environmental Policy